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7 Previews
2 courses

4 Redcar races
3 Exeter races

Nothing at Fairyhouse
Simply not enough time 
To do the All weather justice

Redcar 12.40
Exeter 12.55
Redcar 1.10
Redcar 1.40
Exeter 1.55
Redcar 2.10
Exeter 2.25


Selections decided earlier
Have had to be reshuffled

Because of Price changes
Ground and non runners



Redcar 1.10

£6 Win Bet REAL SMOOTH 4/1

£4 Place Bet HIGHLAND REEL 11/8

This is how I would stake this
Not everyone will get this on
The other alternative option
Each Way Real Smooth at 4/1 
One of a couple of races today
With alternative staking choices

 
 
Exeter 1.55

BRAVEMANSGAME 4/5

Win Bet

Exciting Novice Hurdler
Should be up to winning
But just too short to stake  


Exeter 2.25

Haldon Gold Cup

£6.50 Win ESPIRIT DU LARGE 6/1-13/2

£3.50 Win GREANETEEN 7/4

Not done this in years
You want a 6yo first time out
These are the safest profiles
I think Greaneteen might win
But he's a much shorter price
Would be shorter with a saver
So I have flipped flopped them


Hate myself for saying it
But there is no staked bet

None of these are suitable
Yet it is an interesting day







But for my best bet

Chosen in a stable market

Going with the Haldon Cup

Today's Best Bet

Exeter 2.25 

£6.50 Win ESPIRIT DU LARGE 6/1-13/2

£3.50 Win GREANETEEN 7/4

 



Monday's Review  

There were 4 races covered
We had one outright winner
One of he suggested options
Was an each way double bet
Both of these finished placed
The Kempton bets were beat
Cashel drifted badly last night
He was 6/1-13/2 in the morning
He drifted out to 12/1 later on
Of course missed the break
He was held up in last place 
Finished a never nearer 4th
A half hearted and tonic effort
Have doubts about that one
Never going to be a busy day
It was one of two short days
Planned rather than a day off






PROFILES & PREVIEWS





Redcar 12.40

2/1 Embolden, 100/30 Manzo Duro
4/1 Mount Ararat, 9/2 Straight Ash
7/1 House Deposit, 14/1 Dawry.

8f Seller
For 3-4-5 year olds

5 renewals
   
Horses aged 3
Have a 0-20 record in this

EMBOLDEN is a 3yo
MANZO DURO is a 3yo

How vulnerable are they
Probably as not as it sounds
Given this is a tiny field

MANZO DURO has 71 days off
That would concern me here

October and November
Selling races
Horses aged 3-4-5
3 year olds
Absent more than 17 days
Have a 0-44 record in them
MANZO DURO fails this

MOUNT ARARAT is a 5yo
Has raced only twice in 2020
Well beaten in both races
Can not trust his form-fitness
HOUSE DEPOSIT ran 8 days ago
Hammered in that hard to like

The way to go

May be the split stake bet

Not ideal at 5/1 and 4/5

Selection

£5 Win Bet STRAIGHT ASH 5/1

£5 Win Bet EMBOLDEN 5/6-4/5






Exeter 12.55

5/2 Ask A Honey Bee, 4/1 Nickelsonthedime
9/2 Es Perfecto, 6/1 Lydford Lad, 7/1 Kakamora
8/1 Bobhopeornohope, 16/1 Rockhamtom
25/1 Now Is The Winter 25/1 Shoot To Fame,
50/1 Fishy Story.

2m Novice Hurdle

No obvious negatives 

ASK A HONEY BEE is favourite
Has one extra weapon onside
He has Grade 1 Bumper form

I'd go with the two horses
With last time out hurdle wins
ES PERFECTO is the other
He is from a high class stable
Might have more improvement

I'd choose between 2 options

Option 1

£5 Win Ask A Honey Bee 10/11
£5 Place Es Perfecto 11/18

Option 2

£5 Win Es Perfecto 6/1-13/2
£5 Win Ask A Honey Bee  10/11

Going with Option 1
Don't feel confident here






Redcar 1.10

7/2 Highlight Reel, 11/2 Momtalik, 13/2 Jewel Maker
7/1 Real Smooth, 7/1 My Boy Lewis, 9/1 Clotherholme
9/1 Convertible, Pretty Pickle, 12/1 Be Bold, Rain Cap.

8f Handicap

50 similar races 

None of the 50 winners
Had under 4 career starts

CONVERTIBLE has 2 runs
Could be short of experience

Horses from 6f
Do not score very well
Without a very recent run
Without a good recent run
RAIN CAP does not offer this 
CLOTHERHOLME fails as well
 
MY BOY LEWIS has topweight
With 50 days off on soft ground
May find that a tough challenge
BE BOLD ran very recently
He was only a 40/1 chance then
Struggles to stay 8f on soft
MOMTALIK has average figures
Doubt his stamina on the ground
PRETTY PICKLE is unsafe
Flopped 3 runs on the trot
Filly who has to bounce back

JEWEL MAKER

I can see positives
But his profile is unsafe

Horses aged 5 or more
Coming from7f or shorter
Absent over 11 days
Have a 0-43 record in them
JEWEL MAKER fails this

Shortlisting 2 horse

REAL SMOOTH
HIGHLAND REEL

Not keen that both horses
Come up 2 furlongs in trip
So no each way selection

But they have recent runs
And have the fittest profiles

Selection

£5 Win Bet REAL SMOOTH 4/1

£5 Place Bet HIGHLAND REEL 11/10





Redcar 1.40

4/1 Josiebond, 5/1 Royal Regent, 6/1 General Joe
7/1 My Painter, 13/2 Roong Roong, 8/1 Middlescence
10/1 Harvest Day, 11/1 Ivors Involvement
12/1 Glencoe Boy

8f Handicap

Division 2 of the 1.10pm

50 similar races
 
Some of these
Just do not look safe

GLENCOE BOY is down 4f
MIDDLESCENCE is up from 6f
When underraced this season

IVORS ILVOLMENT is an 8yo
With just 1 run in 80 days now
MY PAINTER is a 9yo mare
Who has 6 weeks off the track

ROYAL REQUEST is an 8yo
Raced just twice in 14 months
He has ran once in 112 days
Must be underraced for his age
 
JOSIEBOND is a 4yo filly
She has to come up in distance
Not sure she did enough last time
Has to prove her stamina as well

ROONG ROONG is a 4yo filly
She is coming up from 5f to 8f
Just not an acceptable profile

Possibles

HARVEST DAY
GENERAL JOE

HARVEST DAY is a mare
Two poor runs in a row now
Not much soft ground form

GENERAL JOE ran 4 days ago
Was well beaten in that race
But he set a slow pace that day
Set the race up for the closers
Who swamped him down the rail
Not sure that race suited him
Forgive that it's a winnable race

The 3 shortlisted
Are an unconvincing duo
Both rely on last time excuses  

Selection

Small Stakes

GENERAL JOE 5/1-11/2-6/1

Each Way







Exeter 1.55

10/11 Bravemansgame, 11/4 Dal Horrisgle
6/1 Runswick Bay, 12/1 Talk Of Fame, 16/1 Allenby
20/1 Bellevarde Express, Getalead
33/1 Thomas Kershaw, 66/1 Le Crunch
100/1 Mello Grey, Saggazza.

2m 1f Novice Hurdle

BRAVEMANSGAME 

He could well be different class
Won a point to point 15 lengths 
Fetched £370,000 at the sales
Sold to a well known flat owner

That is a lot to pay

Beaten in his 2 bumpers
Nicholls commented at the time 
He was a massive horse
That had taken time to get fit

That's probably why
He was only 2nd this year
When making his hurdling debut
The odds on winner looked smart
Had already beaten Bravemansgame
There was a big gap to the third

If that race has got him fit
Then he could win this easily

DAL HORRISGLE is respected
Smart horse rated 95 on the flat
This is his hurdling debut today

RUNSWICK BAY 2nd on debut
May have found a hot little race
TALK OF FAME needs to improve

Their chance
May well depends on the favourite
How much he improves from debut

Taking the view

BRAVEMANSGAME should win
Justifying a big  purchase price

Selection

BRAVEMANSGAME 4/5-10/11

Win Bet





Redcar 2.10

7/4 Le Cheval Rapide, 11/4 Wizard D'Amour
13/2 Desert Boots, 7/1 Pivotal Time, 10/1 Umm Hurair,
20/1 Soller Bay, 20/1 Fury Night, 25/1 Come On Jack.

2yo Novice 7f

LE CHEVAL RAPIDE has 2 runs
Sets the standard here
Improved on his second run
That was over this course/distance

The big question

WIZARD D'AMOUR

Will he stay 7f on soft
Having his first ever race

Horses sired by Dutch Art
Produced 2 winners doing this
Both of these were fillies

Unraced male horses 
Sired by Dutch Art
Running over 7f
On Good ground or softer
Have a 0-45 record so far
WIZARD D'AMOUR fails this

I have to prefer
The favourite with 2 runs

Can any improve past him
UMM HURAIR may be able to do
But 50/1 on debut for Willie Haggas
Beaten 5 lengths just 13 days ago
Does not really offer enough

DESERT BOOTS has 1 run
He could be a bigger threat

LE CHEVAL RAPIDE

Advantages over Wizard Damour
With 2 runs against a debutant
And Wizard Damour's sire stats

But

May not be that simple

LE CHEVAL RAPIDE'S sire
Brings problems of his own

Horses sired by Estidhkaar
Running on Turf and not sand
Have a 0-28 record over 7f +
Have a 0-29 record on softer ground

If you thnk about those angles
You can see why last time out
He was caught very later on

Still the most likely winner
I was going with a split stake bet
£4 on LE CHEVAL RAPIDE
£6 on DESERT BOOTS 5/1  

But the favourite Sire stats
May be worse than Wizard Damour
And he may beat them both

Throw in this eye-opener

LE CHEVAL RAPIDE cost £8k
WIZARD D'AMOUR cost £200k

So now I having serious doubts

So the percentage bet
May well turn out to be this

Selection

DESERT BOOTS 5/1  

Each Way

 



Exeter 2.25

9/4 Greaneteen, 5/1 Global Citizen
6/1 Esprit Du Large, Glen Forsa, 8/1 Bun Doran
10/1 Not That Fuisse, 10/1  Vision Des Flos
14/1 Moonlighter, 14/1 Pink Eyed Pedro
33/1 Marracudja.

Haldon Gold Cup

Tend not to cover this race
But may be worth it today

This is a Graded handicap chase
So the following statistic applies

November and December
Graded Handicap Chases
Any Distance
Since 2006
8 year olds
Absent more than 56 days
Have a miserable 0-111 record

GLOBAL CITIZEN fails this
GLEN FORSA also fails this
One day this statistic will fail
But it's clear in the Autumn
8yo debutants badly struggle 
In Graded Handicap chases

BUN DORAN is a 9yo
Topweight with an absence
Not a negative despite all that
The 2018 winner was similar
Albeit in a much smaller field

15 of the last 16 winners
Were racing first time out
The only winner that wasn't
Was Edredon Blue in 2013
He won 9 days beforehand

Horses with recent runs
Beaten last time are 0-23
Going back as far as 1999

NOT THAT FUISSE fails this
VISION DES FLOS fails this
As do a couple of outsiders

6 year olds

They have the best record

Horses aged 6 are 7-21

Horses Aged 6
Seasonal debutants
Under 9 chase runs
Have a 7-16 record in this  
Paul Nicholls won 3 of them

GREANETEEN has this profile
ESPIRIT DU LARGE has this profile

GREANETEEN

High class prospect
4th at Cheltenham's festival
When clearly very inexperienced 
In the Paddy Power Gold Cup 
May have been laid out for this

ESPIRIT DU LARGE

He is another 6yo debutant
He is a Grade 1 Chase winner

When he ran at Cheltenham in March
He was 12/1 to win the Arkle Chase
Greaneteen in contrast
Ran in a Handicap Chase there

ESPIRIT DU LARGE is the value
GREANETEEN most likely winner
With the superior trainer onside

I need to bet both
Wish I could bet one each way
And have a saver bet as well
But prices make that a problem


Selection

£6.50 Win Bet ESPIRIT DU LARGE 6/1-13/2

£3.50 Win Bet GREANETEEN 7/4







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES   


Usa Election 
 
Latest Betting

Biden 1.64
Trump 2.58

My own bet over 12 months old 
Confidently placed back in 2019  
Before this pandemic arrived

A Pandemic that many say
Will cost Trump his victory

Every Poll is against him
Every Pundit seems so too

Ben Keith of Star Sports
Said in a video piece recently
His USA odds compiler told him
Go top price Trump every market
He believes he has no chance

Ben Keith also said
He has had his biggest lifetime bet
On Biden to win this around 1/2

Some unknown UK individual
Has placed a Million pound bet
Placed on Betfair for Joe Biden
 
In contrast Nigel Farage
Has placed £10k on Trump 15/8

The Million Pound Punter
Probably draws the conclusion
That 1/2 is a value for Biden
Given Polls have him clear

If you believe all those polls

Biden should be around 1/8 
Biden can be backed at 1/2
Because the market realises
There is that shy trump voter

My bet will depend on that

But I have far from given up  
I have some hope on my side
Polls may just be tightening
The attendance in his rallies
Some voters reluctant to show
That they will vote for Trump
  
If you back Trump to win this
The market has to be wrong
The pundits have to be wrong
The Pollsters must be as well 
It's happened before though

If I believe what my eyes see
Enormous turnouts in rallies
And in nearby towns as well
The silent Trump voter factor
I feel my bet is still in play

Not sure if It will be enough
Resigned to my fate if not

But something extraordinary 
Could still be possible here
That Million pound gambler
Obviously does not think so

But I wrote this last night
I was up early this morning
Trump traded at 2.9 on Betfair

But as I look right now

They want to be on at 2.58

That feels a massive move
In a very Betfair strong market
Biden has drifted out to 1.64

Hoping that is a reflection
Of momentum towards Trump
Who I want to win for my bet
Always trust betting markets
Rather than the opinion polls
That gives me some late hope






Ante Post Statistics

November 28th

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase

Topofthegame 5/1 Copperhead 8/1 Aye Right 12/1
Imperial Aura 12/1 The Conditional 12/1 Vinndication 14/1
Black Op 16/1 Danny Whizzbang 16/1 Hold The Note 16/1
Kildisart 16/1 Sam Brown 16/1 De Rasher Counter 20/1
Django Django 20/1 Regal Encore 20/1 Two For Gold 20/1
Secret Investor 20/1 Wholestone 20/1 La Bague Au Roi
Mister Malarkey 25/1 OK Corral 25/1 Siruh du Lac 25/1
Slate House 25/1 Ardlethen 33/1 Champagne Court  33/1
Ballyoptic 33/1 Beware The Bear 33/1  Coo Star Sivola 33/1
Kapcorse 33/1 Spiritofthegames 33/1 Truckers Lodge  33/1
Yala Enki 33/1 Benatar 40/1 Cloth Cap 40/1Potterman 40/1
Lamanver Pippin 40/1 Blaklion 50/1 The Mighty Don 50/1
Flying Angel 66/1 The Hollow Ginge 66/1
 
   
Aka as the Hennessy Gold Cup 
The 5th best race of the season 
Now looks in a gradual decline  
   
Official Ratings of past winners

149 148 147 155 155 151 147 
160 146 152 174 150 161 145 151

Horses rated under 145
Have a 0-96 record since 2004
Classier types are winning now  
   
Last 25 Hennessy winners
Had the following chase runs

6 13 7 7 9 7 11 4 14 3 12 23 5
4 4 6 4 11 6 5 6 7 11 5 13 7

25 of the last 26 winners
Had under 15 Chase runs
 
The only winner
With under 4 Chase runs
Was Diamond Harry in 2011 

Horses with over 9 hurdle runs
Have a poor 1-61 record in this
The more hurdle runs you have
The less likely you are to win

November and December
Graded Handicap Chases
Any Distance
Since 2006
8 year olds
Absent more than 56 days
Have a miserable 0-111 record
  
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 5f or longer
Any time of year since 2007

Graded Handicap Chases
3 miles and further
Any time of year
Horses with over 8 chase runs
Absent more than 105 days
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 1-73 record in them
Only Denman has managed it
 
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class
3m 1f and more
Any time of year
Since 2008
Horses aged 10 or more
Absent more than 57 days
Have a 0-136 record
 
Horses coming from 3m 2f or more
Have a 2-94 record in this race
None were aged 9 or more 
 
Go back 22 years
Horses racing this year
Coming from a Chase
Beaten over 15 lengths last time
Have a 1-58 record in this race
A recent heavy defeat is not ideal
 
Horses with over 11 chase runs
Carrying 11st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-20 record in this race 
      
11 Year Olds
 
Last won this in 1957 and 1967

10 Year Olds
 
Horses age 10 or more
Have won just once since 1981

9 year olds

Have a 3-97 record since 1992
Won just 3 of the last 30 renewals
Won from ratings of 174 139 145
With  17 7 15 National Hunt runs
They had 12 7 8 Chase runs
Two ran that season having 7-8 runs
The other (Denman) a seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutants aged 9 + are 1-52
 
Horses aged 9 or more
Over 11 Chase runs
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Absent more than 61 days
Return a 0-149 record in them
 
Horses aged 9 or more
With 18 or more lifetime starts
Have a 1-77 record in the last 20 years

8 year olds
 
Have a 6-91 record since 1992
They had all had a recent race  
Seasonal debutant 8yo's are 0-25 

The 6 winners aged 8
Had these numbers beforehand
National Hunt runs 17 25 20 18 14 17 
Chase runs  7 9 14 16 11 13 
Official Ratings 147 155 146 149 162 148
 
7 year olds

Horses aged 7
Have a 12-142 record since 1992
5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7
They all had Grade 1 form before
They had 4 3 5 4 6 previous Chase starts
Won this race in 2001 2005 2007 2010 2012

Horses aged 7
Over 9 previous chase runs
Have a 1-49 record in this race
   
Horses aged 7
Running within 55 days
Under 15 career starts
Have a 0-25 record in this 

Horses aged 7
With a recent run in this race
Won in 1999 2000 2008 2004 2019
     
The last 8 winners aged 7 
Had these Racing Post Chase Ratings
153 158 167 160 158 169 160 155
They all managed ratings of 153 or more

6 year olds
 
Have a 6-60 record since 1992
They had 1 1 0 1 2 1 runs that year
Seasonal debutant 6yo's are 1-15
He (State Of Play) had 4 Chase starts
6yo's are best with a recent run

The 6 winners aged 6
Had these numbers beforehand
National Hunt runs 16 15 12 6 6 16
Chase runs 11 7 4 6 4 7  
Official Ratings 155 147 145 142 140 135

The highest weighted 6yo winner
State of Play (2006) with 11st 4lbs
Only legendary Mill House in 1963
Won Aged 6 with more than 11st 9lbs
 
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