7 Previews 
0 Account Bet   
1 Highlighted Bet today
1 Highlighted Bet  Saturday




Highlighted Bet (1)

Cheltenham 4.05

ONE TRUE KING 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5





Highlighted Bet (2)

Ante Post (Saturday)

Paddy Power Gold Cup

Cheltenham 2.15

SKY PIRATE 16/1

£3.50 Each Way


18/1 Skybet
16/1 All other firms

Staking £7 today
Staking £3 Saturday






Today's Message   



Cheltenham

Start of the 3 day meeting
Expecting Saturday to rain
Which is partly the reason
Why Sky Pirate is given now


7 Previews

Fairyhouse 12.25
Cheltenham 1.15
Cheltenham 1.50
Newcastle 1.23
Cheltenham 3.00
Cheltenham 3.35
Cheltenham 4.05


Tomorrow

Paddy Power Gold Cup

Sky Pirate 16/1


Discussing him all week 
Staking just the £7 today
There will be £3 of savers
Saint Sonnet a possibility
Siruh Du Lac could yet be

Not many seem to like him
If he manages to get round
Without drama or bad luck 
Then I can see him winning


 
Cheltenham 4.05

ONE TRUE KING 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5



Was not the original plan
The horse was 5/1 earlier

£4 Each Way was my strategy
£2 Saver The Bees Knees

The price has gone though
Could go win bet and saver
But can not ignore 5 places
 
 
Cheltenham 1.15

There was a possible bet
With spellbinding angles
But prices went yesterday
In a race we usually get right   

INDUNO 7/4 - 2/1

Not interested now

Ridiculous price at 7/4 

Value is just an illusion
 
Going for a Novelty bet





Novelty bet


Cheltenham 1.15 - Induno 7/4 (Banker)

Cheltenham 4.05 - The Bees Knees 7/2 (Banker)

Paddy Power Gold Cup 

Saint Sonnet 5/1
Al Dancer 10/1
Siruh Du Lac 12/1
Sky Pirate 16/1


4 x £2.50 Trebles

Banker + Banker + 4 horses



What this basically means

Induno winning the 1.15pm

The Bees Knees winning
 
For a £10 Stake

You get over £30 on 4 horses

Running in the Saturdays big race 
The worst result returns £180

Obviously I would much prefer
The highlighted bet in the 4.05pm
But this could be some insurance





Thursday's Review 

We ended up with only 4 races
With Echo Beach not running
Dreadful start - excellent finish
The first selection drifted badly
The 6/4 saver bet fell at the 1st
Best bet of message came next
Made a real dogs dinner of this
Ugly staking poor performance
I left myself much too little time  
Understand issues I assumed
Was looking like a repulsive day
Aggy With It won at a short price
Paid for a loser steadied the ship
The last preview rescued things
Highly accurate + very profitable
It was easily the best race done  
Donnachies Girl an 11/1 winner
Helped after the best bet failed
 




PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Fairyhouse 12.25
 
4/1 Et Dite, 9/2 Heaven Help Us, Jack Dillinger
11/2 Farmix, 6/1 Ujumpthelastuwin, 8/1 Cavalry Master
8/1 Paranoid, 14/1 Carrigmoorna Pine, 20/1 De Mazzaro
20/1 Dis Donc, 33/1 Lady Of The Sea, 66/1 Central Court.

2m Novice Chase

ET DITE

Willie Mullins

But a mare having her chase debut
With a long absence is not that safe

September to December
Novice and Beginners Chases
Run over 2m 2f and shorter
Mares having chase debuts
First time out this season
Under 10 career starts are 0-28

No surprise if she wins
Willie Mullins can always beat a stat
But heavy ground and not for me

Similar races at this time of year
Horses from 2m 5f last time
Beaten in that race
Running within 2 weeks
Have a poor 1-102 record
PARANOID fails this statistic

HEAVEN HELP US ran 12 days ago
Despite that being a Graded chase
His 51 length defeat is offputting
UPJUMPTHELASTTUWIN ran 5 days ago
Beaten 20 lengths starting 80/1 there
Suggests a high degree of risk
CARRIGMOORNA PINE is similar
Heavy recent defeat at a huge price


JACK DILLINGER is a 9yo

November
Novice and Beginners Chases
Horses aged 9 or more
Running within 7 weeks
Won a few races over 2m 4f and more
Those racing over shorter are 0-67 
JACK DILLINGER fails this statistic

Shortlist

CAVALRY MASTER 7/1-8/1

FARMIX 9/2-4/1

Both horses have positive profiles
Can be matched to several winners

Hard to split or stake
But at this 2m trip going this way

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet FARMIX 9/2-4/1

£1.50 Win Bet CAVALRY MASTER 7/1-8/1






Cheltenham 1.15

11/4 Induno, 4/1 Steal A March, 15/2 Castle Robin
10/1 Playa Blanca, Tango Boy, 14/1 Lungarno Palace
14/1 Magic Dancer, Tel'Art, 16/1 Hawthorn Cottage
20/1 Heavey, Silent Assistant, 20/1 Rakhine State
25/1 Morraman, Voodoo Doll, 33/1 Chieftain's Choice
33/1 Don't Ask, 33/1 The Eaglehaslanded
66/1 Presenting Yeats.
 
2m 5f Handicap Hurdle

Conditional Jockeys

Usually get the winner of this
Because the angles are strong

They are beautifully simple

1) Horses aged 7 or younger
2) Under 20 previous hurdle runs
3) Having their seasonal debuts

Almost always win this handicap

11 of the last 13 winners
Did so with a long absence

Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 0-105 record since 1999
 
Recent runs have been toxic
Horses racing within 4 weeks
Have a 0-195 record since 2001

PLAYA BLANCA has this problem
He has to come up 5f in distance
MAGIC DANCER the same problem
Horses aged 8 or more like him
Have a miserable 0-105 record
LUGARNO PRINCE also fails this
HAWTHORM COTTAGE ran recently
DId not achieve nearly enough
VOODOO DOLL comes from a chase
Thrashed and too busy this season
HEAAVEY has the same problem

Horses with runs this year
From a Novice or Maiden hurdle
Have a 0-47 in this race
CASTLE ROBIN fails this angle

Horses with runs this year
Coming from a hurdle race
Aged under 6 years old are 0-85
CASTLE ROBIN fails this angle
DON'T ASK is a 7yo
Looks to have too much weight
Far more than any his age won with
MORRAMAN has the same problem

TEL'ART has a recent run
Pulled up in that race 7 weeks ago
Can not match him to any winners

TANGO BAY is a 7yo
There were 2 past winners aged 7
Who ran first time out that season
Both had far more experience
Both had less weight as well

Best Profiles

SILENT ASSISTANT

STEAL A MARCH

INDUNO
  
INDUNO has the best profile
As he comes from a Novice
Not overkeen on David Pipe
But he's won this race 4 times 
Not convinced with the others 
 
It was never looking likely

That we could get any value

Selection

INDUNO 2/1

Win Bet







Newcastle 1.23

2/1 Rubytwo, 4/1 Shantou Street, 13/2 Esme Shelby
7/1 Miss Mahmite, 8/1 Shanbally Rose, 9/1 La Mystere
12/1 Eeyore, 14/1 Moore Clouds, 40/1 Orient Sunset, 
50/1 Chroi Old Girl, Orlas' Abbey 100/1 Convivial.

Mares Maiden hurdle 2m 4f

If you look at this race
Prioritising horses achievements
Prioritising there experience too
RUBYTWO would be the selection
But she is 8 and absent 58 days

Mares Maiden Hurdles
February to December
Any distance
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 24 days
Have a 0-66 record in them
RUBYTWO fails this statistic

If we oppose her
We have little to cling onto
Unraced horses long absences
Unsafe trainers and bumper types

Certainly nothing solid each way
So decided to make her a saver
Many of the 66 that were beaten
Were not expected to win anyway

Small Stakes

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet SHANTOU STREET 11/2

£3.50 Win Bet RUBYTWO 7/4






Cheltenham 1.50

3/1 Magic Saint, 100/30 On The Slope
 4/1 Fanion D'Estruval, 11/2 Beat The Judge
15/2 Ballywood, 9/1 Eamon An Cnoic, 12/1 Born Survivor
33/1 Azzuri, 100/1 Full Glass.
 
2m Handicap Chase

Unusual race this year

5 Horses are aged under 7
The last horse that young to win
Was quite a way back in 2009
Since then they were 0-24 in this

None aged under 7 years old
Have won with more than 11st 6lbs

MAGIC SAINT has this problem
He has 12st with a 5lbs claimer rider

FANION D'ESTRUVAL is only a 5yo
Horses aged 5 have a 1-12 record
That winner 20 years ago 10st 5lbs
FANION D'ESTRUVAL has 11st 12lbs

Anything could go wrong here
Small field and many youngsters

BORN SURVIVOR is a 9 year old
Did not achieve enough last time
AZZURI has the same problem
FULL GLASS looks outclassed

BALLYWOOD is a 6 year old
Respected but quite exposed now

Cheltenham Handicap Chases 
Run over 2m 3f and shorter
Since 1997
Show 14 winners aged 6
None had more than 11 chase runs
BALLYWOOD has had 12 already

EAMON AN CHOICE 9yo first time out
Not a negative but he could need this
Equally could be primed and ready

BEAT THE JUDGE is a 5yo
He only has 4 previous chase runs
Horses aged 5 have a 1-12 record
That winner in 2000 had 8 chase runs
Not a negative but not a great match
With experience being his main worry

ON THE SLOPES is shortlistable
I was going with him each way 100/30
But just wonder of he is on the bounce

Go back in this race to 2000
Horses with 1 run that season
Running over 2m 1f or shorter
Under 18 Chase starts
I find a 0-25 record in them
ON THE SLOPES has this problem 

Could be wrong
But staying with the horses
That do not have 1 run this year

Selection

£8 Win Bet BEAT THE JUDGE 11/2 - 5/1

£1 Win Bet  EAMON AN CHOICE 8/1

£1 Win Bet BALLYWOOD 8/1







Cheltenham 3.00

4/6 Easysland, 5/2 Tiger Roll, 8/1 Potters Corner
20/1 Kingswell Theatre, 20/1 Vino Royale
25/1 Kings Temptation, 33/1 Beau Du Brizais
33/1 Little Bruce, 66/1 Vivas.

Cross Country Chase

The big guns are out

EASYLAND won at the festival
TIGER ROLL finished in second

Can not be much between them
I don't fancy any of the others
Several of these are outclassed
VINO ROYALE is only a 5 year old

POTTERS CORNER is a 10yo
He won last years Welsh National
This could be a prep race for that
He has no Cheltenham form at all
It is his Cross Country debut too
Against the best in the discipline

Have to see this as a match
TIGER ROLL has had a prep run
That was on the flat over 1m 6f
He was beaten 29 lengths in that

He's never won here
During the pre Christmas meetings 
EASYLAND has and is much younger
Marginally prefer the French horse


Obviously 4/6 is very short
So going to split stake this race


Selection 
 
£6 Win Bet EASYLAND 4/6 -8/11

£4 Place Bet POTTERS CORNER 11/10 - 1/1






Cheltenham 3.35

6/4 Does He Know, 11/4 Grand Mogul
11/2 Wild Romance, 9/1 The Grand Visir
10/1 Polish, 16/1 Ballymillsy, Petrastar.

Graded Novice Hurdle 2m 5f

Messy race with 7 runners
BALLYMILLSY looks beatable
Has miles to find on figures
PETRASTAR doesn't appeal
His sires hurdlers
Running in Listed or Graded races
On ground softer than good
Are 0-30 over any distance

THE GRAND VISIR has a chance
His 3 hurdle numbers are modest
Some way behind the best of these

WILD ROMANCE is unsafe

Cheltenham Novice Hurdles
Both Graded and non Graded
Any distance
Any time of year
Since 2007

Mares have a 1-46 record
Those aged 5 were 0-19
Those with under 7 runs were 0-18
Those with under 4 hurdles were 0-24
WILE ROMANCE fails all the above
She only has 2 runs 1 over hurdles

Horses from 3m Novices
Won 2 of the previous renewals
Both winners 1st or 2nd last time
POLISH didn't quite manage that
But a 3rd place is forgivable

Unoriginal shortlist
  
GRAND MOGUL 11/4-5/2
DOES HE KNOW 6/4
POLISH 10/1

7 Runners
Square pegs round holes
So taking a chance this way


Selection

£6 Win Bet POLISH 10/1

£4 Win Bet DOES HE KNOW 6/4






Cheltenham 4.05

9/2 The Bees Knees, 5/1 Panic Attack, 8/1 One True King
9/1 Chasamax, Seaborn, 10/1 Art Approval, Leroy Leroy
12/1 Princess T,  12/1 Takeit Easy, 12/1 Percy's Word
14/1 Hazzaar, 20/1 Hydroplane, 25/1 Calvinist
33/1 Guildhall, Lively Citizen, Motashakel, 50/1 Motdepas.
 
Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m 

Go back 20 years
Every Handicap hurdle here
Any class
Any distance
Horses aged 4
Coming from maiden hurdles
With 2 or more hurdle runs
Have a 0-52 record

ART APROVAL fails this angle
PANIC ATTACK also fails this
She is a 4yo mare as well
Asking a lot in her first handicap

CALVANIST is the oldest horse
Ran too badly too recently
MOTDEPAS doesn't offer enough

Horses aged 4
Who ran this season
Coming from a hurdle race
Finishing 3rd or worse last time
Have a 0-39 record in them 
This suggests these horses
Did not run well enough last time

MOTASHAKEL
GUILDHALL
HYDROPLANE

LEROY LEROY has won 2 hurdles
Done very well sired by a sprinter
With a stamina index of only 6.6f
A sire whose never had a winner here
LEROY LEROY may struggle to get home

LIVELY CITIZEN looks short of class
He also drops from a 2m 4f race
None of the last 20 winners did that (0-42)

PRINCESS T is a mare
Not a negative and won last time
But this is a much harder race for her

HAZZAAR is a 6yo first time out
Not many like him win over the years
There are safer profiles here

SEABORN is a 6yo
He's been running on the flat
Feel his best chance would come
If one or two others disappoint
He is an exposed dual purpose horse

CHASAMAX is lightly raced
Respected from a serious stable
But he will need to show improvement
And the track may be a concern
With a flat track start to his career

Horses aged 5 or more
Over 3 career starts
With 1 run this season
Have a 0-41 record in this
TAKE IT EASY has this problem

This interests me as well

Horses aged 5 or older
With 4 or more career starts
Having 1-2-3 races this season
Beaten last time out
Have a miserable 1-101 record

PERCYS WORD has this profile
CHASAMAX also fails this
ONE TRUE KING fails that

Given he has 3 recent runs
And from a Cheltenham handicap
ONE TRUE KING is given a pass
But he has plenty of weight here
No past winner had 12st weight

THE BEES KNEES

Won easily 9 days ago

The 2006 2009 2013 2017 winners
All came with very good recent runs
Has momentum
Has the fittest profile


The biggest question mark
Will Cheltenham suit him ?

Personally
I like this option

£5 Win Bet ONE TRUE KING 4/1

£5 Place Bet THE BEES KNEES 4/5

Lot of safety in that bet



ONE TRUE KING may have topweight
But not many can win this race

He was second here last time out
That was in a far better handicap
Started favourite
Made him a negative
Threw a lot of bad angles at him

Prices have dictated though

We can not afford a saver



Final Selection

ONE TRUE KING 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5


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