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Today's Message


First message of the week
Lets hope we can see it out
Racing is behind closed doors
Facing different kind of threats
Just have to take it day by day




Down Royal 1.50
Wetherby 2.00
Wexford 2.05
Taunton 2.15

Will be rusty today



Went to bed last night
Thinking I had a possible bet
In the Down Royal 1.50pm
The market has gone haywire
Now feel I could have it wrong



Feel my best bets
Have to be two split stakes



Wetherby 2.00

£6 Win Bet KISUMA 7/2

£4 Win Bet FLANAGANS FIELD 13/8
 
Didn't see this as a possible bet
Not enough juice in the prices
Not enough ability in the horses



Wexford 2.05

£5 Win Bet MY MIDNIGHT 4/1-7/2

£5 Win Bet GETAWAY GORGEOUS  4/5 - 10/11



Similar strategy here
Buy the favourite out of the race
Attack the vulnerable 2nd favourite
Hope 1 doesn't slip through the net



Both selections
Can be backed on Betfair
At bigger prices than the firms



Today's Best Bet


Wexford 2.05

£5 Win Bet MY MIDNIGHT 4/1-7/2 (5/1 + Betfair)

£5 Win Bet GETAWAY GORGEOUS 4/5 - 10/11





Sunday's Summary 
  
Following Saturdays car crash
Nice to bounce back on Sunday
The non staked bet at  Carlisle 
Won the race first past the post
But he was disqualified to third
My saver was awarded the race
Many people got paid out twice
I presume others will not have
Down to individual bookmakers
No confusion about the main bet
CHERIF DE L'ISLE 7/2 won easily
Little better than Irish handicaps
When we are offered four places
That maid up for Saturdays flop





PROFILES & PREVIEWS

     

Down Royal 1.50

2/1 Now Where Or When, 9/4 Bal De Rio
11/2 Wingin A Prayer, 6/1 Deealli, 10/1 Double Jemmy
12/1 Captain Mc, 16/1 Djasek, 20/1 Whirling Dervish
25/1 Mig Des Taillons, 33/1 Mezyan, 50/1 Ilikehim
50/1 Stansfield, Thimbleweed, 66/1 Second Symphony
66/1 Timber Tang Girl, Union Park, 100/1 Basrah Breeze
100/1 Mistertommyshelby, Smiling Emily, The Miser.

2m Maiden Hurdle

Fascinating race

That will probably make me look stupid

Don't believe in this tissue
Don't believe in the market

Huge field
Tons of deadwood

NOW WHERE OR WHEN
Has 1 run that was a over hurdles
He started 66/1 in that race 
He seems a strange favourite 
It's due to his Racing Post Rating
Which is the joint best in the race
The is a false assumption
He must improve from that run
That is not certain to happen

Similar races in March
Show once raced horses like him
Running within 84 days are 1-118
Win lose or draw not for me

DEEALLI the 3rd favourite
Didn't appeal much either 
Just 2 runs 1 over hurdles at 50/1
Beaten 24 lengths in that race
Coming from a very risky National hunt sire
He is sprint bred and from a sire
Without any hurdle winners so far
DEEALLI smells like a non stayer
 
BAL DE RIO

Right away
Looked the winner of this
Around 3/1 I felt that was big
When I went to bed last night
I felt sure he was my bet today
With an advantage in experience
And the fittest horse in the race

This morning trading around 3/1
He then too a radical drift out to 5/1
I could not understand that move
Maybe down to market manipulation
But alarm bells started to ring loud

Maybe I have overrated him
Or underrated the opposition
He is after all extremely exposed

CAPTAIN MC is unraced
Can't rule him out as some win
He could play a role as a saver

BAL DE RIO

Was a confident bet last night

Things are not as clear cut today

The market wobble and drift

Pushes me off an each way bet

Going win + Savers as 9/2 looks huge
As long as all things are as should be

Selection

£8 Win Bet BAL DE RIO 4/1-9/2 (6/1 + Betfair)

£1 Win Bet CAPTAIN MC 7/1-8/1

£1 Win Bet WINGIN A PRAYER 9/1-10/1




Wetherby 2.00

7/4 Hello Bob, 9/4 Flanagans Field
9/2 Kisumu, 6/1 Oceanus, 12/1 First Of Never
16/1 Vicky Cristina.

2m Handicap hurdle
Horses rated only 0-100

HELLO BOB is a mare
She has topweight in this race
Rated 99 she only faces a 0-85
You can argue she has a class edge
But she was well beaten last time
She only has 3 Novice Hurdle runs

March and April
Wetherby Handicap Hurdles
Horses from Novice/Maiden hurdles
Under 4 hurdle runs
Aged under 6 years old
Have a modest 1-44 record 
HELLO BOB fails this angle
I'm more persuaded by this one
Based on all tracks 


February March April
Handicap Hurdles
2m 2f and shorter
Horses from Non handicap hurdles
Under 4 hurdle runs
Running within the last 3 weeks
Have a 0-88 record in them
HELLO BOB shares this profile

This could be a better angle

Handicap Hurdles
2m 2f and shorter
Any time of year 
Mares
Non handicap hurdle last time
Under 4 hurdle runs
Running within 20 days
Beaten last time
Have a 0-119 record
HELLO BOB fails this angle
 
Don't like how quickly She is out again
After a heavy defeat just 18 days ago
Mixed with inexperience and a big weight
HELLO BOB is opposed

FLANAGANS FIELD is a 12yo
Not ideal but he is fit and in form
Has momentum winning 13 days ago

FIRST OF NEVER is a 14yo
Much less appealing well beaten last time
VICKY CRISTINA makes no appeal
Fails the same angles as Hello Bob

KISUMA has a 0-43 career record
Poor horse in a bad race
His numbers are worryingly low
But so to is his handicap mark
OCEANUS an 8yo with an absence
Can't be ruled out with any confidence

Playing it this way

Selection

£6 Win Bet KISUMA 7/2

£4 Win Bet FLANAGANS FIELD 13/8





Wexford 2.05

5/4 Getaway Gorgeous, 6/4 Flying Risk, 9/2 My Midnight
14/1 Springsteen's Girl, 16/1 Millyinthemiddle
25/1 No Memory, 50/1 Divine Approach, 66/1 Ballinacrae
66/1 Tara Gael, Trouble And Strife, 100/1 Gimligonnabelucky
100/1 Present Rock, Stowaway To Heaven, Toor Hawk.

Mares Maiden Hurdle (2m)

These races in March
Suggest we oppose one

Horses aged 5 or more
Running within 24 days
Have a 0-87 record in them

FLYING RISK fails this
Not keen on her 14 day absence

In a race with a lot of deadwood
I like the split stake option  here

Selection

£5 Win Bet MY MIDNIGHT 4/1-7/2 (6.4 Betfair)

£5 Win Bet GETAWAY GORGEOUS 4/5 (10/11 Betfair)






Taunton 2.15

6/4 Mille Sussurri, 11/4 Finisher
100/30 Caffe Macchiato, 8/1 After The Fox
8/1 Song Of The Hunter, 16/1 Presuming Ed
66/1 Dubai Key, Jewelinthename.

Maiden Hurdle (2m)

Unusual issues here
MILLE SUSSURR's profile is dodgy
FINISHER on paper the alternative  
Does not look that convincing either
Forces me into speculative options
None of these make much appeal
But if they are combined together
One of them might just come good  

MILLE SUSSURRI
He has 1 hurdle run
That was only 14 days ago
  
Maiden Hurdles
March and April
Any distance

Horses aged 5
1 Hurdle run before
Under 5 career runs
Running within 18 days
Return a 0-121 record
MILLE SUSSURR fails this

FINISHER could easily win instead
Numbers entitle him to be 2nd fav
But a small yard not a very big horse
Maybe a 2nd at Wincanton flatters him

None of the others are convincing
None of them stand out over the others
But grouped together look stronger
 
One option

Two Lay Bets

Lay Mille Sussarri at 11/8
Lay Finisher at 100/30

You get every other horse in the race
And would be getting 4/1 about those

That doesn't appeal much
So going to guess a solution

Selection

£5.50 Win Bet PRESUMING ED 12/1

£1.50 Win Bet AFTER THE FOX 8/1

£1.50 Win Bet SONG OF THE HUNTER 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet CAFE MACCHIATO 8/1

 
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