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Highlighted Bet

Split Stake  

Newbury 2.25

£6 Win Bet BELLA NOTTE 7/1-15/2-8/1

£4 Win Bet CARIBOU 13/8

 






Today's Message    
  

Suffocating schedule today

Which nobody can cope with

But feel less pressure today
As last Saturdays bet did win
It ended a poor Saturday run  
That was starting to grate me
 
Today is probably best seen
A message within a message



6 Cheltenham races
5 races at other tracks



Relaxed about Cheltenham
Just a meeting to stake low
And see what we can turn up
My best bets are elsewhere


11 Previews 

Kelso 12.50
Doncaster 1.10
Cheltenham 2.05
Newbury 2.25
Cheltenham 2.40
Doncaster 2.55
Newbury 3.00
Cheltenham 3.15
Cheltenham 3.50
Cheltenham 4.25
Cheltenham 5.00

 


Most of today

Competent but average
Parked the bus in a few races


Only these two bets
Came close to exciting me



Newbury 2.25

£6 Win Bet BELLA NOTTE 7/1-15/2

£4 Win Bet CARIBOU 13/8



Small nursery with 6 runners
Planning to bet the outsider
With a saver on the favourite
They have the fittest profiles
Proven heavy ground form
Hoping it gives them an edge





Newbury 3.00

SETARHE 5/1

Each Way



Best form and numbers
Most experience as well
But faces big improvers
Can she hold these off ?
Coming from the best trial
I think she may be able too





Friday's Review 

Heaviest message of the week
Cracks started to appear in parts
Saver bets played a valuable role
Saved us in 3 Cheltenham races 
The horse I really wanted to stake 
CRYSTAL DAWN won at Dundalk
But we missed the price with him
Could have gone with a win saver
Wish I had now that was a mistake
Instead I decided to replaced him 
Presentandcounting each way 3rd
Two obvious things to reflect on
The winner is just a better horse
He set off too quickly to get home
And he was overtaken for second
By a horse that was just inferior
When those early exertions told
Zomimus was beaten in a photo
He got matched at 1.13 in running
But an unraced horse nailed him
We came across as second best 
Just as I was praising our results
We were given a slap in the face
Annoying as my favourite bet won






PROFILES & PREVIEWS 



Kelso 12.50

5/4 Rocheston, 11/8 Chuvelo, 12/1 Trooper Turnbull
16/1 Bollingerandkrug, Saint Arvans, Tortuga Bay
20/1 Snowy Burrows, 40/1 Wheelbahri, 50/1 Fernhill Lad
100/1 The Silver Prince.

Maiden hurdle (2m)

Two horses standout

ROCHESTON from Paul Nicholls
Last seen 760 days ago in France
In a 3yo hurdle his only ever run

CHUVELO has 5 runs
Hurdling debut this year
Decent enough effort in 3rd

Played around with a few angles
Nothing too significant to report

CHUVELO gets the verdict
Not the biggest of horses
But he has that recent race
And was odds on that day 
Which on his hurdling debut
Can be seen as sign of confidence

Going to play it this way

Selection

Small Stakes

£9 Win Bet CHUVELO 5/4- 11/8

£1 Win Bet TROOPER TURNBALL 9/1






Doncaster 1.10

7/2 Laafy, 4/1 Fishable, 13/2 Cepheus
7/1 Iconic Choice, Tulip Fields, 8/1 Dash Of Spice
10/1 Battle Of Marathon, 10/1 Johnny Drama
16/1 Eddystone Rock, Everything For You.
 
12f Handicap

Not my cup of tea

LAAFY has had a good year
Very progressive in his 5 runs

Each one of those races
Racing Post Rating of at least 100
He could well outclass this field

The problem is
No past winners were like him
Coming from a Listed race 

And it's clear from past renewals
Horses aged 3 are easily best

Horses aged 4 or more
Have a 3-130 record since 2005
Those running in the past 4 weeks
Have a 0-85 record in them

The following horses fails this

10/1 Battle Of Marathon
16/1 Eddystone Rock
7/1 Iconic Choice
10/1 Johnny Drama

The 3 year olds in this race
Seem to have plenty to prove here
 
TULIP FIELDS is a 3yo
But she a filly and has 88 days off

FISHABLE is a 3yo
He is going up in distance
He is also sired by Dutch Art

Dutch Art 
His turf runners over 1m 4f +
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-44 record so far
 
His turf runners over 1m 4f +
Running in Class 3 or higher
On Good or softer ground
Have a 0-39 record so far

CEPHEUS is a 3yo
But as a Brian Meehan horse
And hammered 37 days ago
He leaves me cold

LAAFY should be taking this
But his profile is not that strong
For a short priced horse with topweight
So making him a saver bet here

LAAFY won in September at Ascot
DASH OF SPICE was 6th in that race

DASH OF SPICE could go well here
That was his 4th race of the year
Having had 23 months off the track

DASH OF SPICE may have needed it
He has been running himself fit this year
He only has 4-5 lengths to find
He should be fitter for that race
And has a weight pull as well

DASH OF SPICE flopped last time
But he ran without a tongue tie
Described as having a breathing issue
It caused him to throw in a bad run

You could not trust him
But he is a very big price
Running himself fit this year
He has dropped 11lbs this year
And we need extra cover in this race

Selection

£3.50 Each Way DASH OF SPICE  14/1 - 12/1

£3.00 Win Bet LAAFY 9/4






Cheltenham 2.05

 5/4 Allmankind, 4/1 Anna Bunina, 9/2 Botox Has
11/2 Stratagem, 10/1 Nordano, 20/1 The Pink'n
25/1 Zurekin.

4yo Hurdle
 
Past winners
Had the following lifetime runs
15 18 9 7 16 4 6 12 12 17 5

The last experienced winner
A certain Tiger Roll with 4 runs
Who only had 3 rivals that day
STRATEGEM has 3 career runs
With a long break he is opposed

THE PINK'N has a recent run
Could be on the bounce here
Was only a 33/1 chance last time
 
BOTOX Has only had 4 career runs
Long absence and a bit inexperienced
But looks one of the biggest dangers

ALLMANKIND has every chance
First time out but a Grade 1 winner
Sets a tough standard for these

ANNA BURINA a filly with 19 runs
Should not be underestimated here
A filly with 18 runs won this in 2018
She has the fittest profile in the race
She get the fillies allowance as well
She avoids penalties for her 2 wins
As they came in lower grade races
 
The strategy I like best
But the favourite out of the race
And go with a fit filly getting weight

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet ANNA BURINA 3/1

£3.50 Win Bet ALLMANKIND 7/4






Newbury 2.25

7/4 Caribou, 5/2 Mahaamel, 3/1 Twaasol
7/1 Bella Notte, 10/1 Et Tu Brute.

6f Nursery

BELLA NOTTE

She is the worst horse
Which is why she is bottomweight
She is 1lbs out of the handicap here
She is the only filly in the race
It would be easy to underestimate her

But this is heavy ground

She has just ran 4 days ago
Beaten in a photo on heavy ground
She is the fittest horse in the race

Runs in the last 6 weeks

4 Bella Notte
2 Caribou
1 Et Tu Brute
1 Mahaamel
0 Twaasol

There must be a very good chance
Proven on heavy ground as well
She could catch these horses out

MAHAMEL only has 2 runs

12 Past winners of this
11 of the 12 winners
Had 4 or more career runs
None of them had just 2 runs

This is also interesting

6f Nurseries
Any time of year
Any class of race
Run on Good to soft or worse

Horses from 7f or more 
Under 3 career starts
Have a 0-9 record in them
No horse has won a 6f nursery
That was run on soft ground
Doing what she is attempting
Only 9 tried to be fair 
But she does lack experience

TWAASOL has topweight
Has 49 days off the track too

9 or the 12 past winners
Ran within the past 13 days
TWAASOL has the longest absence
He also comes from a Group race
Which isn't really a good sign
ET TU BRUTE has a similar issue

Well beaten in a Listed race

But has draw excuses there

He is my biggest danger



CARIBOU 

Has a recent run
That was on heavy ground
He looks a sensible saver bet

I like this strategy
Proven recent runs on heavy
Betting the 2 fittest horses

Selection

£6 Win Bet BELLA NOTTE 6/1

£4 Win Bet CARIBOU 13/8





Cheltenham 2.40

13/8 Southfield Stone, 2/1 Pileon
11/4 Not That Fuisse, 8/1 Coole Cody

Novice Chase 2m 4f

Only 4 runners

Little to go on here
Every past winner of this
Were aged between 5-6-7

No winners aged 8 or more
COOLE CODY is a 9 year old

Cheltenham Novice Chases
Run over 2m 1f and more
Class 2 or lower
Any time of year
Horses aged 9 or more
Under 5 Chase starts
Have a 0-40 record in them 
COOLE CODY fails this angle
So I'm going to look elsewhere

PILEON has no chase form

Cheltenham 
Novice Chases
Run over 2m 1f and more
Any time of year

Horses aged 6 or older
No chasing experience
Under 17 career starts
Coming from a non graded race
Record a modest 1-53 record
That winner was a 6yo like him
PILEON's profile is not strong

Going with chasing form
Shortlisting the following

SOUTHFIELD STONE
NOT THAT FUISSE

Official ratings are suggesting
SOUTHFIELD STONE is better
Rated 10lbs higher than his rival
But he lacks a run this season
Big horse I'd reluctant to assume
That he will turn up 100% fit in this
We could squeeze both in stakes
Buy the favourite our of the race
What this would basically mean
NOT THAT FUISSE would be 7/4
Against a chase debutant
And a horse who is the wrong age

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet NOT THAT FUISSE  100/30

£3.50 Win Bet SOUTHFIELD STONE 7/4




Doncaster 2.55

2/1 Wembley, 5/2 One Ruler, 11/2 King Vega
7/1 State Of Rest, 10/1 Megallan, 12/1 Cobh
16/1 Baradar, 20/1 Mac Swiney
100/1 Emperor Supreme.

Futurity Stakes

Looked at this midweek
There are 9 now running

Aidan O'Brien had 7 entries
WEMBLEY his only runner
Which could be significant

Made the points midweek

The last 20 winners
had 1-2-3-4 career starts
Horses with more were 0-35
WEMBLEY fails this statistic
He looks a bit too exposed
But he offers the best figures

STATE OF REST is unsafe
He also has more than 4 runs
He also fails this breeding stat 
Starspangledbanner offspring
Running over a mile or more
In Class 2 or higher are 0-31
 
Midweek Shortlist

KING VEGA
ONE RULER

ONE RULER 7/2  
Does make each way appeal

But he needs to improve again to win 
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
He is well behind Wembley's numbers

WEMBLEY did a figure of 119 last time
That is the 2nd best figure of the year
Only St Marks Basilica has beaten that

If you look at past renewals
His rating 119 wins most past renewals

Had a relook at horses
Who ran in this with 5 or more runs
Most of the 35 that tried and failed
Were not fancied and bigger prices 
So going to ignore that 0-35 angle
 WEMBLEY started to feel safer

Decided to split stake this race
Horses with the superior numbers

Selection

£6 Win Bet ONE RULER 7/2  

£4 Win Bet  WEMBLEY 6/4







Newbury 3.00

11/4 Little Kitten, Love Is You, 11/2 Setarhe
6/1 Little Rollright, 7/1 Gift List, 10/1 Al Fahdaa
12/1 Sankalpa, 25/1 Setantii Girl, 33/1 Coul Queen.

Radley Stakes

2yo Fillies Listed race (7f)

The Racing Post say

" SETARHE has the best form but she's fairly
   exposed now and faces promising types"

That is a theory
But the last 8 winners
Had 8 4 1 2 6 7 3 6 runs
So having 6 runs seems fine

I like the experience
I like the recent race too
Especially on heavy ground

I also like her previous run

The Oh So Sharp Stakes
The best trial race for this

Horses from this race
Beaten in the Oh So Sharp
But not by more than 6 lengths
Have a 4-10 record in this race
SETARHE has this profile 
I like her chance each way

Dangers could come anywhere

LOVE IS YOU has 1 previous run
It was 7 weeks ago and this is heavy
Once raced horses have won
The 2016 winner did it off 50 days
But on heavy ground hardly ideal

LITTLE KITTEN only has 1 race

AL FAHDAA has 59 days off
No horse with 2 or more runs
Has won this absent over 35 days

Hard to rule out these and others
Even if we can pick faults with them

I just see one positive
She has a decent profile
She is a good price each way
And I like best trial races


Selection

SETARHE 5/1

Each Way





Cheltenham 3.15

5/1 Tobefair, 6/1 Flinck, 7/1 Neville's Cross
8/1 I'd Better Go Now, 10/1 Honest Vic, Lock's Corner
10/1 Story Of Friends, 12/1 Ballon Onabudget
14/1 Champagne Court, Sirobbie, The Devils Drop
20/1 Goodbye Dancer, Kansas City Chief, Minella Warrior
25/1 Vaniteux, 33/1 Cotswold Way,  33/1 Speredek
66/1 Bailarico.

3m Handicap Hurdle

Tend not to cover this handicap
Many horses are not too busy
Qualifying here for the march festival
As this is a Pertemps hurdle qualifier

TOBEFAIR is a 10yo
Fails a few first time out angles
Would not see him as a safe option
FLINK is stepping up over 4 furlongs
Not safe enough with 1 run in months

Based on 11 past renewals
I would demand the following

Horses aged 5-6-7-8-9
Over 7 career starts
Over 5 hurdle starts
Not coming from a Listed hurdle
Not coming from Grade 2-3 class
Either a run within the last month
Or being a seasonal debutant

Does not help much
But the horses I shortlisted
Based partly on the above angles
  
SIROBBIE 16/1
LOCK'S CORNER 20/1
I'D BETTER GO NOW 7/1
CHAMPAGNE COURT 14/1

SIROBBIE needs a career best
On a track he has never ran on
LOCK'S CORNER has concerns
Coming here from a chase victory
And trained by Jonjo O'Neill

We will do well
To get anything out of this race
But playing the race this way

Selection

Small Stakes

£4.20 Each Way CHAMPAGNE COURT 12/1

£1.50 Win Bet I'D BETTER GO NOW 7/1





Cheltenham 3.50

4/1 Manofthemountain, 5/1 Cogry, 5/1 Frodon
7/1 West Approach, 8/1 Cloth Cap, 10/1 Captain Chaos
12/1 Bob Mahler, Cobra De Mai, Perfect Candidate
14/1 Sensulano, 20/1 Vivas.

Handicap Chase 3m 1f
13 Past renewals

FRODON is the class horse

Rated 164
Faces a 0-147 class field
That is a significant angle 
 
You could go down the class route
Assume he should beat a 0-147 field
Having won Cheltenham's Ryanair
Thats a perfectly legitimate position
  
You could go down the weight route
Which mixes his age absence weight
And look at his chance so differently

Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any Class
Any time of year
Since 2004

Horses with 11 + Chase runs
Absent over 7 weeks
Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-128 record
FRODON fails this

COBRA DE MAI has 1 run this year
Beaten 41 lengths in that race
That seems a bit too far to me
He also comes from a 2m 5f race
Horses from 2m 6f or shorter
Have a modest 1-41 record in this

VIVAS has race once this year
But he is 6lbs out of the weights
 
Past winners of this race
Had the following Chase runs
7 23 18 6 12 12 19 14 8 8 8 19
All past winners of this
Had at least 6 Chase runs

Horses with under 6 chase runs
Have a 0-26 record in this race
SENSULANO only has 4 chase runs
Not for me on his seasonal debut

MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN has just 5
He'd be the least experienced winner
Having 5 is within the margin of error
But he only has 8 career starts 
All past winners had 11 or more
Those with fewer than 8 are 0-17
MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN fails both angles

PERFECT CANDICATE is too old
Do not want a 13 year old in this race

COGRY a very exposed 11 year old
Has 11 more chase runs
Than any past winner of this race
You wouldn't rule him out of this
But he has never won off this mark
And in no hurry to bet a 11yo 
This may or may not be relevant 

Cheltenham 
Handicap Chases
Non Graded races

Any distance 
Any time of year
Since 1998
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 28 days
Have a modest 6-261 record
Those with over 26 chase runs
Have a 0-64 record in them
COGRY fails this statistic
 
WEST APPROACH is a 10yo
He is a seasonal debutant
His stables runners this year
May well be needing a run 
The last 11 winners of this
Were younger than him as well
Don't feel drawn to him 

9 of the last 11 winners
Had the following profile
 
Aged 7-8-9
Absent over 100 days
At least 11 lifetime runs
Between 6 and 23 Chase starts
Under 11st 10lbs 

Horses with this profile

CLOTH CAP 8/1
CAPTAIN CHAOS 11/1
BOB MAHLER 10/1

CAPTAIN CHAOS is an option
But has never won off this rating
Never won in a field of 8 or more
Never won on Good to soft or better
Never won in October before
He will miss out from the shortlist

CLOTH CAP looks best of those

FRODON as the class horse
Could be a saver or a place bet here

Paul Nicholls worryingly says

" He still looks a shade on the burly side 
  and is bound to improve for the run."

I could not bet him to win
Not failing a 0-128 stat and not 100% fit
But most of these are seasonal debutants
Few of them can escape criticism either
This is not the biggest of fields either
And he has a massive class advantage
He is still only an 8 year old

FRODON as a place bet may work
The selection trained by Jonjo O'Neill
I would not want to trust him each way

This could all look very embarrassing
But there is some method behind it

Selection

£6 Win Bet CLOTH CAP 13/2

£4 Place Bet FRODON 6/4






Cheltenham 4.25

5/2 Minella Encore, 11/4 Streets Of Doyen
4/1 The Macon Lugnatic, 5/1 Poppa Poutine
7/1 Polish, 10/1 Another Stowaway.
 
3m Novice Hurdle

POPPA POUTINE is a 4yo

June to October
Novice Hurdles 3m +
Horse aged 4
Under 3 hurdle runs
Have a 0-31 record since 2008
POPPA POUTINE looks inexperienced
Especially coming from a 2m race

19 Past renewals
None were aged 8 or more
ANOTHER STOWAWAY is an 8yo
Last ran over hurdles in 2018
Feel there are safer options

Horses with 1 run this season
Won 8 of the 19 past renewals

Those winning last time 7-21
Those beaten last time 1-21
POLISH was beaten last time out
None came from short of 2m 4f
POLISH has this problem as well

MINELLA ENCORE won last time
Shortlistable on the above angle

THE MACON LUGNATIC is a 6yo
Last seen when winning in March
Could win but not a stable I like

STREETS OF DOYEN is interesting
He comes here with a W W W record
His issue is the 6 day absence
Will that help or hinder his chance
Horses running within 12 days
Have a 0-10 record in this race

Going to split stake this race
MINELLA ENCORE becomes a 2/1 bet
Stakes just about back on the favourite

Selection

£7 Win Bet MINELLA ENCORE 100/30-7/2

£3 Win Bet STREETS OF DOYEN 2/1-9/4






Cheltenham 5.00

5/1 Jen's Boy, 6/1 Lillington, 7/1 Buster Edwards
7/1 Plantagenet, 8/1 Ballymalin, Call Me Vic, Osca Loca
10/1 Alminar, Bermeo, 14/1 Boughtbeforelunch
14/1 Lough Salt, 33/1 Ecossais, 66/1 Young Turk.

Handicap Chase 3m 1f

Amateur riders

Starting with a statistic

Cheltenham 
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any Class
Any time of year
Since 2004
Horses with 11 + Chase runs
Absent over 7 weeks
Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-128 record

CALL ME VIC fails this 0-128 angle
BALLYMALIN also fails this statistic

Last years race
Went to a seasonal debutant
The previous 10 winners had prep runs
ALMINAR has a 230 day absence today
Not for me as a 7yo with 11st 5lbs

YOUNG TURK is topweight
Yet got hammered last time out
Downgraded from Gordon Elliot
To a trainer with a 0-146 record

ECOSSAIS was trained abroad
His 3 runs since coming to the Uk
Have all been well beaten stinkers 
OSCA LOCA looks on the bounce
And is going up so far in distance

BOUGHTBEFORELUCH is unsafe
Hammered 39 lengths first time out
Needed a better race last time out

BERMEO has recent runs
Short of class but has no weight
Horses with under 10st 6lbs
Have a modest 2-52 record in this
Both winners were less exposed
Bottomweight yet 19 chase runs
Suggests he may lack the class

LILLINGTON ran 9 days ago
That obviously catches my eye
He has the fittest profile here
But 11st 10lbs is a tough weight
And the jockey would be a worry
He is the least experienced pilot
Has only had 3 rides under rules
Hammered in all 3 of those races

LOUGH SALT has a chance
But he is an exposed 9 year old
He has never won over fences
Never ran at this track before
And may prefer a smaller field

BUSTER EDWARDS has 2 recent runs 
Done little wrong could be the one

JEN'S BOY is a lightly raced 6yo
So was the 2016 winner of this race
He looks very well treated off 115
Obviously inexperience and track
Factors he will have to overcome
But he looks a serious player to me
 
PLANTAGENT 2nd in last years race
Should go well with 2 prep runs
Despite being older and more exposed
Going to use him as a place saver
 
Selection

£6 Win Bet JEN'S BOY 5/1
 
£4 Place Bet PLANTAGENT 11/8-6/4

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