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Highlighted Bet 
  
Clonmel 1.30 

CENTURION STEEL 2/1-9/4-5/2

Win Bet






Today's Message    



Standard message today
Return to a normal shape

No Future betting angles
Schedule ready for bets
Over the coming few days 



7 Previews 

Market Rasen 12.22
Clonmel 1.30
Wincanton 2.15
Leicester 2.37
Chelmsford 4.00
Chelmsford 4.30 
Chelmsford 5.30


There are a few selections today
Offering tempting each way doubles
But don't really want to go that way
 
M. Rasen 12.22 - VOLKOVKA 2/1

Clonmel 1.30 - CENTURION STEEL 2/1

Chelmsford 5.30 - BRUNELS'S BOY 11/4


There are 3 Handicap previews
Don't feel I've quite nailed them

Could be one of those days
Where we get a few second places

Going with a win bet 
No safety nets at all

Likely to be the weakest

Of the bets this weekend



Today's Best Bet

Clonmel 1.30 

CENTURION STEEL 2/1-9/4-5/2

Win Bet




Most people 
Would predict a 2nd place here
That may be where he finishes

But on his last 2 runs
Made him a negative both times
Failed a 0-164 statistic last time
I have upgraded both those runs





Wednesday's Review  

Starting the message very late
Seemed to backfire yesterday
Thought it was very unpleasant
The only silver lining from that
Was the best bet of the day won
Falberto was too strong for them
But a lovely start ending badly
Got nothing from the other three
Dud message with best bet winner
Not sure I'd have taken it before





PROFILES & PREVIEWS


 
Market Rasen 12.22

6/4 Shentri, 5/2 Volkovka, 7/1 Sure I'm Your Man
12/1 Fiscal Prudence, Shalott, 16/1 Park Lane Dancer
Yulong Magicreef, 25/1 Asharann, 33/1 Carriesmatic.

Juvenile hurdle

The interesting thing about these
How badly they all ran last time out
It feels a real race to the bottom 

SHENTRI went out like a light
Beaten 59 lengths only 18 days ago
If he wasn't trained by a big stable 
He would be a bigger price than he is

VOLKOVKA ran 17 days ago
He was beaten 26 lengths that day

If you look at Racing Post Ratings
VOLKOVKA achieved a rating of 95
SHENTRI only managed a rating of 70
Should be favourite on those numbers

Watching both on video
VOLKOVKA looks a big strong type
She made a very bad mistake later on
Without that she'd have been closer
Came away liking her much more
SHALOTT does not appeal at all
Only 20/1 in a maiden bumper 
Looks like a smaller type to me

SURE I'M YOUR MAN ran 4 days ago
Maybe significant he started favourite
But ran a shocker pulling up
Thye blamed a burst blood vessel there
But was in trouble a long way from home

All have flaws
None of the outsiders appeal
All low scorers with limited promise

VOLKOVKA visually the best of them
Would be my choice of a bad lot

Some might want to go each way double
I will leave that decision up to you 

Selection

VOLKOVKA 2/1

Win Bet






Clonmel 1.30

7/4 Stand Off, 4/1 Centurion Steel, 8/1 Deramore Park
9/1 Annie Kate, Walking The Walk, 11/1 Coole Arcade
11/1 Nelson's Point, 16/1 Orcadian Symphony
18/1 Awesome Shirocco, 18/1  Presenting Bonnie
20/1 Irregularheartbeat, 33/1 Lady L'lerom, Some Jok
66/1 Gold Label.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

One interesting statistic
Forgives one of these
And condemns another

November + December
2m Novice + Maiden hurdles
Horses from 2m 5f or more
Running with the last 20 days
Have a horrible 3-246 record       
Those beaten last time out
But who completed the race
Had a 0-164 record in them     

DERAMORE PARK fails this today 
Potentially more significant though

CENTURION STEEL failed it last time
Made him a negative on that statistic

He was a negative before that as well
When stepping up 7f at Thurles 
I would upgrade both his last 2 runs
 
STAND OFF looks his main danger
No statistically objection to his chance
But he has a 3f drop in distance 
Stoutly bred will this really suit him

CENTURION STEEL is preferred
More hurdling experience
More runs this season as well
Better connections as well 

There may be dangers
Nothing too obvious though
ANNIE KATE is a 5 year old mare
She fell in her only hurdle race
Could improve but she needs to
Several low scorers elsewhere

Prefer the Gordon Elliot horse

Selection

CENTURION STEEL 2/1-9/4-5/2

Win Bet






Wincanton 2.15

9/2 Darlac, 5/1 Carrick Roads, 13/2 Broadclyst
7/1 Forgot To Ask, Hes No Trouble, Hugo 'N Taz
8/1 Get On The Yager, 10/1 What A Moment
12/1 Realm Keeper, 14/1 Plantagenet
20/1 Putdecashonthedash.

Silver Buck Handicap Chase

Not easy to nail this one
But this race has a long history

You want to avoid horses aged 10 +
Those with over 14 chase runs too
The following fail this angle

WHAT A MOMENT
GET ON THE YAGER
PLANTAGENET
HUGO 'N' TAZ

Not keen on the horses
With very recent heavy defeats
REALM KEEPER is a good example
Hammered at 40/1 only 19 days ago
PUTDECASHOFTHEDASH is wrong

Every past winner of this race
Came from 2m 5f or more last time
HES NO TROUBLE comes from 2m 3f
 
Shortlist

DARLAC
CARRICK ROADS
BROADCLYST
FORGOT TO ASK

DARLAC has a chance
But topweight in a big field
His big field form is not pleasant
CARRICK ROADS is his stablemate
Fair chance but he is up in class

BROADCLYST appealed the most
Jumped very slickly at Exeter last time

Selection

BROADCLYST 14/1-9/2

Each Way





Leicester 2.37

6/4 Fantastic Lady, 11/4 Hunny Moon, 4/1 Found On
7/1 Lydia Violet, 8/1 Uptown Lady, 33/1 Brushed Up
33/1 Midnight Mary, 40/1 Boro Babe, 40/1Rainmaker
100/1 Committee Of One.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

Should involve 3-4 runners

HUNNY MOON smells fancied
But she only has bumper form
LYDIA VIOLET the same problem
Would not be a shock if either won
But decided not to risk either
 
FANTASTIC LADY is unraced
Nicky Henderson unsteady in market

If you look at all similar races
Run during November and December
Unraced 5 year olds
Starting 6/1 or shorter
Have a W W W W record

Obviously that tells us nothing
About how good or not she is
But it does tell us that unraced horses
Should not be seen as a negative

FOUND OUT has 2 runs
Hurdle debut at Cheltenham
No shame in that performance 
She was 3rd over hurdles last time
Quite a warm race for that track

Selection

 
Option 1

FOUND OUT 9/2

Each Way

Option 2
 
£6 Win Bet FOUND OUT 9/2
£4 Win Bet FANTASTIC LADY 6/4 +


Option 1 is safer
Would be my choice in a main bet
But not a very easy bet to get on
Because of that it is option 2







Chelmsford 4.00

4/1 Fenix, 11/2 Tie A Yellowribbon, 6/1 Kentucky Kingdom
6/1 Lothario, Stormingin, 7/1 Lady Dauphin, Settle Petal
10/1 Smart Connection, 12/1 Lunar Deity, 20/1 Bird To Love
33/1 Muraaqeb, Nell 'N' Flo, 40/1 Monsieur Royale.

10f Handicap

226 similar races 

The Unacceptable

BIRD TO LOVE a mare down 4f
LADY DAUPHIN a filly with 66 days off
With clear stamina doubts over 10f
LUNAR DEITY 11 years old up in trip
NELL 'N'FLO looks too inexperienced 
MONSIEUR ROYALE absent too long
MURAAQEB has low numbers

FENIX is a 3yo filly
She is coming up in trip with 4 runs 
All horses aged 3 doing this
Have a 2-69 record in similar races
Those from handicaps like her 0-16 
FENIX has a unimpressive profile
Much depends on her new trainer
What improvement he can extract
The market suggests possibly a lot

SMART CONNECTION another 3yo
Coming up 2f in distance here
With 7 weeks off and low numbers
And a downgrade in stable he is unsafe

TIE A YELLOWRIBBON comes from 7f
Not ideal as a 4yo filly doing that
None have won with over 16 runs
She has now had 20 career starts
Feel there are safer profiles here

Shortlist

STORMINGIN
KENTUCKY KINGDOM
LOTHARIO
SETTLE PETAL

STORMINGIN has a chance
But a 7yo without a recent run
A jockey with just 6 lifetime rides
Could be unnecessary risks here

The others all statistically safe
With good recent runs 

KENTUCKY KINGDOM is up in trip
Rated just 55 marginally prefer others
SETTLE PETAL is an older mare
Starting 33/1 or more on last 5 runs 

LOTHARIO ran well last time
Still unexposed over this distance
Like him best but my main worry
Missing the break from stall 1
Could require luck in running 
Thats why i am split staking this

Selection

£5 Win Bet LOTHARIO 8/1

£5 Place Bet FENIX 10/11-4/5





Chelmsford 4.30

5/2 Prosili, 7/2 Bad Attitude
9/2 Cafe Milano 6/1 Cool To Be A Cat, 7/1 Blairlogie
14/1 Theydon Louboutin, 20/1 Hannalite, Mirakuhl
20/1 Sea Willow, 20/1  Thaki, 25/1 Red Beacon
33/1 Rosie McCann, The Simple Truth.

10f Handicap

Some questionable profiles

THEYDON LOUBOUTIN is out
Can not have her up from 6f
HANNALITE a filly with 78 days off
MIRAKUHL is inexperienced
THAKI has the same profile

PROSILI is a potential winner
A clean and obvious chance
But Marco Botti leaves me cold
She is also drawn in stall 13

Chelmsford 10f races this year
Show horses drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-58 record in all 2020 races
Thats only 1 year of data to be fair
But suggests stall 13 is not helpful

BLAIRLOGIE has positives
But rated 48 after 12 runs
Don't see much class in his profile

COOL TO BE CAT

He is only rated 46
So I am arguing against myself here
Not ever sure he will stay this far
But was tracking him in the summer
After a lot of excuses for defeats
So want him on my side here

BAD ATTITUDE is down 3f
Not keen myself on that profile
But many angles say he is a player
I have found 3yo winners doing it

CAFE MILANO is a 3yo
Fit and running well over 10f
Drawn a bit higher than ideal
But has more positives than most
 
 
Selection 

£4.50 Each Way  CAFE MILANO 11/2

£1.00 Win Bet COOL TO BE CAT 12/1






Chelmsford 5.30

7/4 Perfect Sunset, 11/4 Brunel's Boy
4/1 Save The Spirit, 8/1 Strawbs, 10/1 Mjolnir
10/1 Tomorrowland, 25/1 Arlo's Sunshine
25/1 Butcherofstockholm, Sweet Candy Dale
40/1 High Class Affair, 50/1 Feminine Felicity.

6f Novice

Not a lot to go on

PERFECT SUNSET has 4 runs
BRUNELS'S BOY has 10 runs

Might be asking a lot
For the unraced horses to win

SAVE THE SPIRIT is unraced
He has stall 10 to cope with as well

Since the track opened
6f races
Under 14 runners
Unraced horses
Drawn 8 or higher are 0-50
That suggests we avoid him 

STRAWBS is an unraced 4yo filly
Disappointing if she manages to win

TOMMORLAND has 1 run
Díd not do enough at 33/1 there
HIGH CLASS AFFAIR has poor figures
 
Staying with the experience 

PERFECT SUNSET

May have more scope
Could be the better prospect

But she has an inferior draw
She is a filly with 1 run in 133 days

In the same period of time
BRUNELS'S BOY has raced 6 times
I find that a bit more persuasive

Selection

BRUNELS'S BOY 11/4

Win Bet

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