6 Previews
0 Bet Today 
 
 
No Staked Bet

  



Today's Best Bet

 
Carlisle 4.40

£7 Win Bet ASHFIELD PADDY 7/2

£3 Win Bet STYLE IT OUT 11/4 






Today's Message


Shorter realistic Sunday 

With 5 meetings to cover

The clocks going forward
Losing that extra 1hr time 
Makes a very big difference
Best not to get aggressive





Each Way Double options

Naas 2.15 - Montego Bay 2/1-9/4

Doncaster 2.30 - Alpha King 7/4-2/1

Naas 4.35 - Ahandfulofsummers 2/1-9/4

Decided not to be tempted
With any of these dirty bets
Keep out of that rabbit hole  



Best Bet ?

Think its one of 3 softer races



Naas 4.00

PARENT'S PRAYER 7/2-100/30

Each Way

Too much aggravation with her
She is already under the odds
Any non runner and we get done
And the price will be hard to get




Ascot 3.55 

£7.50 Win Bet SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 4/1

£2.50 Win Bet ACTIVIAL 3/1

Veterans Chase


Betting the profile horse
And the last time figure horse
On paper we should be winning
But these are ageing warriors
Any could come back to form





Today's Best Bet
 
 
Carlisle 4.40

£7 Win Bet ASHFIELD PADDY 7/2

£3 Win Bet STYLE IT OUT 11/4 

   
The Irony

Day two of the flat season
Discussing the Guineas later

Yet the best bet is a hurdler
God forbid trained by Jonjo



Very similar strategy

To yesterdays main bet

Opposing a favourite

Cornering the class 2 horses

Saving on the shorter price

Betting the topweight

In the hope he outclasses them
Decided not to stake this

Bit of price pressure at 4/1-7/2

By the time most are out of bed

This could be a shorter price

And the 4th favourite is a spoiler
Who I can not rule out confidently







Preview Selections

 
Naas 2.50
£6.50 Win Bet Sounds Of Spring 8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Half Nutz 12/1
£2.50 Place Bet Arcanears 3/1

Ascot 3.55 
£7.50 Win Bet Singlefarmpayment 4/1
£2.50 Win Bet Activial 3/1
 
Naas 4.00
Parent's Prayer 7/2
Each Way

Naas 4.35
Ahandfulofsummers 9/4-5/2
Win Bet

Carlisle 4.40
£7 Win Bet Ashfield Paddy 4/1-7/2
£3 Win Bet Style It Out 11/4

Doncaster 4.50
£4.00 Each Way - Alben Spirit 8/1-9/1
£1.00 Win Bet - Lexington Dash 8/1-9/1
£1.00 Win Bet - Texting 8/1-9/1
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5






Yesterday's Review 
  
Quite a long and detailed message
Beginning first with the staked bet
We were certainly on the right lines
Spilt stake the winners and second
The saver bet Leostar won the race
The main bet Scoop The Pot second
Wrong way round but that was likely
We went for the riskier bigger return
But we retained most of our stakes
Think there was a lot of quality work
Too many places not enough winners
Many of them were in very hard races
A higher strike rate was never in play
The usual inevitable disappointments
Summerghand never gave confidence
Have my suspicions about his running
Visibility in the last was so frustrating
Looked the winner matched at 11/10  
Somehow managed to miss the place
Reared at the starts and slowly away
Did the start cost him in the final push
Did his last run come too soon for him
Not sure but he looked like the winner
He was my lowest part of the message
The Lincoln winner went to our saver
The other half bet in it was withdrawn
Would have liked to see more winners
But happy with the range and choices
Especially a first flat message in ages
And the main bet had a clear strategy
Don't think we did much wrong there
Overall felt we deserved a little more




PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Naas 2.50

3/1 Forest Of Dreams, 4/1 Power Under Me
8/1 Sounds Of Spring, 10/1 Pretty Boy Floyd
10/1 Tide Of Time, 14/1 Arcanears, 14/1  Fastar
14/1 Rough Diamond, 16/1 Eastern Voice, 16/1 Half Nutz
16/1 Only Spoofing, 16/1 Royal Canford, 16/1 Zig Zag Zyggy
20/1 Castletownshend, Texas Rock, 25/1 Chessman
25/1 Mokhalad, Royal Pippen, 66/1 Double Kodiac.
 
6f Handicap

79 similar races
 
FASTAR won this last year
Younger and with less weight
This year he is a 7 year old

March and April
Have 79 similar races
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 8 weeks
Have a miserable 1-131 record
The following horses fail this

MOKHALAD
TIDE OF TIME
ONLY SPOOFING
FASTAR
CHESSMAN


FOREST OF DREAM is a 3yo
POWER UNDER ME is a 3yo

Both from top class stables
But it is a bit early for a 3yo
 
Go back to 1998

March and April
6f handicaps (Turf)
Class 4 and higher
Horses aged 3
Have a 0-60 record

POWER UNDER ME a 3yo
He fails this 0-60 angle
He has raced just once in his career
Has a long break and 9st 7lbs as well
Can not risk him on that profile
FOREST OF DREAM is a 3yo 
He also fails this 0-60 angle
Obviously the problem here
Aidan O'Brien trains him 
Nobody will be shocked if he wins
My angles suggest the 0-60 profile
Is the reason he probably wont
EASTERN VOICE is another 3yo
Rejected on this 0-60 statistic
 
TEXAS ROCK is a 10yo
Happy to avoid on his last run
DOUBLE KODIAC may lack class
ROYAL PIPPIN an unlikely winner
CASTLETOWNSHEND is a 6yo
Needs a career best after a break

PRETTY BOY FLOYD is unsafe
He is coming up from a 5f race
Just 1 run this season as well
He faces a short 7 day absence
Could be vulnerable to bouncing
Has a very inexperienced jockey

ROYAL CANFORD is unsafe
She is an older exposed 5yo mare
Never won off a rating this high
With a long break she is rejected

ROUGH DIAMOND is a 4 year old
Bit inexperienced with 3 races
On this ground with his weight
From his sire as well rather risky

Shortlist

ZIG ZAG ZIGGY is first time out
Could win if he is fit enough

HALF NUTZ won first time last year
We were following him for a while
Excuses in his last 2 runs in  2020
No surprise if he takes this

SOUND OF SPRINGS is a 4yo
With 5 runs he looks a positive
Same profile as the 2017 winner

ARCANEARS 

Not overkeen he comes from 5f
Work to do from stall 18 as well
But he has history in this race

2nd in the 2019 renewal
4th  in the 2020 renewal
Both times off higher ratings 
Both times with longer absences

Going to make him a place saver
Rather than the outright selection
Because of this draw statistic

Naas

5f 6f 7f races 
Any type of race
Any class of race
Since 2009
Horses aged 6 or more
Drawn in stall15 or higher
Have a 0-59 record in them
ARCANEARS fails this angle
But with good history in this
He may have enough to place

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet SOUND OF SPRINGS 8/1
 
£2.50 Place Bet ARCANEARS 3/1

£1.00 Win Bet HALF NUTZ  12/1








Ascot 3.55

11/4 Crosspark, 7/2 Activial, 4/1 Present Man
9/2 Singlefarmpayment, 5/1 West Approach
10/1 Royal Vacation, 20/1 Outlander.

Veterans Chase

7 runners

All past winners were under 13
OUTLANDER is the only teenager
Rejected absent over 12 months

Past winners
Had the following runs this season
4 6 6 3 3 5 6 6 4 9 

Non have won with under 3 runs
Some of these look short of runs
ACTIVIAL has ran twice in a year
All past winners had more races
ROYAL VACATION is underraced
He has 1 run in the last 12 months

CROSSPARK has enough runs
But he pulled up last time out
Horses doing that are 0-21 in this
He also ran in the Eider Chase
Pulled up before the last fence
That race takes a lot out of a horse
No guarantee he will recover here

The Veterans Chase
Run 22 days ago at Newbury
One of the best pointers for this
Horses from that race are 3-12
Winning this in 2010 2011 2017
That record could improve here

3 horses came from that race
 
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT was 5th
WEST APPROACH was 6th
PRESENT MAN was in 7th

The 3 past winners
Coming from this Newbury race
Finished 5th 6th and 8th in that
So there are some similarities

WEST APPROACH lost 60 lengths there
Beaten further than those from the race
PRESENT MAN was beaten 81 lengths
He has raced only once in 130 days now

SINGLEFARMPAYMENT

Looks the most suitable candidate
Going to have a  saver bet as well
As none of these are trustworthy

That saver goes on the horse
Who may be short of races this year
But has the best last time out figure
As it is miles clear of the others

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 4/1

£2.50 Win Bet ACTIVIAL 3/1








Naas 4.00

2/1 Eylara, 7/2 Fantasy Lady, 9/2 Epona Plays
5/1 Parent's Prayer, 13/2 Tartlette, 12/1 Pronouncement
25/1 Sziget, 66/1 Sasta.

Express Stakes

Fillies Group race 8f

Trappy little race

Used to be run at the Curragh
Switched to Naas 4 years ago

FANTASY LADY is an option
Not for me sired by Dark Angel 
First horse cut on Oddschecker
Is that because she was backed
Or do they want you to think that ? 
Don't want to trust her sire here
Dark Angel has bred some winners
Over a mile or more in this class
But none that had a long absence
Without at least 5 previous races

Seasonal debutants usually win
TARTLETTE has ran this season
Lots to prove up from a handicap
PRONOUNCEMENT lots to prove
Can not be sure she will stay 8f
She is weak on breeding statistics
Neither of the outsiders appeal

EYLARA could be the one
There has been 3yo winners
Who have raced just twice before

PARENT'S PRAYER is a positive
Archie Watson has a good record
When sending fillies to Ireland
Especially in pattern races like this
He did it with this horse in October
He won a listed race at this track
You'd think she was here to win 
If not he may have stayed at home
Finding it hard to see 3 to beat her

Selection

PARENT'S PRAYER 7/2-100/30

Each Way






Naas 4.35
 
15/8 Ahandfulofsummers, 3/1 Empress Josephine
6/1 Tareya, 13/2 Blazing Star, 12/1 Fermoy, New York Angel
12/1 Walk This Way, 14/1 La Petite Coco, 20/1 Beagnach Sasta
25/1 Flagged, New Appointment, Sheishybrid, Vera Verto
50/1 Cloch Liath, Miss March, Rusla, Social Distance
66/1 Marketta, 200/1 Lucky Crown.

Fillies Maiden 8f

Big field
Lots of deadwood

AHANDFULOFSUMMERS can win
Sets the standard on her third run
Racing Post Rating of 98 there

Some of her rivals have doubts

TAREYA is unraced 
BLAZING STAR is unraced
Both sired by Dark Angel

Dark Angel Fillies
Having their racecourse debuts
Running over 7f and more
Facing Good or softer ground
Return a 0-74 record so far
TAREYA fails this 0-74 statistic
BLAZING STAR fails it as well
LA PETITE COCO is unsafe
Coming from a fast ground sire
FERMOY is just rated too low
FLAGGED is unraced drawn high
Not sure on pedigree to stay on debut
One or two unraced darker types
Could pop up unexpectedly here

EXPRESS JOSEPHINE is unraced
Expect this horse to be the danger

AHANDFULOFSUMMERS with 4 runs
And smart numbers is the selection

Because of a gamble in the race
You could consider him each way 


Selection

AHANDFULOFSUMMERS 9/4-5/2

Win Bet

or

Each Way







Carlisle 4.40

7/4 Storm Nelson, 5/2 Style It Out
11/4 Ashfield Paddy, 8/1 Presentedwithwings
10/1 Seven Eye Bridge.

Handicap hurdle 3m 1f

STORM NELSON won last time
That was over 2m and 4 furlongs
He has raced once in 14 months
Going up 5f in distance
With just 1 run in that period
Could well catch him out here

Past winners
Had the following runs that season
6 7 6 7 0 9
Aside from a seasonal debutant 9yo
None had under 6 runs that season
STORM NELSON has this challenge

March and April
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 3m and more
Since 2010

Horses from 2m 4f or shorter
Aged 7 or more
Just 1 run that season
Have a 5-93 record
Those with over 5 hurdle runs
Have a 0-61 record in these races
STORM NELSON with 7 runs fails this

PRSENTENTEDWITHWINGS a 7yo
Has a chance but others are stronger
Has work to do on his numbers

STYLE IT OUT is a mare
Won 15 days ago on a hat trick
Enough to make the shortlist
But she only has 5 career runs
Would have been happier with more

If we save on her
ASHFIELD PADDY can be the main bet
Then we corner the two class horses
Both rated 123 and 121
Only have a 0-115 to beat

ASHFIELD PADDY drops in class
He ran in a far better race last time
His last 2 runs were better grade
Every chance or outclassing these

Selection

£7 Win Bet ASHFIELD PADDY 4/1-9/2

£3 Win Bet STYLE IT OUT 11/4 






Doncaster 4.50

5/1 Lincoln Park, 8/1 Wentworth Falls, 10/1 Alben Spirit
10/1 Texting, 11/1 Shallow Hal, 12/1 Dick Datchery
12/1 Lexington Dash, 14/1 Gunmetal, 14/1 Highly Sprung
14/1 Muscika, Rathbone, True Mason, 16/1 Astro Jakk
20/1 George Bowen, Mid Winster  
25/1 Green Power, Marly.
 
6f Handicap
  
Horses aged 9 or more
Have not won this race before
They score badly in similar races 
Opposing this age group

WENTWORTH FALLS is a 9yo
Did not run well enough last time
GEORGE BOWEN is a 9 year old
First time out and badly drawn in 16

Against the very high draws
If they have long absences
 
Doncaster
All 5f and 6f races 
Since 2009 
Horses absent over 8 weeks
Drawn 17 or higher
Have a 0-48 record in them 
ASTRO JACK fails this drawn 18
 
MARLY is the wrong type of 4yo


15 Past renewals

Horses aged 6 or more
Have won this race 3 times
They all had recent races

Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 7 weeks
Have a 0-91 record in this race

HIGHLY SPRUNG fails this
MUSCIKA also fails this angle
He is on a career high mark
GEORGE BOWEN also fails it
GREEN POWER is unsafe
Coming up from a 5f race

TRUE MASON may need a run
Well treated but a long absence
All his best figures are in summer
MID WINSTER is a mare first time out
SHALOW HAL has topweight
Career high mark with 54 days off
Don't think he will have enough

GUNMETAL is 8 years old
Would rather have a younger horse
Go back 20 years at this meeting
All Doncaster Handicaps any trip
Horses aged 8 or more
Carrying 8st 7lbs or less
Have a 0-84 record since 1997
Do we really want an 8yo lightweight ?

Possibles

LINCOLN PARK won 12 days ago
Hard to know if this comes too soon
Respected but going elsewhere
His 6f numbers on good or better
Not as good as his soft ground ones


RATHBONE has positives
But he has a 0-20 record now
In fields of 10 or more runners
And his trainer is hard to trust

TEXTING is a mare
Not ideal but can not rule her out
Dangerous with 2 recent runs
Past 4yo winners

Had  20 10 10 3 10 career runs

Interesting 3 had exactly 10 runs 
That kind of area may be helpful

ALBEN SPIRIT has 10 runs
LEXINGTON DASH has 11 runs
DICK DATCHERY has 11 runs

These all look suitable profiles
DICK DATCHERY is badly drifting
Danger he may need this race

ALBEN SPIRIT looks ideal
But his trainer is hard to trust
He did not start yesterday too well
And he is drawn very low as well
But unexposed and still interesting
This could be his best distance

LEXINGTON DASH is a positive
Came to hand early last season

Prefer this pair
No strong preference which one

Selection

£4.00 Each Way ALBEN SPIRIT 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet LEXINGTON DASH 8/1 

£1.00 Win Bet TEXTING 8/1-9/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5



 
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 



The Week Ahead

Not the busiest of weeks

Limited number of fixtures

So want to use this column

For lots of Ante Post work





Irish National

Pencilled in for tomorrow

Ahead of the Novelty bet 
With the Aintree National




Salford City

Imploding still
New managers first game
Tight away defeat Saturday
Seems to lack any charisma
Dreams already evaporated
Have you noticed recently
Since I gave up on the fight
My form has improved a lot




Aidan O'Brien

Stable tours are out

As ever he says a lot
And says nothing at all
In terms of the classics
Especially the guineas
Want to make progress

Aidan has the 1000 favourite

She looks statistically traped

As I hope to illustrate below





Newmarket

1000 Guineas

Santa Barbara 7/2 Pretty Gorgeous 7/1 Indigo Girl 12/1
Shale 12/1 Alcohol Free 16/1 Joan Of Arc 16/1
Love Is You 16/1 Mother Earth 16/1 Saffron Beach 16/1
Monday 20/1 Snow Lantern 20/1 Fev Rover 25/1
Isabella Giles 25/1 Kestenna 25/1 Lucid Dreamer 25/1
Monsoon Moon 25/1 Queen's Speech 25/1 Sea Empress 25/1
Zeyaadah 25/1


SANTA BARBARA 7/2

Aidan O'Brien

Unusually for the master

Been singing her praises
In his recent stable tour 



“She’s done unbelievably well in physical terms
  over the winter. She looks like a five-year-old colt
  She goes through her work unbelievably well 
  She shows loads of speed and always worked 
  with an awful lot of class. Whether we start her 
  in the Leopardstown Guineas trial or go straight
  to the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, we haven’t 
  decided yet. We won’t over-race her, we’ll keep 
  her runs to a minimum if we can, but she shows 
  an unbelievable amount of class at home. In terms 
  of her stamina, she’s by Camelot, so that will give 
  her a chance to stay a mile-and-a-quarter or maybe 
  further, but she does show a lot of pace. Looked 
  very pacey on her debut and she does that at home 
  all the time. She just toys with horses in her work
  We’re very excited by her. "


Unusually bullish


No wonder after this came out
SANTA BARBARA was gambled
Backed last week 10/1 to 3/1
The problem here though
She may be statistically trapped


SANTA BARBARA has 1 run

Past 1000 Guineas winners
Had the following career runs 
9 4 5 5 4 7 13 3 5 2 8 5 6 5 5 4 2 3 3 7 4

No recent winner 
Has won this race with just 1 run
If she goes straight to Newmarket
She will be very inexperienced
Trying to become the first winner
In Decades with just 1 career race
Possible big field and a draw bias 
SANTA BARBARA may be vulnerable

However

If she has a prep run
The Leopardstown Guineas trial 
Has been suggested as 1 option

Then she will fail this statistic
A long established Guineas stat
Works in both the 1000 and 2000

 
1000 and 2000 Guineas

Both races since 1989

Horses with 1 run as a 3yo
Having under 3 career starts
Are 0-67 record in both classics


SANTA BARBARA fails this angle



JOAN OF ARC
If she does not run again before
Will also fail this 0-67 statistic



SANTA BARBARA

Will be paying the price
For having just 1 run last season
Statistically that is a big problem
Whether she runs before or not


Right now

With 35 days to go

PRETTY GORGEOUS 6/1 (Joseph)
INDIGO GIRL 12/1 (Gosden)
 
Far safer profile than the favourite
  
This is the hardest classic by far 
Too early to know running plans 
Reluctant to give any opinion now

In time I may well be very tempted
With INDIGO GIRL as the win bet
PRETTY GORGEOUS as a saver

But there is very little chatter
About running plans in this race
Would not presume both will run

INDIGO GIRL 

She is a full sister to Journey
Who never raced over a mile
And was a middle distance type
Gosden could easily reroute her

SHALE is another option
Not keen she is a small horse
But her mother won this race
And was also underesized as well

PRETTY GORGEOUS

Could be the one 
But maybe best to wait for trials

Who knows
In time we may decide
Santa Barbara whilst a negative
Could be the best place saver

The purpose of this piece
Not to try and guess the winner

But just to make an observation

Santa Barbara ante post favourite

Looks to be statistically trapped

*********************************************************
*********************************************************