5 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Best Bet 


No Account Bet 

No Best Bet 


Not staking my best bet
Every chance it pulls out
Even if this does race
Very hard to get a bet on
Market is simply too weak
Leaving this one unstaked
Anyone prefering win only
Will be doing little wrong

 




Today's Racing  

   

The messages all this week
Have all been really positive
Today is the step backwards 
Wheels have come off a bit

Had to happen
Quite normal and expected
A bullish sign for tomorrow


There were 2 possibilities 
For the days strongest bet 

Predicting one will not race !

Predicting the other loses !


Gowran Park 2.38

WILD SHOT 5/2-11/4

Each Way



Ran very well yesterday
If he runs think he will win
He is running as I type this
But he could easily pull out
In the unlikely event be runs
He's my most confident bet


A good example

Of the wheels coming off



Gowran Park 1.30

Deliberately did not cover this
No preview for this race below
The second favourite at 3/1
Easca Peasca ran 15 days ago
Got hammered over 40 lengths
The combination of those issues
Has produced a horrific profile
Could have used a 0-648 angle
And opposed him in this hurdle
But despite 648 losing like him
Decided not to trust that angle
If he wins it I will be vindicated
If losing as the 0-648 suggests
Then it will be my bad mistake
But I decided not to touch this
Up to you if you are interested



Gowran Park 3.13

LUNASTAR 10/1-11/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


LUNASTAR interests me
Might be one run too soon
Might be winning next time
But he is the best of the rest

You could get a bigger price
This is not a strong selection
Second fiddle to Wild Shot

Not going to stake either

Need to clear my mind now

Tomorrow's message

Is already better than todays

Expecting a bloody battle

I'm betting both mentioned
But not interested in the rest

My biggest stake

Gowran Park 2.38

WILD SHOT 5/2-11/4
Each Way


 
Smaller Stake

LUNASTAR 11/1

Each Way





Preview Selections


Hexham 2.20
Gladiatorial 1/1 -11/10
Win Bet

Gowran Park 2.38
Wild Shot 5/2-11/4
Each Way

Fontwell 2.45
Keepyourdreamsbig 9/4-5/2 
Win Bet

Gowran Park 3.13
Lunastar 10/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Ascot 4.15
£2.50 Each Way Get Shirty 14/1  
£5.00 Place Bet Future Investment 1/1





Yesterday's Summary  
    
Professional set of results
Finishing L W P P W W W
Kept it tight never in trouble
Finished with 3 winning bets
Nothing too swashbuckling
But good safe staking really
More a bit of break building 
Could not suggest any bet
Lexis Dream maybe closest
Ran well grabbing his place 
Obviously reading races well



  


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


  

Hexham 2.20

11/10 Gladiatorial, 2/1 Bellaney Gem
12/1 Bob's Bar, 14/1 Who's The Guv'Nor
25/1 Dat'shallot, 40/1 Storm Lorenzo
66/1 Les's Legacy.


Novice Hurdle 2m

GLADITORIAL won last time
His 2nd win now a double penalty
But he has earnt both of those
And statistics consistently show
His type score highly in Novices

The main drawback
His jockey has a 0-36 record
But most of his rides were rags
None started shorter than 10/1
Riding most for a very small yard

BELLANEY GEM is a threat
But she is an 8 year old mare

July to December
Novice Hurdles under 2m 4f
Mares aged 8 or more
Have a winless 0-58 record

Going with the younger winner
One or two others could pop up
All relying on others to disappoint

Selection

GLADITORIAL 1/1 -11/10

Win Bet






Gowran Park 2.38

4/5 Lahinch Three, 11/4 The Greek, 7/2 Wild Shot
8/1 Cirque Royal, 10/1 Happaugue, 14/1 Gallic Boy
14/1 Still Standing, 20/1 Our Dylan, 66/1 Corbin
66/1 Kingoftheroses, 100/1 Delikklemunchkin
100/1 Weston Road, 200/1 Miala Araya
200/1 Naomh Moling, Only For Jenny, Shanylah.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Approached this race

With quite a lot of confidence

What the selection would be

The problem is

Equally confident he would not run

WILD SHOT ran well yesterday

Like him a lot
As I type he is still in the race
But could withdraw any moment

Maiden Hurdles
Any time of year
Any distance

Show horses aged 6 or more
Running the day before
Beaten under 5 lengths
Have a W W record from 2 trying

One was a 6yo who won
One was a 7yo who won

WILD SHOT can make it  3

THE GREEK has form
But down from 19f to 16f
May cause him difficulties
 
Will this trip be too sharp ?
Sire was a St Leger winner
Who won an Ascot Gold Cup 

Hurdlers
Sired by Leading Light
Running over 2m 1f and less
Have a poor 2-103 record
On Good to soft or faster 
They have a 0-65 record
This trip could be too sharp

LAHINCH THREE a 5yo
Has had no hurdling form 
WILD SHOT if he runs
Trumps him and the rest

Selection

WILD SHOT  5/2-11/4
Each Way






Fontwell 2.45

2/1The Yellow Mini, 2/1 Keepyourdreamsbig
3/1 George Bancroft, 14/1 Vunipola, 16/1 Cirrus.

Juvenile Hurdle

THE YELLOW MINI is a filly
Managed to win two runs ago
But it looked a soft race there
And her flat form was modest
Happy to oppose her as a filly
CIRRUS also rejected as a filly

KEEPYOURDREAMSBIG

Backed him at Worcester
Last time winner good profile
Started favourite last time out
Would rather rely on his profile
That the filly or an unraced hurdler
GEORGE BANCROFT is unraced
Has some decent flat form though
Could easily be the biggest threat
Staying with winning hurdle form

Selection

KEEPYOURDREAMSBIG 9/4-5/2

Win Bet








Gowran Park 3.13

5/1 Chrisaldy, 5/1 Sea The Moon, 15/2 Fortfield Lady
10/1 Ellaat, JJ Nester, 11/1 Pak Army, Sand And Water
14/1 Lunastar, 14/1Peace Party, 16/1 Trenchtown Rock
16/1 Tiantu 18/1 Going Solo, 20/1 Lady Kapalua
20/1 Lilly Banner, 25/1 Allez George, 25/1Larkhill Lady, 
25/1 Sienne D'or, 33/1 Alterno, 33/1 Muntahez
50/1 Fintown Boy.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

8 Past renewals

Some interesting pointers
Aside from last years winner
It has been a lightweights race
Horses with 11st 2lbs or more
Have a poor 1-59 record in this

Every past winner
Ran within 61 days

All 8 winners
Had between 11-23 career runs
Had between 4-20 hurdle runs

None have won this
With under 4 hurdle starts
LILLY BANNER fails this
JJ NESTER also fails this

Inexperienced horses
Have really struggled so far
Horses with under 10 races
Have a 0-50 record in this
Takes out several outsiders
CHRISALDY also fails this
He's raced once in 123 days
Every past winner of this
Had at least 2 runs in 84 days
CHRISALDY feels undercooked
SIENNE D'OR the same problem
With just 1 run in many months

I SEE THE MOAN has 5 runs
Horses with under 10 runs
Have a 0-50 record in this
That has to be a major worry 
Especially for a 4 year old filly
Who has not raced in 49 days
Who has just 1 run in 84 days

This is interesting

September and October
Handicap Hurdles
Open to both sexes
Any distance
Any class of race

Fillies aged 4
Under 17 career starts
Have a horrible 2-245 record
I SEE THE MOAN fails this
Those with 10st 13lbs or more
Have a 0-115 record as well
I SEE THE MOAN fails this too
 
LADY KAPALUNA has 7 runs
She also has 165 days absence
Every past winner of this
Ran within the last 61 days
FINTOWN BOY is off too long
PEACE PARTY has 73 days off
Modest enough lacks positives
 
All 8 winners
Had between 11-23 career runs
Had between 4-20 hurdle runs
Would not want a very exposed type
TRENCHTOWN ROCK has 42 runs
Wanted a better profile than that
ALTERNO has similar problems

PAK ARMY has 38 career runs
Has to carry topweight weight too
In a race lightweights dominate
MUNTAHEZ has a big weight
Not keen on a 5yo by Camacho
Unseating at 40/1 last time out

LARKHILL LADY is a 6yo mare
Bit short with 10 career starts
Hasn't shown much ability so far

SAND AND WATER is a 5yo
More weight than most winners
Would not rule him out on that
Felt he ran quite well last time
But he is on the smaller side 

ELLAAT is a 5yo
Sired by a 5f-6f sprinter
Who was himself out of a sprinter
His sires hurdle runners are 0-27
Has no national hunt winners yet
Bit more stamina from the mother
But not a convincing hurdle pedigree

Shortlist

TIANTU ran 7 days ago
Beaten unplaced in a chase
Unclear if he is safe enough

FORTIFIED LADY is respected
She is a mare with 10 career runs
Comes here on the back of a fall
But going well when coming down

LUNASTAR won here in 2020
Over 2m 4f in this very meeting
Despite that this trip looks better
Feel he has been running nicely
Getting himself fit this year
Whilst his rating dropped 10lbs
He can win this on his best form
Worried about his jockey though
Who has a 1-40 career record

FUTURE ROMANCE

Reserve runner

Likely to get a run here

Has potential and put in short

Always a possible saver
But she is an older mare
With just 1 run in 122 days

11 months since her last hurdle run
She fell at the last hurdle she faced
She could be thrown in and win this
But she is too short on her profile

Selection

LUNASTAR 10/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5





Ascot 4.15

100/30 Future Investment, 7/2 Royaume Uni
5/1 Rajinsky, 7/1 Uber Cool, 9/1 Get Shirty
10/1 Caribeno, Indianapolis, 14/1 King's Advice
16/1 Single, 25/1 Clongowes.

2m Handicap

Long history

That may well change today

Past renewals since 2008
Show horses aged 5 or more
Have a miserable 0-72 record

So older horses are weak

The problem is
The younger horses this year
All had flaws and problems
And go back prior to 2007
Several older horses won this
Maybe the age stats will flip again

SINGLE is the right age
But not like any younger winners
Far more exposed than them all
ROYAUME is the right age group
But he has 160 days absence
CARIBENO is the right aged too
But he has raced once in 177 days
None own race this so lightly raced

Happy to oppose the oldest
KINGS ADVICE a 7yo off 177 days
CLONGOWES a 7yo absent 79 days
INDIANAPOLIS a very exposed 6yo
Rarely delivers no wins since 2019
Never delivered over this far before

UNDER COOL might pop up
But he is 7 years old not ideal
And breeding stats are dodgy
His sire has 2m winners on record
But none yet in this class before

GET SHIRTY is hard to read
With 14 of his 16 runs in France
Like him because of the damsire
Monsum one of my favourite sires
Was damsire to 2 recent winners 
He would be 2nd 3rd 4th choice

RAJINSKY has a chance
He would be 2nd 3rd 4th choice

FUTURE INVESTMENT a positive
If the 3 and 4 year olds are not right
Happy to go with a 5 year old instead
He has some serious numbers

Ideally

If the horse was 100/30 or more
FUTURE INVESTMENT each way
Would be my first choice of stake
But there could be non runners

Selection
 
£2.50 Each Way GET SHIRTY14/1  

£5.00 Place Bet FUTURE INVESTMENT 1/1






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES   



Tomorrow's Target race


Ascot 3.50

13/2 River Nymph, 13/2 Aldaary, 7/1 Aratus
7/1 Al Rufaa, 9/1 Fresh, 12/1 Pierre Lapin
12/1 Escobar, 14/1 Oo De Lally, 16/1 Star Of Orion
16/1 Documenting, 16/1 Ascension, 16/1 Fundamental
16/1 Tomfre, 25/1 Symbolize, 25/1 Accidental Agent
25/1 Young Fire, 28/1 Mums Tipple, 28/1 Qaysar

Challenge Handicap

Looked at this the other day

Gave an "Ideal Profile"

10 were shortlisted

Rather annoyingly though
We have 9 of them running

Anyway done the race
It is a long heavy preview
Heavy on detail and statistics
Thrown the kitchen sink at it
Generic draw statistics
Generic angles everywhere
Complicated preview

Going to sleep on things

Right now

2 Guaranteed to be shortlisted

2 Outsiders could yet make it

Whatever the result tomorrow

Nothing was left to chance

In terms of a preview

Better than the Bond film preview





Recent form

Last 4 days

22 Previews

10 Winners
7 Losers
5 Placed

This shows we are doing well
Targeting the sensible races
Not doing much wrong at all
Some would say against this
Just one official bet in 4 days
Which is fair and a frustration
Sometimes bets break runs
Momentum can easily disappear
Given it's 9 messages in a row  
And coping with midweek stuff
More than happy with my form
Managing messages and bets
Can often throw me off course


As I have said in service truths 
The top of the message horses
Do  need to improve right now
That's been the flaw this week
There has been just 4 in 4 days
And these four finished P L W P
Not good with the weeks record
Of 10 winners 5 places 7 losers



Sunday

Arc De Triomphe 

5/2 Tarnawa, 11/4 Adayar, 4/1 Hurricane Lane
5/1 Snowfall, 12/1 Love, 14/1 Chrono Genesis
20/1 Deep Bond, 20/1 Raabihah, 25/1 Alenquer
33/1 Sealiway, 50/1 Broome, 66/1 Baby Rider
66/1 Bubble Gift, Mojo Star, Torquator Tasso
 
Draw

Most of the big guns
Have faired quite well

Hurricane Lane drawn 2
Tarnawa is drawn in 3
Snowfall has stall 9
 Adayar has drawn 11

The only problem draws

Chrono Genesis in 14
Has not done that well

Raabihah in stall 15 of 15
Has got the highest draw
That will hurt his chances
Makes selecting her harder

SNOWFALL down to 5/1
Betfair are non runner no bet

ALLENQUER down to 25/1
We have options in place
Not too unfriendly for an Arc
Main aim will be not to lose
 
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