10 Previews
1 Bet Today 




Today's Bet


Kelso 3.15

SOLO 13/2-6/1- 11/2

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4



There are 5 places available
With Skybet and Paddy Power
And on Betfairs exchange too
Makes sense to use Betfair
But goes down with 4 places





Sunday
 
Likely to be a later message
Have a lie in aiming for 11am  





Today's Message 


Lets hope that after yesterday
We have not peaked too early

Friday's best outsider  
Won easily and at 16/1  
Going to try to follow up

Southwell 8.30

ZAHIRAH 14/1

Each Way

Hell will probably freeze over
Before I can stake a bet like this
She is a bad horse in a bad race 
But nominating her best outsider




Target race
 
Newbury 1.50

£3.00 Each Way BORN SURVIVOR 12/1-14/1

£2.00 Each Way WINDSOR AVENUE 18/1-20/1

Two more outsiders here
Felt this was the smartest strategy
But I decided not to stake this bet



Burglars Thieves Vagabonds

As ever there are a few options
For anyone who like dirtier bets
These 3 short priced selections
Could all be combined together
Separate each way double bets
  
Kelso 12.25 - FELDSPAR 7/4-2/1

Navan 1.40 - LLMIG 11/8- 6/4

Doncaster 4.40 - BUZZ DE TURCOING 2/1



Did think about a short priced bet

Had Buzz De Turcoing been 5/2 +
May have put him up as a win bet




Looking for the main bet

Want a decent price selection

Which means a handicap bet





Today's Bet


Kelso 3.15

SOLO 13/2-6/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4


Paul Nicholls

Suggests he is not thrown in

"He is in the grip of the handicapper"

So are the rest of us

Feel he can take this race

And it may be part of a plan

Win this go for the County Hurdle

Collect the 100k bonus for doing it





Race Previews


Lingfield 11.45
Kelso 12.25
Newbury 12.40
Navan 1.40
Newbury 1.50
Navan 2.13
Newbury 2.30
Kelso 3.15
Doncaster 4.40
Southwell 8.30





Friday's Review
 
High class message yesterday
Happy to admit when they flop
But that was a very smart effort 
It finished up P L W W L W W P
The top of the message W P W
The strongest bet was a winner
Survived a photo and an inquiry
SUBLIMINAL still managed a win
Basically comes out a 5/2 winner
Felt we staked well all message
One or two were disappointing
But the winners were big prices
BARD OF BRITTANY won at 16/1
Backed down to 8/1 hacking up
The form books are overrated
Many of my statistics are as well
Momentum feels so undervalued
And I believe thats why he won it
MARTA BOY won as well at 11/1
He drifted it looked like a mistake
But he flew home to land the bet
Good staking made things better
But overall a very strong message

  




PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Lingfield 11.45

5/2 Glasvegas, 11/4 Dutugamunu, 4/1 Al Suil Eile
5/1 Visibility, 7/1 Born To Finish, 10/1 Luna Magic.

8f Handicap

Messy small field

The 2 Class horses
At the top of the weights

1) AL SUIL EILE
2) VISIBILITY

Are also the two horses
With the most recent runs

Runs within 39 days

3 Al Suil Eile
3 Visibility
1 Dutugamunu 
1 Glasvegas
1 Born To Finish
1 Luna Magic

Thats why I favour this pair
Do not feel my analysis is conclusive

DUTUGAMUNA does scare me
He could be more progressive
The horse he beat last time out
Came out and won just yesterday

But staying with my strategy
 AL SUIL EILE is my first choice

The saver was a toss up
Between Visibility and Dutugamuna

Selection

Small Stakes

£8.50 Win Bet  AL SUIL EILE 5/1-9/2 - 4/1

£1.50 Win Bet VISIBILITY 7/1-15/2






 
Kelso 12.25

2/1 Le Magnifique, 11/4 Magna Moralia
100/30 Feldspar, 5/1 Benito, 8/1 Caldwell
33/1 Bad Rabbit, Brodick, 100/1 Les's Legacy
100/1 Monash.
 
4yo Hurdle

Looks between 5 horses
Not all of these are safe
BENITO is one as he is unraced
Not for me against experience
CALDWELL is still a colt 
They underperform in these races
MAGNA MORALIA is a threat on form
He has had 14 career starts now
Combined with 106 days absence
The winners with absences
All had 12 or fewer career runs
Not ruled out but not an exact match
His sire is also 0-22 with hurdlers

February and March
Juvenile hurdles (2m)
Horses from Listed races
Running 3 to 5 weeks ago
Beaten over 10 lengths in them
Have a 4-13 record

LA MAGNIFIQUE has this profile
FELDSPAR has this profile too

Same stable
Same prep race last time
Feel they have the best chance

LA MAGNIFIQUE could easily win
Entitled to have needed last run
Stable jockey has chosen him
But he is less experienced
He has raced once in 121 days
FELDSPAR is battle hardened
Going to make him the choice

Selection

FELDSPAR 7/4- 2/1

Win Bet 






Newbury 12.40

3/1 Not A Role Model, 7/2 Aintree My Dream
6/1 Eaton Hill, 7/1 Neachells Bridge, 8/1 Equus Millar
10/1 Haul Away, 11/1 Mount Mews, 12/1 Highway One O One
14/1 Always Resolute, 25/1 Ruacana, 33/1 Champagne City.

Seniors Handicap Hurdle

Horses aged 8 and older
These races are quite rare

3 Past renewals

5 similar races elsewhere

Not too surprised
That all 5 winners of these races
Were the youngest aged 8  

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 0-31 record in them

All past winners
Had under 11 hurdle runs 
Horses with more were 0-28
 
All past winners
Ran within the last 79 days
 
If you stay with these angles

8 year old
Under 11 hurdle runs
Running within 79 days

HAUL AWAY is the only qualifier

Thats fine
Comes from a chase
As did last years winner of this

But he was hammered last time
Has raced once in 141 days

His other problem is 11st 9lbs
All 5 winners of these races
had 11st 5lbs or less weight

The sensible thing to do
Consider the 9 year olds too
Who also have under 11 runs
And beat the weight statistic

Best Profile in the 5 races

Male Horses aged 8-9
Under 11 hurdle runs
Running within 79 days
Carrying 11st 5lbs or less

Horses with this profile
Have a 5-11 record in them

NEACHELLS BRIDGE has this
He is also added to the shortlist


Selection
  
NEACHELLS BRIDGE 4/1-9/2

Each Way




Navan 1.40

5/2 Ilmig, 3/1 Barncroft, 6/1 Dreamsrmadeofthis
5/1 Palace Rock, 12/1 Na Caith Tobac, 14/1 Boothen Boy
14/1 Born To Rule, 20/1 Bergentown, Hisnameis Mrdevitt
25/1 Champagne Secret, Miss Adventurous, 33/1 Little Mixup
25/1 Nazine, 50/1 Cobb And Co, Hisdaywillcome, Speak Now
66/1 Clever Currency, Swift Sonnet, 100/1 Absolute One Right
10/1 Blue Gale Five.

4yo Maiden Hurdle 2m

Not many can win this

DREAMSRMADEOFTHIS is filly
Unraced and not safe enough
Similar races show
Unraced fillies are 3-55
But in fields of 11 or more
They have a 0-33 record

BORN TO RULE is unraced
BOOTHEN BOY is unraced
BERGENTOWN is unraced

Not really looking for that
BARNCROFT is also unraced

PALACE ROCK

Could be an each way option
But his profile is not too good

January to June
4yo Maiden hurdles
Unraced hurdlers
Coming from the flat
Running within 60 days
Under 6 career starts
Return a 0-71 record
PALACE ROCK fails this stat

Going with the solid option
Who has plenty of experience

Selection

LLMIG 11/8-6/4

Win Bet






Newbury 1.50
 
4/1 Grand Sancy, 11/2 Killer Clown, Umbrigado
7/1 Senior Citizen, 8/1 Pistol Whipped, The Big Bite
10/1 Another Crick, 12/1 Windsor Avenue, 16/1 Capeland
20/1 Barton Knoll, 20/1 Born Survivor, 20/1 Gala Ball
25/1 Gold Present, The Russian Doyen.
 
Greatwood Gold Cup

Handicap Chase 2m 4f

15 Past renewals

Past winners
Had the following official ratings
147 128 143 149 132 145 149 130
146 133 139 146 140 131 142
Horses rated 150 or more are 0-16 
 
CAPELAND is topweight rated 153
Higher rating than all past winners
Never won from this rating before 

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a modest 2-87 record

GALA BALL is 11 years old
Comes here pulling up last time

GOLD PRESENT is similar
He is 11 and pulled up last time
Raced only once since November
 
Recent winners of this
had the following runs that year
5 5 4 4 5 3 3 6 2 3 5 7 5 4
No horse has won with 1 run 
Most won with 3 or more races

PISTOL WHIPPED fails this angle
He has only raced once this year
Could come here on the bounce
And most winners had more runs
 
Recent winners of this
Had the following Chase runs
22 19 4 9 13 8 11 15 9 12 10

Horses winning last time out
Have a 0-32 record in this race

BARTON KNOLL won last time 
He has 99 days absence as well
All 15 winners ran within 72 days

Horses with over 5 chase runs
Coming from Class 3 or lower
Have a 0-22 record in this race
BARTON KNOLL also fails this

UMBRIGADO won last time
All 32 horses doing that failed
He has only had 3 chase runs

Recent winners of this
Had the following Chase runs
22 19 4 9 13 8 11 15 9 12 10
He'd be the least experienced
And unlike any past winner of it
He also steps up from a 2m race
The last to do that was in 2009

THE RUSSIAN DOYEN is an 8yo
Not keen he has downgraded yards
Chase form regressive recently

KILLER CROWN won last time
We know all 32 horses doing it lost
He is another short of experience
Just 4 chase runs bit it included
An early fall at fence 2 on debut
So he's really had just 3 chases
Never been above a Class 3 race

THE BIG BITE is an 8yo
Positives but there are worries
Most winners had more experience
He has raced only once since November
Only twice in over 12 months
Most winners were busier than him
And he comes from a 2m race
None have done that since 2009
Those aged 8 or more
Coming from 2m 1f or less
Have a 0-19 record in 15 renewals
There are better profiles here

ANOTHER CRICK is an 8yo
Raced only twice in 12 months
When going up 2 grades in class
Not safe and feels underraced
Never been above a Class 2 race
 
This in an interesting angle

January to June
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class
Run over 2m 3f and more

Horses under 9 years old
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a miserable 1-106 record
Those from Class 2 or shorter
Have a 0-70 record in them

The following horses fail this

THE BIG BITE
UMBRIGADO
THE RUSSIAN DOYEN 


GRAND SANCY has 119 days off
All 15 past winners of this
Ran within the last 70 days
That will not be easy to overcome 
He has no handicap experience
No chase experience in big fields
But his trainer is 9-29 in this race

January to Match
Graded Handicap Chases
Any distance
Horses under 8
Absent over 96 days
Have a 1-35 record in them
GRAND SANCY 36th to try
Not quite a negative 
But there are concerns here

Shortlist
  
SENIOR CITIZEN is an 8yo
Not too far off a decent profile 
His 91 days absence a problem
All 15 winners ran within 72 days
But 6 chase runs is acceptable
Most did have 8 or more though
Too inexperienced for Aintree
When 7th in the Grand Sefton
His figures suggest he can win
But this is hardest task yet

WINDSOR AVENUE is a 9yo
Not the best age but unexposed
And there are no 6 year olds
He does look quite well treated

BORN SURVIVOR is a 10yo
Exposed and not really the right type
But there are no 6 year olds this year
So older horses have better chances
And the 2017 winner was a 10yo like him
He has some serious chase figures
And if you ignore his Cheltenham form
A track he does not seem to relish
He starts to look far more consistent
 
Selection

£3.00 Each Way BORN SURVIVOR 12/1-14/1

£2.00 Each Way WINDSOR AVENUE 18/1-20/1






Navan 2.13

11/8 Manitopark AA, 100/30 Santa Rossa
4/1 Dreamingandhoping, 8/1 Cathmart Desjy
16/1 Bealnablath, Roisins Ciara, 20/1 Aspen Fior
20/1 Lady Heath, 33/1 De Lady In Red, Drumbaragh
3/1 Nurse Mairead, Lady Federici, 50/1 Present Storm
66/1 Ask Blossomfort, 66/1 Sumtinboutporter
100/1 Gerry's Dream, 100/1 Hockworthy Flyer
100/1 Thewayyouact, 150/1 Cloudings Well.

Mares Maiden hurdle

Belfair's market

Show just 3 horses
Trading under 33/1

Looks a burglary race

SANTA ROSSA is a 7yo
She does have decent form
But she last ran 406 days ago

February March April
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any distance

Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 182 days
Have a 0-59 record
SANTA ROSSA fails this

She is also on the small side
Don't want that in a huge field
With the ground on the soft side

MANITOPARK AA 

Willie Mullins
Warm favourite around 11/10
She is bound to be a big threat

The AA after her name  
Stands for Anglo-Arabian
A separate breed to thoroughbreds
No idea how significant this is 
But it certainly is not a positive

The obvious each way bet
DREAMINGANDHOPING 3/1

Not everyone will appreciate that
Going to give two staking options

Selection

Option 1

DREAMINGANDHOPING 3/1

Each Way


Option 2

£5 Win Bet DREAMINGANDHOPING 3/1

£5 Win Bet MANITOPARK AA  1/1

Option 2 basically means
We are getting even money
About Dreamingandhoping
With money back on the favourite
We only have to beat Santa Rossa
And a lot of horses at 33/1 and more

Either option works for me
I will go with Option 2 here

Final Selection

£5 Win Bet DREAMINGANDHOPING 3/1

£5 Win Bet MANITOPARK AA  1/1






Newbury 2.30

9/4 Proschema, 7/2 Tegerek, 9/2 Glynn
7/1 Millers Bank 10/1 Golden Taipan, Style De Garde
12/1 Dino Velvet 12/1 Hasanabad, 16/1 Sofia's Rock
25/1 Highway One O Two.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

TEGEREK is drifting
Not surprised to be honest
Has a nasty absence to overcome
Has not progressed as expected

GLYNN has a chance
But he pulled up last time
Bit short of runs this season
STYLE DE GARDE his stablemate
May need the run with his absence
HIGHWAY ONE O ONE is rejected
Beaten too far only 13 days ago
GOLDEN TAIPAN would be risky
Has not hurdled in over 12 months
DINO VELVET is very exposed
Likely to be vulnerable to improvers
HASANABAD has 2 hurdle starts
Bit too raw a profile on this track

PROSCHEMA

The money horse

Can not pretend he is value

But I think he might win this

Entered in the County Hurdle
He is 10/1 to win at Cheltenham
But he is well down the weights
He will need to win this race
To have any chance of running

His stable target the county hurdle
They have won the race many times
And if this horse tries to better that
He will need to be winning today

Selection

PROSCHEMA  6/4

Win Bet







Kelso 3.15

9/4 The Shunter, 5/1 Faivoir, 7/1 Christopher Wood
8/1 Solo, 9/1 Hunters Call, 10/1 Tommy's Oscar
14/1 Night Edition, 14/1 Orkan, 14/1 Voix Du Reve
20/1 Blakeney Point, Newtown Boy, 25/1 Playa Blanca
25/1 Scardura, 33/1 Locker Room Talk.

Morebattle Hurdle

Almost always won
But a lightly raced horse

THE SHUNTER is not
He has 24 career starts
He has 11 hurdle races

Do we really want that
 
Past winners
Had the following career runs
11 12 7 9 4 11 5 3 6 
 
Past winners
Had the following hurdle runs
11 5 4 9 2 8 3 2 5

Every winner had under 13 runs
Every winner had under 12 hurdle runs

A horse coming from a chase ?

February and March
Handicap Hurdles 
2m 3f or less
Class 2 or higher
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from a Chase
Running within 95 days
Return a 0-90 record in them
THE SHUNTER fails this angle

The 2018 winner of this
Came from a chase like him
But that was not a handicap
 
Not underestimating him
He won a Greatwood hurdle
That is serious form
Better than any of these can do
But his profile is hardly safe

Staying with a horse
Who is  lighter raced than he is
HUNTERS CALL is 11 years old
More runs than any past winner
CHRISTOPHER WOOD is unsafe
Too many runs and has topweight

NIGHT EDITION ran 13 days ago
Did not achieved enough there

Every past winner
Was rated 133 or more
Horses rated lower were 0-14
NIGHT EDITION is only rated 127
ORKAN is only rated 124

Shortlist

SOLO 13/2-6/1

TOMMY'S OSCAR 13/2-6/1

FAIVOIR 13/2-6/1


SOLO is interesting
Needed the run at Wincanton

Had far too much to do at Sandown
As a 4yo off topweight on heavy

Last time he was stepping up 5f
He had 11st 12lbs in the Lanzarote
No horse had won with over 11st 8lbs
Too much weight for a 5 year old
And he was not knocked about there

Quality horse who could take this
As have several down in distance

There is a 100k bonus
For horses winning this race
And winning the County hurdle
My guess is Nicholls wants this

Selection

SOLO 13/2-6/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4






Doncaster 4.40

15/8 Kildimo, 2/1 Buzz De Turcoing
5/1 Erne River 9/1 Glen Vine, 12/1 Mont Saint Vincent
20/1 Ernesto 20/1 Lord Buttons, 25/1 Norvics Reflection
33/1 Boulting For Glory, 33/1 Native Choice
100/1 Travelling Max.

Novice Hurdle 2m 3f

Lots of dead wood here

KILDIMO is hardly that

I'm old enough
To remember the first Kildimo

The 2021 version is a 6yo
Ran really well last time out
Went into a lot of peoples notebook
He will be many peoples banker

But should he be ?

Ran his profile
And there are some flaws

February and March
Since 2007
Novice Hurdles 
Run over 2m 3f or more
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from a 2m maiden hurdle
With under 3 lifetime starts
Return a 0-41 record in them
KILDIMO shares this profile

January to April 
Novice Hurdles 
Run over 2m 3f or more
Since 2009
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from a 2m maiden hurdle
With under 3 lifetime starts
Have a 0-59 record in them

Maybe it's not that easy
Going from a maiden to a novice
When up in trip and inexperienced
These statistics suggest it might not

ERNE RIVER has ran once
That was 119 days ago now
Not ruled out but a raw profile

BUZZ DE TURCOING

Has achieved as much if not more
He has more experience on his side
Statistically looks a safer option

Selection

BUZZ DE TURCOING 7/4-2/1

Win Bet





Southwell 8.30

15/8 Khatm, 7/2 Gulland Rock, 6/1 Billyoakes
8/1 Baron Run, Out For A Duck, 10/1 Send In The Clouds
10/1 The King's Steed, 12/1 Zahirah, 20/1 Feel The Thunder
66/1 Ayyaamy, 100/1 Apachito.

Classified Stakes race 7f

KHATM has an unusual profile
Lightly raced 4 year old
Dropping down from 10f to 7f
Having raced just 7 days ago
Winning as well over 10 furlongs
Just feels a very unorthodox profile
Can't be sure few like him tried
But I am opposing him on his profile

Several of these have long absences

BARON RUN a 11yo absent 419 days
FEEL THE ABSENCE the same problem
ONE FOR A DUCK a filly absent 170 days

SEND IN THE CLOUDS is lightly raced
Low figures and well beaten last time out
THE KINGS STEED is running low numbers

Shortlist

ZAHIRAH
GULLAND ROCK
BILLYOAKES

ZAHIRAH is modest
They all all to be fair
Requires a leap of faith
But 2 bad draws in her last 3 runs

BILLYOAKES a 9yo has the class
Even if he is knocking on a bit
Not sure we want a 9 year old
Drawn 11 of 11 at Southwell over 7f
Go back 20 years
Southwell 7f races
Under 13 runners
Horses aged 8 or more
Drawn 11 or higher are 0-30

GULLAND ROCK is a 10yo
Can't rule out but has limitations

ZAHIRAH is given the chance
She doesn't need to improve much

Selection

ZAHIRAH 14/1-12/1

Each Way

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