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Account Bet

Gowran Park 7.45

FEMINISTA 5/1

Each Way

11/2 Bet365
5/1 Generally
9/2 Ladbrokes Corals Skybet

  



Today's Message  

Similar schedule to yesterday 
Ascot mainly fun interest bets
Just try to keep out of trouble
My best options are at the end
  
Gowran Park has just 1 preview
Dangerous to cover more there
They want to spoil the draw bias
Messing around with false rails
Hard to trust that bias anymore 
  
Ascot 1.50 
Ascot 12.25
Ascot 3.00
Ascot 3.35
Ascot 4.10
Ascot 4.40 
Gowran Park 7.45


Two Potential Bets

Ascot 4.10 

BERKSHIRE ROCCO 4/1

Each Way


Gowran Park 7.45

FEMINISTA 5/1

Each Way

 
They are similar bets

Both are each way  

At 4/5-5/1 with 8-9 runners

Conditioning
Momentum
Fitness
Experience

Both have several of these factors
And have opposition lacking those

Simply an annoying 50-50 call
Which one of these to choose
Came down on the Irish race

Personal Strategy

Going to bet both
But also the win double

Having a win Double 4/1 and 5/1
If Berkshire Rocco wins at Ascot
Then we don't need to bet Feminista





Thursday's Review

Ascot had rain and non runners
Main aim to keep out of trouble
We finished up L L P W P there
Not much in it after 5 previews
Doubt people won or lost much
The strongest bets were later on
TARAMANSOUR finished second
Ran well but frustrated with that
The winner got one brilliant ride
Think he was the main difference
And  also having a rail advantage
After a furlong he led from stall 18
Master class of riding just beat us
The main bet was over at Redcar
MY BOY LEWIS second each way
I was relieved and pleased there
I had an hour off in the afternoon
He was 9.8 on Betfair at the time
I came back and he drifted to 14
Felt the omens were very gloomy
At that stage confidence drained
Pleasingly he was backed in late 
Ran a really good race in second
And I was just pleased not to lose
  




PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Ascot 1.50
 
7/2 Mother Earth, 4/1 Flying Aletha
5/1 Golden Melody, 13/2 Setarhe, 8/1 Willabell
11/1 Dandalla, 12/1 Undertake, 16/1 Mahale
20/1 Cirrus, Valpolicella, 33/1 Ventura Vision
40/1 Follow Suit, Mariance, 100/1 Bonne Vitesse.

Albany Stakes

2yo Fillies Group 3 (6f)
 
The strongest angles in this race
Frustratingly do not apply this year
No winners have 3 or more starts
None have previous pattern form
  
If you look at the draw
Since the Stalls renumbered
Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
Have a 0-72 record since 2011

However this is a small field
And not sure how far we can trust that

To make it even murkier
We have an Australian raider too
FLYING ALETHA might easily win
But drawn 3 coming from a 5f race
Going to look elsewhere for a bet

WILLABELL is stuck in stall 1
No shock if the draw bias switches
But right now does not seem ideal
GOLDEN MELODY is drawn in 2
Winning at Haydock on soft ground 
Does not feel the best preparation 
VALPOLICELLA lacks positives
Unreliable yard not fancied last time
DANDALLA is rejected from a 5f race
And having weak breeding stats too
UNDERTAKE is the stables number 2
CIRRUS is well down the numbers

Shortlisting two horses
But with my best angles neutralised
These are little more than guesswork

Selection

£4 Each Way SETARHE 6/1

£2 Win Bet MOTHER EARTH 7/2






Ascot 12.25

6/4 Eye Of Heaven, 4/1 Lipizzaner, 11/2 Golden Pal
6/1 The Lir Jet, 10/1 Imperial Force, 12/1 Jojo Rabbit
20/1 Nelson Gay, 25/1 Cooperation, Ventura Tormenta
50/1 Andronicus Beau, Macho Pride, 66/1 Emirati Dirham
100/1 Papal Bee.

Norfolk Stakes

5f Group race for 2yo's
 
GOLDEN PAL an Australian raider
May not be the safest option here
The stables runners so far this week
Have done little and its softer ground 
   
Since the stalls renumbered
The winner of this race had low draws
None were drawn 12 or higher (0-16)
Not a strong angle but this is better

Ascot 5f races
Since 2011
Under 15 runners
Horses drawn 13 or higher
Have a 0-19 record in them

LIPIZZANNER drawn 14
May have the worst draw
You can never be sure on soft
But the above record is the record

But he has experience with 2 runs
And comes from the strongest yard
JOJO RABBIT is also badly drawn
  
If you look at this race since 1998
Horses from 6f races
That were not pattern races
Have a 0-31 record since then

LIPIZZANNER fails this
COOPERATION fails this
IMPERIAL FORCE fails this

THE LIR JET has every chance
Would rather have a better stable 
Broke the 2yo track record at Yarmouth
Subsequently bought by Qatar Racing
But worth remembering before that
He was only a cheaper purchase
Shortlistable and he is tempting
But not a stable I would want here

EYE OF HEAVEN is shortlistable
Most likely winner but short at 7/4

My heart says LIPIZZANER 
Normally does here from Coolmore
But my angles have issues with him

EYE OF HEAVEN gets the verdict
As I can criticise every other horse
Dettori rode him to win on his debut
First ride in 10 years for the stable

He was favourite at Newmarket
No mean feat on debut at a Grade 1 track
The horse (Tactical) that finished 3rd 
Won the Windsor Castle 2 days ago
He has the strongest credentials here

The staking below
Means we bet the favourite at 11/8
With stakes back on the third favourite

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet EYE OF HEAVEN 7/4

£1.50 Win Bet THE LIR JET 6/1






Ascot 3.00

2/1 Anthony Van Dyck, 9/4 Elarqam, 6/1 Defoe
13/2 Morando, 8/1 Fanny Logan, 9/1 Hamish
33/1 Communique, 33/1 Spanish Mission
50/1 Eagles By Day, 66/1 Alounak
66/1 Desert Encounter.

Hardwicke Stakes
Group 2 race over 12f

Normally a 4yo wins this
We had a 5yo winner last year
That was the first since 2007 

Normally the 4yo winners
Had between 5 and 11 starts

ANTHONY VAN DYKE has 15
Thats overexposed for a 4yo

The last 11 winners aged 4 
Had the following career runs
10 8 7 9 7 5 7 11 8 11 8 

He has 4 runs more than any
May not stop him winning this
But he fails one of my generics
His best numbers are on fast

FANNY LOGAN is a 4yo
Lots to like about his profile
But she is the only filly in the race

HAMISH is a lightly raced 4yo
But he has a nasty absence here
Every recent winner of this race
Came from a Listed or Group race
HAMISH the only one that does not
Puts him an unsafe place statistically

COMMUNIQUE is very exposed
More runs than any recent winner

MORANDO is a 7 year old
My records go back to 1980
None as old as him have won
He also has a nasty absence
 
ELARQAM ran 12 days ago
Hard to know what to expect here
Haydock on soft last time not ideal
That can take a lot out of a horse
ELARQAM has never ran beyond 10f
Feel he should stay as far as this
But unclear if today he will show it
One thing in his favour in this race
He faces no 4 year olds that are safe
And none that have the ideal profile
So we could easily see a 5yo winner
  
Racing Post Ratings

1m 3f to 1m 5f
Good to Soft or worse

119 Morando
119 Morando
117 Defoe - Defoe
116 Morando
115 Morando
113 Communique
112 Defoe
111 Defoe
110 Fanny Logan - Communique
111 Hamish
108 Anthony Van Dyck 

MORANDO comes out best
But has his age against him

But  no "Ideal 4yo profile" this year
We can be lenient to older horses

DEFOE comes out second best
Just bothered about his last run
Well beaten only 14 days ago
None beaten so far so recently
Have won here with similar profiles

No strong view here
I do not have a safe 4yo profile
So going to play the race this way

Selection

£7 Win Bet MORANDO 6/1 +

£3 Win Bet DELARQAM 5/2






Ascot 3.35

3/1 Pierre Lapin, 5/1 Lope Y Fernandez
11/2 Golden Horde, 7/1 Kimari, 9/1 Millisle
12/1 Mums Tipple 16/1 Royal Crusade
16/1 Dubai Station 20/1 Shadn, 25/1 Royal Lytham
25/1Southern Hills, Ventura Rebel, 40/1 Pistoletto
50/1 Royal Commando, 66/1 Les Hogues
100/1 Aberama Gold.

Commonwealth Cup (6f)

Group 1 race
5 past renewals

MUMS TIPPLE drops from 8f
But was beaten 29 lengths last time
Feel that was too far to consider him
MILLISLE also drops from an 8f race
Don't want a filly dropping 2 furlongs
Well beaten only 12 days ago

LOPE Y FERNANDEZ drops from 8f
Placed behind Siskin in the Irish 2000
What worries me is the 7 day absence

Group 1 races
Since 1998
Any Distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
Over 4 career starts
Running under 11 days ago
Have a poor 1-50 record 
Males doing this were 0-43
ROYAL LYTHAM also fails this

LOPE Y FERNANDEZ feels unsafe
With such a short recovery time

Past winners of this race
Had 6 4 5 6 7 career starts
PIERRE LAPIN only has 2 runs
Given he has 272 days absence
He looks too inexperienced to me

Looked at every Group 1 race
Run over 5f 6f and 7f
None were won by a 3yo
Who had under 3 career runs
PIERRE LAPIN is rejected
DUBAI STATION needs to improve
His Numbers are not good enough
Especially his soft ground numbers


KIMARI is an Australian raider
The doubt must be 6f on soft ground
He could easily get swallowed up late

GOLDEN HORDE is first time out
Ground numbers distance fine
He ticks several boxes here
Will his trainer have him ready
Clive Cox in a Group 1 at Ascot
With months off makes me feel ill

ROYAL CRUSADE has 3 runs
He also has a long absence too
Drawn wide in 16 no certain to help
But I am fast running out of options
   
SHADN is an interesting outsider 
Didn't stay at the Breeders Cup (8f)
Looked progressive before that race
Proven on soft this is her best trip
    
Selection

£2.50 Each Way ROYAL CRUSADE 12/1

£2.50 Each Way SHADN 18/1-20/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4





Ascot 4.10

100/30 Santiago, 7/2 Berkshire Rocco
4/1 Al Dabaran, Born With Pride, 5/1 Nobel Prize
8/1 On Guard, 25/1 Punctuation, 100/1 Cloud Thunder
100/1 London Arch.

Queens Vase

1m 6f race for 3 year olds 
Now run over a shorter distance
Reluctant to use previous angles

PUNCTUATION ran 13 days ago
Beaten 23 lengths feels too far

Past winners had these runs
5 8 5 4 3 9 4 2 8 6 7 5 4
   
ON GUARD is a 3yo Gelding
None have won any race here
His 2 runs is a bit inexperienced 

BORN WITH PRIDE has 2 runs
Not sure I'd want a filly with two
Having been well beaten recently

AL DABARAN has 4 runs
But has a long absence against him
He fails the following breeding stat
Horses sired by Dubawi
Group races over 1m 6f +
Have won 5 races so far
Those aged 3 were 0-10
Those with under 12 runs were 0-21
Not the strongest of breeding stats
 
The last 13 winners
Show just 1 winner with under 4 runs
I would rather have more runs
But can accept 3 in a small field

SANTIAGO has 3 runs and an absence
The winner in 2015 had that profile
But he came from a Group 1 race
SANTIAGO comes from just a maiden
NOBLE PRIZE his stablemate
Has the same profile with 3 runs

BERKSHIRE ROYAL interests me
He has now had 5 career starts
Makes him the most experienced
That could be an advantage here
Especially having a recent run too

He comes from a Good trial race
The 2002 2003 2014 winners
All came from Lingfields Derby trial
They finished 2nd 3rd 4th there
Admittedly his absence is shorter

He has to prove he can stay 1m 6f
But so do the other horses as well
I like his profile more than those

Selection
 
BERKSHIRE ROYAL 4/1

Each Way







Ascot 4.40

6/1 West End Charmer, 8/1 Durston, 8/1 El Misk
8/1 Good Birthday, 10/1 Le Don De Vie, Medal Winner
11/1 Deja, 12/1 Al Muffrih, Dubai Future, 14/1 Dal Horrisgle
16/1 Universal Order, 20/1 Getchagetchagetcha
20/1 Johnny Drama, 25/1 Scarlet Dragon, 33/1 Indianapolis
33/1  Koeman, Protected Guest, 40/1 Dolphin Vista
50/1 Byron Flyer.

Duke of Edingburgh Stakes

Huge field
12f Handicap
No point wasting much time

Following last years angles
Which shortlisted 3 horses
Which finished 1st 3rd 4th
 
The last 20 renewals 
Horses aged 6 or more are 0-79
 
Horses down from 13f or more
Have a very modest 1-59 record
 
Horses from Pattern races
Listed or Group races are 0-51
 
Ascot 12f races
Since 2011
Any kind of race
Any time of year
13 or more runners 
Horses drawn 1-2-3-4
Have a 1-112 record in them

Provisional Shortlist

Le Don De Vie 16/1
West End Charmer 6/1
El Misk 11/1
Al Muffrih 16/1
Getchagetchagetcha 25/1
Good Birthday 11/1
Johnny Drama 18/1
Medal Winner  12/1


WEST END CHARMER drawn 3
DEJA also drawn low in stall 2
Both fail the draw statistics
GETCHAGETCHAGETCAH a 4yo
Has a long absence to overcome
From a yard I don't want to rely on 
JOHNNY DRAMA didn't feel safe

Shortlist

LE DON DE VIE 14/1
GOOD BIRTHDAY 11/1
MEDAL WINNER 12/1
AL MUFFRIH 
EL MISK 14/1

Need luck with the staking

If you look at the shortlist
The first 3 names on there
Come from sires
Who have never bred a winner
Over 12f or more in this class
They are all potential non stayers
So split staking the other pair


Selection

£2.50 Each Way EL MISK 14/1

£2.50 Each Way AL MUFFRIH 14/1





Gowran Park 7.45

100/30 Helvic Dream, 11/2 Feminista
6/1 Numberoneson, 6/1 Thundering Nights
7/1 Comfort Line, 8/1 Protagonist, Too Soon To Panic
12/1 In From The Cold, Innervisions.

3yo Handicap 9f

9 runners

The market is clueless
Reflects how messy this is
Most of these are hard to judge

I see no strong negatives 
More just resistible profiles

THUNDERING NIGHTS
IN FROM THE COLD
Both of these resistible
As fillies with just 3 races
Facing long absences too

INN FROM THE COLD ran 2 days ago
Not convinced he did enough that day
And has to prove he can stay this far
His sires winners over this far so far
Have only come in far lower grades
COMFORT LINE shares the same sire
Shares the same trainer as well

Horses aged 3
Sired by Alhebayeb
Running over 8f or more
Absent more than 4 weeks
Have a 0-55 record so far
COMFORT LINE fails this angle

HELVIC DAY is topweight
Should go well if he can stay 9f
He is rated 8lbs higher
Than every other horse in the race
I would see him as a positive

NUMBERONESON trained by Joseph
Looks a possible fly in the ointment
Not enough to like too hard to rule out
PROTAGONIST is in the same boat

Fitness 
Not always the important thing
When looking at 3yo handicaps
Sometimes other factors matter more
But it is the angle I am using here

With 7 of the 9 runners
Having absences of several months
FEMINISTA may be able to take advantage

She has raced twice in 8 days
Including 2 days ago at this track
Decent 2nd from a difficult draw

I see her as the fittest
The horse with the momentum

Much could go wrong
Maybe this could come too quickly
But happy with the price around 5/1
For a horse with her positives

Selection

FEMINISTA 5/1

Each Way

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