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Highlighted Bet

Ayr 12.45

MECCAS HOT STEPS 7/2 - 100/30

Each Way


7/2 Corals Skybet Chandler Unibet

7/2 Ladbrokes Betfred Betway Spbet 

100/30 Hills Bet365



4 Bets in 4 days

What is happening to me
The choice of 4 possible bets
Gone with the most practical
I prefer my Irish bets tonight
But can not trust weak markets
Highlight account mainly used
For the unusual stakes like this
Where a place is a part return






Today's Message   


8 Previews
5 Ayr
2 Ballinrobe
1 Windsor

 
Confident and in the zone
Results have been very good
So hoping to keep this going
With 4 bets standing out today


Ayr 12.45
Ayr 1.50
Ayr 2.20
Ayr 2.50 
Ayr 3.50
Ballinrobe 4.45
Ballinrobe 5.15
Windsor 8.00


Ayr 12.45

MECCAS HOT STEPS 3/1- 7/2

Each Way

Two staking options here

1) Each way bet around 3/1 
2) Win and saver on Ice Lady  

Favourite has a bad profile
But the each way strategy
Allows me to be badly wrong
And have a chance of repair





Ayr 3.50

£7.00 Win Bet DREAMSELLER 5/2

£3.00 Win Bet CATCH MY BREATH 9/4-5/2

Can only see these two runners
Prices are a bit on the short side
Dreamseller would be a 6/4 winner
With money back if favourite wins

 


Ballinrobe 4.45

LOVE BRACELET 7/2- 4/1 -9/2

Win Bet

Trust Aidan 
The offices went 9/4 early
The horse was 5/1 on Betfair
Prices have now come in line
The general price around 4/1
Seems ridiculously good value
Her main two market dangers
Both have problematic draws
But the problem we run into
This is in a very weak market
Could be 6/4 or 8/1 by tonight
I trust Aidan with fillies like her
As its very important she wins
And she has crucial momentum
But can't trust outside factors
Such as the price of getting on




Ballinrobe 5.15

YENILLIK 6/1-13/2-7/1

Each Way

Losing account bet last time
Nothing went right that day
Upset in the stalls for starters
Drops from handicap to maiden
Not sure if this is the right move
Handicaps may just suit more
The bare minimum target here
Recover stakes for last time out
Gone each way for the message
But I have backed him win only




Plans this week

Thursday 

No Message

Got a speed awareness course 
So I have to drop that message

That will be a day off this week
Messages on every other day   
Next break will be  on Thursday






Sunday's Review 
 
Excellent recovery message
Saturday my main 2 bets lost
Sunday both of the bets won
HATCHER a highlighted bet
Won nicely without any fuss
Depending on the price got
A winner around 9/4 to 11/4
Which will do me very nicely
After Saturdays big debacle
Finished  P L W L L W W P L
Got all main negatives beat 
Guessing in several races
And expected some losers
But the biggest 2 bets won
Exact reverse of yesterday
Feel it was a nice recovery

  


PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Ayr 12.45

11/4 Pretty Lady, 3/1 Mecca's Hot Steps, 7/2 Ice Ice Lady
10/1 Lara Silvia, 11/1 Rebel Redemption, 11/1 Silver Start
12/1 Leoch, Youneverletmedown, 25/1 Summer Heights
33/1 Beignet.

3yo Handicap (5f)

10 runners

Even in modest field sizes
The highest draws struggle

Ayr 5f Handicaps
Under 11 runners
Horses drawn 9 or more
Have a 1-48 record since 2010
That winner was an 8 year old

LEOCH has a bad draw
SILVER START has a bad draw

PRETTY LADY is a filly
Curious that she is favourite
When hammered last time out
When she has 1 run this season 
And all her rivals have more 
She fails this angle

July
3yo Handicaps 
Any distance
Class 5-6-7
Fillies
Under 7 career runs
Just 1 run this season
Beaten 10 + lengths last time
Have a 0-118 record in them

PRETTY LADY fails this statistic
Going to look for a safer profile
LADY SILVIA hasn't hit form yet
Unclear if trained on or likes ground
REBEL REDEMPTION 1 run in months
Meets horses who just look fitter
SUMMER HEIGHTS out of form
BEIGNET's numbers are too low
 
Shortlist

SILVER START has 11 runs
Downgraded stable at start of year
Two races as a 3yo nothing special
She is a filly running weak numbers 
But last time out at Bath she led
And set a ridiculous pace that day
She could burn herself out again
But she could also lead all the way

ICE LADY also ran in that race too
She also went off rather too quickly
She has previously won 2 races ago
Why she was hot favourite at Bath
She would win this race on that run
Excuses last time going off too fast
 
MECCAS HOT STEPS is a filly
Numbers suggest she is the class horse

Her last 2 Racing Post Ratings 67 67
Could easily be good enough here
And she had factors against her in both

She was draw 12 of 12 at Beverley
She faces soft ground at Hamilton
The record of her sire Hot Streak
Suggests she is a fast ground horse

MECCAS HOT STEPS may outclass these
ICE LADY the only horse that scares me
SILVER STAR an optional saver at 8/1-9/1

Selection

Option 1

£8.00 Win Bet MECCAS HOT STEPS 3/1-100/30

£2.00 Win Bet ICE LADY 4/1


Option 2

MECCAS HOT STEPS 3/1-100/30

Each Way




Ayr 1.50

7/2 Prissy Missy, 4/1 Who Told Jo Jo
5/1 Pearl Of Qatar 13/2 See My Baby Jive, 7/1 Almurr
15/2 Epeius, 8/1 Ventura Express, 14/1 Alioski
16/1 Grandads Best Girl, 20/1 Naples Bay.

6f Handicap

Starting with the draw

Ayr
6f Handicaps since 2003
With under 11 runners
Horses drawn 10 are 0-35
The outside stall stinks here
ALMIRR is rejected drawn 10

How do the 3 year olds get on ?

In all similar Class 6 handicaps
Run at 6f in July against elders

In 13 Ayr races
Horses aged 3 are just 1-33
In all similar races
Those with under 4 runs
Coming from 6f or shorter
Have a 0-27 record in them
VENTURA EXPRESS fails that
Those with 1 run that season
Had a 0-38 record in them
ALIOSKI is unsafe failing this 
GRANDADS BEST GIRL a 3yo
Doesn't have the class I'd want

PRISSY MISS won last time 
There were 7 fillies aged 3
That did that and none followed up
She may be too exposed with 15 runs

NAPLES BAY isn't running well
SEE MY BABY JIVE is a 4yo filly
She only has 4 career starts
No filly aged 4 won with under 4 runs
No 4 year old of any sex
Who had raced that season
Won with under 6 runs (0-26)
SEE MY BABY JIVE Fails this angle
I would shortlist 3 horses

EPEIS
PEARL OF WATAR
WHO TOLD JO JO

This is not a good each way race
This is not a confident conclusion

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet EPEIUS 4/1-9/2

£1.50 Win Bet  PEARL OF WATAR 6/1

£1.50 Win Bet WHO TOLD JO JO 61 




Ayr 2.20

7/2 My Dandy Doc, 9/2 Angels Faces
5/1 Star Cracker 6/1 Eveaaj, 13/2 Jordan Electrics
8/1 Laoise, 9/1 Castlehill Retreat, 12/1 Grace And Virtue
14/1 Kolossus, 20/1 Loulin. 

6f Handicap

Division 2 of the earlier race
So the same angles apply here

10 runners
5 of them 3 year olds
5 of them older horses

EVEAAJ is drawn 10
She has the worst draw here
And with just 2 runs is opposed
Similar races over 6f show us
Horses with 1 run that season
Had a poor 0-38 record in them
GRACE AND VIRTUE fails this
ANGEL FACES fails this as well
She is wrong coming from 5f
No 3yo won with a long absence
CASTEHILL RETREAT fails this
MY DANDY DOCK is a 3 year old
Did well winnning last time out
But no 3yo have won these races
With just 1 run this year like him
And he was a 50/1 chance there 

None of the 3 year olds
Offer enough to be selected
Hope an older horse may win 
LOULIN feels very resistable

JORDAN ELECTRICS is a 4yo
KOLOSSUE is a 4yo
Both 1 run this year
Both have a big weight too
Neither profile feels safe

Ths may be a relevant angle

Runs since June
 
4 Laoise
2 Star Cracker
2 Eveaaj
1 Jordan Electrics
1 Kolossus
1 Loulin.
1 Angels Faces
1 My Dandy Doc
1 Grace And Virtue
0 Castlehill Retreat
 
LAOISE has the most recent runs
But she is a low scoring 4yo filly
Her Racing Post Ratings are weak
STAR CRACKER is the oldest horse
He is 3 years older than the others
But a good recent run helps a lot

Selection

STAR CRACKER 6/1

Each Way






Ayr 2.50

10/11 Summa Peto, 13/8 Chase The Dollar
6/1 Spectrometer, 8/1 Pythagoras, 12/1 Innse Gall.

7f Maiden

SUMMER PETO with 2 runs
Finished 2nd over 7f last time
Many will asssume he stays 7f
The form book suggests she does

But last time was a 2 horse race
They went no gallop at all there
Speedy Amercian pedigree as well
May well win but not for me over 7f
When none from his sire Dialed In
Have won over 6f or more before

Thats my only interest
Seeing if his stamina holds out

If you gave me a free £10 bet 
I would stake the race this way

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet CHASE THE DOLLAR

£1.50 Win Bet SPECTROMETER





Ayr 3.50

5/2 Catch My Breath, 7/2 Dreamseller, 6/1 Insurplus
15/2 My Valentino, 11/1 Philip's Wish 12/1 Jacob Black
12/1 Lucky Violet, 14/1 Reaver, 20/1 Khazaf.

8f Handicap

Not many safe profiles

Opposing the following
On grounds they are underraced

PHILIPS WISH - INSURPLUS
JACOB BLACK - REAVER

INSURPLUS looks wrong
As a 7yo coming from a 6f race
Having raced just once this year
No 8f handicap won by a similar type
On turf in any month of the year 
All 35 that tried were beaten

Opposing the following
Because of their low numbers 
Or not doing enough last time out

KHAZAF
LUCKY VIOLET 
MY VALENTINO

Only 2 horses
Had enough positives

Shortlist

CATCH MY BREATH
DREAMSELLER

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet DREAMSELLER 5/2

£3.00 Win Bet CATCH MY BREATH 9/4-5/2




Ballinrobe 4.45

11/4 Red Line Alexander, 5/1 Love Bracelet
11/2 Solene Lilyette, 6/1 Elite Craft, Sweeproad
13/2 St Clerans, 15/2 Zofar Zogood, 12/1 Mere Catherine
14/1 Treasure Today, 66/1 Atlantique, Nailed Down
66/1 Runcible, 100/1 War Witch, 150/1 Approachable.

Fillies Maiden (9f-10f)
 
A few strong contenders

The draw could be an issue
Because of a sharp early bend

Since 2012
Ballinrobe 9f races
Horses drawn 11 or more
With under 13 career starts
Have a 0-44 record 

RED LIKE ALEXANDER in stall 13
Will have to overcome a bad draw
SOLENE LILYETTE is drawn  12
Bad draw for an unraced filly
TRESURE TODAY drawn 14 of 14

There are several dark horses
Who could put bad runs behind then
SWEEPROAD could improve
But she was 100/1 on her debut

LOVE BRACELET

Gets the verdict from Aidan
  
She is exposed with 6 runs
But her last two races
Were career best numbers
She is fit and well drawn
And has some momentum too

She has raced twice this year
I opposed her on both starts

She had a very bad draw first time
In a huge field Curragh Handicap

Last time in a Killarney Handicap
She had too much weight
As a filly with just 1 run this year

We should expect improvement
I think she has to go quite close

Selection

LOVE BRACELET 9/4

Win Bet 




Ballinrobe 5.15

3/1 Midnight Sunshine, 100/30 Globe Theatre
7/2 Nan Yehi, 6/1 Beauty Of Deira, 7/1 Longbourn
15/2 Roundel, 8/1 Yenillik, 25/1 Bocas Del Toro
66/1 Banjo, 100/1 Assam, Clonbrien, Rubys Jazz
100/1 The Jam Man, 150/1 Van Wert.

9f Maiden
For older horses

No 3 year olds in this 

The draw could be an issue
Because of a sharp early bend 
Since 2012
Ballinrobe 9f races 
Horses drawn 11 or more
With under 13 career starts
Have a 0-44 record 

GLOBE THEATRE drawn 14
Looks opposable because of that

BEAUTY OF DEIRA has 1 run this year
A filly beaten over 12 lengths as well
Maybe asking a bit much of her today
ROUNDEL doesn't offer enough
LONGBOURN the same problems

MIDNIGHT SUNSHINE is respected
Won't be surprised if she wins this
NAN YEHI could also improve to win


YENILLIK 

No idea if this is the right race  
But we backed her last time out

She was an account bet
Each way at 12/1 in a handicap
Nothing went her way that day

She got upset in the stalls
She was checker early on
Shuffled back losing her place
Forced to race wide she was done

I fancied her there
As she had so many good excuses
She did not stay in her first 4 races
All over 12f and all on softer ground

His 5th race was over 1m 6f
I doubt he stayed there on soft

YENILLIK then dropped 4f
Good 2nd in a Roscommon maiden
Disadvantaged by a 4f drop in trip

He then went to Cork
Creditable 4th when drawn 14 of 14
Very hard to win there drawn that high

DIdn't stay 12f on heavy next time
Then he went to Leopardstown
Heavy ground another bad draw 
He has had a ton of valid excuses
  
First time out this year
Gowran Park Maiden race
Ran a decent 2nd at 12/1
Ran into one of Joseph O'Briens
And then her last luckless race

Hoping
She can repay the faith I have in her
But not sure if thats better placed
In a handicap rather than a maiden

Selection

YENILLIK 6/1

Each Way





Windsor 8.00

9/4 Chai Yo Power, 100/30 Star Of Wins
4/1 Arabian Romance, 9/1 Bright Start, Winter Thorn
10/1 Hasty Sailor, Unforgetable Colt, 16/1 Divine Consent
20/1 King Charles, 25/1 Calm Down, Jen's Fella
66/1 Rockinovertheworld, 100/1 Word Of Honour
100/1 Bay May, Fulbeck Girl, 100/1 Onedownunder.

10f Maiden

2 Angles
Not sure how safe either are

Windsor 10f races
Since 2011
Horses drawn 13 or higher
Having under 3 career starts
Have a poor 1-77 record
They are 0-43 since 2015

CHAI YO POWER fails this
Stall 13 just higher than ideal
KING CHARLES unraced drawn 14
DIVINE CONSENT drawn 15
UNFORGETTABLE COLT drawn 16
All have plenty on their plates

ARABIAN ROMANCE is an option
She was second over 10f on debut
She will probably be fine over 10f

But so far none from her sire
Have won over 10f or more
Without at least 4 career starts (0-15)
ARABIAN ROMANCE has one

None sired by No Nay Never
Have won over 8f or more yet
Without a least 2 previous runs (0-20)
ARABIAN ROMANCE also fails this

Won't be at all surprised
If she overcomes these angles

Playing it this way



Small Stakes

SELECTION

STAR OF WINS 7/2-4/1-9/2

Each Way




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