4 Previews
0 Account Bet   
0 Highlighted Bet



No Bet Today
  


Today's Racing 


Last message till Boxing day 
Racing is taking a 4 day break

Happy Christmas everybody
Hope you all enjoy the break

End of a run of messages now
We had a successful weekend 
No plans to give it back today
So a realistic 4 race message


Musselburgh 12.15
Lingfield 12.30
Lingfield 2.05
Lingfield 3.05


My favourite Bet

Lingfield 3.05 

£5 Win Bet ZULA ZANDER 100/30-7/2

£5 Place Bet COMEATCHOO 4/5

Like the strategy here
Obviously given it is a split stake
Involving a place bet as well
Don't feel I can stake this as a bet
But I doubt I would have anyway



The other race I liked was this

Lingfield 2.05

£4.00 Each Way A SURE WELCOME 15/2-8/1

£1.00 Win Bet EL HOMBRE 10/1-11/1 

£1.00 Win Bet BENEFIT STREET 8/1-9/1

Easy to get the staking wrong here
This is by far the hardest race today
And this is also a complicated stake 






Today's Best Bet
 
 
Lingfield 2.05

£4.00 Each Way A SURE WELCOME 15/2-8/1

£1.00 Win Bet EL HOMBRE 10/1-11/1 

£1.00 Win Bet BENEFIT STREET 8/1-9/1





Sunday's Review

No losing bets from 4 previews
Very pleased with those results
Very surprised there was a bet
This was won by our saver bet
Gorhams Cave returned stakes
Saver winning main bet was 3rd
Very happy with those negatives
The message finished W P W P
Good staking made a difference
Consolidated and 2 strong days
  


 
 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
 
  


Musselburgh 12.15

4/6 Moon King 7/1 La Mystere, 
11/1 Goodtimes Badtimes 14/1 Cochisee
25/1 Diamond State 40/1 Morningside
50/1 Style Nelson 50/1 Tara Kay.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

Several different types here
None of these are safe enough
No profile appeals to me at all
We could trust in the numbers
MOON KING the standard setter

ALRIGHT SUNSHINE 

He was odds on
He is now a non runner

I was going to split stake this

Moon King who was 9/4 a win bet
La Mystere who was 11/8 for a place

Decided now after the non runner
To have a small each way bet at 6/1
  
MOON KING will probably win
But he does fail this statistic

October to December
Maiden Hurdles over 2m 2f +
Since 2010
Horses aged 4
Previous flat form
Over 11 career starts
Return a 0-48 record in them

LA MYSTERE has hurdling experience
Represents a National hunt preparation 
At the prices rather than bet odds on
She looked a sporting price each way

Selection
 
LA MYSTERE  5/1-11/2 6/1

Each Way





Lingfield 12.30

5/2 Sword Spirit, 3/1 Regal Eagle
8/1 Critical Thinking, 9/1 Deb's Delight
12/1 Kendergarten Kop, Run After Genesis
14/1 Pearl Spectre 16/1 Nezar, 20/1 Prince Rock
25/1 Moxy Mares, 33/1 Performance Poet.

8f Handicap

SWORD SPIRIT a 3yo filly
Coming from a high class stable
Has raced once twice before

December
Class 6 Handicaps
Any distance
Since 2008
Show fillies aged 3
Under 3 career starts are 0-15
SWORD SPIRIT fails this

If we go back to 2010
December Class 6 Handicaps
Run over a mile or shorter
3yo fillies with under 4 runs
Have a 0-50 record in them

She may win
My angle say don't trust her

Some others hard to like much
MOXY MARES has a poor draw 
KENERGARTEN KOP is rejected
Just can not entertain the trainer
PERFORMANCE POET is a filly
She will find it hard 53 days off
PEARL SPECTRE a 9yo rated 48
Does not look to have much class
PRINCE ROCK has the same problem

NEZAR looks too risky
As a 9 year old going up in distance

RUN AFTER GENESIS a positive
I see a horse about to hit form
But not one without some quirks
He will probably start a bit slowly
That worries me as he is drawn 1
At this track over this distance
He may not have the tactical speed


Shortlist

REGAL EAGLE
CRITICAL THINKING
DEB'S DELIGHT 

REGAL EAGLE fit and in form
Having his first Lingfield run

DEB'S DELIGHT is hard to read
Lightly raced 3yo up in distance
Down in class and work in progress

CRITICAL THINKING is topweight
Very fit and won 6 again days ago
Has always wanted a recent run
9 wins came within a run in 19 days
Proven here and should go well

The sensible bet
CRITICAL THINKING as a place bet
Reducing the need to trust others
With an each way bet in a tight race

Selection

£6 Win Bet REGAL EAGLE 7/2 (Betfair)

£4 Place Bet CRITICAL THINKING 6/4 +







Lingfield 2.05

5/1 Araifjan, 11/2 Merhoob, 13/2 Tin Hat
7/1 A Sure Welcome, Benefit Street, 8/1 Pop Dancer
9/1 Where's Mick, 10/1 El Hombre, 11/1 Count Otto
16/1 Bombastic, Charming Kid, 20/1 Doc Sportello.

6f Handicap

146 similar races 

Lingfield 6f Handicaps
Since 2008
Horses aged 7 or more
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-70 record

MERHOOB is 8 drawn 12
That suggests he may lose

BOMBASTIC is bottomweight
His figures look to low

TIN HAT looks underraced
Having raced once since July
Horses aged 4
Over 7 career starts
Just 1 run in 4 months are 0-27
TIN HAT has this profile

DOC SPORTELLO is rejected
As an 8yo coming from a 5f race
COUNT OTTO is not obvious
CHARMING KID is short of runs

POP DANCER is a 3yo
He has 15 runs comes from 5f
Not a negative but my statistics
Just question carrying 9st 9lbs
More weight than any like him

ARAIFJAN does have positives
Fit consistent and running well
Happy to overlook no Lingfield form
But I have 2 problems with him
He is 11th in the weights
Does that suggest he lacks class
He is also drawn in stall 1
Most people say that's an advantage
Probably is but in fields of 10 or more ?

Lingfield 6f Handicaps
10 and more runners

Horses drawn 1

Have a 0-18 record in 2020
Have a 0-38 record since 2019
Have a 1-53 record since 2018

Fine in fields of 9 or less
But unless we get non runners
I'd argue that's no safe draw

WHERES MICK has his chance
But has just 1 run in 2 months
There are fitter profiles here
BENEFIT STREET can go well

Staying with 2 fit older horses
Who are dropping down the weights
A SURE WELCOME the number 1
With the fittest overall profile

Selection

£4.00 Each Way A SURE WELCOME 15/2-8/1

£1.00 Win Bet EL HOMBRE 10/1-11/1 

£1.00 Win Bet BENEFIT STREET 8/1-9/1





Lingfield 3.05

4/1 Zulu Zander, 5/1 Boom The Groom
6/1 Comeatchoo, 6/1 Shamshon, 6/1 Smokey
7/1 Solar Park 7/1 Spurofthemoment, 9/1 Jorvik Prince
33/1 Something Lucky.
 
5f Handicap 

BOOM THE GROOM 
Could be on the bounce
He won here 8 days ago
His first run since July

Similar races show
Horses with 1 run in 3 + months
Running within the last 14 days
Have a 0-87 record in these races
That is evidence of the bounce
Being a 9 year old doesn't help 
BOOM THE GROOM is rejected

SPUROFTHEMOMENT a 3yo filly
Underraced with 1 run in 130 days
SHAMSHON is 9 absent 37 days
Needed a shorter absence for him
SOMETHING LUCKY is an 8yo
Not running well enough given age
JORVICK PRINCE has his chance
But there are fitter profiles here
Not keen on stall 9 for a claimer
SOLAR PARK another to respect
But again there are fitter profiles 

SMOKEY is a 3yo filly 
Short on class but at least fit
She is going up in class here

COMEATCHOO

Ran 5 days ago
He was our best bet of the day
You may remember the dilemma
Fittest horse with the worst draw
Ran a great race in 3rd each way

Fittest profile in the race
What is not to like here ?

Well his class could be a factor
This is a better class of race
Today he has the lowest rating
Yes he gets weight but still lowest

He has raced 39 times before
Career best Racing Post Rating of 62
Exposes him as a class 6 horse
His fitness may be enough to win
But there are classier horses here

Last time fittest horse worst draw
This time fittest horse least classy

Feel we should split stake him
And have him as a place bet here
ZULA ZANDER a classier horse
Could mow him down late in the race

Selection

£5 Win Bet ZULA ZANDER 100/30-7/2

£5 Place Bet  COMEATCHOO 4/5





  
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Next Message

Boxing Day
 
 
Some time this week
Will do the Welsh National

Might even send this early

Would not be a big surprise
If we abandoned once again
And then rescheduled later
But will proceed as normal


Not much to say today

Just a recap of a few things


PDC Darts

Michael Van Gerwin

Won his first game
Trading around 15/8

Very much on schedule 
To engineer a free bet
Will be laying the bet off
Before we get to the semi
Assuming he gets there

Football


Salford City

Latest Update

Won 0-1 away on Saturday

 
League Table

Newport 37pts
Forest Green 36pts
Carlisle 35pts
Cheltenham 33pts
Morecame 31pts
Exeter 30pts
Salford 30pts
Wallsall 30pts

If they win their game in hand
They will move into 4th place

Boxing day is their next game
Home to Walsall also on 30pts

Reasonably happy with the bet
The defence has been excellent
Conceded only 14 goals all year
That's fewer than any other team

Salford have had some injuries
Smart players are returning now
Throw in a new transfer window
Salford's budget just unrivalled

10/1 Skybet Chandler
9/1 Ladbrokes Bet365 Unibet 
9/1 Corals Boyles Betfred


Salford 9/1-10/1 

Each Way

Even with just the 3 places
Starting to look rather good
This is about staying 46 games
Many teams will not get home
We could get several players
When the transfer window ends

I would rather double my bet
Than half it given the choice

 
Premier League

Already Advised


Liverpool 2/1

Each Way

1/3 Odds 1-2


This bet looks good now 
Liverpool are now 10/11-1/1 
Hard to see them not 1st-2nd


Liverpool

Don't need to anything
Because of the above bet

If I had not given that bet
I'd have recommended this

Percentage Club

Liverpool 50% win 1/1

Not an official bet

As we are already involved
But looking at current prices
If you staked 50% on Liverpool
You could not lose if they won

The remaining 50% of stakes
Could even be on them later on
That would make it hard to lose
Seems a very sensible half bet

*********************************************************
*********************************************************