4 Previews 
0 Account Bet   
1 Highlighted Bet 
 
  

Highlighted Bet 

 
Musselburgh 12.40

£7.00 Win SIDI ISMAEL 4/1

£3.00 Win CREMANT 5/2







Today's Message 


Short message today
Energy levels are low 
Decided late to do one

Kempton has tiny fields
Not much I can do there
Just covered 4 previews
Not fit for purpose today



4 Previews

Musselburgh 11.35
Musselburgh 12.40
Musselburgh 1.50
Chelmsford 4.45

I hate my first preview
Too much value in that

Like the Chelmsford race
But that is a short price


Going with 1 bet

Musselburgh 12.40

£7.00 Win SIDI ISMAEL 4/1

£3.00 Win CREMANT 5/2


An alternative staking option
SIDI ISMAEL each way at 4/1
Maybe the safer choice here
But going with the split stake





Sunday's Review  
 
Highlighted bet was a winner
Decent finish to the message
That finished W L P W L L P W
CRITICAL THINKING a win bet
Might have raised an eyebrow
Because it was not each way
Jockey gave it a superb ride
Went all week without any bets
Then both weekend bets won
So pleased with the end result
 
 
  
 
 
 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Musselburgh 11.35

9/4 Headscarf Lil, 11/4 Gemologist, 7/2 Smart Lass
9/2 Luck Of Clover, 9/1 Lizzie Loch, 20/1 Celtic Sall
 33/1 Stevie Smith, Sweet Flora.

Mares Novice Hurdle

My best chance in this race
Every dog has his or her day

GEMOLOGIST

She has a 0-30 record

She is 0-16 over hurdles

Her Hurdle Racing Post Ratings
Are average but also consistent
She runs to a rating around 102-104

Can that be good enough ?
Shouldn't be really but in this race
With 8 runners and some no hopers
It could be her day to get that win

HEADSCARF LIL has no hurdling form
LIZZIE LOCH fell in her only hurdle 
LUCKY CLOVER well beaten in hers
SMART LASS just pulled up on the flat 

You could easily make the case
With experience and her fitness
She should at least get placed 

You have very little idea
Of the self loathing I'm going through
For me to spit this vile bet out to you

Selection

GEMOLOGIST 5/2

Each Way






Musselburgh 12.40

3/1 Universal Folly, 9/2 Cremant, 5/1 Sidi Ismael
6/1 Celtic Flames, 9/1 Iolani, 14/1 Dancing Doug
14/1 Fourth Of July, 14/1 Pammi, 14/1 The Steward
16/1 Off The Beat, 20/1 The Road Home
25/1 Lord Condi, 33/1 Red Reminder.
 
Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

The Racing Post take the view
UNIVERSAL FOLLY is the improver
And can progress past exposed horses
He has raced only 4 times before
Beaten in a maiden hurdle last time
Only 2 previous hurdle runs
This may not be a track for his sort

Musselburgh Handicap Hurdles
October to December
Any distance
Any class
Horses with under 5 runs do win
But only those that won last time  
Those that did not were 0-20

Looking at every track
Similar races in November
Run over 2m 3f 2m 4f 2m 5f
Horses from 2m hurdle races
Either maiden or novice races
With under 5 career starts
Running this year were just 1-25
That winner had a 7 day break
UNIVERSAL FOLLY might win
But feel his profile is a bit too soft

SIDI ISMAEL has two decent runs
Looks like he is gradually improving
Been unlucky not to win up to now
Bumped into an improver last time
Big gap back to the 3rd horse there
CREMANT is also interesting
Unexposed last time out winner

Could play this many ways

CREMANT 100/30 each way an option
Would not have a big problem with that 
SIDI ISMAEL 9/2 each way also works
Feel he has every chance to go close

Slightly riskier option
Would be this split stake bet


Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SIDI ISMAEL 4/1-9/2 

£3.00 Win Bet CREMANT 5/2






Musselburgh 1.50

4/1 Raymond, 11/2 Vino's Choice, 13/2 Enlighten
15/2 Dora De Janeiro, 9/1 Dubai Days, 11/1 Dream Machine
11/1  Zamarkhan, 12/1 Je Suis Charlie, Three Castles
14/1 Two Blondes, 16/1 Magnum, Oakmont, Sarvi
25/1 For Three.

2m Handicap Hurdle

Not a race I'd normally do
But been dragged into it
Because of this statistic

October and November
Handicap Hurdles since 2009
Run over 2m 3f and shorter
Any class of race 
Horses aged 8 or more
Running within 5 months
Coming from a Chase
Have a 0-176 record

VINO'S CHOICE has this problem
Can not bet here with a 0-176 stat
Some like him win in December
So open minded but not for me

Some of the topweights unsafe
JE SUIS CHARLIE looks wrong
With just 1 bad flat race in 2 years
THREE CASTLES is only a 4yo
Concedes weight to his elders
FOR THREE hammered last time

DUBAI DAYS is inexperienced
Beaten 39 lengths in a maiden hurdle
Hardly makes him appealing here
OAKMONT has similar issues

DORA DE JANEIRO is a 7yo mare
Only had 4 lifetime races before
Only had 3 hurdle races before

TWO BLONDES is a flat horse
Mainly effective over 7f and 8f
Considering his pedigree
Including Namid as the dam's sire
Stamina will always be his problem
May end up nicking a hurdle race
But his problem will be his stamina
SARVI is running low figures

ZAMARKHAM has a chance
But rated 92 there are class issues
This is a better race than he is used to

Staying with an inform horse

RAYMOND is on a hat trick

We saved on him last time out
He should find this race easier

Selection

£9 Win Bet RAYMOND 5/2-11/4

£1 Win Bet ENLIGHTEN 9/1






Chelmsford 4.45

5/4 Orientalism, 2/1 Trawlerman 7/2 Daramethos
13/2 Mickydee 14/1 Bosphorus, Cosmic George
14/1 Opening Scene, 16/1 Moselle Valley
40/1 Silver Shade.

2yo Maiden 10f

Some tasty unraced horses
Make it hard to be confident

But the experienced horse
Just gets the decision here

ORIENTALISM has 1 run

Racing Post Rating of 77
That figure is fair enough 
When you consider his debut

He was drawn 14 at Nottingham

Since 2007
Nottingham 8f races
Horses with under 2 runs
Drawn in stall 14 or higher
Have a miserable 0-76 record
Don't want to be drawn high there

That 0-76 record
Is with under 2 career starts
He was having his debut there
So feel we can upgrade that run 

Other circumstantial evidence

He cost 230,000 Euros
He was slowly away on debut
He had the widest passage too
He was made favourite as well
Only an experienced horse beat him
I think he has a lot of positives

John Gosden runs 3
All unraced all will be dangerous
TRAWLERMAN smells like the danger
But my positives feel sensible here
ORIENTALISM may be able to beat him

Selection
 
ORIENTALISM 1/1- 11/10

Win Bet





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES   



Target race

Saturday November 28th

Newbury 3.00

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase
 
7/1 The Conditional 7/1  Aye Right 9/1 Black Op
10/1 Copperhead 10/1 Vinndication 10/1 Two For Gold
10/1 Kildisart 12/1 Sam Brown 14/1 Cloth Cap 
16/1 Secret Investor 20/1 Potterman 25/1 Beware The Bear
25/1 Spiritofthegames 25/1 Yala Enki 25/1 Danny Whizzbang
25/1 Siruh du Lac 33/1 Regal Encore 33/1 Truckers Lodge
33/1 Ardlethen 33/1 Ballyoptic 40/1 Lamanver Pippin
40/1 La Bague Au Roi 50/1 Mister Malarky 50/1 Benatar
66/1 The Hollow Ginge 66/1 Coo Star Sivola


This is the race of the week
Even if it is a shadow of the race
That it used to be in recent years


Pertinent issues


The ground softening

Where are the 6 year olds ? 
Only 1 horse that age is entered
And he Pulled up last time out
Will that help the older horses ?

With the race badly in decline
Do we treat this like a Hennessy
Or just an ordinary Graded chase ?

Had a good early poke around
Each Horse has it's own issues
Here are just some of those


7/1 The Conditional - Fails a very big angle

7/1 Aye Righ - Preparation and trainer concerns

9/1 Black Op - Likely stamina problems

10/1 Vinndication - Weight is his challenge

10/1 Copperhead - Can we forgive last time ?

10/1 Kildisart- Like profile but not trainer or sire

10/1 Two For Gold - Fails 2 wishy washy angles
 
12/1 Sam Brown - Like him but short in size ?

14/1 Cloth Cap - Ratings suggest lacks class ?

16/1 Secret Investor - Weight and ground issues

 20/1 Potterman - Summer Jumping prep ?

 Want to get this race right

Some way off a selection right now

But the above is just a snapshot

Of how far I have got at this stage







PDC World Darts


Michael Van Gerwin 
 
Now in the 20% club 

He is not an official bet yet
Not even sure he should be 

The stake I liked the best
One I mentioned Sunday 

MVG

£4 Each Way 3/1 (1/2 odds) 
£2 Win Bet 3/1

Looked very clever to me
I was Surprised he was 3/1

He is not a popular player
I presumed with no crowd
He may well find it easier
Without the hateful chants

Then a member mailed me
Gave me pause for thought

Stated the reason he was 3/1
Is because of no spectators
His opinion did make sense

Makes it a level playing field
Makes it easier for his rivals

There are plenty of players
Scoring heavily in practice
But just do not perform well
Under the glare of the lights  
Given the crowd pressure  

Take away those crowds
They face far less pressure
M. Van Gerwins opposition
Have an improved chance

Now I get it !!






Staking Realism


An excellent example of this
The Michael Van Gerwin bet


£4 Each Way 3/1 (1/2 Odds)

£2 Win Bet 3/1

 
More concerning than the result
Has to be how we get the bet on


No Betting shops are open

You can have a win bet on Betfair
But there is no each way market

There are about 15 bookmakers
Who might quote you some prices

Some of those bookmakers
May have already restricted you

Others might be the lowest price

Some firms are just so obscure
Ones we have rarely heard of
And never had a bet with before 
And don't know if we can trust

If you do eventually get a winner
We have to jump hoops to be paid
The "know your customer" rules
Have to scan your identification
Upload it to their headquarters
All that annoying hassle it brings

So how realistic are these bets

If Van Gerwin makes the final
The message on the day might say
We can not lose whatever happens
All the "No Damage Done" cliches 

But most people in the service
And I include myself in that too

Simply can not be bothered 
To get into a battle over bets
May just have a win bet instead

The record may show he places
The reality though is so different
Many will have a win bet instead
Will lose unless he wins outright

Ever more conscious of this issue

The complete disassociation
From the advised bets given

And the bets people are allowed
Or the bets people want to get on

That is why some of my bets
Might need a complete rethink 
Need to start being more realistic

It often crosses my mind
Our sport is an extinction event
And maybe in the next few years
We may not be betting normally
We may even not be betting at all

The short term solution may be
At the end of every preview done

I give the official selection out
Just as I have done for years

But also give an alternative strategy

The bet I would have personally
That may not match the official bet
That may be more exchange based

There are bets in the previews
That I personally don't bother with
I am too lazy to fight the restrictions
What few accounts that I have left
I don't want to risk with sneaky bets

So I may start changing previews
To accommodate other staking options
That are more realistic and available

The official selection will be final
But we might need this alternative

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