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Highlighted Bet
 
Cork 5.20

ALL THE MOLLIES 6/1

Each Way  
 
 
My biggest danger  
Pulled out at 9.52am

So I had a few minutes
To decide what to do

Keep it off the account
Or upgrade it to a bet

I am quite surprised
To be taking this chance






Today's Message  



Ante Post Bet

Suspended todays bet 
Full preview is in F.B.A
Which names the horse
And why it's suspended
The race is on Saturday
Plan to return to the race


Only 2 previews

Leicester 4.30
Cork 5.20

Sorry about that

Done 24 messages in 26 days
Was never going to cope today
With 7 meetings on a Tuesday
So I'm taking today very lightly


Having 2 interest bets today

Main selections in each race
Are both lower quality horses
But I think they can win today

 
Leicester 4.30

£6.00 Win Bet VOLTAIC 6/1

£3.50 Win Bet SONG OF THE ISLES 7/4 

£0.50 Win Bet DIVINE CONNECTION 20/1 


Obviously the staking is ugly
But I have negatives for the rest
The favourite looks a great saver
Do not rule out the 25/1 chance
Voltaic has not been staying
In races when running himself fit
Looked like he hated Chester last time
If he performs he should go very close
We are getting between 7/2 and 4/1
With full stakes back on two dangers



Cork 5.20

ALL THE MOLLIES  6/1

Each Way 

Poor quality horse
But only 2 acceptable profiles
And the other is a non runner




Sunday's Review

There were two weekend bets
Both horses second each way
Both traded short in running
They both looked like winning 
The Sunday bet UP HELLA AA 
Beat them all bar one improver
Headlined 3 top message bets
Eye Of The Water finished 2nd
He ran just about as expected
Beaten by first time out winner
Got the Munster National right
AFORMENTIONED won nicely
That was a very good message
Given it was 13 days on the trot
  




PROFILES & PREVIEWS 

 


Leicester 4.30

7/4 Song Of The Isles 100/30 Al Suil Eile
6/1 Voltaic, 12/1 The Big House 16/1 Pope Gregory
20/1 Olivers Pursuit, 25/1 Abbaleka, Divine Connection
33/1 Knight's Gate, Yukon Thunder, 50/1 Capp It All
50/1 Colliene Do Rois, Lili Wen Fach.

7f Selling race

Not many can take this race
From those that can one or two
Have reasons why they might not
AL SUIL EILE an obvious example
Having raced once in 224 days
POPE GREGORY hasn't shown enough
OLIVERS PURSUIT is dropping 3f


THE BIG HOUSE has a chance
But not a pleasant draw to overcome

SONG OF THE ISLES has the class
More than enough to win this seller
Even allowing for a poor last race

DIVINE CONNECTION is a player
If the following statement is true
He does not stay a mile or more
He has been running himself fit
If that is over too far a distance
Could be interesting down to 7f 

VOLTAIC is also a positive
He has some very good 7f numbers
Suspect a mile is beyond his best trip
His first 2 runs this year over a mile
Can be put down as being unfit
Didn't stay 9f + on soft at Goodwood
When also coping with 63 days off
His last run at Chester was quite poor
But looked like he hated the track
He may been on the bounce as well

Staking the race this way

 
Selection
 
£6.00 Win Bet VOLTAIC 6/1

£3.50 Win Bet SONG OF THE ISLES 7/4 

£0.50 Win Bet DIVINE CONNECTION 20/1 







Cork 5.20

4/1 High Lake, 6/1 All The Mollies, Martha's Vineyard
7/1 Prime Chief, 8/1 Flight Command 10/1 Marvel Fan
12/1 Du Maurier, 14/1 Monsieur Piquer 16/1 Jazzelle
16/1 Tickerdi, 25/1 Miss Louise, 33/1 Wat Tyler
50/1 Royal Red Persian.

10f Handicap

HIGH LAKE has a radical profile
Dropping down from 16f to 10f
With just 5 days absence
As a lightly raced 3 year old filly
She will do well to come out on top
 
DU MAURIER has 4 runs
Got herself handicapped at big prices
Hammered at 28/1 on her handicap deut
That came too soon only 12 days ago 

Several of these
Lack a fit enough profile to like

ROYAL RED PERSIAN is up 3f
He looks underraced this season  

MONSIEUR PIQUER has 1 run in 263 days
JAZELLE is a filly with 1 run in 71 days
Cheap horse who has much to prove


PRIME CHIEF 

The best backed horse 
He has only had 1 run in 11 months
Asking a lot to win as a 5yo short of runs
 
MARTHA'S VINEYARD is a 3yo filly
Saddle slipped last time so excuses
But that was 7 weeks ago now
She is very lightly raced with 4 runs
First run for a new stable as well
Which is a downgrade in trainer 

Several of these lack class

MISS LOUISE rated 46 scoring badly 
WAT TYLER has not run since 2018
MARVEL FAN is a 48 rated filly
Been hurdling at massive prices
Just too many doubts about her

October has 65 similar races

Horses with under 5 career starts
Have a 1-64 record in these races

Horses with under 4 career starts
Have a 0-26 record in these races

FLIGHT COMMAND has 3 runs
Well beaten at 66/1 only 2 weeks ago
Has to step up 3 furlongs in distance
Unsafe profile and plenty to prove
TICKERDI has similar problems
She is a filly with just 4 runs
She steps up 3f and has 88 days off

Only 1 horse 

Look safe enough to select
 
ALL THE MOLLIES 

Poor horse
But a poor race
And a fit profile
 
But she is consistent and could win this 

Selection

ALL THE MOLLIES 6/1

Each Way  






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  

No column last Sunday
 
This was down to brain freeze
After a long run of messages
Did not have much to include

Clearing up couple of issues 
Fridays trilogy of 3 small bets
Turned out an embarrassment

To be fair the two tennis bets
Just little more than guesses

Bolton cost the most damage
Annoyingly this was a 0-0 draw   
Sometimes I like the 0-0 saver
Sadly  didn't consider doing it 





Salford City

Sacked the manager
Generally viewed as unfair

Maybe it was for Saturday  
Salford 2-0 up after 85 mins
Played a covid ravaged team
Conceded 2 very late goals

Only came away with a draw
They would have been 2nd  
Instead they are only in 5th

That feels a major setback 
Paul Scholes replaces him
Until they appoint someone
Roy Keane is one candidate



 
Ante Post

Saturday

Ascot 1.20

British Champions 

Long Distance Cup
 
4/5 Stradivarius 5/1 Search For A Song
7/1 Fujaira Prince 101 Spanish Mission 12/1 Broome 
12/1 Dawn Patrol 14/1 Morando 14/1Sovereign 
14/1 Subjectivist 20/1 Trueshan 25/1 Max Vega
33/1 Monica Sheriff 33/1 Mildenberger 50/1 Raa Atoll
66/1 Dubious Affair

This race changed in 2010

Ascot stole it for Champions day
Formerly the Jockey Club Stakes

STRADIVARIUS

Nobody doubts his ability
Well clear on official ratings

But only 13 days ago
he had a hard race in the Arc
Finishing 7th on heavy ground
This is a very quick comeback
This could easily come too soon

I remember Order Of St George
Beaten at odds on back in 2016
Having ran 13 days ago in the Arc
Can not bet him at odds on here
With a hard recent race on heavy 

STRADIVARIUS is up half a mile

No past winner of this race
Or the Jockey Club Stakes
Won coming from 1m 4f or less
Horses from 1m 4f or less 0-30
Want to oppose him each way
 
MORANDO steps up from 12f
He would not by my first choice 

SEARCH FOR A SONG is a 4yo filly
Lots to like and she is progressive 
This is not  a good race for fillies
None have managed to win it yet
She will be a 4yo filly on soft ground
Having had just 1 race in 83 days 
MONICA SHERRIF another 4yo filly
Hammered 44 lengths 14 days ago

MILDENBERG has 1 run in 133 days

BROOME has 134 days off
He has raced once in 16 months
He also comes from a 1m 4f race
Can we be sure he will stay 2m 
With Acclamation as the damsire
Given his stamina index of 6.7f

TRUESHAN has to prove stamina
His sire has no winners over 2m
MAX VEGA may not have enough
And has to get over his last run
In France on heavy 13 days ago

SOVEREIGN is a 4yo
Respected but not that safe
Not his stables number 1 option
He has raced just once in 84 days

SUBJECTIVIST is a 3yo
He was 7th in the St Leger
Very exposed for a 3 year old
Have to wonder if he can improve


Shortlist

SPANISH MISSION 10/1
DAWN PATROL 12/1 
FUJAIRA PRINCE 8/1


DAWN PATROL is a 3yo
Won a 2m Group race last time
Badly drawn in the St Leger before
Has momentum and he does stay
Needs to improve but can do
 
FUJAIRA PRINCE is an option
But he has to prove his stamina
If you look at his sire Pivotal
He's had thousands of runners
His runners over 1m 7f and more
Have won 22 individual races
None of them were in Pattern races
He would be the fist by Pivotal
To win a 2m Listed or Group race  
He's only had 3 runs in 16 months
But he won an Ebor off a big weight
On the back of just 1 run this season
And has placed in a Group 1 since


SPANISH MISSION

3 runs ago

Upgraded stables

Won at Chester

Won at Doncaster

That was a career best run
No coincidence after his upgrade
Won a Group 2 over 2m 2f there
So his stamina looks guaranteed
 
Before this race was at Ascot
Known as the Jockey Club Stakes
The best trial race by a long way
Was the Doncaster Cup
Even the 2016 winner of this
Run at Ascot came from that race
SPANISH MISSION won that race

The main problem
How soft will the ground be
He has ran once on Good to Soft
And won that race by 3 lengths
Never ran on Soft or heavy yet


SPANISH MISSION

He is the bet I am interested in

There are 2 options for a saver
But not going to stake this today

Not enough market confidence
To be certain he will be running 

He is 14/1 on Betfair right now
More rain could threaten that 

Increase the chance he doesn't 
There is a draw issues as well

I'd rather take a shorter price
Knowing he is a certain runner
And has a good draw on his side

So not staked today

If you bet him today
You will lose if he doesn't run
Not a risk I am prepared to take

There are alternative options
So will come back to this race

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