4 Previews
0 Bet Today 



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Today's Message


Monday there will be a message
There are 6 meetings tomorrow
Quiet Mondays are now finished

Hope to go through all next week
Not confirmed yet but no day off


Only 4 previews today

Surprised and a bit disappointed
Many races are time consuming
Several more require guesswork
And the two target races planned
Have sucked up much of my time

 
This was the day

To focus on 2 target races

  


Spring Cup
    
Newbury 3.20 

£8.00 Win Bet DANYAH 7/2

£1.00 Each Way THE GILL BROTHERS 28/1-25/1
 
We have ran into a problem
The 5/2 favourite pulled out
That has shortened prices
Meant my original staking
Is now no longer affordable
Have to take a riskier path

DANYAH has the right profile
Could have gone each way
But that would mean only 7/2
Decided to go for a win bet
NUGGET has been sacrificed
Gone for a different saver bet
THE GILL BROTHERS at 25/1
Probably won't be good enough
But he has some momentum 

The favourite pulling out 8am
Has killed any chance of a bet



Scottish National

Ayr 3.35
 
£2.00 Each Way - COUP DE PINCEAU 16/1-18/1
£2.00 Each Way -  CHEF D'OEUVRE 16/1-18/1
£2.00 Place Bet - SOME CHAOS  4/1-5/1
 
Again hard to stake this race 
Probably requires a lot of luck 
 
Two big priced each way bets 
Done a few recent national races
We have been unlucky in some
With 2 random first fence fallers
With the account in a bit of a rut
Not prepared to stake this race
Given the huge field over 4 miles 




 

Preview Selections


Satratford 12.50
Jeremy Pass 10/11-1/1
Win Bet

Ayr 1.15
£7.00 Win Bet Theinval 7/1
£1.50 Win Bet Some Reign 7/1
£1.50 Win Bet Return Ticket 8/1
 
Newbury 3.20
£8.00 Win Bet Danyah 7/2 
£1.00 Each Way The Gill Brothers 28/1-25/1

Ayr 3.35

£2.00 Each Way - Coup De Pinceau 16/1-18/1
£2.00 Each Way -  Chef D'Oeuvre 16/1-18/1
£2.00 Place Bet - Some Chaos  4/1-5/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6






Yesterday's Review      
  
Didn't go as planned yesterday
No complaints with Bangors bet
Been in that situation many times
Oppose the favourite and guess  
The rest of the message ran flat
Curragh races all finished L W L
Misterio finished in second place
That was a badly staked selection
Should have gone each way there
After the reserves had come out
But those Irish morning markets
With no liquidity are outrageous
Muskateer Three finished in 3rd
Disappointed but not surprised
Knew he didn't have much class
Feel that was badly staked too
Should have split staked the bet
Half the stake to place on the 2nd
Felt the night bets were strongest
Recall The Show was a good saver
JEAN BAPTISTE second each way 
Only beaten a neck which is a shame
But there was a crucial non runner
So just relieved he finished second
BLAME CULTURE was the main bet
Unfortunately he just ran a stinker
First apology is for the wrong name
Said Blame Game not Blame Culture
Annoying error embarrassed by that
Not too clear why he did not perform 
Racing Post suggest he was injured
Maybe he couldn't handle the track
May never find out why it happened
But a bad end to a weaker message





PROFILES & PREVIEWS  




Stratford 12.50

5/6 Jeremy Pass, 5/6The Bull McCabe.

Novice Hurdle 2m 6f

Any statistical argument
Weakened by 2 runners

JEREMY PASS my choice
Better stable does help us

THE BULL MCCABE can win
But he fails the following stat

April
Novice Hurdles
2m 6f and more
Horses with 1 run in 4 months
Running in the last 24  days
Return a 0-47 record in them
THE BULL MCCABE shares this

That suggests to me
Having just 1 run in 156 days
Could tilt the edge to his rival

Selection

JEREMY PASS  10/11-1/1

Win Bet








Ayr 1.15

9/4 King D'argent, 5/2 Grand Sancy
5/1 Some Reign, 7/1 Duke Of Navan
8/1 Return Ticket, 8/1 Theinval.

Listed Chase 2m
 
There is a statistical argument
To oppose the favourite here

KING D'ARGENT is a 6yo

None have won this race

Similar races in April show
Horses aged 6 are just 2-34
Both won Aintree's Red Rum
But they had 11st 1lbs or less

The key here

Maybe the combination of age
With weight as this stat shows

January to September
Handicap Chases under 2m 4f
Listed and Graded Class

Horses aged 6
Carrying more than 11st 1lbs
Have a 0-22 record in them

Not a significant record
But it is over several months
KING D'ARGENT has 11st 11lbs

Feels dangerous
So going to take him on

GRAND SANCY could win
Horses down from 2m 4f do well
They are 3-7 in this race  
Clearly at his best in small fields

But he is a 7yo with 11st 12lbs

Similar races in April
Horses aged 7
With 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-16 record
GRAND SANCY fails this

March April May
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded class
Any distance
Horses aged 7
Over 4 chase runs
With 11st 10lbs or more
Have a modest 0-31 record 
GRAND SANCY fails this


There are dangers here
Lower down in the weights

DUKE OF NAVAN is out aged 13

THEINVAL may be an 11yo
But he ran well 2 days ago
Has history in this race too

With 6 runners
This is a nightmare to stake
SOME REIGN can't be ruled out
RETURN TICKET could win too

So staggering the staking


Selection
 
£7.00 Win Bet THEINVAL 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet SOME REIGN 7/1-8/1

£1.50 Win Bet RETURN TICKET 8/1






Newbury 3.20

7/2 Danyah, 5/1 Nugget 5/1 Matthew Flinders
10/1 Raaeq, 12/1 Newbolt 12/1 Imperial Command
14/1 National League 14/1 Johan, The Gill Brothers
14/1 Oh This Is Us 16/1 Power Of Darkness, 20/1 Bear Force One
20/1 History Writer, Revich, 25/1 Gin Palace
25/1 HMS President, Trais Fluors. 

Spring Cup Handicap


Past winners
Has these official ratings 

99 95 100 96 95 85 85 97 86 95 
89 100 88 98 94 82 79 100 78 83
 
Horses rated 101 or higher
Have a 0-40 record in this race

RAAEQ fails this rated 107
That's a far higher rating 
Than all the past 20 winners
Has to do it with 6 months off

JOHAN has a rating of 105
Won't be easy first time out

OH THIS IS US is rated 102
No past winner has that rating
If he wins it will be his absence
Coming here only 5 days ago
He could have a fitness edge
But hard to trust as an 8-y-old
Horses aged 7 or more 
Have a 1-62 record since 1998

TRAIS FLUORS is rated 104
Drawn widest of 18 runners too

Middle draws are best
Stalls 4-15 the ideal range

Newbury 
8f Handicaps
Since 1999 
Over 12 runners  
Horses draw 1 
Have a 1-59 record
None won in fields of 15 +

MATTHEW FLINDERS drawn 1
He will not find that easy 

Only 1 of the last 20 winners
Managed to win this first time
With under 8 career starts
That was Lang Shining in 2008
All horses trying this were 1-57
RAAEQ has this 1-57 profile too


Since 2006
Seasonal debutants
Drawn in stall 13 or higher
Have a 0-58 record in this race
BEAR FORCE ONE fails this
He may not get the trip today
With a wide draw and absence
 
HMS PRESDEINT fails this too
First time out drawn in stall 15
Not strong on breeding stats

HISTORY WRITER is a 6yo
Ran in the Lincoln handicap
Started 50/1 beaten 10 lengths
Not enough to tempt me here
 
Horses aged 6 or more 
Have a poor 2-117 record
Those aged 6 + with under 9st 4lbs
Have a 0-84 record in this race
HISTORY WRITER fails this angle
POWER OF DARKNESS does too
He could easily need the run here

REVICH ran in the Lincoln
Beaten at 100/1 in that handicap
He is very exposed with 25 runs 
Horses with over 21 runs
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have a 0-97 record in this race
REVICH fails this 0-97 statistic

Horses from 7f or shorter
Have a 1-55 record since 2004
Those running this year are 0-29
Those aged 4 doing it are 0-27
NATIONAL LEAGUE fails this
Not for me going up 2 grades

IMPERIAL COMMAND is a 4yo
Comes here on a hat trick
After winning 2 Class 4 races
He fails the following statistic

Horses from the All Weather
Coming from Class 3 or lower
Have a 0-40 record in this
 
Since the 2004 renewal
Horses from Class 4 or lower
Have a 0-32 record in this
IMPERIAL COMMAND fails this
NATIONAL LEAGUE fails this 

GIN PALACE is first time out
His stable are not firing right now
His sire's record very shaky

NEWBOLT has a small chance
Horses from the All Weather
Coming from Class 3 or lower
Have a 0-40 record in this
NEWBOLT fails this statistic
   

Shortlist

THE GILL BROTHERS 28/1-25/1

NUGGET 7/1

DANYAH 4/1
 
THE GILL BROTHERS is a 5yo
He will need a career best here
But he does have momentum
One of the best outsiders here

DANYAH is a 4yo
His profile is a classic fit
Probably the best in the race
Not keen on the stable though

NUGGET has a similar profile
But with just one slight concern
Had a seasonal debut 11 days ago
Being on the bounce worries me

The similar 4yo winners to both
That had 1 prep run this season
All had 3 or more weeks absence

DANYAH has that sensible gap
NUGGET with 11 days off is riskier
Can not say it is a negative for him
But one more unanswered question

Go back to 1999 
Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 
Have a miserable 1-76 record

Horses drawn 1-2
Have a 0-38 record since 1999
NUGGET fails these draw stats
MATTHEW FLINDERS does too

Not that many runners this year
So that could undermine things

What really has damaged things
The 5/2 favourite is a non runner

That has killed my staking plan

Now had to take a riskier route


Either could win
DANYAH is the safer choice
   
Selection

£8.00 Win Bet DANYAH 7/2

£1.00 Each Way THE GILL BROTHERS 28/1-25/1









Ayr 3.35

11/2 Aye Right, 9/1 Dingo Dollar,  10/1 Sam's Adventure
10/1 Soldier Of Love, 10/1 Notachance, 11/1 Mister Fogpatches
11/1 Vintage Clouds, 12/1 Mighty Thunder, 12/1  The Ferry Master
16/1 Enqarde, 18/1 Chapel Stile, Oldgrangewood, 20/1 Big River
20/1 Dino Boy, 20/1 Some Chaos, 25/1 Claud And Goldie
25/1 Coup De Pinceau, Lake View Lad, 28/1 The Hollow Ginge
33/1 Chidswell, Cool Mix, The Dutchman, 40/1 Chef D'Oeuvre.


Scottish Grand National

Since 1997
Horses rated 151 or more
Have a 0-24 record in this 

LAKE VIEW LAD rated 155
Looks an unlikely winner
Even if you excuse Aintree 

AYE RIGHT is rated 154
None have won off his rating
He also fails a Generic stat

Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or further
Any time of year
Horses aged 5-6-7-8
Rated 150 or higher
Absent more than 31 days
Have a 0-51 record in them
AYE RIGHT fails this angle 

DINGO DOLLAR is a 9yo
Find it hard to like him here
He's only won in small fields
Has downgraded from Alan King 
Never won off todays rating
And he looks underraced here
Having just 1 run in 134 days

Only 2 past winners
Were absent over 57 days
They had 84 + 104 days off
SOLDIER OF LOVE has 157 days off

Go back to 2003
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or further
Any time of year
Horses under 9 years old
Absent more than 84 days
Have a 0-77 record in them
SOLDIER OF LOVE fails this
THE HOLLOW GUNGE also fails this

CCOL MIX has 107 days off
May lack the class in this grade

BIG RIVER is 11 years old
I'd argue underraced this year
CLAUDE AND GOLDIE a 12yo
Has the same problem as well
CHIDSWELL is rejected aged 12

NOTACHANCE is a 7yo
Go back as far as the 1950 renewal
No 7yo won this with more than 11st 3lbs
NOTACHANCE survives that by 1lbs
But he has raced 3 times this year
He pulled up on his latest start as well 
Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time
Have a 1-131 record in recent seasons 
NOTACHANCE fails another angle
No horse with 11st 3lbs or more
Has won this absent over 6 weeks 
Not a safe enough profile for me

Horses from Cheltenham Festival
Coming from a Handicap Chase
Had a 0-65 record since 1999
OLDGRANGEWOD has this problem 

ENQARDE is too risky
He fails a breeding statistic
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Listed and Graded class
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-25 record so far  
Don't see this French bred staying

THE FERRY MASTER is a 
He has problems to overcome
His sire is just not convincing 
Never had a winner beyond 3m
He also comes from a 2m 4f race

Past renewals show
Horses from 2m 6f or less
Have a 1-52 record since 1999
That winner won 7 days before

THE FERRY MASTER has 4 chase runs

Past winners
Number of Chase runs 

5 13 7 22 10 6 18 4 10 16 
13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10

Every past winner bad the 2011 winner
Had more experience over fences
With just the 1 run in the last 157 days
THE FERRY MASTER has too much on

CHAPEL STILE also has 4 chases
Still quite inexperienced in this
If you look at his sire Scorpion
His winners over 3m 2f or more
Have only won in low grades
They are 0-22 in Class 4 or more

SAM'S ADVENTURE is a 9yo
He won the Eider Chase last time
That would seriously concern me
That race takes a lot out of a horse
No horse from that race won this
THE DUTCHMAN also raced there
Exposed 11yo who is short of runs
DINO BAY doesn't appeal much
Looks underraced this season


MISTER FOGPATCHES is a 7yo
Must be a respected Irish Raider 
Looked at past 7yo winners
Has has a lower rating than all
I would see that as a positive
The 7yo winners that took this
Had 7 6 14 6 previous chase runs
MISTER FOGPATCHES only has 5
He's raced once in only 111 days
And the other statistical concern
He comes from a 2m 5f race

He fails this manufactured stat

Go back to 2003
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or further
Any time of year

Male horses
Aged 7 or younger
Under 9 chase starts
Coming from 2m 6f  or shorter
Return a 0-60 record in them
MISTER FOGPATCHES fail this
My angles say kick him out
But a good trainer he is Irish
Wouldn't be a shock if he won

MIGHTY THUNDER is an 8yo
Lightly raced with 5 chase runs
Second in the Midland National
One past winner prepped there
He was an 8 year old as well
Depends on his recovery
Certainly wouldn't rule him out
But he has had 18 hurdle runs 
Horses with over 10 hurdle runs
Have a 1-108 record since 1998
Horses with quite long hurdle careers
Do not tend to win these races


Shortlist

CHEF D'OEUVRE 16/1-18/1

SOME CHAOS 20/1

COUP DE PINCEAU 16/1-18/1



COUP DE PINCEAU is a 9yo
Not guaranteed to stay this far
Winning a class 3 last time
Is actually a good sign in this race
The ground should suit him well

Looks very well handiapped 
 

CHEF D'OEUVRE won last time
There are positives in his profile
Not sure his prep is safe enough
Winning at Haydock last time out
Not sure he will stay 4 miles
Damsire's stamina index of 7.9f
Looks a warning flag about that
Risky but 33/1 compensates for it



SOME CHAOS is a 10yo
Happy with that and 10 chase runs
He has ran twice since November
Both runs were over hurdles
Not sure if that hurts or helps
But Al Co did the same in 2014
Made him a negative at Wincanton
He had previously won at Kelso
Feel there are a lot of positives
 
Selection 

£2.00 Each Way - COUP DE PINCEAU 16/1
£2.00 Each Way -  CHEF D'OEUVRE 20/1

£2.00 Place Bet - SOME CHAOS  4/1-5/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6

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