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Today's Racing    


Some soft races today

Shorter prices as well

Still a lot of small fields

By the time you read this
Will be doing the preview
For the Ladbroke Trophy
Plan to release tomorrow

Not a typical message
Not many statistical bets
Some are unproven types
Both sexy and hyped up
Maybe make a nice change

Short prices though
Create problems for us
Access to prices being one
Markets holding up another

There are each way doubles
That we could put into play
Do not want to do that really
But this is one I do appreciate

Punchestown 1.00 -Gentleman Joe 6/4

Wolverhampton 4.00 -New Mission 6/4

Each Way Double



Even typing that suggestion out
Leaves a nasty taste in my mouth
No chance of going down that path
But I think it's an interesting option

Chance of a bet has gone

With the shorter prices today

Just mentioning one race

Chosen partly for the price




Wolverhampton 6.00
 
£6.00 Win Bet BLUE DE VEGA 13/2-7/1

£4.00 Win Bet MONDAMMEJ 13/8-7/4

Expecting the saver to win this
But you never know late season
He's been on the go all season  
And I quite like the strategy here
But this is not account strength

Main priority for me

The Ladbrokes Trophy

Rather than betting hard today






Preview Selections

 
Punchestown 1.00
Gentleman Joe 6/4
Win Bet

Punchestown 1.35
£6.00 Win Bet Grand Jury 4/6
£4.00 Place Bet Protagonist 1/1+

Southwell 2.55
£7.50 Win Bet Methusalar 4/1-7/2
£2.50 Win Bet What A Glance 5/2-3/1

Wolverhampton 4.00
New Mission 6/4
Win Bet

Wolverhampton 6.00
£6.00 Win Bet Blue De Vega 13/2-7/1
£4.00 Win Bet Mondammej  13/8-7/4






Yesterday's Review   

Limited two race message
Had a well backed winner
Had a drifting loser as well
Cancan was a great start
Winner backed 6/1 into 5/2
His experience was telling
Top Man drifted out badly  
The favourite was backed
Managed to get that beat
Top Man finished only 3rd
Had I known his final price
I may have gone each way
Could have staked it better
But overall finished in front



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Punchestown 1.00

2/1 Gentleman Joe, 9/2 Ben Siegel, 6/1 Prairie Dancer
13/2 Brazil, 8/1 Doctor Brown Bear, 10/1 Saywhatyouwant
12/1 Loughisle Lady, Rebel Step, 20/1 Doctor Churchill
25/1 Hillsin, Init Together, 33/1 Elzoom, Justicialism
33/1 Sand Drift, 50/1 Figlio D'arte, 50/1Tullypole Annie
100/1 Balritilmonday, 100/1 Dark Matter, 100/1 Hooklinesinker
100/1 Sawbuck.

3yo Hurdle

We can only guess here

GENTLEMAN JOE is interesting
He has his hurdling debut today
Done a bit of digging with him

His owners maybe significantly
Send 3 favourites to this meeting

He has some decent flat form
He upgraded stables this summer
Moved up to Henry De Bromhead  

He is the 4th favourite at 20/1
To win Cheltenham's Triumph
Been quietly backed for a while
Today will tell us if its realistic

Back in 2009
Henry De Bromhead ran a horse
Called Aspire Tower in this race
He had a very similar profile 
He won this race by 13 lengths
Was later 2nd in the Triumph
He was owned by the same owners

GENTLEMAN JOE 
Is taking the Aspire Tower route
Trying to win this and the Triumph

Happy to make him the selection

But we could stake it with safety
Have a win bet and a place bet
BEN SIEGEL could be that horse
But we are guessing twice if we do

I just feel its significant
The owners send 3 horses
All decent prospects to this card

Selection

GENTLEMAN JOE 6/4

Win Bet 






Punchestown 1.35

11/8 Grand Jury, 3/1 Ardla, 4/1 Smoke And Mirrors
9/2 Monkstreet, 7/1 Protagonist, 20/1 Lizlucky
33/1 Plassey House, 40/1 Dromod Lad, 50/1 Miss Daingerfield
50/1 Moonovercloon, 50/1 Plunkett, Y Fyn 50/1 Duw A Fydd
66/1 Basrah Breeze, Huckleberry Rock, Machine Learner
100/1 Ferrum, Gladys Emmanuel, 150/1 Albedan
150/1 Inductive, Uknowcarty, 200/1 Bright Flame
200/1  Zeydabad.

2m Maiden Hurdle

GRAND JURY

Mentioned in an earlier preview
Significant owners of this horse
Are sending 3 prospects here
This horse is the final one to run

Does not take much research
To know he is very well regarded
Most likely winner without a doubt
But he is plenty short enough too

I prefer the split stake here

GRAND JURY as the saver bet
PROTAGONIST as the place bet

PROTAGONIST 

Unraced 4 year old
Owned by Michael Buckley
Always liked this owner
Often has a decent hurdler
That ends up at Cheltenham

He could play a place role
I don't want him as a win bet
Because he is only a 4yo
And has had 17 career runs

November
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance since 2010
Horses aged 4
No hurdle runs
Over 12 flat runs
Have a 0-66 record in them
PROTAGONIST fails this

November and December
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance since 2010
Horses aged 4
No hurdle runs
Running within 70 days

That tells me
He is unlikely to have enough
But several like him went close
And he could be the place bet

ARDLA does not appeal much
Limited circumstantial positives
No signs he is above average
And I think he will need to be
MONKSTREET is on the raw side
SMOKE AND MIRRORS similar
Starting 33/1 for his 1 hurdle start

GRAND JURY

Should be winning this

It is just the price though

That makes a split stake appeal

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet GRAND JURY 4/6

£4.00 Place Bet PROTAGONIST 1/1 +






Southwell 2.55

11/4 What A Glance, 7/2 Bembridge
7/2 Ten Past Midnight, 9/2 Methusalar, 7/1 Black Ebony,
15/2 The Yellow Mini.

Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Some of these look vulnerable

THE YELLOW MINI a 3yo filly
Taking on older male hurdlers
Could fail her on several angles

September to December
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 1f and more
Horses aged 3 of any sex
Coming from 2m 1f or shorter
Have a 0-49 record in them
THE YELLOW MINI fails this
Beaten 19 lengths 9 days ago
Hardly tempts me to rethink
THE YELLOW MINI is unsafe

BLACK EBONY has 329 days off
Not a safe profile with his weight

TEN PAST MIDNIGHT is a 5yo
Comes here trying to land hat trick
Not a negative but also no positive 
Not coming up 4f in distance here
His class may also be a concern
TEN PAST MIDNIGHT is rated 86
His rivals rated 110 109 106 105 99
All are rated significantly higher
He gets weight because of that
But he is the worst horse in this

BEMBRIDGE is a 5 year old
Seasonal debut was 26 days ago
Beaten 34 lengths in that handicap
Not really a safe enough profile
The small field increases his chance
But can not match him to a winner

Prefer the chances of two others
A potential improver from Alan King
Saving on a the standard setter

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet METHUSALAR 4/1-7/2

£2.50 Win Bet WHAT A GLANCE 5/2-3/1







Wolverhampton 4.00

2/1 New Mission, 4/1 Superior Force, 9/2 Box To Box
6/1 Ephrata, 8/1 Eddie The Beagle, 10/1 Young Winston
16/1 Already Gone, Tropez Power.

9f Nursery

NEW MISSION is topweight

Godolphin horse in a handicap

You can look at his figures
Argue he is not thrown in
But I think he should win it

Beaten favourite last time
But that was a Grade 1 track
He started favourite that day
He has 60 days off the track
Was having his handicap debut
He made the running as well
Creditable and understandable run

There are dangers
BOX TO BOX could be one
If he does win this 1m 1f race
He will be the first 2yo by Kodiac
Who has won over 9f and more
And this is an extended 9f as well
EPHRATA a filly from a top yard
More exposed has not clicked yet
She could win of she does that
I think we can give her weight
YOUNG WINSTON looks beatable
Exposed and coming up 2 furlongs

Just prefer the class horse
Who I felt had solid excuses
And more improvement to come

Selection

NEW MISSION 6/4

Win Bet


 


Wolverhampton 6.00

9/4 Mondammej, 3/1 Exalted Angel
9/2 Blue De Vega 6/1 Venturous, 8/1 Fizzy Feet
14/1 Royal Birth, 20/1 Marnie James.

MONDAMMEJ

5f Handicap (Class 2)

Has the fittest profile

That's what I want over 5f

Gets him onto the staking

EXALTED ANGEL has 1 run in 171 days

VENTUROUS an 8yo absent 66 days

FIZZY FEET is mare off 114 days

ROYAL BIRTH is a 10 year old
He lacks a recent run in weeks
And horses with under 8st 10bs
Have a 0-35 record in similar races

MARNIE JAMES also fails this angle
And has ran only once in 262 days

BLUE DE VEGA may be a threat
He was just behind Mondammej 
When he last raced 33 days ago


BLUE DE VEGA as topweight

He will appreciate a small field
And the ease in grade as well
Won at Doncaster 2 runs ago
Badly drawn at Sandown last time
Missed the break from a high draw

BLUE DE VEGA loves small fields

His record in Handicaps

With over 10 runners is 0-20

His record July onwards

In fields of under 11 is 9-27 
 
At the prices
Saving on the favourite
Going with the better price

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet BLUE DE VEGA 13/2-7/1

£4.00 Win Bet MONDAMMEJ 13/8-7/4






  
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  


Saturday

Newbury 3.00

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase 

5/1 Ontheropes 11/2 Eklat de Rire 11/2 Enrilo
6/1 Fiddlerontheroof 9/1 Kitty's Light 12/1 Demachine
12/1 Cloth Cap 14/1 Remastered 16/1 Potterman
25/1 Copperhead 25/1 Brahma Bull 25/1 Chris's Dream
25/1 The Hollow Ginge 25/1 Brave Eagle 25/1 Annamix
33/1 Full Back 33/1 Mister Malarky 33/1 Cloudy Glen
33/1 Danny Whizzbang 33/1 Canelo 40/1 Fortescue
50/1 One More Fleurie

22 runners left in this race
Declarations on Thursday

Doing this race this afternoon
Full preview should be done
Likely to include it tomorrow
Depends on what I end up with
Whether there could be any bet

I do have a theory in this race
Will explain this in the preview
May well end up debunking it
But if I'm right about this angle
We could have a big priced bet

The Irish favourites in the race
Maybe hard to avoid statistically
Need to see if I can oppose them
If not the shortlist could be busy





A PLUS TARD


Won Saturday's Betfair Chase

An impressive 22 length victory

He is now the new 7/2 favourite

For the Cheltenham's Gold Cup

Saturdays win 
Racing Post Rating of 180 
That just feels too high to me
Over time Racing Post Ratings 
End up in an inflationary spiral

Said the same thing back in 2017
Bristol De Mai won the same race
Was given a ridiculous 185 figure
They later had to downgrade this

He beat very little on Saturday

Older horses with long absences 
Bristol De Mai one hating ground 
Waiting Patiently another flopped
It was a very poor Grade 1 race
I struggled to find any selection

Another thing he beat Saturday 
Was my Kapgarde breeding stat

Not at all surprised he did that
As he had very little to beat him

Re-watched last years Gold Cup
Still feel he didn't quite stay 3m 2f
When we come round to Match
He will fail another breeding stat

No horse sired Kapgarde
Have won in Listed/Graded races
Running over 3m 2f or more before

The direct comparison

Paul Nicholls - Clan Des Obeaux
 
Twice won the King George (3m)
Twice was a Gold Cup non stayer
Shares the same sire Kapgarde

A PLUS TARD has been second
So we are talking tight margins
But he could not win in last year
Against a field of ageing horses
He may finish 2nd or 3rd in 2022

Ruby Walsh

Seems to agree with me

Tweeting after the race

Walsh said the following

" A Plus Tard was superb and will again 
  place in the Gold Cup, I'd love to see him 
  in the Aintree Bowl though in which nothing
  would beat him there."

Interesting he said "place" and not "win"

Thats the position I am taking with him




March 18th 2022

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Betfair Prices 

7/2 A Plus Tard, 6/1 Minella Indo, 10/1 Envoi Allen
14/1 Chantry House, 20/1 Al Boum Photo, 20/1 Galvin
33/1 Champ 33/1  Eklat de Rire 

 
MINELLA INDO won last year

A PLUS TARD finished second

They beat an ageing field there

AL BOUM PHOTO was in third
Next year he will be a 10 year old

Horses aged 10 or more
Have a 0-81 record since 1999
Have a 1-110 record since 1992

AL BOUM PHOTO will fail this
CHAMP will also be a 10 year old
 
A PLUS TARD

Discussed earlier

Is the horse of the moment
Suspect he will be 2nd or 3rd 

MINELLA INDO won last year

He is not the horse of focus
As he was beaten first time out
That should not be a surprise

Finished 3rd at Downpatrick
Beaten 5 lengths by Frodon
Some see that as a poor run

For me the significant issue
Ruby Walsh said after the race
MINELLA INDO was just not fit
Implied he was fat as a pig there
His job is to be race fit in March
You can ignore his defeat there 
His job is just to defend his title

MINELLA INDO

He is 11/2 to win the Gold Cup

That is worth a saver bet now

If I was staking £10 on the race

I would put £1.50 on his now
Simply buy him out of the race 

Far too early for selections
Far too early for big stakes
So much can still go wrong 
But that looks a good strategy

If everything turns up
Fit and well and at their best
I'd want him as a saver at least

ENVOI ALLEN will be an 8yo
He has had 6 chase runs now
I won't have a statistical issue
But feel he has plenty to prove

Not least with his pedigree
His sire was simply a flat miler
If you look at his sires record

His horses in Listed/Grade class
Have not yet won beyond 2m 5f

 If you take out Hunter Chases
None have won beyond 2m 6f
When running in Class 2 or higher
Come the day that is a pedigree
That will stop me selecting him

CHANTRY HOUSE will be an 8yo
He has had 10 lifetime runs now

Past Gold Cup winners
Had the following lifetime runs
12 12 20 16 26 9 15 11 18 17 15 30 13 20   

He should go there with 11-12 races 
Don't have a problem with his profile
So I would keep him onside right now
Especially as he is a festival winner

ECLAT DE RIRE is too raw
Just 6 career runs 
Just 4 chase runs
Not interested in him


GALVIN

He is around 20/1

That looks a big price to me
He is another festival winner
Don't see him as too exposed
He has had 18 career starts
He will be fine with under 21
 
Strong Racing Post Ratings 
Which are also progressive 

On his seasonal debut
He was 2nd to Frodon
Minella Indo was in 3rd

No reason he can't improve
He also looks too big at 20/1 
May even win the National

Looking at the Gold Cup

GALVIN at 20/1

Worth a small interest bet now

MINELLA INDO at 6/1

Looks an ante post saver 
 
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