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Today's Message 

5 Previews 

Southwell 3.15
Ballinrobe 4.40
Chester 4.55
Chester 5.30 
Chester 6.00




Will drop a message soon
Decided to carry on today
May take a day off tomorrow



Only 5 previews
But some interesting angles



Starting later on

First preview 3.15pm
With an each bet at 9/2
Sensible percentage bet
Could easily win or lose


Ballinrobe 4.40
 
£4.50 Each Way PERRY OWENS  13/2 - 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet COBB AND CO 12/1 
 
3yo Hurdle 

The market leaders
Both looks possible negatives
One has some stamina doubts 
Sired by a 5f Group class sprinter
The second favourite is a filly
Doing something none have done 
We are forced to guess in this race
That's all I can do for the selections
Perry Owens has a decent profile
But no idea if he can jump or not


Today's Best Bet


Chester 5.30

£4 Each Way GALLIPOLI 6/1 
 
£2 Win Bet TRUE BLUE MOON 7/2- 100/30 


Probably the hardest race
That's covered in this message
Either of these could be the bet
I like Gallipoli's individual profile
Would not stake Richard Fahey
Unless I had to so just a best bet



Lets hope it's not a message too far





Saturday's Message

That was much better yesterday
It finished up W P L W W L L P W
Top of the message was in profit
The main highlighted bet a winner
Regal Reality won smoothly at 7/1
So very happy with the end result
Still went through dodgy moments 
Couple of short losers on the trot
But very happy with the Thirsk bet
Rarely back a winner at that track
So it was good to watch the double
That felt a very important message
Finding little and a no bet Saturday
Lovely to finish the week like that 




PROFILES & PREVIEWS 



Southwell 3.15

9/4 Perfect Grace, 7/2 Gerboise Borget
5/1 Coulonces 7/1 Pink Sheets, 8/1 Hot To Trot
12/1 Corrie Lake 14/1 Miss M, 20/1 Fleetwood Black
20/1 Highway One 20/1 Missthecuddles, 33/1 Call Me Madam
33/1 The Lion Queen, 66/1 Jeremy's Dancer
100/1 Someone You Love.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle 2m

Probably just 3 or 4 horses
Can lay serious claims to this race

The problem is most horses here
Have raced just once in months

PERFECT GRACE won last time
But is a 4yo with 1 run in 212 days
Not as if she is an unexposed sort
She has already had 15 career runs
CORRIE LAKE has 1 run in 9 months
Badly beaten just 11 days ago at 66/1

July August September
Mares' Novices' Hurdle
Any distance in these months

Horses from bumpers
Have a modest 3-92 record

Those absent over 110 days
Have a 0-37 record in them
FLEETWOOD BLACK fails this

Those with just 1 previous race
Coming from a bumper are 0-25
GERBOISE BOGET has this profile

Horses with Flat form
And no National Hunt runs at all
Have a modest record in these races
None had over 18 career runs
None were aged 6 or more
MISS M has both these problems
HIGHWAY ONE fails them as well

PINK SHEETS has a long absence
From a stable thats difficult to trust
 
Given the choice

COULONCES each way
Could be the percentage bet here
She is a 5 year old french recruit
I oppose her last time out over 2m 4f
She failed a nasty little angle last time
Having a hurdle debut over 2m 4f
Hopefully with natural improvement
She will have enough to at least place

Selection

COULONCES 4/1-9/2-5/1

Each Way




Ballinrobe 4.40

2/1 Calidus Mirabilis, 9/4 Sister Eliza
6/1 Perry Owens 8/1 Cobb And Co, Voice Of Hope
10/1 Little Brother 16/1 Bass Reeves, 20/1 Tommy The Hat
33/1 Blue Sky Thinker, 50/1 Money Mike 50/1 Belgoprince
66/1 A Mere Bagatelle 
 
3yo Hurdle

An interesting race

3yo Hurdles 
All year round
Any distance
Any Class

Horses with no hurdling from
Coming from a race on the flat
That was over 7f or shorter
Have a miserable 4-402 record

Three horses fail this

VOICE OF HOPE 8/1
TOMMY THE HAT 25/1
SISTER ELIZA 5/2

Those with 2 or more runs
Absent more than 34 days
Have a 0-232 record
VOICE OF HOPE fails this

Fillies
Who come from 7f or shorter
Have a miserable 0-119 record
Thats any of these 3yo hurdles
Run any time over any distance
SISTER ELIZA fails this profile

In fact fillies from 8f of shorter
Running within the last 4 weeks
Have a 0-74 record in these races
SISTER ELIZA fails this as well

Obviously these angles
Will only work if the opposition
Offers us a creditable alternative
BASS REEVES shows little class
LITTLE BROTHER ran 6 days ago
Beaten 35 lengths on hurdle debut
Wanted more than he offers

CALIDUS MIRABILIS

Should have a chance
Joseph O'Brien is very capable
Hurdling debut 7 days ago
Beaten 18 lengths worries me

Little time to improve
That was his sires first hurdler
Hot Streak his sire was a sprinter
18 career runs none beyond 6f
He has won Group races over 5f
Will he pass on enough stamina 

COBB AND CO is sprint bred
He has had no hurdling experience
But ran well on flat 8 days ago
Tough profile to read but a positive
As a horse called Falcon's Fire
Won with a similar profile at Bangor

PERRY OWENS has 5 runs
First time out over hurdles today
Like many no idea if he can jump
But his profile is perfectly acceptable
Can find 2 winners with similar profiles

We are guessing
But purely on profiles
I would shortlist only 2 horses

COBB AND CO 12/1

PERRY OWENS 6/1-132

Selection

£4.50 Each Way PERRY OWENS  13/2 - 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet COBB AND CO 12/1




Chester 4.55

11/4 Madreselva, 3/1 Different Face
4/1 Ready Freddie Go, 5/1 Cuban Breeze
7/1 Virginia Plane, 10/1 Power On
16/1 All About Charley.

5f Nursery

Nasty race with 7 runners

MADRESELVA is a filly
She has raced just twice
Taking on males with more runs
Hardly well drawn either here

August to November
5f Nurseries on turf
Any class of race
Fillies with under 3 runs
Absent more than 10 days
Coming from a 5f race
Have a 0-26 record in them
Not exactly a swashbuckling stat
But none did this beyond July
MADRESELVA is the 27th to try

I looked at fillies with under 3 runs
Those who were absent over 10 days
Had an inconclusive 0-14 record
Just feel she may come up short
CUBAN BREEZE a  filly with 3 runs
Drops in trip and rated just 66
Felt there were stronger cases
From horses higher up the weights

Prefer the Class horses
Topweight in this race

DIFFERENT FACE
READY FREDDIE GO

READY FREDDIE GO 

With 4 runs he is my preference
He has had an extra run on his side

Don't believe he stays 6 furlongs
Didn't stay 6f on his first ever run

He then ran well 2nd at 40/1 over 5f 

Ripon on his 3rd race was over 6f
He was badly drawn in a big field
Showed a lot of pace didn't get home
Last time back over 5f
He won easily at Musselburgh
Racing Post Rating of 81 there
Thats 5lbs better than any of these

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet READY FREDDIE GO 9/2

£3.00 Win Bet DIFFERENT FACE 3/1-7/2




Chester 5.30

5/1 True Blue Moon, 13/2 Gallipoli
7/1 Spirit Warning, 10/1 Asdaa, 12/1 Baby Steps
12/11 Hesslewood, 12/1 Penwortham, 12/1 Finoah
12/1 Gabrial The Saint, 16/1 Aces, King Of Tonga
16/1 Reputation.

7f Handicap

Tough race
Didn't want to write a lot of stuff

TRUE BLUE MOON

Saved on him at York
Feel he has a very fair chance
Moved from Joseph to Tim Easterby
Lightweight and well treated off 79
 
The strategy here

TRUE BLUE MOON saver
GALLIPOLI each way bet

Some of the reasons for this
Are problems other horses have
GABRIALTHE SAINT has stall 12
Non runners have helped the draw
But is is a bit short of recent runs

SPIRIT WARNING looks underraced
Having just 1 run since February
ASDAA has just gone off the boil
ACES hasn't reached fitness yet
FINOAH is underraced 
BABY STEPS going up 1.5 furlongs
KING OF TONGA isn't at peak


GALLIPOLI is in the right grade
He has a 0-20 record in Class 2 +

His career record

7f races
Class 3 or lower
Running within 5 months
Good or faster ground
Fileds of 8 or more
Has has a W W W L record

Selection

£4 Each Way GALLIPOLI 6/1 
 
£2 Win Bet TRUE BLUE MOON 7/2- 100/30 





Chester 6.00

6/4 Zamaani, 7/4 Mystery Smiles, 4/1 Regional
10/1 Fools Rush In, 14/1 Tom's Reign Beau
33/1 No Leci.

2yo Conditions race (6f)
Male horses only

ZAMAANI sets a good standard
Experienced with 4 career starts

MYSTERY SMILES only has 1 run
But she has plenty of potential

She has raced once before
Coming from 5f races
Statistically thats no problem
But of those who have done it
None had recent races
She is coming back quite soon
I would see her as a neutral
 
But on this track I feel far happier
With a horse who has 3 races more
Who has at least 14lbs + in hand 
If one improves to win fair enough
But staying with the proven horse

Selection

ZAMAANI 4/5

Win Bet

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