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Today's Message 
 
Appreciate I'm overdue a bet
Don't get stressed about this
My best bet today looks good
But there are logistical issues
 
Todays cards are very bland
Never looked appealing at all

Its not a significant message
Always felt inconsequential 
That before any non runners
And there are plenty of them



Friday Saturday Sunday 

Are more intense messages
No doubt will be staked bets 


 
6 Previews

Newmarket 2.25
Pontefract 2.40
Limerick 2.45
Pontefract 3.10
Newmarket 3.35
Pontefract 3.45


Limerick 2.45 

EMIYN 11/4 

One of my better options
Possible each way bet 9/2
But 2 non runners kills this
The favourite is the danger
But decided to leave it now



Today's Best Bet

 
Pontefract 3.45

EY UP ITS MICK 4/1-9/2

Each Way



The problem in this race

Originally we had 10 runners
Which has now reduced to 8

If there is another non runner
Then the each way gets spoilt
And I would then switch stakes

£8 Win Bet EY UP ITS MICK 4/1

£2 Saver Bet HART STOPPER 4/1

The race is hours away now
Don't hold up too much hope
That we will end up with all 8

It causes a staking headache 
And why I have not staked it

Whatever stake we use
This will be my best bet today
Hopefully this will be that bet


Pontefract 3.45

EY UP ITS MICK 4/1-9/2

Each Way





Wednesday's Review 
  
Seven race message yesterday
First 3 previews finished L P P
The first race saver so unlucky
Clear traded at 1.01 in running
But wandered about got caught
The next two previews placed
Pleased with both their efforts
ALMAFI DOUG won very nicely
Pleased with work done in this 
HARRYS RIDGE was a setback  
Quite obvious what happened
The rain changed the draw bias
He went from best to worst draw
Ran very well but that killed him
Kerry National was the big one 
I don't like staking similar bets
Complicated stakes on 3 horses
Different place terms available
Most firms offered us 1-2-3-4-5
ASK NICE finished in 5th place
If you got that you made money
But if you got 4 places you lost
Because it wasn't a staked bet
It doesn't matter quite as much
But did we lose or break level 
You could argue we did both
ACES HIGH ran a superb race
He was 25/1 traded low at 15/8 
He was going ominously well 
Coming round that last bend
Looked the winner for a while
Didn't get home in the ground
Freewheelin Dylan performed
Raced far better than his price
Given prices not at all unhappy
Feel it was a creditable effort
And although some made money
Mentally I do see that as a loser





PROFILES & PREVIEWS 



Newmarket 2.25

7/2 Betsey Trotter, 9/2 Gale Force Maya
9/2 Quickstep Lady, 11/2 Flippa The Strippa
7/1 Lady Of Aran, 10/1 Caspian Queen
10/1 Portugueseprincess, 12/1 Auchterarder.

6f Fillies Handicap

This is a Class 2 race

There are 67 of these races
Run during September + October

When you consider
That horses aged 3 and 4
Have won 62 of the 67 races
The assumption must be made
You don't want an older horse
BETSEY TROTTER is a 5 year old
Good form and not badly treated
But has just won in 2 grades lower 
Don't want a 5yo going up in class
LADY OR ARAN is also a 5 year old
Not enough positives for his age
AUCHTERARDER looks unsafe
Racing just once since February

QUICKSTEP LADY is up in grade
Having her first run in a handicap
Horses aged 3
Coming from a Non Handicap
Return a 0-18 record in these races
She may win but not like any winners

FLIPPA THE STRIPPA is a 3yo
Statistically she isn't quite there
Having raced 3 times in 11 months
Not a negative but wanted 1 more run

Shortlist

CASPIAN QUEEN is a 3yo
Her 41 day absence is acceptable
I matched two winners to her

GALE FORCE MAYA is a 4yo

PORTUGUESEPRINCESS a 3yo
Up in class but winners like her

Selection

£4 Win Bet PORTUGUESEPRINCESS 9/1
 
£4 Win Bet CASPIAN QUEEN 8/1

£2 Win Bet GALE FORCE MAYA 4/1





Pontefract 2.40

11/10 Dark Jedi,13/2 Amazing Red
7/1 Frankel's Storm, Not So Sleepy
10/1 West End Girl.

12f Handicap

Two stand out here

DARK JEDI 6/4 
FLOATING ARTIST 7/2

Not keen on the others
NOT SO SLEEPY an 8yo with a long break
WEST END GIRL a struggling 3yo filly
FRANKEL'S STORM another 3yo filly
He is short of runs and form this season
AMAZING RED a 7yo who rarely pops up 

FLOATING ARTIST is a non runner
 
DARK JEDI now the only option

Creditable run at Haydock last time
Might depend on how he recovers 


Selection

DARK JEDI 11/10

Win Bet





Limerick 2.45

6/4 Charlie Bassett, 100/30 Emiyn
9/2 Party Season 8/1 Tashim
25/1 Motbeq, 33/1 Summer Pearl
150/1 Just Waterville.

8f Maiden

CHARLIE BASSET down in trip
Likes his early season figures
Seemed to be improving well
Then he switched to hurdles
Last time back on the flat
Where I made him a negative
Coming from a hurdle race
And having a bad draw too
He has a solid chance here

But he is a gelding
EMIYN is a colt and like him
Has plenty of experience too

Running both profiles
EMIYN'S was a little better
He had excuses last time out
He and 2 other fancied horses
Went off too quickly at Listowel
And were hunted down by closers
He did the best of the pace setters
He will be here to win his maiden

On Heavy ground
I would prefer some experience
PARY SEASON has raced once
He should improve from Aiden
But on this ground with one run
I would not have him first choice
TASHMIN is in the same boat

Selection

EMIYN 11/4 

Win Bet
 



Pontefract 3.10

7/4 Classic Lord, 7/2 Arthur's Realm
11/2 Branston Dancer, 7/1 Prison Break
10/1 Can Can Girl, 16/1 Arthur Norse
16/1 Golden Dove, Pride Of Nepal
20/1 Valley Of Flowers 33/1 Jazper
33/1 Otto Oyl, 100/1 Northern General.

2yo Novice (8f)

No surprise if we get a shock here
CLASSIC LORD sets the standard
He has the most experience as well
The Penalty is one of two problems
So to is his draw in stall 12

Pontefract 8f races
Any time of year
Since 2010
Horses with under 5 runs
Drawn in stall 11 or more 
Have a 0-36 record since then
CLASSIC LORD fails this angle
PRIDE OF NEPAL does as well

Pontefract have had 35 races
Over a mile for 2 year olds
34 of the 35 winners
Had previous experience

Going to leave the unraced
BRANSTON DANCER is out
GOLDEN DOVE also rejected

ARTHURS REALM has 1 run
That was only 15 days ago 
Starting 150/1 in that race
Trained by Ed Dunlop as well
Are factors putting me off him

PRISON BREAK has 1 race
Could pop up from Richard Fahey
But I wouldn't want to trust him

CAN CAN GIRL is a filly
She has now had a race 
Comes from a smart trainer
Who has a poor record over 7f +
With all his unraced 2 year olds 
So improvement can be expected
Racing Post Rating of 67 on debut
That gives her a lot to build on
Big sort looked promising on debut

Selection

CAN CAN GIRL 8/1-9/1

Each Way






Newmarket 3.35

5/4 Mildenberger, 15/8 Withhold
11/2 Ghostwatch, 9/1 Ranch Hand

2m Listed race

Out of the comfort zone here

MILDENBERGER is favourite
Taking him on with 10 days off

June to December
All races over 2 miles
In Listed or Group races
Horses absent over 82 days
Have a 0-26 record in then
Not a strong angle to be fair
But it does cover 7 months
MILDENBERGER fails this

Small tactical field is an issue
Taking nothing for granted here
But decided to split stake this 

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet GHOSTWATCHER 9/2

£3.50 Win Bet WITHHOLD 7/4-2/1




Pontefract 3.45

9/2 Lady Nectar, 5/1 Alminoor
5/1 Hart Stopper 6/1 Ey Up Its Mick
6/1 Mr Orange, 9/1 Cloudea
10/1 Magical Effect,  20/1 True Mason.

6f Handicap

ALMINOOR a lightly raced 3yo
With only 3 previous races
And just one run this season
He has a vulnerable profile
Looks ill-equipped for this

All past winners of this race
Had at least 5 career starts
They had at least 2 recent runs
They had a run within 6 weeks
CLOUDLEA only has 1 run this year
MAGICAL EFFECT a nasty absence

Fillies and 3 year olds struggle too
LADY NECTAR is both filly and 3yo
Not for me bottomweight 38 days off
TRUE MASON has plenty to prove
And has recently downgraded yards
 
Shortlisted
 
MR ORANGE loves it here
Can find no reason he can't win

HART STOPPER is a 6 year old
Was a bit concerned about him
Having had 2 runs in over 7 months
But I can match him to winners
Including one who won 2 weeks ago
With a similar profile and weight

EY UP ITS MICK has a chance
His 3 previous wins were in lower class
They came with far shorter breaks
He has never raced in a handicap
In this high a grade before (Class 4)
Having said all that I still like him
This is quite a soft class 4 handicap
He has just done a career best figure
When he was badly drawn at Redcar
And had over a month off the track

Selection

If 7 or fewer run

£8 Win Bet EY UP ITS MICK 4/1
£2 Win Bet HART STOPPER 4/1


If 8 horses run

EY UP ITS MICK 4/1

Each Way






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  

   

Cambridgeshire Update

Top Rank

Looks like he is out  
Didn't like his chance much

Declarations out shortly

Draw will also be released

The last 4 renewals of this
Suggest high numbers best

1-2-3-4-5 in 2019 drawn in stalls 29 15 32 28 20
1-2-3-4-5 in 2018 drawn in stalls 21 25 26 3 13
1-2-3-4-5 in 2017 drawn in stalls 29 22 13 10 33
1-2-3-4-5 in 2016 drawn in stalls 28 35 8 13 2 

I would be worried drawn low
But we have seen it all before
The Draw can make a mug of us







Tennis
 
French Open 
  
1/1 Rafa Nadal 3/1 Novak Djokovic 3/1 Dominic Thiem
25/1 S.Tsitsipas 25/1 D. Medvedev 25/1 Alex Zverev
40/1 Stan Wawrinka 40/1 A.Rublev 40/1 D.Shapovalov
40/1 Alex de Minaur
  
Starts Monday

The Draw

5pm Tonight

Tonight we will discover   
The segment of the draw
Dominic Thiem will be in

Djokovic should be seeded 1
He will then be in the top half
Nadal would then be seeded 2 
He will be in the bottom half

Thiem will have to beat both
Not clear the half of the draw
Dominic Thiem will end up in

My Hunch
He will be in the top half

The projected semi final
Djokovic v Dominic Thiem

If this happens this evening
Nadal will be then odds on

I don't like betting players
On the basis of good draws
Class is just more important 

Mats Wilander

Read his column yesterday
Former Grand Slam winner
He will know more than me 
He feels Nadal is vulnerable
 
His main arguments

This has been delayed
Now in Autumn not Spring
Conditions will be heavier
The Ball will spin much less
Floodlights will be used
He has not competed much
Compared to his main rivals

This seems to make sense   
Nadal would be my 3rd pick 
If I had to make a decision

Thiem may well beat Nadal
Djokovic would beat Nadal
Thiem v Djokovic is 50-50





Ladbrokes Trophy  (Part 3)
 
Newbury 

28th November
 
8/1 Topofthegame, 14/1 Champ, 16/1 Imperial Aura
16/1 Copperhead, 20/1 Allaho, 20/1 The Conditional
20/1 Black Op, 25/1 Easysland, 25/1 Minella Indo
25/1 Simply The Betts, 25/1 Danny Whizzbang
25/1 Milan Native,  25/1 Lord Du Mesnil
25/1 Master Tommytucker, 25/1 Sam Spinner
33/1 Vinndication, 33/1 Santini, 33/1 Real Steel
33/1 Ravenhill, 33/1 Chris's Dream, 33/1 Total Recall
33/1 Lostintranslation, 33/1 On The Blind Side
33/1 Sam Brown, 33/1 Dingo Dollar, 33/1 Discorama
33/1 Elegant Escape, 33/1 Slate House  33/1 Pym
33/1 Dashel Drasher, 33/1 De Rasher Counter
33/1 Django Django, 33/1 Hold The Note
33/1 Jerrysback, 33/1 Kapcorse, 33/1 Kildisart

Conclusions so far

8/1 Topofthegame - Negative if no prep run 
14/1 Champ - Doubtful runner - Needs prep run 

Today's Horse
 
COPPERHEAD (6YO)
 
Last seen in the RSA Chase
When falling at the last fence

Horses aged 6

Have won this 5 times since 1980

They won from these ratings
155 147 145 142 140
COPPERHEAD is rated 153

Native River won in 2016
When he as a 6yo rated 155
But he proved to be top class

Copperhead rated 153
Has a 6lbs higher official mark
Than other past 6yo winners

4 of the 5 winners aged 6
Had prep runs beforehand

If Copperhead does not
He will be a 6yo first time out
Running off a rating of 153

The only 6yo to win first time
State Of Play who won off 144
Copperhead is 9lbs higher 

Seasonal debutants
Rated 152 or more
Have a 1-31 record since 1997
Only Denman has done this

So if he does not have a prep run
He looks a very unlikely winner

If he does have a prep run
We can treat him more kindly
But doubt he will be 1st choice

Kalanisi is his sire
His runners over 3m 2f +
Are 0-6 in Listed / Graded races
 
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