6 Previews
1 Highlighted Bet



Highlighted Bet

Plumpton 2.10

THATS MY RABBIT 3/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4


This was going onto an account
Because this bet is each way 3/1
It goes onto the highlighted one
Reserved for similar staked bets

Could have gone win and saver
And put this on the main account
But with 4 places available here
It may be a mistake to ignore that




Today's Message


Win lose or draw today
Happy with the decision
To go with a Sunday bet

6 Previews

Southwell 12.30
Southwell 1.00
Southwell 2.00
Plumpton 2.10
Plumpton 2.40
Naas 3.20


Southwell 2.00

ANOTHER APPROACH 11/1-12/1

£7.50 Win
£2.50 Place

Can see the danger here
He may find a way to lose
Possibly going off too fast
But I've had an interest bet

The opposition is so limited
He looks the fittest option
He could lead and hold on
But expect he may just fade
At 11/1-12/1 worth the risk

The message builds slowly

It finishes with 3 handicaps

All of which offer us chances

Plumpton 2.10
Plumpton 2.40
Naas 3.20

The chosen race

Plumpton 2.10

Option 1
£8.50 Win Bet THATS MY RABBIT 3/1
£1.50 Win Bet THE PREMIER CELTIC 6/1 +

Option 2
THATS MY RABBIT 3/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4


THATS MY RABBIT can win

He may be older than the others
But does not have much mileage
He has been running himself fit

The dilemma

Option 1
Would be on the main account

Option 2
Would be on the highlighted account

3/1 each way
Will leave many frustrated
But there are 4 places available
If we go with Option 1 instead
We would lose that big advantage

I think the horse has come good
No coincidence Richard Johnson rides

I do Appreciate

This is not the most flamboyant bet
But I'm looking to finish on a winner
Or more importantly not a loser

I have had a small saver as well
That saver is on Karalika at 20/1
But wont count that if she wins

Done every day since Boxing day
This is 11 messages in a row
So going to break very soon
Probably wont be one tomorrow
But if there is will let you know

Want the Champion Hurdle
And the Gold Cup sorted this week

Gold Cup entries are out on the 8th
Going to get one of these done tonight
Want to preview both this week




Saturday's Summary

I feared for Saturday's message
Didn't fancy anything in particular
Especially from the bigger fields
Expect results confirmed this too
Wild West Wind a speculative nap
Ran very well for quite a long way
But had nothing too offer later on
Smart Wild looked good for a while
That just looked a falsely run race
The front runners never got home
As a Saturday a disappointing effort
The accounts basically written off
But whatever happens this Sunday
Feel it was right not to have a bet





PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Southwell 12.30

5/4 Zapper Cass, 9/2 George Thomas
5/1 Tabaahy, 13/2 Fair Alibi, 9/1 Skeetah
9/1 Warrior's Valley, 16/1 Followthesteps

5f Handicap

One or two concerns here

GEORGE THOMAS has 1 run in 81 days
FAIR ALIBI has 1 run in 107 days
TABAAHY has raced once in 208 days
Hardly ideal for a 5f race here
The following may be significant

Runs in the last 6 weeks

4 Zapper Cass
3 Warrior's Valley
1 George Thomas
1Tabaahy
1 Fair Alibi
1 Skeetah
1 Followthesteps

We have two horses
Who look to have fitness advantages
ZAPPER CASS
WARRIORS VALLEY
They met last time out
ZAPPER CASS won easily

Selection

£9 Win Bet ZAPPER CASS 11/10

£1 Win Bet WARRIORS VALLEY 14/1





Southwell 1.00

10/11 Makthecat, 3/1 Bin Makfi
6/1 Tranchee, 8/1 Happy Face, 33/1 Foxy Eloise
50/1 Sixties Coed.

8f Novice race

MAKETHECAT is 11/8 favourite

Surprised me coming from a bumper

Looked at every Novice race run
Any distance
Any age range
Any time of year

There was a 2-59 record
Both winners were in 2019

Those with just 1 run were 0-21

Those running over 1m 3f or less
Coming from a bumper are 0-44

MAKETHECAT failing both angles
Coming from a Bumper to a mile
MAKETHECAT just feels unsafe

The problem here
These races are very rare
Too many known unknowns

The most likely winner
Is now a non runner

We will have to guess from here
HAPPY FACE ran 7 days ago
But didn't post a good figures
BIN MAKFI has 521 days off

Difficult call

Selection

TRANCHEE 11/4

Each Way 1/4 Odds 1-2




Southwell 2.00

11/4 Saltie Girl, 7/2 Face Like Thunder, Sir Magnum
7/1 Daniel Dravot, 14/1 Another Approach, Limerick Lord
16/1 Baile Ghilibert, Robbian, 20/1 Drumshanbo Destiny
20/1 Gunner Moyne, Mountain Of Stars.

Classified Stakes race

Dismal quality here
Horses rated 39 to 50

There are so many here
Who you argue are unfit

DRUMSHANBO DESTINY is one
He has raced just once in 136 days
He has also downgraded stables
GUNNE MOYNE 1 run in 11 months
SALTIE GIRL a filly absent 149 days

BAILE GHILIBERT's numbers are low
LIMERICK LORD an out of form 8-y-o
MOUNTAIN OF STARS looks very slow
ROBBIAN is a 9yo going up 2 furlongs
Having rested for several weeks

DANIEL DRAVOT didn't offer much
Don't see why a drop in trip is helpful
He looks quite a small horse as well

Shortlist

SIR MAGNUM
FACE LIKE THUNDER

Of this pair
SIR MANGUM looks a bit better
But has no Southwell experience
FACE LIKE THUNDER has that

ANOTHER APPROACH interests me

No Southwell form
Shame - but at a huge price
Happy to take that on the chin

I think he will make the running
He did that last time out at Wolves
May have gone off too fast there

He has the shortest absence
Will have needed the run before that

Selection

ANOTHER APPROACH 10/1-12/1

£7 Win

£3 Place





Plumpton 2.10

4/1 Thats My Rabbit, 6/1 The Premier Celtic
7/1 Zoltan Varga, 7/1 Kalarika, 8/1 Vicenzo Mio
12/1 High Up In The Air, 12/1 Royal Concorde
14/1 Cassivellaunus, Ede'iffs Elton, Sauvignon
16/1 Affaire D'Honneur, 16/1 Nessfield Blue,
25/1 Kalabee, Schap, 33/1 Bostin.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Female horses
Have a strong record in this
Winning 5 of the 8 past renewals

Realistically the only mare
You could fancy to win is Karalika
KARALIKA trained Colin Tizzard
Topweight and with 394 days off
Obviously that is a major worry
But a top class stable behind her
She could easily be the class horse
And only yesterday Itsonlyrocknroll
Won at Wincanton first time off topweight
I would consider her on the staking
Her trainer won this last year in 2019
He did that with a seasonal debutant
The 2018 winner of this race
Was a female winning first time out
But she is drifting badly out to 25/1

There are a few
With obvious challenges

EDE'IFFFS ELTON with 3 career runs
Has a lot to overcome in this
AFFAIRE D'HONNEUR from a 2m race
Didn't have enough to tempt me here
ROYAL CONCORDE has low figures

HIGH IN THE AIR drops from 3m 1f
He has only had 5 lifetime starts
Similar races in January show
Horses from 3m + with under 7 runs
Have a 0-31 record in these races
He would be too unsafe for me

ZOLRAN VARGA is not shortlisted
May win but see weakness in him
With just the 1 run since June 2019

Shortlist

KARALIKA
THE PREMIER CELTIC
THATS MY RABBIT

THE PREMIER CELTIC is solid
Ran well last time may be enough

THATS MY RABBIT is an 11yo

My reading of him
Following 2 long breaks
He has not much mileage on the clock
It has taken time to get himself fit again
That happened last time with a win

Selection

Option 1

£8.50 Win Bet THATS MY RABBIT 3/1

£1.50 Win Bet THE PREMIER CELTIC 6/1 +

Option 2

THATS MY RABBIT 3/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3





Plumpton 2.40

4/1 Hard To Forget, 5/1 Belle Empress, 6/1 Christmas In April
7/1 The Caller, 8/1 Garrane, Vinnie Lewis, 10/1 Billy Bronco
10/1 Uallrightharry, 14/1 Weststreet, 16/1 Rathlin Rose
16/1 Sackett.

Sussex National (3m 4f)

14 past renewals

Number of Chase runs

25 Rathlin Rose
12 Weststreet
11 Billy Bronco
8 Garrane
7 Sackett
7 Vinnie Lewis
6 Belle Empress
5 The Caller
5 Christmas In April
4 Uallrightharry
3 Hard To Forget

Unusually for a race like this
Most horses are very lightly raced
8 of the 11 runners
Have no more than 8 chase runs
And I feel one of these should win

RATHLIN ROSE is a 12yo
Pulled up recently has to be opposed

SACKETT looks underraced
Every past winner ran within 40 days
He has 60 days absence to overcome
He has raced just once since June 2019
Past winners runs since August
3 3 3 2 3 4 5 2 2 4

THE CALLER is a 9yo
Pulled up on 5th chase run last time
The 2011 winner had a similar profile
But he did not pull up last time out
No past winner did and it's a worry
Especially as he is not a big horse

WESTSTREET pulled up last time
Had excuses and 4 miles wasn't ideal
But it is not a good preparation

BILLY BRONCO is a 9yo
Still not too exposed with 11 chases
Chance but he is flat bred
Sire has no winners beyond 3m 2f

UALLRIGHTHARRY has 4 chase runs'
Unseated last time at the last fence
Dangerous to rule out with 4 chases
But he is bottomweight rated 110
His last 2 runs were in 0-116 + 0-105
This is a tougher 0-135 class contest
We have had lightweights with this
But look at the last 9 renewals
Horses with under 10st 9lbs weight
Have a 0-20 record in these seasons
Just worried he lacks enough class

VINNIE LEWIS has topweight
Horses with 11st 7lbs or more
Have a 1-32 record in this race
Last years winner the only horse
Who has won this with his weight
That said if we ignore Rathlin Rose
Impossible to like as a 12 year old
VINNIE LEWIS is a 133 rated horse
Who only faces a 0-125 class field
That very nearly got him selected
But horses aged 9 or more
Carrying 11st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-30 record in this race
And he also fails this statistic

January
Handicap Chases 3m 4f +
Any Class of race
Horses aged 9 or more
11st 5lbs or more
Under 16 Chase runs
Have a 0-54 record in them
VINNIE LEWIS fails this


Shortlist

HARD TO FORGET
BELLE EMPRESS
CHRISTMAS IN APRIL
GARANE


Possibles

GARANE is unexposed
Running well and has proven stamina
Good solid Class 3-4 type of horse
No sign of any progression though
He has yet to win any chase race

BELLE EMPRESS is a mare
Not worried no mares won this
Career best run last time out
But she drops down from 3m 6f
None as inexperienced did that

Marginally prefer two horses

HARD TO FORGET
CHRISTMAS IN APRIL

HARD TO FORGET is a 7yo
He only has 3 previous chase runs
But look at the recent 7yo winners

2019 winner a 7yo with 3 chase runs
2018 winner a 7yo with 3 chase runs
2010 winner a 7yo with 3 chase runs

They all had 3 chase runs
Hard not to see him as a positive
On a hat trick and improving
He will have to prove he stays
He is untested over this far

CHRISTMAS IN APRIL has 5 chase runs
His Racing Post Chase Ratings
Show 3 career bests in a row now
His last 3 fugures 125 126 and 131
Suggest he is well treated off 123
Like many stamina must be proven
His sires runners are 0-1 over 3m 3f +

Go back to 2009

Horses aged 7-8-9
Winning last time out
Running within 6 weeks
Under 6 Chase starts
10st 13lbs or more

5 horses had this profile

They finished W W W PU W

Horses with this profile

HARD TO FORGET
CHRISTMAS IN APRIL

Selection

£8 Win Bet CHRISTMAS IN APRIL 4/1

£2 Win Bet HARD TO FORGET 4/1 - 9/2




Naas 3.20

3/1 Fox Le Bel, 5/1 Something Sweet, 6/1 Abraham
7/1 Lusis Naturea, 8/1 Mc Alpine, 10/1 Rapid Response
12/1 Our Big Red, 14/1 Olive D'haguenet, Our Boy Boru
14/1 Volatile Lady, 16/1 British Art, Major Fawcett,
16/1 Tara Dylan, 20/1 Ice Cool, 33/1 Lady Maureen.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

FOX LE BEL was unlucky last time
May or may not have won though

He is the youngest horse here
He only has 4 lifetime starts
He last ran in a 2m handicap

January
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f and more
Any class of race

Horses aged 5
Coming from 2m handiap hurdles
Under 15 lifetime starts
Have a poor 1-50 record
That winner over much further

FOX LE BEL's profile is not strong
VOLATILE LADY has the same profile

Some of these look too risky
ICE COOL is 11 absent 665 days off
OUR BOY BORU has 704 days off
Combined with Topweight 11st 12lbs
LADY MAUREEN is running poorly

TARA DYLAN ran 9 days ago
Hammered 31 lengths at 50/1
Difficult to see him bouncing back
OLIVE D'HAGUENET similar problems
He was beaten 41 lengths 7 days ago
MAJOR FAWCETT ran 5 days ago
Another heavy defeat too recently
OUR BIG RED is out of form

ABRAHAM has 5 months off
Don't doubt he can win off his rating
But very exposed with 35 runs
Possibly too exposed for an absence

BRITISH ART is 8 years old
Not keen on a horse with 45 runs
Having raced just once in 198 days

MC APLINE Has 6 runs 5 over hurdles
Horses Aged 6
From Novice/Maiden Hurdles
Under 8 lifetime starts
Have 1-29 record in similar races
That winner was De Rasher Counter
The stable are regressive these days

RAPID RESPONSE has 4 runs
She has raced once this season
Unseating early just 8 days ago
Having been badly handicapped
Highly unorthodox profile really
None like her but few have tried
This race is similar to 8 days ago
She was a 16/1 chance to take that
Half the price after unseating
Not ruled out little experience

LUSIS NATUREA is a 9 year old
Very exposed with 40 career runs
Especially facing a 71 day absence

Similar races show
Horses with over 35 career runs
Absent more than 61 days are 0-35

SOMETHING SWEET an 8yo mare
Exposed but solid consistent form
Genuine enough with no surprises
Her profile may be underwhelming
But ticks boxes with few weak areas
And last time out Racing Post Ratings
SOMETHING SWEET is 8lbs clear
Of all the horses running this season

Selection

SOMETHING SWEET 5/1

Each Way



FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Betfred

Cheltenham Festival
Offering Non runner No Bet
Only on Championship races
But it is a positive development
Hopefully others will follow soon



Supreme Novice Hurdle

Betfair Prices

4/1 Abacadabras 9/1 Fiddlerontheroof 9/1 Envoi Allen
14/1 Master Debonair 18/1 Edwardstone 20/1 Chantry House
22/1 Unexcepted 25/1 Mister Coffey 25/1 Sporting John
33/1 Andy Dufresne

Tolworth Hurdle

FIDDLERONTHEROOF

Won the Tolworth on Saturday
Roughly around 10/1 to win this

Felt he was impressive enough
I won't have a statistical objection
Looks a legitimate danger to me
Against early fancy Abacadabras

The general view after the race
He runs in the Supreme if soft
Runs in the Ballymore if not soft
Not sure if it will work out like that

If he runs in the Ballymore Hurdle
And Envios Allen does this as well
Assuming he wins today at Naas
The Supreme Market collapses
ABACADABRAS has to shorten up

Waiting to see the numbers
Saturdays Racing Post ratings
Abacadabras is still my preference





Ante Post Thoughts

Wednesday March 11th

Queen Mother

Champion Chase

Altior 3/1 Defi Du Seuil 4/1 Chacun Pour Soi 5/1
Cilaos Emery 8/1 A Plus Tard 10/1 Min 12/1
Douvan 14/1 Waiting Patiently 14/1 Cyrname 16/1
Le Richebourg 16/1Sceau Royal 16/1 Darasso 16/1
Un De Sceaux 16/1 Kalashnikov 20/1 Bun Doran 25/1
Duc Des Genievres 25/1 Fox Norton 25/1
Riders Onthe Storm 25/1 Dynamite Dollars 33/1
Lady Buttons 33/1 Politologue 33/1 Hardline 40/1
Glen Forsa 50/1 Ornua 50/1

Previewed this race on Friday

Been asking myself this question

If I offered you

DEFI DI SEUILL at 6/4

But with a guarantee
That you get your money back
If any of these 3 horses win

Alltior
Chacun Pour Soi
Cilaos Emery

Would you take that 6/4
With the above guarantee

This was the thought process
For the planned Beautiful Bet 5


£5 Win Bet DEFI DI SEUILL 4/1

£2 Win Bet Alltior 7/2

£2 Win Bet Chacun Pour Soi 5/1

£1 Win Bet Cilaos Emery 9/1


That was the big idea

Outrageous as it might be
To bet 4 horses ante post
But as I suggested Friday
Few others can be fancied

You may or may not agree
One of the main 4 should win
They will scare a lot of others
Who may Reroute to other races

I liked that 6/4 Defi Du Seuil
With money back on 3 dangers

The problem is
There are trials to come

Defi Du Seuil and Altior may clash
Chacun Pour Soi runs in February
Should not be having serious bets
Ante Post on horses before trials

For that reason
I decided not to commit to the bet
Beautiful Bet 5 is now put on hold



January and February
Magnificent Ante Post months
Always exciting planning bets

This bet interests me too


Staked to £10

Australian Open Tennis - N Djokovic 13/8
Queen Mother Champion - Defi Du Seuil 4/1
£2.50 Each Way Double

Australian Open Tennis - N Djokovic 13/8
Queen Mother Champion - Chacun Pour Soi 5/1

£2.50 Each Way Double


Novak Djokovic
With his brilliant Australian record
And offereing half the odds a place
He looks a very good opening leg

What this bet basically means

If Djokovic reaches the final

You only need 1 place
From Defi Du Seuil or Chacun Pour Soi
To return the majority of your stakes

Both could easily place
And one could easily win

Another Variation
Of the Beautiful Bet 5 idea

Ideally placed with Betfred

As they are non runner no Bet



4 x Win Doubles

Staking £100

£76.61 Double -Djokovic 13/8 Defi Du Seuil 7/2

£11.00 Double - Djokovic 13/8 Altior 5/2

£7.62 Double - Djokovic 13/8 Chacun Pour Soi 4/1

£4.77 Win Double - Djokovic 13/8 Cilaos Emery 7/1


Total Stakes £100

If Djokovic wins in Australia

ALTIOR returns you £101.06

CHACUN POUR SOIR returns you £100.01

CILAOS EMERY returns you £100.17

You break level on all 3 horses

But the Jackpot Bet

DEFI DU SEUIL winning

Returns £904.95

A Profit of £804.95

I do like the look of that bet
If like me you fancy Djokovic



Beautiful Bet 3

Man City 2-1 Everton
Liverpool 2-0 Shef Utd

Football went well this week
Rolling Stakes are now £53.48

This bet is under pressure
The Whip has been out a while
Thankfully a weeks break now
As this weekend is the FA Cup

Next weekend
Both teams are away
Liverpool have to go to Spurs
So potential to come unstuck
But if we can get through that
Won't be too far off a payout
Who am I trying to kid here

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