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Today's Message
  

Decided late to do a message
So this one has been rushed
Starting the week cautiously
After 3 heavy days on the trot

  
6 Previews 

Lingfield 2.20
Bath 2.30
Lingfield 3.25
Tipperary 3.30
Lingfield 4.25
Tipperary 5.30


Thirsk has enormous fields
Not getting involved there

The Irish cards appear raw
Some of the reserve runners
Are at the head of the market
Makes them impossible to sort

SCHERZANDO is one of them
He was Fridays highlighted bet
He is 3/1 fav to win the 4pm
Yet he is the second reserve
So going to have to leave him

No interest in staking a bet


Best Bet


Having a small multiple bet


Lingfield 2.20 - SILVESTRIS 2/1 -15/8

Lingfield 3.25 - CLAREYBLUE 2/1 -7/4

£3 Win on each horse

£4 Win Double on both
  

The alternative to this staking
Would be an each way double
Which should appeal to some 

Scruffy cobbled together message

 



 
Sunday's Review 
 
Sunday offered us 6 previews
And ended up with 3 winners
Decent prices on all the three
It was a much better message 
Than the one I portrayed it as 

I was interested in the 1st race
Did not bother much after that
But those that stuck with things
Would have come out winning 
My split stake bet at 16/1 + 16/1
Failed partially on draw issues
The track had been narrowed
The first 3 home had low draws
There was a definite advantage
Our pair from stalls 13 and 14
Never had the chance to shine
Both though were heavily eased
They ran better than it will show
I've added both to a my tracker 

After that defeat I switched off
Began the Cambridgeshire work
Came back and looked at results
Next 2 previous really delivered
Hope a few may have benefited 
It was better than I had expected





PROFILES & PREVIEWS 
  


Lingfield 2.20
 
7/4 Fangorn, 9/4 Silvestris, 11/2 Beryl Burton
6/1 Hellavapace, 10/1 Odd Man Out, 20/1 Puffin Island
25/1 Very Nice Girl, 33/1 Complexo, Lady Susie
50/1 Havergate Island, Vino Santo, 100/1 Sepah.

Auction Maiden 7f

This is an auction race
For cheaply bought horses

FANGORN - 1 run
SILVESTRIS - 3 runs

FANGORN ran well on debut
Given a quiet non stressful ride
He could win no strong objections
SILVESTRIS though offer more
More experience maybe sharper

September
 Auction Maiden show

Horses with 1 run
Coming from a 6f race
Running within 2 weeks
Have a 0-15 record in them
FANGORIN tries to better this

But they also show
Horses from 7f races
With 3 previous races
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Have a 4-12 record in them

SILVESTRIS's profile is safer
There could be unraced dangers
Nothing feels too threatening 
But that is the nature of these races
Staying with the experienced one

Selection

SILVESTRIS 7/4-2/1

Win Bet






Bath 2.30

11/8 The Kodi Kid, 5/2 Grand Scheme
4/1 Say It As It Is, 12/1 Diamond Bay
14/1 Invincible Soldier, Rockstar Blonde.

2yo Novice 8f

Looks a 3 horse race
None of the 3 bigger priced horses
Have achieved as much as the big 3

THE KODI KID has 2 runs
Every chance on those runs
But he has to prove his stamina
The pedigree does look speedy

SAY IT AS IT IS has a chance
Not keen he comes from 6f
8f Novices for 2 year olds
Run at any time of year on grass
Show horses with 2 + runs
Coming from 6f or shorter
Absent over 17 days are 0-18
Not a strong angle to be fair
But I prefer his main two rivals
Who come from stronger stables

GRAND SCHEME has 2 runs
Decent form and fully respected
Every chance he outstays these

Selection

THE GRAND SCHEME 9/4

Win Bet







Lingfield 3.25

6/4 Clog Maker, 11/4 Clareyblue, 9/2 Little Brown Trout
9/1 Never Dark, 20/1 Equally Fast, Heer We Go Again.

6f Handicap

Small field
Most are 3 year olds

CLOG MASTER is favourite
Feel he has a lot to prove
He only has 4 career runs
Just one since last February
 
Horses with under 5 runs
Coming from handicaps
Running within 3 weeks
Just do not score very well
Wouldn't say he is on the bounce
But one run in almost 7 months
Not the best or preparations

Horses from 7f races
Under 5 runs
Running within 7 weeks
Have a 0-21 record
CLOG MASTER fails this too

Tiny fields
Not easy to predict the race

CLAREYBLUE has topweight
With momentum and recent runs
He looks safer than the favourite

NEVER DARK 5/1
LITTLE BROWN TROUT 4/1

Both considered as £2 savers
Hard to split easy to get wrong
LITTLE BROWN TROUT is safer
Probably well treated right now
But has an inexperienced jockey
In the end staying win only

Selection

CLAREYBLUE 9/4

Win Bet





Tipperary 3.30

3/1 Ediyva, 9/2 Haifa, 11/2 Bluebeard's Castle
6/1 Midnight Sunshine, 6/1 Knight Of Malta
13/2 Broken Silence, 9/1 Fastnet Crown
12/1 Departmentalize, 16/1 Undercommunication
20/1 Capote's Dream, 50/1 Motbeq, 66/1 Isolde
66/1 Maysonlight, Noor Asalam, Oasis Law.
 
Maiden (7f)

The draw could be an issue

Tipperary 7f races
Since 2011
Horses with under 10 runs
Drawn 14 or higher
Have a modest 1-61 record

Male horses in this record
Drawn 13 or higher are 0-41

HAIFA is drawn 18
Unsafe with a long absence
DEPARTMENTALISE is drawn 15
Other profiles look a bit safer
Others have achieved more
UNDERCOMMUNICATION is out
Not safe unraced and drawn 12
BROKEN SILENCE is beatable
From a very low scoring stable

KNIGHT OF MALTA is 
Worrying he drops down 2f
When well beaten 12 days ago
But he has excuses for that run
Stepping up 3.5f in distance
Running on heavy ground
And his previous race at Naas
Was when he was badly drawn
But it's still quite a risky profile


MIDNIGHT SUNSHINE is a 4yo filly
She concedes weight for age
But gets the fillies allowance
Fillies aged 4 have a 1-31 record
That winner ran 12 days before
Didn't want to risk an older filly
Taking on a few 3 year old males

Possibles


BLUEBEARS CASTLE has 1 run
Needs to improve but should do

EDIYVA has a solid profile
Would be the safest choice

There are 2 horses in this   
Dropping from 8f to 7f

Who on their breeding stats
Given their number of career runs
Were unlikely stayers last time

CAPOTE'S DREAM 12/1-14/1
FASTNET CROWN 12/1

Down trip with an extra run
They are overpriced in this
Both should be shorter prices

Wouldn't put anyone off
Two each way bets at £2.50
But this is a weakish market
And not really a practical bet
Small stakes it is ambitious 

Selection

£2.50 Each Way CAPOTE'S DREAM 14/1

£2.50 Each Way  FASTNET CROWN 12/1






Lingfield 4.25

7/2 A'Shamardi, 9/2 Azor Ahai, 6/1 Esspeegee
8/1 Famous Dynasty, 8/1 Hammy End, 8/1 Janus
10/1 Bealach, Cottonopolis, 14/1 Smiley Bagel
20/1 Becky Sharp, Gravity Wave, 25/1 Ivaquestion
33/1 French Mix, 50/1 Into Debt.

12f Handicap

Low Grade race

September has 112 similar races 

A'SHAMARDI is a 3yo
He only has 3 career runs
Not some much bothered by that
As the short 10 day absence
Do not like that short break
 
12f Handicaps
Class 6 races
Any time of year
Since 2004

Horses aged 3
Under 4 career starts
Absent under 17 days
Return a 0-28 record
A'SHAMARDI has this profile
He was hammered at 33/1
Only 10 days ago hardly ideal
Going to look elsewhere

Unfit profiles

SMILEY BAGLE a 7yo absent 326 days
GRAVITY WAVE - 1 run in over 12 months
FRENCH MIX- 1 run in months

BECKY SHARP is scoring badly
INTO DEBT lacks class

INVAQUESTION has a bad draw
Steps up from a 7f to a 12f race
With a short absence he is unsafe

FAMOUS DYNASTY is a 6yo
Well beaten over 2f shorter last time
Not a safe profile
Never won this late in the year
And from a toxic low scoring stable
COTTOMOPOLIS is a 3yo
Dreadful last run seems out of sorts

BEALACH is a 3yo
Hammered in a seller last time
Following a wind operation
Hardly a risk free proposition

JANUS is limited
But this is a poor quality race
He is fit and running well enough
His profile is weakened though
By coming up 4f in distance

AZOR AHAI won last time
Certainly could not rule him out
But is very short of runs this year
Switches to sand over a bit further

ESSPEEGEE is a 7yo
He has 68 days absence

Ran his profile expecting little
But I found 3 winners like him
Only 9 days ago a horse called Kirtling
Won a similar race aged 9 absent 63 days
Favourite last time but on the bounce
He could be the surprise package

HAMMY END is drawn 13
Not the best of draws really
But not impossible to win high 
He has plenty of positives
Running well excuses last time

Selection
 
£4.50 Each Way HAMMY END 5/1 

£1 Win Bet ESSPEEGEE 11/1 


 


Tipperary 5.30

3/1 Snow Patch, 11/2 Teddy Boy
6/1 Hija De La Luna 9/1 Mi Esperanza
10/1 Too Hard To Hold 10/1 Pillar 11/1 Hot Dakota
12/1 Nice Child Two, 14/1 My Good Brother
14/1 Ticks The Boxes, 16/1 St George's Head
20/1 Art Of Unity, 25/1 Castrogiovanni
40/1 Pocket Edition, 50/1 Seanjohnsilver. 

5f Handicap

TEDDY BOY

Backed him each way 3 runs ago
At the time very interested in him

Left him alone on his last 2 runs
He was taking a step up in class

Now he is back down in class
This is only a 0-61 class race
HIJA DE LA LUNA is topweight
But a filly with 1 run in 9 months
And surely won't be as sharp
ST GEORGES HEAD is rejected
He also looks underaced this year
MY GOOD BROTHER Is an 11yo
Too old with 1 run in over 6 months
NICE CHILD TOO is inexperienced
POCKET EDITION the same issue
CASTROGIOVANNI is underraced
SEANJOHNSILVER outclassed
 
MI ESPERANZA is a 4yo filly
She has raced once in 74 days
Some have 5-6-7 runs in that period
HOT DAKOTA is a 3yo filly
She is running low figures at 50/1 +
ACT OF UNITY is running low numbers
Looks like he hasn't got fit enough

PILLAR has a recent run
But is a low scorer this season

SNOW PATCH is an older mare
Obvious chance with some worries
Will 4 runs this year be enough
When you factor in 31 days
Will her 10lbs claimer hurt her 
 
TICKS THE BOXES has a chance
But has never won over 5f before
This probably will be a bit sharp
But she has recent runs at 5f
This is softer than good ground
She is bigger at 14/1 than should be

TOO HARD TO HOLD is a 3yo
Has some backclass last year
Been running himself fit this year
Ran well last time from a bad draw
Finished well and could go close

TEDDY BOY

Better draw and bigger odds
Would have been an e/w selection
But instead making him the saver

Selection 

£3.50 Each Way TOO HARD TO HOLD 12/1-14/1

£2.00 Win Bet TEDDY BOY 3/1- 7/2

£1.00 Win Bet TICKS THE BOXES 12/1-14/1

 



FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 

US Open Tennis

Dominic Theim

Won the final this morning 
His first Grand Slam title
Very enjoyable two weeks

I did not watch the final
Woke up surprised to find
It was a stressful 5 setter
Thiem lost the first 2 sets
Before winning the last 3
Extremely pleased he won
And glad I never watched it




Cambridgeshire Handicap

Saturday September 26th


1)Statistics Today

2) Analysis in next message

3) Shortlist of 15 included


 
Spent most of yesterday on this
There are some race angles later
For anyone who likes an early look
And prefers to build their own bets

Shortlist of 15
 
Happy with this right now
Many of these will not run
Will give that next message

One of the horses on there
Won a race as I studied him



LASER SHOW 16/1

This horse won yesterday 
Cambridgeshire price now 16/1
Saeed bin Suroor the trainer

Far too early for any selection
No idea if he is even running

But he survives all my angles
And looks a possible selection

He brings excellent momentum
Having won his last two races

He won in Dubai in January
Failed in the UAE 2000 guineas
But can not hold that against him

Laser Show was then Gelded
They turned down Royal Ascot
The softer ground against him
So he had 4 months off the track

He needed his comeback race
When 4th in a very hot handicap

Laser Show won his next 2 races
Quiet races winning them easily
Liked what I saw about his profile

He is the only horse
I have looked at properly
From the 15 on my shortlist

So a long way from a selection
But I had £25 at 16/1 with Hills
Just after he had won yesterday
Happy to take the risk involved
Not running or getting a bad draw
Will know more in a few days time
But wanted to declare I took 16/1





Ante Post Statistics

September 26th

Newmarket 3.35

Cambridgeshire Handicap 

Tempus 8/1 Ilaraab 12/1 Montatham 12/1 Sinjaari 12/1
Sir Busker 12/1 Top Rank 12/1 Dark Vision 14/1
Dubai Mirage 14/1 Al Rufaa 16/1 Certain Lad 16/1
Derevo 25/1 Fifth Position 16/1 Lucander 16/1
Njord 16/1 Tauran Shaman 16/1 Tenbury Wells 16/1
Walhaan 16/1  Bell Rock 20/1 Hypothetical 20/1
Johan 20/1 Laser Show 20/1 Maydanny 20/1
Palavecino 20/1 Power of Darkness 20/1 Afaak 25/1
Solid Stone 20/1 Celtic Art 25/1 Dream Castle 25/1
Hartswood 25/1 King Carney 25/1 Majestic Dawn 25/1
Prince Eiji 25/1 Zegalo 25/1 Alternative Fact 33/1
Bear Force One 33/1 Data Protection 33/1 Sarvan 33/1
Golden Force 33/1 Good Birthday 33/1 Johnny Drama
33/1 Master The Stars Mayfair Spirit Overwrite 33/1
Kryptos 40/1 Tulfarris 40/1 Via Serendipity 40/1
What's The Story 40/1 You're Hired 40/1 Alibaba 50/1
Anythingtoday 50/1 Chatez 50/1 HMS President 50/1
Star of Southwold 50/1 Tadleel 50/1 Teston 50/1
The Met 50/1 Balgair 66/1 Glasvegas 66/1
Mosakhar 66/1 Ritchie Valens 66/1 Silver Dust 66/1
Wild Hero 66/1 Destroyer 100/1 Dolphin Vista 100/1
Mutafani 100/1 Solo Hunter  100/1

10 of the last 11 winners
Shared the following profile

Male Horses
Aged 3-4-5-6-7
Running within 100 days
8st 4lbs to 9st 9lbs
Between 4 and 27 runs
Beaten under 6 lengths last time
Rated between 87 and 107
Coming from 8f to 10f
Coming from Class 3 or higher
    
Horses aged 5-6 with 21-27 runs
Running within 3 weeks
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Coming from a Handicap are 4-16

Cambridgeshire since 2001
Horses with 27 + runs are 0-137

Horses with 24 + runs are 1-170
Those absent over 2 days are 0-166

Horses with 22 + runs
Absent more than 2 weeks are 0-127
  
Horses with 18 + runs

Aged 3 are 0-5
Aged 4 are 0-80
Aged 7 + are 0-62

Horses from Listed or Group races
Have a poor record and best avoided
Only the 2013 winner did it in decades

The last Cambridgeshire winner 
Dropping from 12f was 29 years ago  

No winner came from Class 4 or lower

Recent winners
had the following career starts
4 6 17 18 10 23 14 10 21 26 23
 
Recent winners
had the following runs that year
3 4 3 6 6 8 7 4 5 7 4
Avoid those with just 1-2 runs  

Horses from 7f or less won 4 races
They all finished 1st or 2nd last time 
They all had 4 or more runs that season
All 39 have lost since 2001 though

Horses aged 3
With over 6 runs are 4-105
Those with just 1 run in 2 months
Have a 0-33 record in this handicap
   
Horses beaten 6 lengths + last time
Have a poor 2-260 record since 1997 
Those not aged 4 were 0-172
Those from 9f or shorter were 0-157
The following horses fails this angle

Horses with 9st 6lbs or more
Have a 1-70 record since 1997
The following horses fail this
 
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Aged 5 or older
Have a 0-44 record since 1997

3 Year olds 
None had Listed or Group Races
  
Horses absent more than 7 weeks
With 15 or more races were 0-48 

Look at every Newmarket race
Since the stalls were renumbered
That was run over 2m or shorter
Horses drawn 30 or higher
Have a 0-30 record since 2011
 
Horses with 20 + runs are 6-233
All had at least 4 runs that season
None were aged 7 or more
They were all Male
They all ran within 42 days
5 of the 6 ran within 16 days
All 91 beaten  6 + lengths last time lost
None carried more than 9st 2lbs

Horse from Grade 1 Tracks
Won 28 of the last 30 renewals  
 
Horses with over 18 runs
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-69 record since 1997

3 year olds

Have a 6-131 record since 2000
Had 4 6 10 5 12 11 career runs
Had 3 or more races that season
3 year olds are fine with absences
None had form in Group Races
3yo winners won off 98 107 95 102 97 95
3yo's who were unraced as juveniles
Have won this more than once
 
4 year olds

Horses aged 4 have a 7-246 record
Past 4yo winners
Had 17 10 5 8 14 12 7 career runs
All 4yo winners had Class 2 form
Only 1 had Group Class form before
Better no Group class runs for 4yo's
4yo winners won from these ratings
96 104 102 99 87 99 92 91 85 84

5 year olds
 
Have a 4-129 record
They won 4 of the last 10 renewals
Winners aged 5 had 18 21 23 26 runs
They had absences of 37 2 14 16 days
They won from marks of 104 91 99 87

6 year olds

Have a 3-70 record
All ran within 6 lengths last time
Past 6yo winners had 22 46 21 runs
They all had 4 + races that season
They were absent 42 14 7 days
They had Class 2 form but no higher
6yo winners won off 100 95 88

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