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1 Highlighted Bet 



Highlighted Bet


Cheltenham 1.50
 
£4.00 Each Way MASTER TOMMYTUCKER 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet GOOD BOY BOBBIE  9/1

£1.00 Win Bet WINDSOR AVENUE 9/1

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5


6 Places Hills Skybet PPower
Avoid 4 places with Bet365
Betfair exchange has markets
That offer both 5 and 6 places
The bet goes down as 5 places






Today's Message 


Mainly Cheltenham today
Several of the other cards
Are very restrictive and dull

There is a narrower choice
Than we were offered Friday



7 Previews

Cheltenham 12.05
Hereford 1.22
Cheltenham 1.50
Cheltenham 2.25
Cheltenham 3.00
Cheltenham 3.35
Newcastle 4.00

 


MASTER TOMMYTUCKER 8/1

Made a case for him midweek
It was based on an class angle

One of the big decisions today
Do we commit to him for a bet
Knowing his profile is flawed
Or do we go elsewhere for one


This is the only other race
I could have staked today


Cheltenham 3.35

MIAH GRACE 7/2-4/1

Each Way


Down to 8 runners now
Not everyone will get 4/1
So turned this race down


Today's Bet


Cheltenham 1.50
 
£4.00 Each Way MASTER TOMMYTUCKER 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet GOOD BOY BOBBIE  9/1

£1.00 Win Bet WINDSOR AVENUE 9/1


Some will take the view
He will either win or come down
Maybe but not sure about that
I like that we are getting 5 places

The bottom line is

Nobody knows how he will run
How he takes to this kind of race

If he handles it

You could see something special
This could be a Denman revisited
He may even win the Ryanair chase

On the downside
There is a chance he wont cope
And then anything can happen 

His Critics


Are being too hasty after 7 chases
Have already Pidgeon holed him

His Chase debut was a listed race
His 2 early falls were in Grade 1-2
Could be improving fast right now

With the disclaimer
Than the downside is easy to see

I do think we could see a big star
Who is about to run this lot ragged

Whatever hapens

We will be back on Sunday

No irish cards tomorrow

Will be a bit threadbare






Friday's Review  
 
Better choice + better message
The highlighted bet was placed
That 1-2-3-4 placing was helpful
Vital in fact as he ran a bad race
Missed the break was below form
But still managed to save stakes
A loser would have been unfair
The rest of it was all good stuff
We were dominant at Cheltenham
Breffniboy was a decent winner
Storm Control then followed that
Knew I had staked that race well
Come On Teddy another winner
One of the best staked messages
I have done in quite a long time
5 Winners 3 places in the 9 races
The Cross Country our only loser
Big confidence boosting message
But we have to change a dynamic
That renders early week useless





PROFILES & PREVIEWS
 
  


Cheltenham 12.05

2/1 Adagio, 3/1 Son Of Red, 7/2 Elham Valley
7/1 Shake A Leg, 10/1 Simply True, 14/1 Pawpaw
16/1 Camouflaged, 25/1 Blue Slate, Historic Heart.

3yo Hurdle

Complicated race
There is a best profile horse
But a few clear dangers

ELHAM VALLEY being one
Winning 7 days ago is unusual
But if that works as a positive
You would have to respect him

SHAKE A LEG is resistible 
Not keen on his sire Excelebration
He has bred some hurdle winners
But all 24 his age have been beaten
Not for me as a hurdling debutant
SIMPLY TRUE rejected as similar
A hurdling debutant sired by Camacho

We backed last years winner
And several before that as well
Based on the following profile

Best Profile

Horses from Cheltenham
Graded trial race 4 weeks ago
Finishing 1st 2nd 3rd in that race
Have a brilliant 9-11 record
The 2 that did not win were 2nd

They won the race in these years
2005 2006 2009 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017 2019
ADAGIO shares this 9-11 profile
 
ADAGIO should be the selection
But he is a short priced favourite
ELHAM VALLEY is my danger
Do we want to have a saver bet
Reduce the risk for a shorter price
I am going to do that in this race
 
Selection

£5 Win Bet ADAGIO 11/10-5/4

£5 Place Bet ELHAM VALLEY 10/11






Hereford 1.22

2/1 Kapga De Lily, 5/1 Still Believing
6/1 Ballybough Nora, No No Juliet, 8/1 Arqalina
8/1 Liffeydale Dreamer, 16/1 Miss Zip, Prettylittlething
16/1Silent Steps, Tb Broke Her.

Mares handicap Chase 3m 1f

Not easy to sort

Venetia Williams runs 2

KAPGA DE LILY
ARQALINA

Thought it was quite interesting
Based on matched bets on betfair 
ARQALINA has 3 times as much money
Put on her compared to her stablemate
Can we assume she is the 2nd string ?

ARQALINA is not my kind of bet
Comes from the low part of the weights
And if you look at her sire Arcano
She has never bred a winner over 3m +
SILL BELIEVING is now 12 years old
Happy to look elsewhere given her age
I don't want to risky any horse
Hammered on their first run this year
NO NO JULIET has this profile
Beaten 34 lengths on seasonal debut
Will improve and she ran very well
LIFFEYDALE DREAMER could pop up
But 5 year olds are not the best age

The best fit
Seems to be unexposed 7 year olds
Who have runs this season
And were not hammered last time
KAPGA DE LILY has this profile
Don't have a major problem with her
Even if one of the Venetia horses
BALLYBOUGH NORA has this profile
Best age and has quite a nice blend
Unexposed but with experience
Career best figures last time out

Going to split stake this
With 2 horses from the same race

Selection

£6 Win Bet BALLYBOUGH NORA 6/1

£4 Place Bet NO NO JULIET 11/8 +





Cheltenham 1.50

6/1 Master Tommytucker, 7/1 Al Dancer, 7/1 Cepage
8/1 Windsor Avenue, 8/1 Coole Cody, 12/1 Midnight Shadow
12/1 Musical Slave, Saint Sonnet, 14/1 Chatham Street Lad
14/1 Good Boy Bobby, Romain De Senam, Southfield Stone
16/1 Champagne Mystery, Huntsman Son, 20/1 Annie Mc
20/1 Benatar, 33/1 Drumconnor Lad, 33/1 Militarian
40/1 Ibis Du Rheu.
 
Caspian Caviar Gold Cup
 
Sent statistics mid week 

We discussed a class issue

MASTER TOMMYTUCKER

He is the topweight
That could be a real problem
For a horse with no track form
But if we can get CEPAGE beat
AL DANCER could be the saver
Meaning the class horses here
Only face a 0-148 class field

CEPAGE is an 8yo debutant
His type seem to keep losing

October November December
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class
Over 6 runners  
Any Distance since 2008 
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 8 weeks
Have a 0-115 record since then

November December
Graded Handicap Chases
Any track
Any distance
Over 6 runners  
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 8 weeks
Have a 0-107 record in them
CEPAGE fails this statistic
BENATAR fails this as well

CEPAGE fails another angle
If he wins I will be embarrassed
As I am chucking bobs at him

Go back to 2004
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Any time of year
Any distance
Any class of race

Every Horse
Absent over 7 weeks
Having over 10 chase runs
Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
Have an overall 1-133 record
CEPAGE shares this miserable record
 
One of them will pop up soon
We can not get them all beaten
But until they do I'd avoid them
As 8yo debutants are toxic

CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY is out
He is just absent too long 

Opposing the 10 year olds
MILITARIAN older than past winners
HUNTSMAN SON is rejected aged 10
DRUMCONNOR LAD is a 10yo
He fails the following statistic

November + December
Handicap Chases over 2m 3f +
Listed and Graded class
Any distance
Any track since 2010
Horses from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a 0-60 record in them
ROMAIN DE SENAM fails this
CHATAM STREET LAD fails this

The last 17 winners of this
Came from 2m 3f or more last time
Neither horse is doing that here

ROMAIN DE SENAM is exposed
With as many as 27 chase runs
Past winners had the following
5 20 15 5 7 24 5 3 6 12 7 9 6
9 9 8 7 13 8 9 19 9 14 13 22 
He has more than all of them

SAINT SONNET is 5 years old 
The last 5yo winner was 1966
ANNIE MC is a 6yo
Needed better last time out

SOUTHFIELD STONE is a 7yo
Well beaten in a Novice chase
Big ask to come out and win this

MIDNIGHT SHADOW is a 7yo
1 run this year beaten 48 lengths
Can't say he leaps off the page here
But wouldn't be the biggest shock

Since 2009
October November December
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded races
Any distance
Any track
Horses with 1 run this season
Beaten over 20 lengths in it
Carrying 11st or more
Have a 0-88 record
 MIDNIGHT SHADOW has this profile

COOLE CODY won the Paddy Power
We had him as a saver bet that day
Comes from a brilliant trial race
But horses winning that race like him
Have a 0-10 record trying to follow up
Horses aged 9 or more like him
Have a 0-71 record since 1997
May win but it feels a big ask here

Possibles
  
AL DANCER is a 7yo
One of the classier runners
But he does have 11st 9lbs weight
Horses with 11st 9lbs or more
Have a 1-36 record in this since 1997

GOOD BOY BOBBY has 2 prep runs
Unexposed and proven track form
Beaten up my Mister Tommytucker
But has a chance at these weights
More positive than negative with him

WINDSOR AVENUE is an 8yo
Lightly raced and unexposed too
Never run in a field of 10 or more
Never run at Cheltenham either
So you would have to wonder
Whether a big field race here suits
But he does look a smart chaser
And he looks very well treated too

MASTER TOMMYTUCKER

He is the class horse
I was taking the ante post view
That if we saved on Al Dancer
And got Cepage beaten as well
He only has a 0-148 field to beat

I still like that narrative
But there is a lot of resistance

Many are right to point out
His weight and history so far
Given him much to prove

That has caused him to drift
The market is finding his price

I can throw negative stats at him

Cheltenham
November and December
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Class 2 and higher
Since 2004
Horses aged 9 or more
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Have a modest 1-84 record
MASTER TOMMYTUCKER fails this

But as pointed out midweek
He did not start racing till he was 7
He is very unexposed for his age
And I think he could be Grade 1 class

So how do we stake this bet

We could go each way
But if the race does not suit him
The place would be very vulnerable

AL DANCER could be a saver bet
He was my midweek choice of saver
But the price is now looking skinny

GOOD BOY BOBBIE is respected
I'd like him as a saver bet as well
His form tied in with the selection 

Selection

£4.00 Each Way MASTER TOMMYTUCKER 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet GOOD BOY BOBBIE  9/1

£1.00 Win Bet WINDSOR AVENUE 9/1







Cheltenham 2.25

11/4 Ashtown Lad, 7/2 Danny Kirwan
9/2 Wynn House, 11/2 Ask A Honey Bee
7/1 Make Good, 9/1 Took The Lot
10/1 Pats Fancy, 40/1 Promising Milan.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

Graded race (3m)
 
Much depends on improvement
MAKE GOOD is worth opposing
Stepping up a mile in distance

Go Back 22 years to 1998
Cheltenham Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m 5f or more
In Class 2 and higher
Horses from maiden hurdles
With more than 1 career run
Have a 0-54 record in them
PATS FANCY fails this statistic 
DANNY KIRWAN does as well
 
WYNN HOUSE is a 5yo Mare
Only 2  hurdle runs against mares
No female horse has won here
In a similar race with her profile

Past renewals show
Horses from 2m 4f or shorter
With over 3 career starts
Have a 0-30 record in this
DANNY KIRWAN fails this angle
TOOK THE LOT also fails this too

This leaves two horses

ASK A HONEY BEE
ASHTOWN LAD

Selection

£8 Win Bet ASHTOWN LAD 9/4-5/2

£2 Win Bet ASK A HONEY BEE  7/2





Cheltenham 3.00

9/4 Goshen, 5/1 Song For Someone, 6/1 Sceau Royal
13/2 Silver Streak, 7/1 Ch'tibello, 12/1 Ballyandy
12/1 Verdana Blue, 14/1 Call Me Lord, Summerville Boy
20/1 Stormy Ireland.

International Hurdle

Grade 2 hurdle over 2m 1f

One or two unacceptable profiles
SUMMERVILLE BOY down 7f in trip
STORMY IRELAND a mare chasing

No horses aged 7 or more
Have won with 1 run this year
SILVER STREAK has 2 runs
But he was carried out last time
And did not have a proper race

CH'TIBELLO is 9 years old
Rejected with 1 run this season
VERDANA BLUE is an 8yo mare
Not for me on the likely ground
CALL ME LORD won this in 2019
Penalise this year and drifting

GOSHEN is a 4yo
Should have won the Triumph
But a big talking horse since
Youngest horse in this race

Horses aged 4
Have won this race 3 times
They all ran within 4 weeks
GOSHEN has 62 days absence
That would be a slight concern
Not jumped a hurdle since March

BALLYANDY is a 9yo
But from the best trial race
Older than winners from this trial
But we have had older recent winners
 
SCEAU ROYAL is shortlisted 
But will the ground be too soft
  
SONG FOR SOMEONE is fine
Comes from the Ascot Hurdle 
Last years winner did the same
But he has no Cheltenham form

Going with an outsider
On the grounds he is proven here
Has a couple of prep runs as well
And his Cheltenham numbers
Are consistently classy and stable

But having a saver bet as well

Selection

£3.50 Each Way BALLYANDY 14/1

£3.00 Win Bet GOSHEN 2/1   







Cheltenham 3.35

3/1 The White Mouse, 7/2 Miah Grace
4/1 Aggy With It 7/1 Crossgalesfamegame
7/1 Eglantine Du Seuil, 14/1 Schiaparannie
16/1 The Bay Birch 20/1 Printing Dollars.

Mares Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Down to 9 runners

THE BAY BIRCH is unsafe
Horses from  fences are 0-16
She is the oldest horse here
Last ran over hurdles in 2018

Mares Handicap Hurdles
Run November + December
Between 2m 3f and 2m 5f

These races show
Horses from 2m 7f or more
Dropping in trip are 0-35
PRINTING DOLLAR fails this

Similar races show
No horse aged 7 or more
Won coming from under 18f
SCHIAPARANNIE fails this

EGLANTINE DU SEUIL is unsafe
Beaten 28 lengths only 7 days ago
Leaves little time to bounce back
She is also up 4f in distance

CROSSGALESFAMEGAME a 6yo
Well beaten first time out this year
Not sure he has done enough
Not sure he has the class either
Bottomweight and rated just 125
In a race all past winners were rated 129 +

Following the best profile here

All 5 past winners
Shared the below profile

Horses aged 5 or more
Under 11 hurdle races
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Carrying 10st 11lbs and more
Coming from 2m 6f or lower

Horses with this profile

Have a 5-15 record in this race

One horse matches this

MIAH GRACE

Racing Post Ratings
Last time out figures
She is 8lbs clear on those
High weight so no surprise
But the best all round profile

Selection

MIAH GRACE 7/2-4/1

Each Way






Newcastle 4.00

5/6 Mobaadel, 2/1 Restitution, 7/1 Star Shakeera
9/1 Surefire, 16/1 Renbawi, 20/1 Red Dawn
33/1 Alba De Tormes, 50/1 Roby Mill, 200/1 Miss Bobcat.

8f Novice    

MODAADEL sets the standard
Debut Racing Post Rating of 77
Ran ok nothing too impressive
Didn't look the biggest of horses
Was not convinced he stayed well

If you look at his Dosage Profile
There has to be a stamina doubt

If you look at his sire Speightstown
His 2 year old 
Running over a mile or more
Have a 0-24 record so far
And 3 of these started odds on
 
His main danger
Unraced John Gosden horse 
RESTITUTION cost plenty too

3 Past renewals
2 were Gosden newcomers
In what should be a close fight
I favour the unraced horse here
The others need improvement
One might be able to find that
 
STAR SHAKEERA may not
No horse of any age sired by Mayson
Has won first time out over 8f + yet

Going for a small saver bet
On the only appealing danger
SUREFIRE could improve a lot
Don't fancy him much to be honest
But don't want to get done here
But an improver from a big owner

Plan to trust in the unraced horse
Whilst he has an experienced edge
Circumstantial evidence suggests
He may get outstayed by a good type
RESTITUTION may well be that type

Selection

£9 Win Bet RESTITUTION 2/1-9/4

£1 Win Bet SUREFIRE 9/2-5/1

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