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Today's Message  
   
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Market Rasen 12.30
Market Rasen 1.05 
Newbury 1.50
Ripon 2.05
Newbury 2.25
Ripon 3.15
Newbury 3.35
Newbury 4.40 


England only today

The Irish cards don't feature
Too raw and too complicated

Don't see one stand out bet
Problem solving in most races
Without unearthing any gems

Not penetrating enough today
Decided there is nothing strong

Done the Great St Wilfrid
Came down on this selection


Ripon 3.15

GUNMETAL 9/1

Each WAY

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5
Hills Skybet 6 places

Not much originality there
Not suitable race for a main bet


Looking for the best bet
This may be a sensible choice
Not a bad price with some safety
Not many negatives in the race



Today's Best Bet


Newbury 3.35

COUNTRY CARNIVAL 9/2 - 4/1

Each Way



There is a Monday message
Catterick and Tipperary are on
Two of my favourite courses

Today's message though
Feels a little bit too average 
Haven't made the case for a bet






Saturday's Message 

Wheels came off a bit yesterday
Only managed to find one winner
The main account bet was fourth
PEACHEY CARNEHAN raced ok
The distances Neck Neck Neck
He was right there are the end
But putting this down as a loser
Although 5 firms offered 1-2-3-4
It is fairer to have only 3 places
Well done if you did bet 1-2-3-4
Either way goes down as a loss
Did not expect or get much luck
OH THIS IS US missed the frame
But he was stopped in his finish
Rock Boy Grey ran out of a place
That said it wasn't an unlucky day
Just one we came off second best




  

PROFILES & PREVIEWS 
  



Market Rasen 12.30

11/10 Soldier On Parade, 3/1 Bannister
6/1 To Fly Free, 7/1 Kings Creek, 14/1 Historic Heart
16/1 Party Potential, 50/1 Navajo Eagle
100/1 Dragon Man.

3yo Hurdle

SOLDIER ON PARADE won last time
Now has 2 hurdle runs behind him
He has the best numbers onside
BANNISTER 3rd on debut has 1 run
He needs to improve to take this

3yo Hurdle races in August
Horses winning on their second start
Having had form on the flat do well
10 horses tried to win and 4 managed it
The 4 winners had 7 6 8 9 career runs
SOLDIER ON PARADE has 9 runs
Looks a good match to past winners

TO FLY FREE is a filly
Hard to read a cheap French recruit
Don't see enough to sway me her way
Best plan is many 3yo Hurdle races
Stay with the last time out winners

Selection

SOLDIER ON PARADE 10/11-Evs-11/10

Win Bet




Market Rasen 1.05

7/2 Millie Of Mayo, 4/1 Christopher Robin
9/2 Highate Hill 5/1 Triopas, 9/1 Viking Ruby
12/1 Southfield Torr, 14/1 Get An Oscar
20/1 Forchena, 25/1 Crakehall Lad
33/1 A New Siege, Kymata, 50/1 Inexorable.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f

HIGHATE HILL is a 6yo
He has 243 days off the track
Well backed for Olly Murphy
 
Played with a few numbers
August handicap Hurdles
Run in 0-110 class and lower
Run over 2m 5f and further
Show horses aged under 7
Absent more than 120 days
Have a 0-41 record in these

Don't think we can assume
Just because he is gambled
That the absence is no issue
My angles say look elsewhere

That requires guesswork
SOUTHFIELD TORR is risky

MILLIE OF MAJO inexperienced
5yo mare with just 4 career runs
Won a mares handicap last time
She was 20/1 this is against males
Might win but no winners like her

VIKING RUBY hard to read
Mare with 1 run 1 win in months
Not sure if she might bounce

CHRISTOPHER ROBIN a 5yo
He is a bit exposed for his age
But he is well handicapped too
Comes here with momentum

TRIOPAS is a positive
Well treated if coming here fit

Selection

£9 Win Bet CHRISTOPHER ROBIN 100/30

£1 Win Bet TRIOPAS 8/1 +





Newbury 1.50

5/1 Confide, Risk Taker, 6/1 Aweedram, 7/1 Barossa Red
8/1 Turntable, 12/1 Lapidary, Wilfy, 16/1 Brunel Charm
16/1 Gallaside, 20/1 Give It Some Teddy, 20/1 Swiss Cheer
20/1 Zefferino, 25/1 Hawridge Storm,  25/1 Rainbow Jet,
33/1 Albadr,

8f Handicap

Very competitive race
But there is a lot of deadwood too

The ideal profile
Based on similar races here

Horses aged 3-4
Carrying 9st 8lbs or less
At least 2 runs in 12 weeks
Coming from Class 4 or lower

Applied these angles
Aran a few more profiles
CONFIDE misses out as a 4yo
Because he only has 3 career starts

AWEEDRAN could easily win
But 10st seems a lot of weight
Horses with 9st 9lbs or more
Have a 0-18 record in this race
WILFRY is unsafe up in distance
LAPIDARY also has this issue

Shortlist

TURNTABLE 10/1
BAROSSA RED 5/1-11/2
RISK TAKER 7/2

None are problem free

BAROSSA RED has 9st 12lbs
Bit more weight than is ideal
But he has ran 3 times before
Over a mile when it has been soft
He has placed in all 3 races
Racing Post Ratings 86 89 89
Suggests well treated off just 84

RISK TAKER a 3yo up in distance
Only has 4 career starts but positive

TURNTABLE is up in grade
But his numbers are positive

Decided to play it this way

Selection

£4.50 Each Way BAROSSA RED 5/1-11/2

£1.00 Win Bet TURNTABLE 9/1  





Ripon 2.05

3/1 Hortzadar, 13/2 Fred, Oasis Prince
7/1 Hesslewood, 8/1 Young Fire, 10/1 Fennaan
11/1 Blonde Warrior, Garden Oasis, 12/1 Just Hiss
12/1 Sun Power, 16/1 Thrave.

8f Handicap

Not my kind of race
But giving it a whirl

August
Ripon had 18 similar races

None went to a 3 year old
None to a horse absent 32 + day

FRED has both of these problems
As a 3 year old with 381 days off
SUN POWER The only other 3yo
Has the hardest draw 11 of 11

YOUNG FIRE has months off
Might pop up but hardly safe
FENNAAN looks underraced
Just one 50/1 run in 10 months

The 18 winners
All shared this profile

Aged 4 or more
Running within 31 days
Having 2 + runs this year
Beaten under 15 lengths last time

The following have this profile

3/1 Hortzadar
13/2 Oasis Prince
7/1 Hesslewood
11/1 Blonde Warrior
11/1 Garden Oasis
12/1 Just Hiss

BLONDE WARRIOR isn't safe
Horses from 7f races underperform
He is also going up in class

Racing Post Ratings
Last time figures this year
 
97 Hortzadar
87 Hesslewood
85 Fred
84 Just Hiss
82 Fennaan
80 Garden Oasis
80 Sun Power
77 Blonde Warrior
72 Oasis Prince
00 Thrave

HORTZADAR did a 97 figure
Thats well clear of all the others
He also won this race last year
Around 100/30 if he gets there
I'd happily consider him each way

OASIS PRINCE is a positive
General profile seems fine
His numbers tell me well treated
He has had some bad recent draws
He is fully effective at this course
Depends on how much rain there is
Good to soft fine but any softer
Would probably start to hurt him

Selection

£9 Win Bet HORTZADAR 3/1-11/4

£1 Win Bet OASIS PRINCE 7/1 +





Newbury 2.25

4/1 Danyah, 13/2 Mottrib, 8/1 River Nymph
10/1 Impressor, Lexington Dash, 12/1 Silent Echo, 
12/1 Tranchee, 14/1 Blackcastle Storm, Cold Stare, 
14/1 Ice Lord, 14/1 Powertrain, 20/1 De Vegas Kid,
25/1 Kondratiev Wave, 33/1 Boardman
33/1 Walk On Walter.

7f Handicap

11 Past renewals

The 11 winners
Had 36 33 24 7 11 22 14 10 19 12 12 runs

Straight away we can see
Lighter raced horses have done badly

DANYAH only has 4 runs
Thats 3 fewer than all past winners
He also has just 1 race this season too
Do not see that as a safe profile

What bothers me more about him
He is badly drawn in stall 18
 
Newbury 7f races
Run since 2014
There are 176 of these races
Horses drawn 14 or more
Have a 0-92 record in them
DANYAH is rejected drawn 18

MOTTRIB has 4 runs 
Not safe enough with so few races
But non runners improve his draw

POWERTRAIN badly drawn in 16
Has just 1 run this year and up in trip

ICE LORD is an 8 year old
Two years older than all past winners
He is underraced and up in distance
And badly drawn in stall 14 as well

Some of these are underraced
WALK ON WATER 1 run in 10 months
DE VEGAS KID 1 run since February
BOARDMAN does not seem ready to win
KONDRATIEV WAVE doesn't offer enough

IMPRESSOR has 5 career runs
All past winners had 7 or more
Not safe with just 1 run this year
BLACKCASTLE STORM is similar
Just 5 runs and may not be ready yet
TRANCHEE is a 4yo
Unseated at the start last time
That means he may be underraced
With just 1 proper run since March
Up in the weights and class as well

SILENT ECHO has topweight
Small yard and going up in distance
Never won off a rating this high
Chances are he will fall short

LEXINGTON DASH is a 3yo
Coming up in trip and 7 runs
Not a match to any past winners
Not ideal but not ruled out
 
RIVER NYMPH a 3yo with 6 runs
May just be a run or two short
Gone up in the weights for winning
Not ideal but still see him going well
Given a lifetime best last time out

COLD STARE is interesting
He is an exposed 5 year old 
As were the 2011 2014 2017 2019 winners 
Has a recent run 8 days ago
Did little wrong at Haydock
Badly drawn at Ascot before that
Found the ground too fast at Hamilton
Any rain and he could take this race
Just nervous about his last run
Recovering from Haydock 8 days ago

Selection

£3.50 Each Way RIVER NYMPH  8/1

£3.00 Win Bet COLD STARE 9/1-10/1 

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5





Ripon 3.15

7/1 Kimifive, 8/1 Dakota Gold, 8/1 Motagally
10/1 Staxton, 12/1 Brian The Snail, Gunmetal
14/1 Hyperfocus, 14/1Watchable, 16/1 Abate
16//1 Abel Handy, Citron Major, George Bowen, 
16/1 Golden Apollo, 16/1 Thegreatestshowman
16/1 Typhoon Ten, 20/1 Deputise, Highly Sprung
20/1 I Am A Dreamer, 20/1Mr Lupton
50/1 Royal Residence.
 
Great St Wilfrid Handicap

DAKOTA GOLD won this last year
Won off a Rating of 99 doing that
 
The last 22 winners
Won off these handicap marks

99 97 100 98 96 94 94 99 87 95 94 
100 92 98 99 80 98 96 83 85 75 101
 
No horse won rated 102 or higher
Horses rated 102 or more are 0-50
DAKOTA GOLD is now rated 107
That may well be too much for him
WATCHABLE the second topweight
He's hard to like as a 10yo up in trip

Horses aged 8 or more like him
Have a 0-51 record in 22 renewals
GEORGE BOWEN is rejected aged 8

Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks are 1-79
HYPEREFOCUS fails this off 3 weeks
GOLDEN APPOLO also has this issue

20 of the last 23 winners
Ran within the past 3 weeks
Those that did not were 3-83
Those aged 3-4 doing this were 0-26
DEPUTISE fails this absent 155 days

Whilst the very high weights struggle
You don't want a low rated lightweight 

The last 11 winners
Were rated 94 or higher

Horses rated 93 or lower since 2008
Have a 0-39 record and may lack class 

These horses are rated worryingly low
THEGREATESTSHOWMAN is rated 83
He comes from only a Class 4 race
The last 17 winners
Came from Class 2 or Class 3 races
No winners came from under Class 3

ABATE has both of these problems
Rated only 83 and coming up in class
ROYAL RESIDENCE ran yesterday
Didn't do enough to be considered

ABEL HANDY rated only 84
Has to step up 2 grades in class
He is also coming from a 5f race
Horses from 5f races
Have not won this since 2004
Those doing it since 2005 were 0-38

HIGHLY STRUNG is only rated 83
I AM A DREAMER is rated too low
He was 50/1 -100/1 in his last 2 runs
CITRON MAJOR rated too low
He is another going up in class
Has a 0-7 record in class 2 races

MOTAGALLY is a 4yo with 14 runs
He is going up from a Class 3 race
All past winners came from Class 2 +
He's won softer races over 6 furlongs
Far from convinced he will cope here

TYPHOON TEN is a 4yo
Won a weaker race last time
Up in class and the weights now
Feel there are more likely winners
 
MR LUPTON is a 7yo
He has raced once in 57 days
That may not be enough to win this
He also lacks any course form

KIMIFIVE was nearly shortlisted
BRIAN THE SNAIL was as well
But decided not to go with them

Take both this race
And the Consolation race too
Since as far back as 2003
Horses under 7 years old
Having over 28 career starts
Have a 0-119 record in both races

BRIAN THE SNAIL has this profile
KIMIFIVE also has this 0-119 profile

Not sure how far I can trust that 
KIMIFIVE though has no track form
And has a career high mark today 
BRIAN THE SMAIL fails this as well
He has a 0-20 record in this class
STAXTON fails this 0-119 statistic
But upgraded him to the shortlist

Shortlist

STAXTON  
GUNMETAL

STAXTON is only rated 88
No past winner came up in class
So he should be a statistical fail
But he was 5th in this last year
From the highest stall rated 99
He has dropped 11lbs in the weights
   
GUNMETAL is rated 87 
The last 11 winners were rated 94 +
Thats the one big angle he fails here
But I kept him on the shortlist
He was rated 101 just 11 months ago
He has come down a lot in the weights
His career best run was here over 6f
He ran well on his last run here
Previously badly drawn at York
He's had a few excuses all season
Either he is regressive as a 7 year old
Or he the same horse now well treated 

Not mentioned the draw 
Not much I wanted to say here
The very low draws are a worry

GUNMETAL's trainer has said

"Mountain to climb drawn 9"
"Don't want to be middle drawn"
" Will be lucky to get involved"

The 2013 and 2017 winners
Both won from stall 9 like him
The 2012 winner won drawn 10
So going to ignore that concern

STAXTON an optional saver
Not a great price around 9/1 now
So going with an each way single

Selection

GUNMETAL 9/1

Each WAY

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5
Hills Skybet 6 places





Newbury 3.35

3/1 Caroline Dale, 4/1 Miss Jingles, 11/2 Country Carnival
11/2 Sardinia Sunset, 10/1 Amor De Mi Vida,12/1 Zoetic
14/1 Fairy Dust, 16/1 Mirror Kisses, 33/1 Queen Of Rio.
  
St Hugh's Stakes

5f Listed race for 2yo fillies
 
CAROLINE DALE has positives
Comes from the best trial race
She has the best numbers too
But she is drawn 11 or 11 her
After a non runners 10 of 10

Go back to 2011
Newbury 5f races
With under 12 runners
Horses drawn 9 or more
Have a 0-44 record in them
Even in smallish fields like this
High draws have not won in years
Going each way against her
ZOETIC is not well drawn either
QUEEN OF RIO inexperienced 

11 of the last 13 winners
Had at least 3 previous runs

No horse has won this race
When the ground was G-soft or worse
Having had under 3 career starts
Only 15 tried but none have won it
MIRROR KISSES fails this statistic
FAIRY DUST has the same problem
She has never raced over 5f before
AMOR DE MI VIDA has 2 runs
She fails the same angle on soft
Drawn 9 does not help her profile

There are 3 each way options

SARDINIA SUNSET 11/2-6/1
COUNTRY CARNIVAL 5/1
MISS JINGLES 4/1
 
SARDINIA SUNSET is respected
So speedily bred she may want 4f !
Got away with G-Soft at York
This is a bigger field she is penalised
This is also a stiffer 5f to overcome

COUNTRY CARNIVAL is a positive
2nd in the same race as last years winner

MISS JINGLES won the same race
Escapes a penalty for winning there
She is entitled to improve as well

Much depends on the ground
Who will handle the soft better
COUNTRY CARNIVAL should do
Has the extra experience too

Selection

COUNTRY CARNIVAL 9/2 - 4/1

Each Way


 


Newbury 4.40 
  
5/2 Baradar, 4/1 Mashhoor, 5/1 Aljaryaal
13/2 Wink Of An Eye, 10/1 Dickens, 12/1 Orgetorix
14/1 General Lee, 16/1 French Conquest
20/1 Spirit Of Iffraaj, 100/1 Jaffathegaffa.

7f Maiden (2yo)

Messy so going to guess

BARADAR is unraced
Drawn 11 looks a problem

Newbury 7f races
Under 12 runners
Horses with under 8 runs
Drawn 10 or more are 0-60
BARADAR has a tough draw

MASHHOOR is unraced 
Sir Michael Stoute my concern
He can leave his 2 year olds short
And he was drifting very early on
Even yesterday he was out to 9/2 
May be wrong but may need this

DICKENS is unraced
Alan King and seems fancied
Go back 15 years to 2005
Alan King unraced 2 year olds
Have a 0-119 record since then
If he wins he wins but 0-119 is serious

ALJARYAAL is respected
Not a stable I like to trust much
And has he been turned down
By the ride or same owned Mashhoor
SPIRIT OF IFFRAAJ isnt my choice
No market support late May foal
ORGETORIX gelded didn't appeal

FRENCH CONQUEST drawn 10
Seems resistible from Clive Cox
Last time was withdrawn at the stalls 
Said to be a very nice type though
If behaving and attracting money
I would certainly keep him onside 

Always knew we'd have to guess
With both selections and staking

Selection

Low Stakes

£5 Win Bet WINK OF AN EYE 13/2

£5 Win Bet FRENCH CONQUEST 10/1
 
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