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Today's Message

First message of the week
Very gentle comeback effort
Started this later than ideal
And not yet up to full speed 
  
Musselburgh 1.15
Doncaster 1.30
Musselburgh 1.45
Doncaster 2.00
Chepstow 5.00



Sending an early message
Don't think I can develop it
Just not my kind of cards


Today's Best Bet


Musselburgh 1.45

JOSHUA R 1/1 -10/11 

Win Bet


  

PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Musselburgh 1.15

2/1 Ghathanfar, 7/2 Bibbidibobbidiboo, 9/2 Logi
11/2 How Bizarre, 6/1 Oriental Lilly, 12/1 Colour Contrast
12/1 Merricourt, 25/1 Stronsay.

7f Handicap

Opposing the first time out horses

Colour Contrast
Merricourt

ORIENTAL LILY is an exposed mare
Not for me with months off the track
STRONGSAY didn't do enough last time

BIBBIDIBOBBIDIBOO looks unsafe
Similar races over 7f show
Mares aged 5 or more
Coming from 6f or shorter
Running within 2 weeks are 0-43

LOGI has a chance
He looks shortlistable
His biggest two dangers
Have raced more this year

GHATHANFAR has a fit profile
Ran well just 4 days ago in second
That was a career best performance

HOW BIZARRE interests me
He has had 3 runs this month
Drops from a mile at Beverley
Where he was not well drawn there

If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
His 7 best figures
All came at this track
He looks a track specialist

He also likes a small field
He is 0-13 in fields of 10 or more


Selection

Option 1

8 or more runners

HOW BIZARRE 4/1

Each Way


Option 2

Fewer than 8 runners

£6.50 Win Bet HOW BIZARRE 4/1

£3.50 Win Bet GHATHANFAR 7/4





Doncaster 1.30

11/4 Mr Wagyu, 9/2 Double Up, 11/2 Turn To Rock
6/1 Big Lachie, 6/1 Mutabaahy, 6/1 Redrosezorro
8/1 Aliento, 10/1 Sheepscar Lad, 20/1 Archimedes.

6f Handicap

Ideally I'd stay with the runners
With two or more recent races
I would choose from one of these

MY WAGYU
BIG LACHIE
MUTABAAHY

ALIENTO has an absence
ARCHIMEDES the same problem
They are the bottomweights
May struggle to concede fitness
To several higher rated horses 
SHEEPSCAR LAD has a long break
Low scoring stable and 0-15 over this trip

TURN TO ROCK may pop up
But he has plenty to prove today
Topweight with a long absence
First run for a news stable as well
This is his first ever race on turf

MY WAGYU won 8 days ago
Dropped significantly in the weights
Should be capable of winning again
Given all his wins are at this distance
All his wins are on good or faster
All his wins are in June and July as well
Sneaking in a small saver
DOUBLE UP may be a 9yo
But he drops in class for this race
Having been drawn badly last time

Selection

£8 Win Bet MY WAGYU 5/2

£2 Win Bet DOUBLE UP 9/2





Musselburgh 1.45

11/8 Annangel, 13/8 Joshua R
7/2 Sound Of Iona  20/1 Shackabooah
33/1 Pilgrims Pursuit.

5f Novice

Not many can win this

SOUNDS OF IONA is a filly
Drifting with a long absence
If she does not win this race
We should have a match

ANNANGEL has 2 runs
JOSHUA has 3 runs

ANNANGEL won at Beverley
Warning signs as she started 80/1
Hardly suggests a lot of confidence

I think she was handed that race
The favourite didn't stay after a break
The 3rd favourite (Olcan) clearly bounced
One or two others drifted badly
Another fancied horse flopped
She capitalised on her rivals flaws

JOSHUA R should go close
Looks a big powerful type 
Went off too quickly on debut
Improved his rating every time he ran
I would have him favourite in this race

Selection

JOSHUA R 1/1

Win Bet





Doncaster 2.00

4/1 Wentworth Falls, 9/2 Ice Lord, The Great Heir
6/1 Admirality, 8/1 Muscika, Triggered, 12/1 Flying Pursuit
14/1 Citron Major, 16/1 Corinthia Knight, The Cruising Lord
20/1 Flavius Titus, Princess Power, 25/1 Athollblair Boy.
 
6f Handicap

The oldest two horses
And also the two shortest prices
ICE LORD is an 8yo
WENTWORTH FALLS is an 8yo

Looked at 6f handicaps
June and July on turf
That are in Class 2-3-4

Horses aged 8 or more
With 1 run this season are 1-67
ICE LORD shares this 1-67 profile
Not a safe enough profile for me

WENTWORTH FALLS has 2 recent runs
But he has to come from a 5f race
Similar races show
Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from 5f
Running within 14 days are 0-44
Going to oppose both these horses

Several have not done enough
THE CRUISING LORD one
ATHOLBLAIR BOY is another
FLYING PURSUIT is a 7yo first time out
Chances are he will need the run today
PRINCESS POWER is a 4yo filly
She was beaten too far last time out

THE GREAT HEIR is a 4yo
Similar horses coming from 7f races
With 1 run this year running within 2 weeks
Have a 0-11 record in similar races
Don't feel his profile is safe enough
CORINTHIAN KNIGHT is unorthodox
Not a match well beaten in a Listed race
CITRON MAJOR doesn't offer enough
FLAVIUS TITUS has 2 runs this year
Has not quite done enough in those
Given he also has a difficult draw too
MUSCIKE is an exposed 6yo with 38 runs
Possibly need anoher run to be safe enough 
TRIGGERED just about shortlistable


Selection

ADMIRALITY 5/1

Each Way  







Chepstow 5.00

13/8 Myboymax, 2/1 Shine That Light
4/1 Furlong Factor, 7/1 Honeydew
14/1 No Leci.

2yo Novice 5f

MYBOYMAX ran has raced once
That was over 2 furlongs further
He might won down two furlongs
But that is hardly a safe profile
 
His breeding stats also interest me
Horses sired by Myboycharlie
Running on turf over 5 furlongs
On Good to soft and faster ground
Have so far recorded a 0-62 record
MYBOYMAX the 63rd horse to try

Don't like many of these
Abnormal is improvement is possible
I can only shortlist 2 horses

FURLONG FACTOR
SHINE THAT LIGHT

SHINE THAT LIGHT is prefered
More positives in certain areas
But he has to give the sex allowance
There is a case for betting both horses

Selection

£7 Win Bet SHINE THAT LIGHT 9/4-5/2

£3 Win Bet FURLONG FACTOR 5/2

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