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Today's Message
     
 
Stepping back today
Covered just the 4 races
All 4 are at Punchestown  

Today's English meetings
Quite bland and ordinary 

There are 3 sand meetings
I feel out of touch on sand
Lacking any recent practice
So going to bypass them all
 
We took liberties yesterday
Bits of that so unnecessary
Got punished and spanked
So this is a far quieter day
One I am just sidestepping



The first race
Maybe too optimistic
Probably wont make money

Have some fair chances

In the Cross Country

In the Stayers Hurdle

In the final Handicap

But unfortunately

Has to be a quiet day



Today's Best Bet


Punchestown 4.50

£7 Win Bet SPACE CADET 13/2-7/1 

£3 Win Bet SOME NECK  5/2






Preview Selections  

 
Punchestown 3.40
£2.50 Each Way Final Orders 16/1
£2.00 Each Way Back On The Bridle 25/1
£1.00 Win Bet Misty Millie 14/1

Punchestown 4.50
£7 Win Bet Space Cadet 6/1-7/1 
£3 Win Bet Some Neck 5/2

Punchestown 5.25
£3.50 Each Way French Dynamite 12/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Flooring Porter 2/1

Punchestown 6.00
Max Flamingo 10/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6 




Yesterday's Review

Step backwards on a poor day
A few races were unnecessary
King Of Tomorrow one of them
He clearly disliked something
It was only the place bet at 7pm
That prevented a no return day
Apollo One and saver best bet
When an each way bet is fourth
And the saver bet finishes 2nd
You suspect it is not your day
Very hard to find any positives
But when I lose time in the day
With things like hospital trips
It can often affect the next day
So I am putting it down to that
One off dud to forget about
 



PROFILES & PREVIEWS    




Punchestown 3.40

9/2 Five Helmets, 7/1 Whatsinthecorner, 8/1 Ena Baie
8/1 Rock Chica, 9/1 Golf Marin, 12/1 Charcor
14/1 Back On The Bridle, 14/1 Scalor, 14/1 Shakeytry
14/1 Silver Star, 16/1 Coole Arcade, Cousin Harry, 
14/1 Jiving Jerry, Misty Millie, 20/1 Youngnedofthehill
22/1 Final Orders, Lusis Naturea, 25/1 Flindt, Karawaan
28/1 Dollar Value, Golden Spear, 33/1 Atalanta's Gold
50/1 Ghost Serge. 

Handicap Hurdle 2m

The last 11 winners
Had the same profile

Over 6 lifetime starts
Between 4 and 12 hurdle runs
Running within the last 45 days
Coming from a hurdle race
Beaten under 15 lengths in it

Horses with under 7 runs
Have a 0-52 record in this race
GOLF MARIN only has 4 races
Comfortably the least experienced

Horses with under 4 hurdle runs
Have a 0-44 record in this race
CHARCOR fails this with 3 runs

Horses with over 12 hurdle runs
Have a 0-50 record in this race 
Several of these look exposed 
WHATSINTHECORNER has 24 runs
He also has a long 182 day absence  
JIVING JERRY has 17 hurdle starts

Horses beaten 15 + lengths
On their last runs are 0-94 in this
Several already rejected fail this
COOLE ARCADE another that does

Punchestown Festival
Every handicap hurdle
Horses from a chase
Those running within 60 days
Have a 0-160 record in them
SHAKETRY fails this angle


The following horses
Fit the strongest profiles
  
9/2 Five Helmets,  
8/1 Ena Baie, 
8/1 Rock Chica, 
14/1 Back On The Bridle, 
14/1 Scalor,   
 22/1 Final Orders, 

SCALOR looks wrong
Racing once since November

ENA BAIE has a tough weight
Horses with 11st 7lbs or more
Have a 1-36 record in the race
She looks a mare short of runs
Having raced once in 123 days
And racing twice in 15 months

FIVE HELMETS has topweight
Improving 5yo but lots to prove
He fails this interesting statistic
 
Punchestown
All Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
February to May
Horses aged 5
Over 4 career starts
Absent more than 17 days
Return a 0-148 record
FIVE HELMETS has this profile 
That and his weight worries me
 
ROCK CHICA is a 4yo filly
None have won any handicap
At this festival at any distance


Shortlist

MISTY MILLIE 14/1
BACK ON THE BRIDLE 33/1
FINAL ORDERS 16/1 
 
MISTY MILLIE a very exposed mare
Gets a pass with a very recent run
Something often rewarded in this

FINAL ORDERS has a recent run
That was in an all weather race 
But that may be a good advantage
 
The 2014 2015 2017 2019 winners
 
All ran within 10 days
Were all aged under 6 
And 3 like him were 5yo's
One came from a flat race
 
BACK ON THE BRIDLE 
Harder to make a case for
But she too has a recent run
The 5yo mares that win here
All did so with very recent runs


Selection

£2.50 Each Way FINAL ORDERS 16/1

£1.00 Each Way BACK ON THE BRIDLE 25/1

£1.00 Win Bet MISTY MILLIE 14/1




Punchestown 4.50

3/1 Some Neck, 4/1 Alpha Des Obeaux
5/1 Stand Up And Fight, 13/2 Blue Templar, 8/1 Space Cadet
10/1 Ballyboker Bridge, 12/1 Major Destination, 14/1 Call It Magic
25/1 Classic Concorde, 25/1 Singing Banjo 33/1 King's Song
66/1 Michael's Pick, 100/1 Like A Demon.
 
La Touche Cup 

Cross Country Chase 4m 2f

ALPHA DES OBEAUX
Ran a good 11th in Aintree's National
But because of that he is rejected

Go back to 1997 
April and May
Any and every kind of race
Horses from Aintree's National
Finishing the race at Aintree
Running in the last 45 days
Have a 0-68 record since 1997 
This surely comes too quickly
ALPHA DES OBEAUX is rejected

Horses absent over 51 days
Have a 1-48 record in past renewals
BALLBROKER BRIDGE 74 days off
Looks unsafe as a 14 year old
MAJOR DESTINATION has 74 days off
Comes from a weak sire as well

BLUE TEMPLAR is a 10yo
He is stepping up 14f in distance
Uncomfortable with that profile
 
CALL IT MAGIC has a chance
But has to prove he can stay

STAND UP AND FIGHT may win
But horses from Hunter Chases
Have a 0-16 record in this race
The best trial race
Cheltenham's Cross Country
SOME NECK was 3rd in that race
That gets him on the shortlist

SPACE CADET is running well
Enough to make the shortlist 

Shortlist

SOME NECK 
SPACE CADET

Selection
 
£7 Win Bet SPACE CADET 6/1-7/1

£3 Win Bet SOME NECK 5/2




Punchestown 5.25

7/4 Flooring Porter, 6/1 Beacon Edge, Ronald Pump
7/1 The Storyteller, 9/1 Fury Road, 16/1 French Dynamite
16/1 Sole Pretender, 20/1 Diol Ker, Heaven Help Us
20/1 James Du Berlais, 20/1  Klassical Dream
33/1 Bacardys, Saldier, 50/1 Agrapart.

Stayers Hurdle

FLOORING PORTER 

Won the Cheltenham's stayers
Not yet a fashionable horse
But there is good time for that
Shortlisted on that achievement

BEACON EDGE was in 4th
THE STORYTELLER in 5th

BEACON EDGE sired by Doyen
May have a stamina question 
His sires listed/graded winners
Have not yet won beyond 2m 5f 
  
Some of the others
Have something to question

SOLE PRETENDER underraced
Having just 1 run since 2019
He comes from a 2m race as well

The long absent winner
Won with a 68 day absence
RONALD PUMP has over twice that

Grade 1 hurdles
Any distance
Any time of year
With 10 + runners 
Horses with 10 + hurdle runs
Absent more than 80 days
Return a 0-47 record in them
RONALD PUMP fails this statistic

KLASSICAL DREAM has 487 days off  
HEAVEN HELP US unsafe from handicaps
  
FURY ROAD pulled up last time
He was hampered and had excuses
It was still a disappointing run though
And no winners failed to place last time
 
THE STORYTELLER is respected
Although he is now a 10 year old 
We have had a couple win recently
But he had a hard race at Cheltenham
I just prefer the horses 4 years younger  
 
FLOORING PORTER is a positive

FRENCH DYNAMITE
 
FRENCH DYNAMITE is a big price
He has to prove his stamina at 3m
If he does stay he has positives
Lightly raced and his type do well

Selection

£3.50 Each Way FRENCH DYNAMITE 12/1

£3.00 Win Bet FLOORING PORTER 2/1





Punchestown 6.00

 8/1 Capodanno, 10/1 Ben Dundee, 10/1 Ragnar Lodbrok
12/1 Botani, 12/1 Capilano Bridge, 12/1 Dallas Des Pictons
12/1 Floueur Lynwood Gold, Max Flamingo, 12/1 Minx Tiara, 
12/1 Pure Genius, 14/1 Ballywilliam Boy, Carrolls Cottage
16/1 Anything Will Do, Red Gerry, 16/1 Rhythm Divine
20/1 A Great View, 20/1 Baptism Of Fire, 20/1 Happy Jacky
20/1 Unowhatimeanharry, 20/1 Young Ted, 25/1 Morosini
25/1 Spades Are Trumps, 33/1  Wakea, 33/1 Jukebox Jive.

Handicap Hurdle 3m


Punchestown
All Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
February to May
Horses aged 5
Over 4 career starts
Absent more than 17 days
Return a 0-148 record

CAPODANNO fails this stat
Not by much but he fails it
RED GERRY also fails this

Past renewals suggest
We oppose the following types
 
Horses from a chase are 0-35
Horses with over 14 hurdle runs 0-31
Horses absent over 56 days are 0-51
Horses aged 10 or more are 0-25
Horses from 2m 3f or less are 0-46
Horses 20 + lengths last time are 0-65
Horses with 11st 9lbs or more are 0-17
Horses with over 18 career runs are 0-4
Horses from Class 2 handicaps are 0-47

Applying these angles
And one of other ones
Leaves me with this shortlist 
 
16/1 Anything Will Do
16/1 Carrolls Cottage
16/1 Ragnar Lodbrok 
12/1 Max Flamingo

We  have to guess from here

You could easily have savers
Just £1 on 3 of the shortlisted
Would still leave the freedom
To go each way on another
Just going for a single horse


Selection

MAX FLAMINGO 10/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6 






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES   


2000 Guineas

Update

4/1 Wembley 6/1 Thunder Moon 
7/1 Mutasaabeq 7/1 One Ruler 10/1 Master of The Seas 
11/1 St Mark's Basilica 12/1 Van Gogh 16/1 Chindit
25/1 Battleground 25/1 Lucky Vega 25/1 Poetic Flare


WEMBLEY

Current favourite

Emerging as Coolmore's number 1
Aidan O'Brien still has several here
Wembley his only runner under 10/1
So we can expect Ryan Moore to ride

No statistical problems
Similar profile to Churchill (2017)
Similar profile to Gleneagles (2011)

Both the above sired by Galileo
WEMBLEY this only on this year
That comes from this great sire 
So there are clearly positives

There are concerns as well
WEMBLEY has won once in 6 runs
Thats a worryingly low strike rate
The previous 10 Guineas winner
Won at least half their career runs

Some of his stablemates
Have been drifting this week
St Mark's Basilica is friendless
Battleground is now out to 28/1
He now looks an unlikely runner 

The draw released this morning 
That could influence the selection

ONE RULER

My ante post bet

When I suggested One Ruler  
Deliberately left room for a saver
Knowing that may be with Aidan
WEMBLEY looks a saver option
But there are others as well

I've cashed out the bet already
So no need to develop the bet 

Hands free to side with anything
Will know more after today's draw

Races always look different
When you get to the race day






Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022

Monkfish

He was beaten on Tuesday
Many people seem confident
He is still the future winner  

Others think he did not stay
There looks a genuine doubt
His sire stats don't stack up

Horses sired by Stowaway
Listed and Graded races
Running over 3m 1f or more
Have returned a 0-48 record

Appreciate this is not topical
But keep it in the memory bank
He is far from certain to stay







League 2

Salford City
 
With just 2 games to go
Having had a great run
Salford are in 7th place

If they can stay there
They make the play offs

They are 11/4 right now
To win it and get promoted 
They will probably manage it
Just peaking at the right time
Not conceded now in 4 games

If they get to Wembley again
They will have the advantage
They have played their twice
And have won both of those

 
 


Ante Post Options

2 Possible bets

One could be given Friday
This runs at the weekend
Will discuss this tomorrow
May be more a personal bet



The other option

Runs next week at Chester

If he runs in the Huxley Stakes


Chester

Next week

Always a busy week
Should be covering a lot
Easy meeting to find stats
Create them out of thin air
Found 3 Generics today
We can use these next week

3 Chester Generics

Chester races
Since 2013 
Any race
Any time of year
Any distance
Any Class
Horses drawn 11 or higher
Absent more than 25 days
Return a 0-151 record in them

Chester races
Since 2008
Any race
Any time of year
Any distance
Any Class
Horses aged 5 or more
Horses drawn 14 or higher
Have a 0-64 record

Chester races
Since 2008
Run over 1m 6f or less
Any time of year
Horses aged 5 or more
Absent more than 6 weeks
Drawn 8 or higher
Carrying 8st 1lbs or more
Have a 0-150 record in them





Chester Cup
   

Ante Post Statistics
 
Friday May 7th

Chester 2.45
 
4/1 Almighwar 8/1 Golden Rules 8/1 Elysian Flame
10/1 Future Investment 10/1 Rare Groove 10/1 Not So Sleepy
10/1 Stepney Causeway 12/1 Postileo 12/1 Who Dares Wins
14/1 The Grand Visir 14/1 Themaxwecan 14/1 Rajinsky
14/1 Lucky Deal 16/1 Monsieur Lambrays 16/1 Grandmaster Flash
16/1 Fox Vardy 16/1 Falcon Eight 16/1 Druid's Altar 16/1 Frankenstella
16/1 Trumpet Man 16/1 Cardano 16/1 Rochester House 16/1 Cleonte
16/1 Brasca 20/1 Nate The Great 20/1 Natural History 20/1 Mancini
20/1 Look My Way 20/1 Alright Sunshine 20/1 Hochfeld 20/1 Buriram
20/1 Indianapolis 20/1 Just Hubert 20/1 Ottonian 25/1 Mekong
25/1 Naturally High 25/1 Hiroshima 25/1 Hasanabad 25/1 Ernesto
25/1 Diocletain 25/1 Glencadam Glory 25/1 Speedo Boy
25/1 Author's Dream 25/1 Reshoun 25/1 Coeur de Lion
33/1 Mukha Magic 33/1 Always Resolute 33/1 Hydroplane
33/1 Imphal 33/1 Margaret Dumont 33/1 Green Book
33/1 Dancing Harry 33/1 Blakeney Point 33/1 Kangaroo Point
33/1 Byron Flyer 33/1 Charlie D 33/1 Ship of The Fen 33/1 Arabist
33/1 Clongowes 33/1 Red Derek 50/1 Bar

No horses aged 9 or more
Have won since at least 1975

Horses aged 8
Have a 1-49 record since 1998

Horses aged 7
They have a 4-56 record
They won off ratings of 88 93 87 99
Two were seasonal debutants
They won off marks of 88 and 93

Horses aged 6
Have an 9-96 record
Since the 2001 winner won off 113
The other 6 year olds won off these ratings
97 95 99 96 95 93 93 101
Seasonal debutants aged 6
Won this race in 2003 2013 2017 2018

Horses aged 5
Have a disappointing 3-95 record
Since 2007 this age are just 1-55
The only winner was in the 2014 race
Where there were 12 horses aged 5

Horses aged 4 are 6-86
They all has 9st or less weight
Horses aged 4 with over 9st are 0-18
They had 16 7 10 10 13 14 career starts
They were all drawn 11 or lower
Apart from the 2019 winner drawn 16

Since Rainbow High won 17 years ago
No horse has won rated 104 or more

Since 2002 horses with 9st 7lbs or more
Have recorded a 0-27 record in this race
 
Go back to 1999
Only 1 winner had under 10 runs
That was a Lightly raced 4yo winner
 
Horses aged 5 or more
Winning last time were 0-43
 
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