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Pontefract 1.25
Goodwood 1.45
Goodwood 2.45
Pontefract 2.55
Leopardstown 3.35
Goodwood 4.55
Wolverhampton 6.35
Wolverhampton 8.05

This time last week
We were in form and flying
Just gone off the boil now

Tend to react very quickly
After a couple of poor days
And do that by backing off

Sacrificing today's message
Having a blank no bet day  
Target the weekend cards


Still have plenty of time
To turn the week around
No chance of a bet



For my best bet


Wanted an each way double
But a late non runner spoils it 

The second leg of that double
May still be the best bet today 
But would have been far safer
If placed in an each way double



Today's Best Bet
 
Wolverhampton 8.05

CRYSTAL PEGASUS 13/8-7/4

Win Bet



Small Stakes all message

Not a message I like much

Any my best bet is damaged




Thursday's Review 
  
Dipped a toe in the account water
Came back bloodied and bruised
Went for the easier of two options
MISS CHESS was given a bad ride
Never used any of her advantage
Being up front running on the rail
Strangely she chose to take a pull
In fairness despite a rubbish ride
Doubt that we were good enough
More poor choice than a bad ride
It didn't make any real difference
MT LEINSTER also finished beat 
Big gamble got the juices flowing
And he ran a big eye catching race
He was given a bit too much to do
But no regrets with that selection
Overall just didn't do much good
Managed only a couple of savers
Ran into a couple of shock results
But overall this was lacking quality

  

PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Pontefract 1.25

3/1 Kindly, 9/2 Grace And Virtue, 7/1 Kupa River
8/1 Iva Reflection, Swift Approval, 9/1 Six Strings
10/1 War Whisper, 14/1 Mr Orange,  14/1 Musharrif
16/1 Lofty,  25/1 The Armed Man 33/1 Firmdecisions.

6f Handicap

Pontefract has 30 similar races
Run during July and August
The 20 winners
Had 3 things in common

All were drawn 10 or less
All raced within 8 weeks
They all had 2 + recent runs

SWIFT APPROVAL is drawn wide in 15
That will surely detract from his chance
THE ARMED MAN is badly drawn
GRACE AND FAVOUR a badly drawn 3yo

Several of these are underraced
MUSHARRIF just 1 run in months
SIX STRINGS is absent too long
LOFTY isn't running that well
FIRMDECISIONS is older than ideal

IVA REFLECTION a 3yo male from 6f
The only male 3 year olds winning
Either came in smaller fields
Or when much lighter raced
Male 3 year olds
Over 9 career runs
Coming from 5f races
Running in fields of 10 +
Have a 0-50 record in them 
IVA REFLECTION fails this angle 

MR ORANGE has a chance
He is probably shortlistable
But as a 7yo with just 2 runs this year
Well beaten last time not risking him
When I have three others shortlisted
Who have more recent races

Shortlist
 
KINDLY
KUPA RIVER
WAR WHISPER

KINDLY Won last time
She is now a mare with topweight
Who has never won in a field this big

Non runners have helped though

WAR WHISPER looks a positive
Not worried 7yo coming from a 5f race
Because he has a good recent race
More than happy this 6f suits him

KUPA RIVER is a positive
But has never ran 6f on fast before

Selection

£4 Each Way WAR WHISPER 10/1

£2 Win Bet KUPA RIVER 8/1







Goodwood 1.45

7/4 One Master, 11/2 Breathtaking Look
7/1 Althiqa 9/1 Valeria Messalina, 12/1 Wasmya
12/1 Under The Stars 14/1 Agincourt
14/1 Invitational, 16/1 Anna Nerium, 20/1 Boomer
20/1 Shadn, 40/1 Graceful Magic.
 
Oak Tree Stakes

7f Group race for Fillies

Official Ratings show
ONE MASTER is 5lbs clear
She is a 6yo with 18 runs though

Last years winner had 17 races
More runs than any past winner
She was also 2 years younger
ONE MASTER is quite exposed
No 6 year old has won this race
Much as only 8 of them have tried
  
The Draw is a factor 
VALERIE MESSALINA is drawn 12 
Goodwood 7f races
Under 4 career starts
Since 2013
Horses drawn 10 or more are 3-110
Horses aged under 5
Drawn 10 or higher are 1-81
Drawn 12 or higher are 0-16
With 4 runs she looked risky

AGINCOURT ran 5 days ago
Beaten too far to like her here
BOOMER hasn't done enough
SHADN is short of fitness
ANNA NERIUM is absent too long
More exposed than all past winners
INVERTATIONAL needs improvement

BREATHTAKING LOOK is a 5yo
She has some pretty good figures
Not keen that she comes from 6f
Go back 22 years in this race
Only 3 winners came from 6f
They were all younger than her
They were all very lightly raced

UNDER THE STARS has a chance
Bit exposed for a 3yo down in trip
But a profile close to the 2013 winner

WASMYA can not be ruled out

ALTHIQA has scope
See her as one of the positives
 
Selection

ALTHIQA 6/1-13/2

Each Way






Goodwood 2.45

9/2 Prompting, 11/2 Montatham, 13/2 Sir Busker
8/1 Cliffs Of Capri, 9/1 Cardsharp, 10/1 Vale Of Kent
14/1 Almufti, 14/1 Bless Him, 14/1 Zwayyan, 16/1 Afaak
16/1 Baltic Baron, 16/1 Fox Premier, 16/1 Urban Icon
20/1 Willie John, 25/1 Blown By Wind.

Golden Mile 

High Class Handicap (8f)

The draw could be in play
With some fancied high draws

Every Goodwood 8f race
Since the renumbering in 2011
Show horses drawn 13 or more
Have a 1-108 record since then

MONTATHAM has drawn 15 of 15
They can not have wanted that
BLOWN BY WIND badly drawn in 14
BALTIC BARON hard to like drawn 14

The winners with recent runs
Finished 1st or 2nd last time
VALE OF KENT was well beaten
BLESS HIM the same problem
AFAAK beaten too far last time

VALE OF KENT 2nd last year
Takes the same route this year
But when rated 100 + in handicaps
He has a 0-11 record of those marks
And has to face a mark of 108 today

WILLIE JOHN is a 5yo
He has raced once in 10 months
Well beaten and 6 weeks absence
He just looks underraced to me
FOX PREMIER has the same problem
All past winners had more recent runs
ZWAYYAN has raced once this year
Does not have the best of draws in 12

CARDSHARP has never won at 8f
Unplaced in all 5 attempts at a mile
May pop up but an element of doubt

PROMPTING on a hat trick
Comes here with some momentum
But he is going up 2 grades in class
And ever past winner was rated 94 +
PROMPTING is only rated 89

CLIFFS OF CAPRI ran 6 days ago
Excellent 4th in a high class handicap
Exposed and up in distance here
Not sure if he has the 8f figures
But his fitness gets him shortlisted

SIR BUSKER is a 4yo with 17 runs
If you look at Racing Post Ratings
He has ran 3 career bests in a row
Has to be shortlisted now peaking 

ALMUFTI has a chance
But he is rated lower than past winners
Also goes up in class for this race
Horses from Class 3 races are 0-30
Quite exposed for a 4yo as well
But comes from a good trial race

URBAN ICON has topweight
If he stays he has a good chance 
But his 8f numbers before today
Suggest more likely to be placed
But down in class may well help
Don't think he got home last time
This is a much easier mile to get

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet SIR BUSKER 6/1

£2.50 Each Way URBAN ICON  12/1-14/1





Pontefract 2.55

5/2 Frankenstella, 5/1 Lady Shanawell, Single
11/2 Blue Beirut, 6/1 Lanzealot, 8/1 Maison D'Or
12/1 Boulevard Beauty, 14/1 Sincerely Resdev
25/1 Chenille, Diaboleo.

Handicap 2m 1f

This is a very long way
For 3 year olds against older horses

The only ones that won similar races
Had at least 5 career starts
Had at least 2 runs that season
All ran within the last 4 weeks

FRANKENSTELLA a 3yo filly
Only has 3 career starts here
Could not risk her as favourite
LANZEALOT has 4 runs now
Statistics suggest you want 5
CHENILLE has the same problem
SINCERELY RESDEV is off too long
MAISON D'OR with 1 run in 7 months
Just looks underraced over this far

LADY SHANAWELL is a 4yo filly
She is stepping up 5f in distance
Have to question her stamina here
If you look at her sire Lord Shanakill
He has never had a winner past 13f
All 18 that tried lost and this is 17f
DIABOLEO has topweight of 10st
May pop up but his last race poor

SINGLE is a 3yo
She is the right kind of 3yo
But her last run was quite poor
She looked on the small side

That said once beaten
She was eased considerably
And was far better than her final position

BOULEVARD BEAUTY beat her last time
But she ran in snatches and looked weak
I think she is too big around 25/1
But bottomweight and lower numbers

BLUE BEIRUT is a positive
Ticks a lot of important boxes
But he has to prove his stamina
His sires had a 2m winner on sand
None on turf have won beyond 14f

SINGLE looks the one

Forgive him last time out
Which I admit isn't easy to do
His previous figures before that
Are far better than any of these 

Going to split stake this

Selection

£7 Win Bet SINGLE 4/1-9/2

£2 Win Bet BLUE BEIRUT 4/1-9/2

£1 Win Bet BOULEVARD BEAUTY 22/1





Leopardstown 3.35

100/30 Timourid, 7/2 Eaglemont, 4/1 Phoenix Cowboy
9/2 Alatar, Shoshone Warrior, 12/1 Gaelforce West
20/1 Mona's Star, 25/1 Big Island, 33/1 Custers Mistake
50/1 Master Cornwall, Old Town Road, 66/1 Baltinglass Hill
66/1 Happy Lad.

12f Maiden

Should be a lot of deadwood
GAELFORCE WEST is rejected
Hard to trust his stamina over 12f
Sired by Camacho with just 1 run
SHOSHONE WARRIOR is rejected
No negative but a 300 day absence
Likely to have had a setback

There are a group of 3-4
Who winning would be no surprise

ALATAR I liked on some angles
As he had ground excuses
For both of his previous two runs
But Stall 12 has put me off here

Leopardstown races
Run over 1m 3f and more
Since 2008
With under 14 runners
Horses with under 7 runs
Drawn 10 or higher are 0-45
ALATAR fails this draw statistic
TIMOURID drawn 10 just fails that

Decided to play it this way

Selection

PHOENIX COWBOY 100/30 -7/2 - 4/1

Each Way




Goodwood 4.55

7/2 Sarsaparilla, 4/1 Enoughisgoodenough
4/1 Ventura Diamond, 6/1 Beautiful News, 7/1 Rhythm
9/1 Seaclusion, 10/1 First Lott, 12/1 Meu Amor
16/1 Illykato, 25/1 Emulate Rose, 33/1 Ambarella.

2yo Fillies Maiden (6f)

11 runners
4 experienced
7 unraced

SARSAPARILLA has 4 runs
Racing Post ratings 65 66 71 79 
Will that be good enough ? 
Against 7 unraced horses
Not sure but possibly will

Unraced horses 4-80 in this
Can not be seen as negatives
Having won 2 of the last 3 renewals

Maybe the better question
SARSAPARILLA with his 4 runs
Can she be out of the frame here ?

That may be the way to do
There are doubts about some

ENOUGHISGOODENOUGH
ILLYKATO

Both fillies sired by Dark Angel

Dark Angel 
Unraced 2 year old fillies
Running on turf over 6f or more
Have a very weak 2-161 record
Those in fields of 8 or more
Have a 0-133 record in them

ENOUGHISGOODENOUGH fails this
ILLYKATO also has this problem
And is an unlikely winner drawn 11

Some of these may not get home
RHYTHM is really bred for speed
And stall 10 would not be a plum draw 
SECLUSION unraced from Kevin Ryan 
Every chance he has left her short
BEAUTIFUL NEWS is unraced
Top stable but not strong in market

VENTURA DIAMOND ran over 5f
She has to prove stamina over 6f
She is one of the main dangers
MEU AMOR unraced and fancied
Would be another not ruled out

SARSAPARILLA 
Should have enough to place
Could easily have enough to win

Selection

SARSAPARILLA 3/1-11/4

Each Way





Wolverhampton 6.35

5/4 Fresh Snow, 2/1 Elmetto, 6/1 Smart Connection
10/1 Khayyaal, 16/1 Burning Sun, Kebek Khan
25/1 Happy Times, 33/1 Ayyaamy, 66/1 Madames Girl
66/1 Murat Asset, Scarborough Castle, 100/1 Num Num.

7f Maiden

Felt there were several sub plots

Regularly in these races
Certain horses with two runs
Like to have a third quiet run
If it suits them to be handicapped

KHAYYAAL down in distance
Looks a good candidate for this
KEBEL KHAN may be doing this
He could end up a sprint handicapper

BURNING SUN unraced is rejected
When drawn 10 and by Slade Power

SMART CONNECTION is unraced
May pop up but he is a 3yo Gelding 

ELMETTO a filly first time this year
Looks a threat but I prefer the favourite

FRESH SNOW ran once 20 days ago
Did well no surprise she didn't win it
Sired by Dark Angel over that far
When she was only an unraced filly
We can probably upgrade that run

ELMETTO is a non runner

FRESH SNOW my choice 
But the non runner kills the price

Selection

FRESH SNOW 4/6 

Win Bet




Wolverhampton 8.05

11/8 Crystal Pegasus, 7/4 Brilliant Light
6/1 Raased, 9/1 Yorktown, 14/1 Well Planted
20/1 Byron Hill, 25/1 Merry Yarn, 33/1 Daafy
100/1 Relativity, 150/1 Gms Princess.

12f Novice

This could be a match

Racing Post ratings

Crystal Pegasus 75 82 65 93 90
Brilliant Light 81 

CRYSTAL PEGASUS has 5 runs
He sets the clear standard so far
Some will see him as vulnerable
Having failed to win in all 5 races

That's a legitimate concern
Personally I like his experience
And he has had some excuses
 
He is slightly weak in the market
If there is any flaw in his profile
It is probably being drawn 12 here 
Take last time out at Pontefract
He failed a powerful draw statistic
At Haydock probably needed a run
Both runs 90 + Racing Post Ratings

I think he will win
This 12f could be the making of him
But he looks a possible bet
For last leg of an each way double 

Selection

CRYSTAL PEGASUS 13/8-7/4

Win Bet

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