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Aintree

Starts tomorrow

 


Today

Grand National preview

This is in three parts

Part 1 - Race analysis

Part 2 - Finding a shortlist

Part 3 - Staking Options




Important race
 
But no plans for a staked bet 

No harm in doing the race early





Yesterday's Review     

A shorter non committal message
Hard to know how we performed
Broke level in the first preview
A photo away from a winning bet
One horse scorched away in front
That was clearly a falsely run race 
No idea if it helped or hindered us
The Rutland Rebel finished in 2nd
Ran well but no safety net for us
Next race was a win and place bet
Port Noir the place bet came in 5th
If you bet her in the 5 place market
It would have returned full stakes
Best bet of the day was in the last
Uncle Jimbo I'd afraid was unlucky
Continuously stopped in his tracks
Run fairly he would have won that
Overall think we were a bit unlucky
 
 
  

PROFILES & PREVIEWS 


No Coverage







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  




Saturday

April 10th

Aintree 5.15

Grand National Handicap
 
7/2 Cloth Cap 8/1 Burrows Saint 9/1 Any Second Now
11/1 Kimberlite Candy 12/1 Minella Times 18/1 Secret Reprieve
18/1 The Storyteller 18/1 Discorama  20/1 Magic Of Light
22/1 Potters Corner 25/1 Farclas 25/1 Bristol De Mai
28/1 Some Neck 28/1 Anibale Fly 33/1 Acapella Bourgeois
33/1 Mister Malarky 33/1 Milan Native 33/1 Class Conti
40/1 Chris's Dream 40/1 Canelo 40/1 Takingrisks 
40/1 Lord du Mesnil 40/1 Le Breuil 40/1 Lake View Lad
40/1 Yala Enki 50/1 Vieux Lion Rouge 50/1 Shattered Love 
50/1 Ok Corral 50/1 Double Shuffle 50/1 Balko des Flos
50/1 The Long Mile 66/1 Golan Fortune 66/1 Give Me A Copper  
66/1 Talkischeap  66/1 Deise Aba 66/1 Definitly Red  
66/1 Alpha des Obeaux 66/1 Valtor 66/1 Hogan's Height 
80/1 Blaklion 80/1 Minellacelebration 100/1 Ami Desbois 
100/1 Cabaret Queen  100/1 Sub Lieutenant 100/1 Jett 
100/1 Kauto Riko 100/1 Ballyoptic  100/1 Tout Est Permis
100/1 Fagan 

Assuming a rating of 140 
Will not get into the race

May as well start
With some Generic Stats
  
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or further
Any time of year
Horses rated 150 or higher
Absent more than 46 days
Have a 0-101 record in them 
Rejecting these on this angle

BRISTOL DE MAI
YALA ENKI
TAKINGRISKS
BALLYOPTIC
KIMBERLITE CANDY

Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or further
Any time of year
Horses aged 5-6-7-8
Rated 150 or higher
Absent more than 31 days
Have a 0-51 record in them
Rejecting these on this angle

BURROWS SAINT 
MISTER MALARKEY

Opposing 7 year olds
For long established reasons
Rejecting these on this angle

FARCLAS
THE LONG MILE
SECRET REPRIEVE

Aintree
Handicaps since 1997
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 56 days 
Have a 0-103 record
The following fail this

VIEUX LION ROUGE
MINELLACELBRATION
GIVE ME A COPPER
FAGAN

The above 4 horses 
All fail this new statistic

Go back to 1997
Graded Handicap Chases
Any distance
With 20 or more runners
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 43 days
Have a 0-196 record in them 
Other horses failing this

SUB LIEETENANT
POTTERS CORNER
AMI DESBOIS

ANIBALE FLY almost fails this
Scrapes in by only single day
But has to be rejected here
Having raced once in 13 months

Recent National winners
Runs since previous August 
3 4 3 5 4 8 7 4 3 4 6 4 4 6 6 6

Having 1 or 2 runs this year
Based on past National results
Looks statistically unacceptable 
The following horses fail this

ANIBALE FLY 
KIMBERLITE CANDY 
KAUTO RIKO
OK CORRAL 
DISCORAMA
TALKSCHEAP
HOGAN HEIGHTS

DISCORAMA has 146 days off

Winners absence (days)

24 31 84 34 29 23 35 58 35 23 21 41 32 27 48
28 20 25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25 
Last 29 winners ran within 84 days
28 of 29 winners ran within 58 days

DISCORAMA fails this statistic
KIMBERLITE CANDY fails it too


 
CLOTH CAP

He only has 3 runs this year
But probably more worrying
Just 1 run now in 133 days

Yes we all know he is well in
But this is a worrying angle

Grand Nationals since 1997

Horses with just 1 run
In the previous 127 days
Have a 0-158 record in them
CLOTH CAP fails this statistic

The closest winner to him
Was One For Arthur in 2017
Who had just 1 run in 124 days
But it is still a very poor record

You also have his sire as well

Horses sired by Beneficial
Running in all Graded races

They are 1-72 over 3m 3f +
They are 0-51 over 3m 5f +
This race is 5 furlongs more
CLOTH CAP fails these angles
He may win with his positives
But my angles say don't bet him

CHRIS'S DREAM is underraced
He has raced once in 125 days
He has had just 3 runs this year 
But pulled up in his last race
He is wrong on my levels here
And he comes from a 2m 4f race
Just 1 of the last 17 winners did
 
Horses pulling up in chase last time
Have a 0-135 record since 1997
CHRIS'S DREAM fails this angle
CABARET QUEEN fails this as well

Opposing the 12 year olds
They hardly ever win this

DEFINITLY RED one of those
Looks underraced this season
BLACKLION has the same issue
VALTOR another likes small fields

Horses aged 10 or more
More than 12 chase starts
Under 4 runs in 7 months
Have a 0-114 record in this

LAKE VIEW LAD fails this angle
ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS does
He has sire problems we well

Horses sired by Network
Running over 3m 3f or more
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a modest 0-35 record
ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS fails this

No horse under 9 years old
Won with over 16 chase runs
TOUT EST PERMIS fails this

LORD DU MESNI fails this too
Very exposed for an 8 year old
Having has as many as 21 chases
Winning the Haydock trial on soft
May not be the ideal preparation
And all his wins are in small fields

Happy to oppose the following

DOUBLE SHUFFLE aged 11
Very exposed with 29 chases
JETT has had 32 chase runs
More than any winner in decades
DEISE ABA is too out of form
SHATTERD LOVE a 10yo mare
Would really prefer a small field
She would be a shock winner
BALKO DES FLOS is resistible
Exposed not enough sign of life
GOLAN FORTUNE is outclassed

CANELO is an 8yo
Nicely unexposed with 10 chases
Several runs this year as well
Just don't see a British winner
One other thing that bothers me
He is only a May 26th foal
He is not really an 8yo for 46 days
That would probably make him
The youngest winner in decades

CLASS CONTI is a 9yo
Down the Mullins pecking order
Too many doubts about him
With just 4 runs in 15 months
One of which he didn't complete
If you look at his sires record
Those in Listed + Graded races
Are 0-16 over 3m 2f and further


THE STORYTELLER

He is a 10yo
He has 20 Chase runs
He has 11st 8lbs weight 
 
I'd prefer fewer runs
I'd prefer less weight
Horses with 11st 9lbs or more
Have a poor 1-67 record in this
That was Many Clouds in 2015
He won off a 160 official rating 
THE STORYTELLER runs off 165
Suspect that may be a problem
But so may be his sire Shantou
Horses sired by Shantou
Running in Listed/Graded class
Have a 0-48 record over 3m 2f +


ANY SECOND NOW

Love bits about his profile 
Been laid out for this race
Ticks some lovely boxes 
But he comes from a 2m race

Go back to 2002 
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 3f and more
Run in Class 3 or higher  
No horse has won
Coming from any chase
Run over 2m 1f or shorter
Only 31 tried but all failed
ANY SECOND NOW fails this

ALPHA DES OBEAUX

Backed him at 100/1
Just because of history with him
Would hate to see him win unbacked
But as a horse aged 11 now
With 31 previous chase runs
He really should not be winning this


MAGIC OF LIGHT

She is a 10yo mare
Came 2nd in the 2019 race
10yo mares rarely win these races
One won in the 2019 Irish National
That mare was far less exposed
She has 22lbs less weight as well

MAGIC OF LIGHT has 18 chases
Not really a profile I can call safe
She's raced just once in 117 days
Beaten 34 lengths 22 days ago
May win but I'm a bit cold on her

MILAN NATIVE 

He is an 8 year old
His preparation worries me

Horses from Cheltenham 
Running in a festival Handicap
Not including the Cross Country
Have a poor record in past years 
Since 1998 they are just 1-164
Since 2002 they are just 0-133 
MILAN NATIVE fails this angle
Don't want to eliminate him 
purely just on that one off stat
As he is young and unexposed
And from a good sire in Milan 

SOME NECK 

He is a 10 year old
He came 3rd at Cheltenham
Behind Tiger Roll in X country
He has slipped under the radar
Don't have a statistical problem
He will need to jump well to win
His attitude has been questioned
These are my superficial criticisms
Willie Mullins let him go as well
More positives than negatives
He will either love it or hate it

MINELLA TIMES 

He is an 8yo
Unexposed and good connections
I would have to knock points off him
Coming up from a 2m 5f handicap
No horse under 9 won this race
Coming from 2m 7f or less (0-39)

Horses aged 8
Coming from 3m or shorter
Have a poor 1-63 record in this
Those like him absent over 25 days
Have a 0-40 record in this race
MINELLA TIMES fails these angles
Could turn a blind eye to his issues
But he is now quite a short price







Part 2

Finding a Shortlist


Did the preview with a lot of care
Looked at every horse one by one

THE STORYTELLER was the last
Every other horse had negatives
So I was really hoping to like him
But he has too much against him


By then

Every horse a negative
  
Something clearly wrong

I had overshot the runway

Needed to roll it back again


CLOTH CAP

Nobody likes the price
Dislike the profile as well
Preview gives him a kicking
Do not fancy him to in it
 
So where was the mistake ?

Should we in changing times 
Reconsider the 7 year olds ?
Was not prepared to do this
Best they did was a 6th place


Alpha des Obeaux 

By then had not ruled him out
But suspect I am fooling myself
My angles tell me to give him up


Several horses  

Have statistical problems

We could turn a blind eye
Take a more forgiving approach

The problem here
They are short in the market

Not enough incentive to do that

ANY SECOND NOW an example
Coming from 2m is a major issue
And if we overlook that problem
The rewards at 12/1 are paltry

MINELLA TIMES is similar
We could overlook his issues
Given his is nicely unexposed
But the rewards are not there
At least not as the final choice

BURROWS SAINT

He fails generic statistics
But given other negatives
The fact he is lightly raced
I see him as a possible saver


POTTERS CORNER

11 year old
Pulled up last time out
I do hate his runs this season

But statistically there's wiggle room
As he pulled up in a hurdle race
And he is still very lightly raced
Despite the fact he is 11 years old

SOME NECK

Real dilemma with him

You can look at his profile
Clearly see a possible winner
But only if he takes to the race

He could easily be the one
Given he is racing off 10st 1lbs

But does he have the character ?
Does he have the guts to take this ?
He does make my shortlist though

MISTER MALARKY

First impressions

Colin Tizzard English horse
May not be the safest option
But his profile has positives

Horses aged 8 and 9
Are dominating this recently
8 year olds won 3 of the last 5

The Generic Statistic he fails
 
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or further
Any time of year
Horses aged 5-6-7-8
Rated 150 or higher
Absent more than 31 days
Have a 0-51 record in them

That is a problem
But he has 42 days absence
We could forgive him 11 days

Given how unexposed he is
As he has 5 prep runs this year





Part 3

Staking Options

Staked to £10


Possible £1 Savers

12/1 Burrows Saint  
12/1 Any Second Now
12/1 Minella Times  

May not even use savers
Deserve no more than £1
Not convinced its worth it


In a non staked bet
Probably wont bother





Possible Selections


POTTERS CORNER 25/1

Far from convinced here

But a £0.50 saver on him
Does return the full stakes
That feels very affordable


SOME NECK 33/1-40/1

Will be making the staking
Not decided yet what role


MISTER MALARKY 33/1

He will be on the staking

One Ante Post rule 

That I always bear in mind

Things look completely different
Once you arrive at the race day

Could easily change my mind later

Final Stakes

Will have to wait for the day
 
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