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Today's Message


Only 3 previews today

Wincanton 3.00
Southwell 3.10
Thurles 3.15


Shorter than I was hoping for
I binned a preview I got wrong
Haven't found enough for more
Put it down as a below standard
Results could always rescue it

The weather still causing havoc
Friday-Saturday has 10 meetings
5 National Hunt and 5 All weather
It looks like we have to mix it up

Today's Best Bet

Going for an each way double

The Saver in the 3.00 preview
The Selection in the 3.15 race
May be best welded together


Wincanton 3.00 - DR OAKLEY 6/4-13/8

Thurles 3.15 - STRANGE NOTIONS 6/4-13/8

Each Way Double


Not very imaginative
But it is not a good message
But if the above horses win
The returns will be decent






Wednesdays Review

Found a winning highlighted bet
CRIMSON KING did the business
Held up then won it going away
His fitness kicked in as expected
Returns faced a rule 4 deduction
Which is just out of our control
There were 2 options for the bet
The other race won by the saver
We had the 1st and 2nd finishers
Obviously chose the right option
Ilaya was beat at 1.01 in running
Just felt he went off too quickly
But the important bets did best
So have to see it as a good day



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Wincanton 3.00

9/4 Dr Oakley, 11/2 Harry Haze, 7/1 No No Tonic
8/1 Candyman Can, 14/1 Goodgirlteresa
14/1 Kalarika 14/1 Streets Of Fire, 16/1 Cassivellaunus
16/1 True Thoughts, 20/1 First Destination, Kapitaliste,
20/1 Kendelu, 20/1 Our Nest Egg, 25/1 En Coeur,
25/1 Fenrir Binding, I'm In Charge, 50/1 Espressino
50/1 Spring Steel.

Handicap Hurdle

Not many can win this

DR OAKLEY is a positive
Won 8 days ago at this track
Last time Racing Post Ratings
Show he is 8lbs clear of these
He brings momentum into the race

There are 2 legitimate threats
HARRY HAZE
NO NO TONIC

Similar types
No flat form around 7-8-9 hurdles
Most of career unfancied doing little
But both ran their best races last time
Both showing they can win similar races

DR OAKLEY is most likely winner
But 6/4 in a big field not very generous

I like this split stake bet

£5 Win Dr Oakley 6/4
£5 Place Harry Haze

Not everyone will like that
Not very practical as a selection
Turning that option down
As I am an each way double
DR OAKLEY is ideal for that bet

One of these should win
Prices dictate and force the staking
So going to play the race this way

Selection

£6 Win Bet HARRY HAZE 5/1

£4 Win Bet DR OAKLEY 6/4





Southwell 3.10

5/1 Champagne Mondays, 5/1 Lacan, 6/1 Poppy May
6/1 Ghost Buy, 7/1 Parker's Boy, 7/1 Tilsworth Rose
12/1 Hellofagame, 12/1 Rebecke, 14/1 Tizwotitiz
20/1 Badger Berry, Mrs Munnelly, 25/1 Jailbreak.

6f Classified Stakes race

Very low grade

Best to stick with principles

I'd want competitive numbers
Enough experience to cope
A fit and in form horse as well

I'd against the 3 year olds
MRS MUNNELY is inexperienced
PARKER'S BOY is a low scorer
TIZWOTITIZ has 119 days absence

BADGER BERRY just 1 run in 140 days
LACAN drops down from 8f to 6f
Not safe as a 9 year old doing that
He is 3 years older than the others
JAILBREAK also drops from 8f to 6f

REBECKE is a 4yo filly with low figures
She has just been sold for just £800
HELLOFAGAME may lack the class
TILSWORTH ROSE flopped last time
She needs to put that behind her
Not well drawn last time one excuse
But doesn't feel a good enough reason

CHAMPAGNE MONDAYS is a 4yo
Not overkeen he is up in distance
Like many his numbers are limited

POPPY MAY was 6th last time out
GHOST BUY was 11th in the same race

Will be close between these horses
I would see both horses as positives
GHOST BUY was isolated in that race
Felt he had a lot against him that day

Selection

GHOST BUY 5/1

Each Way





Thurles 3.15

11/8 Strange Notions, 7/2 Onlyhuman, 11/2 Kismet Hardy
8/1 Mademoiselle Penny, 14/1 Charlie Siringo, Cornhill Lass
14/1 Ran Rite, 16/1 Duca Di Milano, 20/1 Optum, Pottlerath
25/1 Satin Sun, 33/1 Cashins Hill, 33/1 Sirjack Thomas,
33/1 Witness Cant State, 50/1 Sargent Lightfoot,
66/1 Miss Sophiea, Sao Paulo, 100/1 Golden Birch.

2m Maiden Hurdle

Lots of dead wood in this
Some of the hard to like contenders
Need significant improvement to win
OPTUM being an example of those

KISMET HARDY is a dark horse
Willie Mullins last seen 662 days ago
But as he has prior hurdle form
And has a 11 race flat career as well
He does not have an orthodox profile
Wouldn't and couldn't rule him out
But his profile does not appeal much

ONLYHUMAN is interesting
Given he was rated 105 on the flat
He could outclass these on ability
But he has had 19 career starts now
Very exposed for a first time hurdler
His sire also bothers me as well

Invincible Spirit hurdlers
Running on soft or heavy
Unraced hurdlers are 0-25
Under 3 hurdle runs are 1-59

Soft to heavy ground
He has 138 days since he last ran
He will do well to win on his debut

STRANGE NOTIONS my selection
She sets the standard on figures
He has 7 hurdle runs behind her
She is a mare taking on males
But offers 0-137 handicap form
Against horses with some flaws

Selection

STRANGE NOTIONS 13/8

Win Bet





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


1) Cheltenham Entries

2) Pertemps Handicap Stats

3) Generic Statistic Drill


Cheltenham

Tuesday's Entries

Supreme - 22
Arkle Chase - 15
Ultima Handicap - 50
Champion Hurdle - 19
Mares Hurdle - 15
Novice Handicap Chase 49
National Hunt Chase 20

These field sizes
Will be reduced further
With Sundays declarations

Looks like it will be soft
Quite possibly soft to heavy

You have to win Tuesday
If not you are bang in trouble
My strategy should than happen
Targeting the Handicap Hurdles





Ante Post Statistics

Thursday March 20th

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle

Past winners
Had the follow lifetime runs
9 9 9 9 8 10 6 25 39 30

The last 7 winners
All had 10 or fewer runs
All 114 with more in that time lost
Several have won before 2013

Horses with 11 or more lifetime runs
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-75 record since 1997

Past winners
Had the following hurdle runs
9 7 6 7 7 6 6 10 29 22

Horses with 11 or more hurdle runs
Have a very modest 3-164 record
Running within 4 weeks are 0-63

Those with 11 or more hurdle runs
Aged 5 are 0-7
Aged 6 are 0-20
Aged 7 are 0-32
Aged 8 are 0-43

Horses with 11 or more hurdle runs
With 10st 4lbs or more are 0-136

Horses with 11 or more hurdle runs
Coming from 2m 6f or more
Have a horrible 0-140 record
Suggesting as they are exposed
They only find enough improvement
When stepping up 3f or more in trip

Horses with 11 or more hurdle runs
Finishing 1st 2nd 3rd last time are 0-59
Coming from listed or graded races 0-39


Past winners
Had the following absences
76 22 19 26 12 32 61 26 61 48 20 26 40

Horses absent over 61 days
With over 7 lifetime starts
Have a 0-75 record in this race

Past winners
Had the following runs since August
2 5 6 6 2 4 3 5 6 4

Horses from a chase are 0-24 since 2007
But did win the race before in 2002 + 2006

No winners came from 3m 2f or more (0-22)
No winners came from 2m 1f or shorter (0-16)

Horses from Listed-Graded races
Last win this race back in 2007
All 59 trying since then failed
Horses aged 5-6-7
From Listed or Graded races are 0-46
Horses from Class 2 races are best

Horses beaten 22 + lengths last time
Running within 7 weeks are 0-82

Horses aged 5
Should be overlooked (1-34)

Horses aged 11 or more are 0-24
If you go back to the 1982 renewal
Only 1 winner was aged 10 or more

Horses aged 9 or more
Have won just 4 races since 1982
Those who tried in the last 20 yrs
Carrying 10st 4lbs or more are 1-76
Those running within 3 weeks 0-35

Winners aged 6
Tend to be lightly raced
The last 5 had 9 9 8 6 9 runs
The more runs a 6yo has
The more I would be concerned





Generic Statistics Drill


Cheltenham

Tuesday 10th March

Ultima Handicap Chase

Vinndication 6/1 Kildisart 8/1 The Conditional 8/1
Discorama 9/1 Mister Malarky 10/1 Who Dares Wins 10/1
Fitzhenry 14/1 La Bague Au Roi 14/1 Le Breuil 14/1
Vintage Clouds 14/1 Cepage 16/1 Dallas des Pictons 16/1
Elwood 16/1 No Comment 16/1 Shattered Love 16/1
Ardlethen 20/1 Brave Eagle 20/1 Cloth Cap 20/1
Cloudy Glen 20/1 Cobra de Mai 20/1 Death Duty 20/1
Koshari 20/1 Lord Schnitzel 20/1 Rock The Kasbah 20/1
Singlefarmpayment 20/1 Activial 25/1 Atlanta Ablaze 25/1
Big River 25/1 Burbank 25/1 Cogry 25/1 Just A Sting 25/1
Fingerontheswitch 25/1 General Principle 25/1
Milan Native 25/1 Mulcahys Hill 25/1 Poker Play 25/1
Quarenta 25/1 Snow Falcon 25/1 Tout Est Permis 25/1
Townshend 25/1 Cabaret Queen 33/1 Like The Sound 33/1
Pleasant Company 33/1 Soupy Soups 33/1 Touch Kick 33/1
The Young Master 33/1 Ice Cool Champs 40/1 Vivas 50/1
Cesar Et Rosalie 50/1 Forth Bridge 50/1


50 horses left in this race
They are priced up above
Half of the 50 will not run

The Following horses
Will fail generic Statistics

Generic Negatives

Vinndication 6/1 Vintage Clouds 14/1 Fitzhenry 14/1
Shattered Love 16/1 Elwood 16/1 Singlefarmpayment 20/1
Cepage 16/1 Cobra de Mai 20/1 Rock The Kasbah 20/1
Cogry 25/1 Atlanta Ablaze 25/1 Fingerontheswitch 25/1
Activial 25/1 Snow Falcon 25/1 General Principle 25/1
Townshend 25/1 The Young Master 33/1 Big River 25/1
Tout Est Permis 25/1 Soupy Soups 33/1 Pleasant Company 33/1
Touch Kick 33/1 Forth Bridge 50/1

If Correct

Then the winner of this race

Will be on this shortlist


Kildisart 8/1 The Conditional 8/1 Discorama 9/1
Mister Malarky 10/1 Who Dares Wins 10/1
La Bague Au Roi 14/1 Le Breuil 14/1 Dallas des Pictons 16/1
No Comment 16/1 Ardlethen 20/1 Brave Eagle 20/1
Cloth Cap 20/1 Cloudy Glen 20/1 Death Duty 20/1
Koshari 20/1 Lord Schnitzel 20/1 Burbank 25/1
Just A Sting 25/1 Milan Native 25/1 Mulcahys Hill 25/1
Poker Play 25/1 Quarenta 25/1 Cabaret Queen 33/1
Like The Sound 33/1 Ice Cool Champs 40/1 Vivas 50/1
Cesar Et Rosalie 50/1


Obviously plenty left
27 horses on this list
But several will not run
These are not final decs

If we then move
To the Race Statistics
We can knock a few more out

Koshari as a seasonal debutant

Past winners
Had the following career runs
15 16 19 25 17 14 24 13 13 40

The last 10 winners of this
Had at least 13 lifetime starts
The following horses fail this

Ardlethen 20/1
Lord Schnitzel 20/1
Koshari 20/1
Milan Native 25/1

Cesar Et Rosalie 50/1 fails an absence stat
Brave Eagle 20/1 fails a weight statistic

The Conditional fails an interesrting angle
Every renewal since 1997
No winners came from 3m 5f or more

Horses from 2m 7f or shorter
Aged 9 or more
Have a 0-40 record since 2004
Death Duty fails this angle

That leaves these horses
Hopefully providing the winner


Kildisart 8/1 Discorama 9/1 Mister Malarky 10/1
Who Dares Wins 10/1 La Bague Au Roi 14/1 Le Breuil 14/1
Dallas des Pictons 16/1 No Comment 16/1 Cloth Cap 20/1
Cloudy Glen 20/1 Burbank 25/1 Just A Sting 25/1
Mulcahys Hill 25/1 Poker Play 25/1 Quarenta 25/1
Cabaret Queen 33/1 Like The Sound 33/1
Ice Cool Champs 40/1 Vivas 50/1

18 left

Still more than I would like

But half of these will not run

Some won't get in the race

Some will be easy to rule out

That is the end of the drill

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