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Race Previews
 
Taunton 12.30
Taunton 3.40 
Wetherby 4.30




Today's Message 
 
 
The landscape is grim today

Tuesday is normally the worst day 
Never at my best after the day off

This message clearly a candidate
For the worst message this month

What will save it from that shame
The fate of today's strongest bet



Wetherby 4.30

DUHALLOW TORNADO 11/8-6/4-13/8

Win Bet


Hunter Chase

Not really in my comfort zone
But a clear choice of issues
Class horse or fittest horse
Fitness won on this occasion




Today's Best Bet

  
Wetherby 4.30

DUHALLOW TORNADO 11/8-6/4-13/8

Win Bet





Sunday's Review 


Previous message was on Sunday
Turned out to be an effective one
A consistent P P P P L W P finish
Some of the prices hard to obtain
Not so in the big betfair handicap 
SOARING GLORY won very easily
Everytime I covered that handicap
He came out as most likely winner
Successful race for the statistics
Also landed the days best bet too
Unstaked but at least he did win it 





PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Taunton 12.30

5/1 Shadow's Girl, 11/2 Zero To Hero, 7/1 The Weasel
8/1 Airton, Vicenzo Mio, 10/1 Candyman Can, Dubheen
10/1 Flanagans Field, 12/1 Dan Gun 14/1 Polo The Mumm
20/1 Earthly, 25/1 Invicta Lake 25/1 Rathnure Ranger
50/1 Auenwirbel, Fethard Flyer 50/1 Linguine.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

Low grade race
40 similar during February
Just following some angles

Mares have a 5-112 record
Those aged under 7 are 0-43
Those with 11st 6lbs or more 0-16
ZERO TO HERO fails both angles

SHADOW'S GIRL is a 9yo mare
She has 99 days absence as well

February Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Since 2011
Female horses
More than 17 career starts
Absent over 67 days 
Have a 0-55 record in then
SHADOW'S GIRL with 35 runs fails this

Going to oppose the horses
Aged 11 with long absences 
POLO THE MUMM has this problem
CANDYMAN CAN also has this problem 
FLANAGANS FIELD is rejected aged 13
INVICTA LALE rejected aged 14

Horses aged 11 or older
Coming from a chase are resistible
VINCENZO MIO fails this angle
DAN GUN doesn't offer much
LINGUINIE was considered
But last time out put me off a bit

Shortlist

THE WEASEL
AIRTON
DUBHEEN

THE WEASEL has 5 runs 
My angles insist he is shortlisted
Looks like he was getting a rating
With unfancied runs in non handicaps
Last time was his handicap debut
Inexperienced and had 59 days off
Ran well but blew up and eased
He should strip fitter today

AIRTON makes the list

DUBHEEN has an absence
After a big stable upgrade
He could hack up or flop here

Selection

Small Stakes

£7.00 Win Bet THE WEASEL 10/1

£1.50 Win Bet DUBHEEN 8/1

£1.50 Win Bet AIRTON 7/1





Taunton 3.40

4/1 Follow That, 11/2 Arctic Footprint, 7/1 Always Able
7/1 Avithos, 7/1 Puzzle Cache,  10/1 Sound Of Music
12/1 Golden Glory, 14/1 Havana River
14/1 Kingsmill Gin, 20/1 Autumn Gold, Shoot To Fame
25/1 Annual Flavour, 33/1 Emmas Dilemma
33/1 Princess Roania, 50/1 Secret Palace.

Mares Handicap hurdle 3m

Very open and complicated
The most likely winner of this
Will be  one of the unexposed 
Ideally with under 17 career runs
And not too many hurdle races

Class is a big factor too
Most winners unless lightly raced
Won with 11st or more in these races

Mares Handicaps
With 9 or more runners
At this time of year show
Horses with under 11st
Having over 8 career starts
Have a 0-21 record
AVITHOS has this profile
PUZZLE CACHE does as well
HAVANA RIVER fails this too
As do many of the outsiders

FOLLOW THAT survives this angle
As although one of the lightweights
She has very few previous runs
One other factor against her
She's raced just once in 125 days

GOLDEN GLORY is unsafe
Combining topweight and 89 days off

ALWAYS ABLE has a chance
Acceptable profile but jockey a concern


ARCTIC FOOTPRINT comes out well

The best profile in these races

Horses aged 7
Under 17 career runs
Under 11 hurdle runs
Absent over 2 weeks
Beaten last time out
Not by more than 10 lengths 
10st 12lbs or more
Horses with this profile
Have a 6-12 record 
ARCTIC FOOTPRINT has this profile

Shortlisting 2 horses
Split staking them like this

Selection

£5 Win Bet ARCTIC FOOTPRINT  7/1-8/1-9/1

£5 Place Bet FOLLOW THAT 4/5






Wetherby 4.30

11/8 Road To Rome, 7/4 Duhallow Tornado
10/1 Mr Pepperpot, 12/1 Snow Castle, 16/1 Itstimeforapint
16/1 Teeton Surprise, 20/1 Things Change, 25/1 Asangy
25/1 Greyed A, 33/1 Stellar Notion, 50/1 Greensalt
50/1 Supreme Steel.

Hunter Chase

ROAD TO ROME

11 years old
Last seen back in 2019
The Foxhunter Chases
At Aintree and Cheltenham

Creditable 4th and 5th there
There is a legitimate argument
He is the class horse in the race

But his market rival
Looks a much safer choice today

DUHALLOW TORNADO gets weight
But has a very good run 7 days ago
That could be the crucial factor

February 
Hunter Chases
Run over 2m 4f and more
Since 2011

Horses under 11
Running within 10 days
Finishing 1-2-3 last time out
Beaten under 6 lengths
Return a strong 9-16 record
DUHALLOW TORNADO has this profile

If we extend that record
To January February Match
We find 19 horses ran with it
With 11 of the 19 winning
DUHALLOW TORNADO has this profile

It's a toss up

Class v Fitness

In this case 
Have to side with fitness

Selection

DUHALLOW TORNADO 11/8-6/4-13/8

Win Bet





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 


1) Loose Ends
2) Eider Chase Statistics
3) Target Races results


Loose Ends


Novak Djokovic

Australian Open champion
Saver bet worked out well

That result and performance
Will send shockwaves to some

Such as Tsitipas and Medvedez
Neither have won a Grand Slam 
Both look like they may do soon
But more doubts must creep in
About reaching Djokovic's level

Dominic Thiem has won a slam
But he still has to improve more
Djokovic has that mental edge
Which is why I make him a saver


Albert Bartlet

Minella Escape

Backed him 25/1-33/1 ante post
Was all very promising for a while
But he fell badly in the least 2 out
Probably killed his chance to win
But if does run you can never tell
He will have other factors onside


Gold Cup

Champ

Finished in second Saturday
Excellent comeback run for him
But he seems very short at 7/1
He's raced just once in a year
Could easily be on the bounce
He has to step up a mile in trip
And his sires Grade 1 winners
Have never won beyond 3m 1f
I don't see him winning the race






Ante Post Statistics

Saturday

Newcastle 3.15

Eider Chase 4m
  
Sam's Adventure 4/1 Crosspark 5/1 Calett Mad 7/1
Big River 8/1 The Dutchman 8/1 Classic Ben 10/1 
Salty Boy 10/1 Springfield Fox 10/1 Crossley Tender 12/1
Cyclop 12/1 Little Red Lion 14/1 Strong Economy 16/1
Supreme Escape 20/1 Boyhood 25/1 Haul Us In 33/1
Friends Don't Ask 66/1
  

Official Ratings of winners

135 140 127 126 134 133 131 132
125 139 138 131 137 123 123 121

No past winners have won
Rated higher than 140 since 1997

Past winners
Had the Following Chase runs

17 7 7 11 8 11 5 5
 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8

14 of the last 16 winners
Had under 14 chase runs

None had under 5 chase runs


Number of hurdle races

Past winners of this race
Had the following hurdle runs
5 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 0
No past winners
Had more than 9 hurdle runs

Runs since August 1st
Past winners had these races
4 3 2 3 5 3 3 5 2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3 6 6
No winner had 1 run since August

Horses with 2 runs since August
Have won twice in 2010 and 2017
They had just 7 and 5 chase runs
No horses with over 7 chase runs
Has won with under 3 runs that year

18 of the last 20 winners
Had at least 3 runs since August

Past winners of this race
Had the following days absence

42 19 54 9 44 56 20 17 14
63 28 13 7 23 23 21 29 56

Every winner since 1997
Ran within the last 63 days

Horses aged 12
Have not won since 1995

Handicap Chases
Since 1999
Any Time of year
3m 6f or more
Class 2 or higher
Horses aged 12 or more
They have a 1-202 record
 
January February March
Handicap Chases over 3m 4f +
Run in Class 2 or higher
Since 2010
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 42 days
Had a 0-61 record  

Horses aged 8
Won only 3 renewals in 23 years
They had 7 13 12 chase runs
They had 5 7 3 runs that season
They were absent 14 23 29 days
They had 11st 8lbs or less weight
Since 2002 horses aged 8 are 1-36

Horses aged 7
Have won just twice since 1976
Both ran within the last 3 weeks
Both had 4 + runs that season

Every recent winner
Had under 23 career runs

Last time out winners
Have won 3 Renewals since 1998
They had absences of 23 9 20 days
They were all lightly raced chasers

11 of the last 12 Eider Chase winners
Had the following profile

1) Between 5 and 14 Chase runs
2) Under 10 Hurdle runs
3) Aged 7-8-9-10-11
4) At least 2 runs this season
5) Coming from 2m 7f or more






Target Races

How are these doing ?
 
The last few results below

W W W L W P L P

Given these are big fields
Decent prices in them too
That is a brilliant record

The last 3 have all won

At prices of 8/1 3/1 11/2

But there are criticisms

Not always clear in messages
Which races are target races
Not always clear to me either
That will need to be clearer

Not all of them staked bets
Still early finding their feet

The idea of having target races
We highlight a big weekend race
Spending time midweek on them
Send statistics chew them around
Allowing a few days thinking time
Before making the final decision

This is a FBA initiative

Part of why the column exists

These races get moved on the day

Into profiles and previews section

Hopefully into the top of message

And possibly into the staked bets 

Based on work done days before


Can get a bit messy and confusing
All we have now is raw potential
But early results have been superb


Target Races

Recent Results 
  
Betfair Hurdle
£4.50 Each Way Soaring Glory WON 8/1
£1.00 Saver Bet lost

Haydock Grand National Trial
£5 Win The Two Amigos
£5 Win Lord Du Mesnil WON 7/1

Punchestow Grand National
£5 Each Way The Big Dog WON 11/2

Matheson Handicap Chase
£4 Each Way Port Stanley Lost
£1 Savers also beaten

Ladbrokes Hurdle
£5 Each Way Drop The Anchor WON 10/1-111

Thyestes Chase
£3.75 Each Way Run Wild Fred Placed 8/1 

Warwick Classic Chase
Each Way Storm Control 11/2  lost

Welsh Grand National
£5 Win The Two Amigos 12/1 Lost
£5 Place Secret Repreive 1/1 WON
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