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Ayr 1.10
Ayr 1.40
Ayr 3.10
Bath 3.35
Southwell 3.50
Bath 4.40
Southwell 5.35
Bath 5.50
Bath 6.20


3 Horses 

Clear and obvious chances
Should all be going very close
Could be each way double bets
 
Ayr 1.40 - SOARING STAR 13/8 

Southwell 3.50- EL BORRACHO 13/8 - 7/4  

Bath 5.50 - TILSWORTH ROSE 11/4

Not a strategy I want to deploy
At least not for any staked bet
Especially as later non runners
Could spoil any well crafted bet
 
An each way treble pays over 30/1
But that's maybe asking too much

There are a few speculative races
So we will be having some losers

Interesting previews
None that offer strong bets

My personal best bet
Will not appeal to many

Bath 5.50 
TILSWORTH ROSE 11/4
Each Way

I suppose I could highlight her
But this feels a bit too extreme

Unfortunately
It is an each way double day

If you gave me a £10 free bet
And said please don't lose it all
I'd stake that tenner this way
And will make it my best bet

Today's Best Bet

2 Each Way Doubles


Ayr 1.40 - SOARING STAR 13/8 
Southwell 3.50- EL BORRACHO 13/8 - 7/4

£2.50 Each Way Double


Ayr 1.40 - SOARING STAR 13/8 
Bath 5.50 - TILSWORTH ROSE 11/4

£2.50 Each Way Double

Just one of those days
Where the each way double
Offers more safety and profit
Than any more standard bet

Not going to bother staking it



Future Betting Angles

Working on a way

I can bring it back daily

The next message

Will have a bet in this column







Sunday's Message 
 
Experimenal bet free message
Looking back for explanations
What bets went right or wrong
And see if I made many mistakes
Neither of the Cartmel bets won
Away At Dawn 2nd to a 66/1 rag
Beat the favourite so vindicated
But ran into an extreme outside
Don't feel we did anything wrong
Diodorus was beaten in the next
Got that race completely wrong
My view is the drifting Diodorus
Was simply not fancied to win it
Ready Freddie Go a nice winner
He put us back on an even keel
Stony Of Destiny a second at 5/1
With all his talent and his quirks
And Sandown bets needing luck
Maybe I staked that one wrong
We should have gone each way
Hard Solution and a saver lost
He was another drifting all day
Never smelt fancied at any time
Top Billing won to steady things
Wolverhampton was my best bet
Olivers Pursuit well backed lost
Don't have any major concerns
I think the stable are unreliable
Feel he was given a rubbish ride
Teddy Boy a solid each way 2nd
Did exactly as I thought he would
Don't feel I made a lot of errors
Got some right and some wrong
One or two beyond our control
Overall I do not feel out of form


 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS 




Ayr 1.10

4/1 Harswell Prince, 5/1 Bobby's Rose, 6/1 Max Oclock
7/1 Full Of Sass, 10/1 Nacho, Spartakos, Voodoo Whodoo
12/1 Shawshank, 16/1 Cool Dandy, Maximum Ris
18/1 Stitcher, 20/1 Vivacious Boy, 25/1 Go Go Luna.

5f Nursery

I'd be wary about certain groups 
The lightweights who lack class
The very high drawn may struggle

Class 6 nurseries
Run over 5f and 6f
Since 2001
Any time of year
Horses with under 3 runs
Have a 0-12 record in them

BOBBYS ROSE has 2 runs
Only 12 tried but none have won
In the lowest Class of race
So going to oppose her

Purely on his positives
Numbers Experience Weight Draw
HARSWELL PRINCE looks the one

One could improve and beat him
But you will be lucky to find 3 horses

He would be my selection
I'd rather bet him each way myself

Selection

HARSWELL PRINCE 5/2

If he is 11/4 or more
I would bet him each way

FULL OF SASS is interesting 
On the positive side last time
She split 2 horses rated 74-76
Who would both be odds on in this
She was of course getting weight
On the negative side her sire
Has a modest 1-95 record so far
His turf runners are 0-55 as well

If I was betting win only
She would be a cheap saver option

Selection

Option 1

HARSWELL PRINCE 5/2

Each Way


Option 2

£9 Win HARSWELL PRINCE 5/2
£1 Win FULL OF SASS 10/1-12/1

I prefer Option 1

But plenty won't like that

HARWELL PRINCE is 5/2
But she could drift out a bit
May get 11/4-3/1 a bit later on
Don't see this as bet material





Ayr 1.40

2/1 Amniarix, 3/1 Soaring Star, 5/1 Gumra
6/1 St Anne'S, 7/1 Sweet Joanna, 20/1 Butterfly Lounge
20/1 Grandads Best Girl, 25/1 Clarity Bay
25/1 Mazastep, 100/1 Heer Me

6f Novice (3yo)

AMNIARIX is unraced 
Not a profile I would choose
 
Given the second favourite
SOARING STAR has 5 races
The last of these 7 days ago
He is clearly the fittest horse

Not my favourite trainer
And he coming down in distance
But he has the best positives
When you consider other horses
Include some unraced fillies 

AMINARIS may have more class
But unraced drawn 9 is not ideal

Ayr 
5f 6f 7f 8f
Under 13 runners
Unraced horses
Drawn 9 or more
Have a 0-25 record since 2004
Not a brilliant angle
But none have done this
The record since 1997 is 1-41
AMINARIS is not that well drawn

SWEET JOANNA is well backed
Half-sister to Happy Romance 
The Weatherbys Super Sprint winner  
Could win but I prefer experience

SOARING STAR gets my vote
Hate to say it but I have to
He looks an each way double bet

Selection

SOARING STAR 13/8

Win Bet





Ayr 3.10

5/1 Sienna Dream, 6/1 Al Mansoura, Big City, Equidae
13/2 Bumbledom, 8/1 Our Dave, 12/1 God Of Dreams
14/1 Balata Bay, 14/1 Destination Aim, 14/1 Jessie Allan
16/1 Lucky Violet, Pudding Chare, 20/1 Star Cracker
33/1 Exchequer
 
7f Handicap

Open race
Would have liked more time

AL MANSOURA is a filly
She only has 2 career starts
She steps up from 5f to 7f
Seems a very dangerous profile

7f Handicaps
Run on turf
Any time of year
Any Class of race
Fillies from 5f races
Under 20 career runs
Have a 0-62 record
AL MANSOURA fails this

Ayr has 24 of these races
Run doing August + September

Interesting all 24 winners
Were from the top 7 in the weights
Those from 8 in the weights
Had a 0-67 record in those races

If you choose a horse
Who is among the 7 topweights
Who runs within 4 weeks 
Coming from 6f 7f 8f races
You find 24 of the 25 winners

The shortlist
With a bit of added leniency 

9/2 Big City
10/1 Our Dave
8/1 Bumbledom
5/1 Sienna Dream
9/2 Equidae


Going to play it this way

£4 Each Way EQUIDAE 9/2

£2 Win Bet BIG CITY 9/2





Bath 3.35

3/1 Eagles Dare, 4/1 Infinite Beauty, 9/2 Coul Kat
5/1 Baton, 13/2 Twilight Flame, 15/2 Mister Allegro
14/1 Cuban Fox, 16/1 Devil's Cub 33/1 Tempah
33/1 Choral Evensong, Right Proud, 
 
8f Nursery

Guessing game
 
EAGLES DARE the topweight
Has 2 runs and sets the standard

One point of interest
Do we want a horse with 2 runs ?
Well none have tried to win at Bath
None at any time of the season

EAGLES DARE - 2 runs
INFINITE BEAUTY - 2 runs
COUL KAT- 2 runs

They are the first horses
To run in an 8f Bath nursery
Having had 2 previous runs

Similar races at this time of year
Show you can win with just 2 runs
But none have yet in Class 6 races

On this track
Knowing we have to guess
Mine would be an experienced type
 
Acceptable profiles

BATON
CUBAN FOX
DEVIL'S CUB 

BATON has plenty of experience
But looks quite a small horse
DEVIL'S CUB beat him last time
When 5th and 6th in the same race 
Felt he might beat Baton again

Shortlist

CUBAN FOX 8/1-9/1
DEVIL'S CUB 7/1-8/1

Selection

Small Stakes

£4.50 Each Way DEVIL'S CUB 7/1-8/1

£1 Win Bet CUBAN FOX 8/1-9/1






Southwell 3.50

6/4 Ultimate Getaway, 2/1 El Borracho, 4/1 Leroy Leroy
11/1 Divine Gift,  20/1 Edward Blue 33/1 Hala Princess
50/1 Roundhead, 66/1 Ebnal Explorer.

Novice Hurdle 2m 

EL BORRACHO

5 Year old
Won a Maiden Hurdle last time
Similar races August-September
Show horses his age doing that
Have a very smart 7-12 record in

Now none were as exposed as him
He does have 32 races on the flat
So he is not a very close match 
But his opponents offer less positives
LEROY LEROY is a flat 4yo
Sired by Compton Spirit a sprinter
DIVIVE GIFT bring doubts on profile

ULTIMATE GETAWAY is a 6yo
No hurdling experience at all
Comes from a recent bumper

His numbers are good
That tells me he is above average
But similar races show problems

August and September
Novice Hurdles over 2m
Horses from Bumpers
Running within 4 months
Have a 1-38 record in them
Those aged 5 or more 0-18

August September October
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from Bumpers
Running within 110 days
Have a 0-63 record
ULTIMATE GETAWAY fails this

No surprise if he wins anyway
But surely the better option here
Is the younger hurdles winner

Selection

EL BORRACHO 13/8-7/4

Win Bet





Bath 4.40

2/1 Emerald Fox, 5/1 Heleta, 5/1 Jungle Boogaloo
5/1 Mr Zee, 15/2 Lafontaine, 10/1 My Lady Claire
16/1 Sablet, 20/1 Encashment, 20/1 Yukon Thunder
33/1 Bean Chlonard, Erika, 33/1 Sea Willow, 
40/1 Girl Of Dreams, 50/1 Dilly The Pink.

8f Classifield race
22 Similar races in August/Sept

Interesting race to consider

14 runners
11 of them are 3 year olds

Checked out age statistics
There are no strong clues there
I was against the following types
YUKON THUNDER up 2 furlongs
SABLET going down 3.5 furlongs
HELETA with a long absence
MY LADY CLARE 1 run in months
LAFONTAINE has one major flaw
She is a filly with 1 run in 280 days
22 Similar Classified stakes races
No winners had 1 run this year (0-23)
MR ZEE may be too inexperienced
Similar races show
Horses with under 6 runs
Have a 0-34 record in them
SABLET with 2 runs also fails this

Shortlist
 
EMERALD FOX 3/1-7/2

May be 2 years older than most
But She is fit and running well
She could be a sensible saver

JUNGLE BOOGALOO is a 3yo
She was just behind Emerald Fox 
When they ran in the same race
She is a player not worried by draw
But coming from this stable
 You can not know what to expect
But she could reverse that form

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet JUNGLE BOOGALOO 5/1

£2.50 Win Bet EMERALD FOX 3/1-7/2




Southwell 5.35

3/1 Hidden Depths, 4/1 Racing Spirit, 5/1 Little Saint
7/1 Booyakasha, 10/1 Ardglass Star, 12/1 Wherewouldugetit
14/1 Forchena, 14/1 Jesse Jude, 20/1 Dorado Dollar
14/1 Havana River, Timetobenefit, 33/1 Gold Man
33/1 Strategic, The Darley Lama.

Novice Handicap Hurdle 3m

More interested than confident
So much can go wrong in this race

20 Similar races 
These races are pretty rare

HIDDEN DEPTHS is opposed
Sired by Dark Angel

Dark Angel
National Hunt runners
None have won beyond 2m 5f (0-25)
Just taking his hurdle runners
None have won beyond 2m 5f
Those running over 2m 3f + are 1-75
Will he stay an extended 3 miles here ?

Other doubts
Seasonal debutants underperform

BOOYAKASHA has 899 days off
DORADO DOLLAR is first time out
STRATEGIC has the same problem
TIMETOBENEFIT a mare with a break
HAVANA RIVER the same problem
GOLD MAN another with an absence

JESSE JUDE has 1 run in 13 months
Well beaten in that and may not be ready
THE DARLEY LAME lacks positives
FORCHENA a mare ran 8 days ao
Beaten 30 lengths is a bit too far
ARDGLASS STAR is a 6yo
Just 1 run in several months
Pulling up in that hardly ideal

Shortlist

WHEREWOULDUGETIT at 10/1
Could have a small chance in this
But weak stable and not many positives

RACING SPIRIT won last time
Has to be shortlisted in a bad race

LITTLE SAINT has decent recent runs

I'd make sure
If Little Saint or Racing Spirit won
We could not lose on the race
But all we can do here is guess

Selection

Small Stakes

£4 Each Way LITTLE SAINT 9/2-5/1

£2 Win Bet RACING SPIRIT 5/1






Bath 5.50

2/1 Sovereign State, 11/4 Tilsworth Rose
15/2 Fantasy Justifier, 9/1 Creek Harbour, The Mackem Rocket
14/1 Poppy Jag, 20/1 Aghast, Crimson Princess, Sugar Plum Fairy
25/1 Storm Lightning, 33/1 Charles Le Brun, Shaun's Delight
50/1 Inverarity, Lokal Heroine, Love Not Money.

5.5f Classified Stakes

Trappy race

SOVEREIGN STATE is a 5yo
Although unexposed  with 13 runs
Having just 1 run since last October
Could be a major problem for him
Might even be on the bounce
Not a fit enough profile for me
So going to oppose him here
POPPY JAG has the same problem
THE MACKEM ROCKET with 4 runs
Looks on the inexperienced side

SUGAR PLUM FAIRY is very slow
 
TILSWORTH ROSE is interesting
With several recent runs on her side
Having had 30 career races so far
Best Racing Post Rating of only 52
Exposes her as a very modest horse
But this is a very modest race

FANTASY JUSITIER is a 9yo
Will he be ready with 4 runs this year
Could find a role for him as a saver
CREEK HARBOUR is hard to read
Maybe running himself fit right now
Stall 15 is a pig of a draw as well

I don't like it
Neither will many of you
But the obvious play here
Would be the each way option
On the fittest horse in the race

Selection

TILSWORTH ROSE 3/1-100/30

Each Way




Bath 6.20

11/8 Passional, 9/4 Bring The Money, 5/1 Georgette
11/2 Dubai Paradise, 12/1 She Strides On, 33/1 Ammayya
50/1 No More Promises.

2yo Novice 5f

BRING THE MONEY 

Sets the standard
Has the most experience
His last run was his worst
But drawn 11 of 11 at Leicester
I'd be inclined to forgive him that
In Leicester races over 6f
With under 12 runners in them
None won Drawn in stall 11
Since the stalls renumbered
He faces inexperienced horses (0-21)

PASSIONAL a filly with just 1 run
GEORGETTE the same problem

SHE STRIDES ON a filly absent 296 days
DUBAI PROMISE another with an absence
Having downgraded stables since then

We could see a big improver
But on the evidence in front of us
Find it hard to oppose the form choice

Selection

BRING THE MONEY 2/1-9/4

Win Bet

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