7 Previews 
0 Account Bet 
1 Best Bet 


 
Staked Bet  


Aintree 11.45

TO BE SURE 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3


Goes down as 1-2-3
But you can get 4 places
Mainly on Betfair exchange
You would take that option
If he is 4th the account loses
But no reason you should





Today's Racing 
 
Ruthless schedule today
Big meetings dense fields

Breaking level feels a win
If we managed to do that
It will not be stats or skill
Will be mainly experience
With a large dollop of luck
 
Safe staking our best hope
Time will show if I did that

Tracks report softer ground
Non runners will be an issue

Should we have a bet today ?

Sunday is marginally easier

Thats definately an option

But going with 1 bet today

Runs early

Hopefully staked safely

If offered a break level bet
And a break level message
I would take that right now
 
 
Aintree 11.45

TO BE SURE 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3 



My biggest danger

My Bobby Dazzler

Don't fancy the rest


    


Preview Selections



Aintree 11.45
To Be Sure 4/1
Each Way

Sandown 12.40
£5.00 Win Bet Kissesforkatie 6/1
£5.00 Place Bet Shirocco's Dream 1/1

Navan 1.08
£2.50 Each Way Ballywilliam Boy 16/1-20/1
£5.00 Place Bet Burning Victory 10/11

Aintree 1.30
White Pepper 6/4
Win Bet

Wetherby 1.37
Sirwilliamwallace 4/1 
Each Way

Aintree  2.40
£5.00 Win Bet Chris's Dream 10/1-11/1
£2.00 Each Way Hill Sixteen 14/1-16/1
£1.00 Win Bet Mac Tottie 8/1-9/1

Sandown 3.35
£4.25 Each Way Elham Valley 8/1
£1.50 Win Bet Hudson De Grugy 7/1






Yesterday's Review   

Simply backed off yesterday 
No bets just match practice
Everything ran a decent race
Uallrightharry 20/1 was fifth
All firms offered us 1-2-3-4-5
Most will have broken level
Meshar returned stakes too
Basically got the race right 
Two runners dominating it
Rene Artoise ran well in 2nd
Each Way was the right plan
But the price so hard to get
Probably meant most didn't
The split stake at Newcastle
Unraced winner beat us there
Meant we had the 2nd and 3rd
Low stake non comital day 
Happy how they ran overall





PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Aintree 11.45
 
5/1 Landofsmiles, 6/1 Grangeclare Glory
7/1 Fairfield Ferrata 7/1 My Bobby Dazzler, 8/1 Dynali
8/1 Lalochezia 8/1 Return Fire, 8/1 To Be Sure
9/1 High Moon, 12/1 Known, 14/1 Enemenemynemo.

Novice Handicap Hurdle 3m

LANDOFSMILES is a 8yo

He is 2 years older than these
Exposed hardly an advantage
He fails the following statistic

July to December
3m + Novice Handicap hurdles
Horses aged 8 or more
Over 19 career starts
Absent over 22 days
Have a 0-53 record in them
LANDOFSMILES fails this

GRANGECLARE GLORY is a 6yo
May not be easy carrying topweight

June to December since 2009 
3m + Novice Handicap hurdles
Horses aged under 7
Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Have a 0-43 record in them

November and December
Novice Handicap hurdles
Run over 2m 6f and more
Show horses with under 4 runs
Absent over 30 days
Have a 0-40 record in them
LALOCHEZIA fails this statistic

FAIRFIELD FERRATA is unsafe
As a mare going up half a mile
ENEMENEMYNEMOW a 6yo
Looks like he needs another run
RETURN FIRE is a 5 year old
He has only had 3 career runs
First handicap could be too raw
HIGH MOON a similar problem

DYNALI does have momentum
Rated 97 will he have the class ?
Quite exposed for a 5 year old
That does put me off him a bit

KNOWN a seasonal debutant
Could win but not first choice
My angles say look elsewhere

MY BOBBY DAZZLER topweight
Could go well and fully respected

TO BE SURE interests me most
Won easily two runs ago over 3m
Only second last time out at 11/4
But the horse who beat him there
Had won before and has won since
Ran into a progressive rival there
There was a big gap to the third

Selection

TO BE SURE 4/1

Each Way





Sandown 12.40

3/1 Fable, 5/1 Shirocco's Dream, 13/2 Volkovka
8/1 Emmpressive Lady, Kissesforkatie, Whitehotchillifili
10/1 Mrs Barnes, 14/1 Barely Famous, Bourbon Beauty
16/1 Could Be Trouble, Shantung, 20/1 Ruby Yeats.

Mares' Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Looked at results of these races

November and December
Mares' Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 1f and more
Any class of race 

Horses with under 5 runs
Absent more than 82 days
Return a 0-45 record in them
FABLE has this problem
Big weight and first time out
Inexperience hurts her profile
MRS BARNES also fails this
BARELY FAMOUS does too
 
Similar races
Run over 2m 1f and more
At any time of the year
In fields of 9 or more
Show horses aged 4
Having just 1 run in 3 months
Have a 0-44 record in them
VOLKOVKA fails this statistic
Don't want a big weighted 4yo
With just 1 run in 266 days now

EMMPRESSIVE LADY is a 6yo
Statistically ok despite a break
Not going to trust her trainer 

Sue Gardner's horses
Absent more than 91 days
Have a poor 7-281 record
Strike rate of just 2.49%
All her runners since 2017
Who were absent 92 + days
Have a 0-83 record since then
So don't feel I can trust her
To have this mare fit enough
COULD BE TROUBLE may win
But pulled up in a chase last time
Makes her far too random to bet
SHANTUNG doesn't offer enough
BOURBON BEAUTY is similar
Beaten too far on seasonal debut

WHITEHOTCHILLIFILLI a 7yo
Not a negative but lots to prove
Long absence with topweight

SHIROCCO'S DREAM is a positive
But on the inexperienced side here

KISSESFORKATIE is a positive
Does this race come too soon ?
18 days after a 12 month break
 
Hard to judge
But leads me to split stake this
Rather than rely on one each way

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet KISSESFORKATIE 6/1

£5.00 Place Bet SHIROCCO'S DREAM 1/1





Navan 1.08

6/1 Burning Victory, 8/1 Duffle Coat, 8/1 Maze Runner
10/1 Sassy Yet Classy, 12/1 A Great View, Dallas Des Pictons
12/1 Damalisque, De Name Escapes Me, 14/1 Ballywilliam Boy
14/1 Coventry, 14/1The Big Dog, 16/1 Captain Kangaroo
16/1 Commander Of Fleet, 20/1 Barbary Master, Doctor Duffy
20/1 Folcano, Mars Harper, 25/1 The Jam Man, Wearapinkribbon
33/1 Ciao Bella, 40/1 Western Run, 50/1 Dunboyne
50/1 It Could Be You.

3m Handicap Hurdle

Not nearly enough time
To do a long preview in this

Against the 4 year olds
Do not score well enough
DUFFLE COAT is rejected
COVENTRY is also opposed
Taking on the older horses
Those aged 10 or more 
Too many younger options
Opposing those from chases
Those from maiden hurdles
Those with stamina doubts
Those hammered recently

BURNING VICTORY is a mare
Well backed Mullins runner
She makes the final shortlist
But she is too short for a win
I prefer her as the place saver 

MAZE RUNNER not ruled out
SASSY YET CLASSY a mare
Also has enough to respect 
DALLAS DES PICTONS an 8yo
Also has enough to shortlist

Hoping the place only bet
Will allow us a free hit elsewhere
Decided to play the race this way

Selection

£2.50 Each Way BALLYWILLIAM BOY 16/1-20/1

£5.00 Place Bet BURNING VICTORY 10/11




  

Aintree 1.30

13/8 White Pepper, 7/1 Sea Sessions 
7/1 Six Feet Apart, 15/2 Addosh
9/1 Malakahna, 12/1 Aliomaana 12/1 Calvados
16/1 Angels Landing, 28/1 Kalma, 


3yo Hurdle

Listed race for fillies

WHITE PEPPER sets the standard
She is 10lbs clear on R.Post Ratings
From a top stable most likely winner

The last 5 winners
All had 5 or more career runs
Inclined to stay with that trend

SIX FEET APART is progressive
But has only had 3 career starts
MALAKAHNA the same problem
ADDOSH carries a small penalty
But two non completions recently
Since he won causes concerns

WHITE PEPPER around 6/4
Should be at least the saver bet
Should not lose if she takes this
I don't see a horse for a win bet

Selection

WHITE PEPPER 6/4

Win Bet






Wetherby 1.37

2/1 Saint Palais, 3/1 Castle Robin, 6/1 Sirwilliamwallace
10/1 Admiral Barratry, Cobra De Mai, Minella Till Dawn
12/1 Rocky's Treasure, 14/1 Grange Ranger
16/1 Chef D'Oeuvre.

3m Handicap Chase

SAINT PALAIS is a 4 year old
Won on his chase debut in October
But this is later against better horses
Statistically nothing too significant
Handicaps over 2m 6f or more
Run November and December
Show 4 year olds with under 9 runs
Have an inconclusive 0-10 record
SAINT PALAIS has only has 6 races
Would rather go for an other option

Several well beaten last time out
Do not have enough momentum
CHEF D'OEUVRE is one of those
ROCKY'S TREAURE is another
GRAND RANGER well beaten last time
May need another run to get straight
 
COBRA DE MAI is well handicapped
Will like this easier grade smaller field
Pulled up in the Badger Beer Chase
Looked for similar profiles in vain
Not a negative but neither a positive
There are a couple of first time outers 
Neither appealing or ruled out either


Shortlist

CASTLE ROBIN is respected
See him as a saver in any win bet

SIRWILLIAMWALLACE preferred
Mainly because of his experience
His extra runs this year and price

Selection

SIRWILLIAMWALLACE 100/30

Each Way





Aintree  2.40 

6/1 Mac Tottie, 13/2 Snow Leopardess, 7/1 Mighty Thunder
9/1 Kimberlite Candy, 11/1 Chris's Dream, 12/1 Checkitout
12/1 Vieux Lion Rouge, 14/1 Le Breuil, 16/1 Hogan's Height
16/1 Ravenhill, 18/1 Achille, 20/1 Lord Du Mesnil
20/1 Snow Falcon, 20/1 Top Ville Ben, 20/1 Tout Est Permis
20/1  Via Dolorosa, 25/1 Didero Vallis,  25/1 Domaine De L'Isle
25/1 Hill Sixteen, 28/1 Cobolobo, 50/1 El Paso Wood
66/1 Abaya Du Mathan.
  
Becher Chase

Graded Handicap Chase (3m 2f)

Run over Grand National course
 
CHRIS'S DREAM is topweight

It crossed my mind last week
I could bet him first time out
In the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase
As he looked the class horse

He did not run but here he is 
Rated 162 facing a 0-153 race
The same arguments do apply

He is not statistically safe here

Seasonal debutants
With 10st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-23 record in them
 
Horses rated 143 or higher
Absent more than 37 days
Have a 0-28 record in this
CHRIS'S DREAM fails both angles
It makes choosing him far harder
But you just cannot discount him 

He has excuses for many races
Underraced in serious contests
From a high class stable if ready
I could easily see him taking this

Avoiding the following

LORD DU MESNIL first time out
As an 8 year old racing off 153
 
Older horses can and do win this
RAVENHILL one of those aged 11
But he did not do enough last time 
I wat at least some recent promise
The following horses all fail this

HOGAN HEIGHTS lost 34 lengths
Trying to recapture previous glories
He has a lot to prove after last time

MIGHTY THUNDER is an 8yo
Lost 34 lengths in the Charlie Hall
The last horse hammered in that
Before winning this was in 2000
When Young Kenny managed this
MIGHTY THUNDER was 66/1 there
Best form in 4m spring Nationals
Far from convinced he is ready yet
20 of the 21 winners since 1998
Were officially rated 148 or lower
MIGHTY THUNDER is rated 150

TOP VILLE BEN the same problem
Hammered at 33/1 in Charlie Hall
Rated higher than 20/21 winners
DOMAINE DE L'ISLE is opposed
Just beaten too far last time out
DIDERO VALLIS in the same boat

LE BREUIL has 1 run this year
Beaten too far there to interest me
He has finished 5th and 7th in this
Not naturally drawn to his chance
Because he's undersized at Aintree

EL PASO WOOD wrong type of 7yo
Looks too exposed and outclassed
ABAYA DU MATNAN is far too risky
COBOLOBO would not be 1st choice

TOUT EST PERMIS ran 13 days ago
Beaten 16 lengths is a little too far

This is an interesting statistic
The Becher Chase since 1997
Horses running within 16 days
Have a 0-70 record in the race
Many of these will have bounced
TOUT EST PERMIS fails this angle

VIEUX LION ROUGE is a 12yo
He managed to win this last year
He also won the race back in 2016
Now a year older a longer absence
Running off a 5lbs higher mark
Not for me because of his age

Horses like him rated 143 or more
Absent over 37 days 
Have a 0-28 record since 2007 
Some will like him despite his age
VIEUX LION ROUGE is not for me

KIMBERLITE CANDY is rated 150
His 238 day absence is a problem
For a horses rated as high as that
He was second in last years race
You can like him more on that basis
But he has raced just once since
Pulling up in the Grand National
Lots of doubt about his wellbeing
20 of the 21 winners since 1998
Were officially rated 148 or lower
KIMBERLITE CANDY is rated 150


Number of Chase runs

Past winners 
Had the following chase runs
23 20 13 7 16 19 18 36 13 25 17 20 4

SNOW FALCON has 24 chase runs
That's more than most past winners
He is also an 11yo absent 73 days
Horses that age can win with breaks
But no horse with 20 or more chases

Has won this absent over 41 days
SNOW FALCON would be the first
He has not won in over 2 years now
ACHILLE would also be the first
He is an 11yo with 20 Chase runs 
Facing a 259 day absence as well
HILL SIXTEEN has had a recent run
Did ok career getting back on track
Having lost his form 12 months ago
But is untested in this class of race
VIA DOLOROSA is very exposed
English debut in Grand Sefton Chase
Ran well in 4th starting a 40/1 chance
Do not see enough positives to bet

CHECKITOUT is a 7 year old
He is the youngest horse in the race
Horses aged 7 have  2-42 record
Both winners had under 9 chases
CHECKITOUT has had 9 up to now
Not ruled out and not a negative
But not convinced you want a 7yo
His age are just 1-35 since 2005

MAC TOTTIE won the Grand Sefton
That race was moved several weeks
So impossible to know what it means
But unexposed comes here in form
It does mean a career high mark here
My other problem is his breeding stats
Sires runners in Listed/Graded races
Run over 3m 1f and further 
When it was soft or heavy ground
Stands at a modest 1-38 to date
That was in a 10 runner Peter Marsh

SNOW LEOPARDESS is a 9yo mare
She won first time out this season
Unexposed and no shock if she won
She is also big strong chasing type
But there is a statistical question mark

Go back to 2007
Listed and Graded Chases
Any distance
Any time of year
Female horses
Aged 9 or more
Have a 0-48 record 
None have won since 1997
SNOW LEOPARDESS fails this
Some won in Ireland but none here
 
Past winners 
Had the following chase runs
23 20 13 7 16 19 18 36 13 25 17 20 4
SNOW LEOPARDESS only has 7 runs
She'd be the joint 2nd least experienced
  
Conclusion

CHRIS'S DREAM

Whilst failing several angles
Must be on the staking plan
He could if here to win do so
And a chance he outclasses these
But not one to fully commit to
So playing him in a splits stake
MAC TOTTIE is a win saver bet
HILL SIXTEEN is quite untested 
But has recent runs and  just10st
And we know is well handicapped

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet CHRIS'S DREAM 10/1-11/1

£2.00 Each Way HILL SIXTEEN 14/1-16/1

£1.00 Win Bet MAC TOTTIE 8/1-9/1






Sandown 3.35

7/2 Benson, 9/2 Hudson De Grugy, 9/2 Metier
7/1 Samarrive, 9/1 Elham Valley, Zambezi Fix
14/1 Miss Heritage, Natural History, 14/1Thibault
16/1 Heure De Gloire, Navajo Pass,
40/1 Elegant Escape.

Handicap Hurdle

Listed race over 2m

These races are rare

December has just 29

They show us
The following are too exposed

THIBAULT
MISS HERITAGE

They show us
4 year olds
With under 5 hurdle runs 
Have a 0-40 record in them
SAMARRIVE fails this angle
HEURE DE GLOIRE does too

Horses under 6
Absent over 98 days
Have a 0-27 record in them
METEIR fails this 0-27 angle
NAVAJO PASS also fails it
HEURE DE GLOIRE does too

BENSON won this last year
This season he drops down 5f
Not a safe enough profile today
ZAMBEZI FIX unsafe from fences
NATURAL HISTORY is unsafe
Having pulled up last time out

Shortlisting 2

£4.25 Each Way ELHAM VALLEY 8/1

£1.50 Win Bet HUDSON DE GRUGY 7/1 

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