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Ascot 3.35
 
MONDAMMEJ 15/2-8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Today's Racing 


John Smiths day

Traditionally a hard message to do
Possibly the toughest of the season
Because of the relentless schedule

Happy with what I have produced 
Given how difficult it was to compile
But not deluding myself about today
Foolish to expect plenty of winners 
Gone head on into the lions mouth

We start with  a soft enough race
But after that it is very tough going
The only priority is an account bet




Account Bet Options  


Navan 2.45

£4.00 Each Way HODD'S GIRL 18/1-16/1

£2.00 Win Saver DRISH HERO 4/1

Significant angles in this handicap
We have done well in this before
Feel the ground might decide this
Currently said to be good ground 
If the ground is on the softer side
Drish Hero each way around 4/1
Could easily be the account bet
If the ground is good or quicker
Hodd's Girl has a brilliant chance
I've gone for the bigger price bet
So we will need some staking luck
Drish Hero to place also appealed 
With Hodd's Girl £2.50 each way
But staking the race as described



Ascot 3.35
 
MONDAMMEJ 15/2-8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Fancied on his last three races
Made him a negative each time
Has failed some damming angles
Still performed with great credit
Today he has the correct profile
So I am hoping he can take this
He certainly deserves a win now





Today's Best Bet
 
Ascot 3.35
MONDAMMEJ 15/2-8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5






Preview Selections  


Newmarket 1.30
Calm Skies 6/4
Win Bet

York 1.45
£4.50 Each Way Chichester 15/2-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Lexington Knight 11/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Navan 2.45
£4.00 Each Way Hodd's Girl 18/1-16/1
£2.00 Win Bet Drish Hero 4/1

Ascot 3.35
Mondammej 15/2-8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Newmarket 3.50
£3.50 Each Way Symbolize 11/1-12/1
£3.00 Place Bet Jumaira Bay 2/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

York 4.05
Astro King 9/2-5/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Limerick 4.15
£5.50 Win Bet  Fill The Tank 8/1
£3.00 Win Bet Fairyhill Run 11/4-3/1
£1.50 Win Bet Goodnightngodbless 7/1

Newmarket 4.25
£6.00 Win Bet Creative Force 11/2
£4.00 Place Bet Dragon Symbol 6/4

York 4.40
Urban Beat 8/1-15/2
Each Way







PROFILES & PREVIEWS    




Newmarket 1.30

15/8 Calm Skies, 7/2 Ephrata, 9/2 Ardbraccan
7/1 Wilderness Girl, 10/1 Bouquet, Eagle Path
12/1 Salve Japan, 20/1 Signorina Merisi
25/1 Kingdom Girl, 33/1 Mimi's Odyssey.

7f Fillies Maiden

CALM SKIES can take this

Good debut her 14 days ago
The draw did not help there
Looked a warm race over 7f

ARDBRACCAN also ran there
She overtook Calm Skies late
Finished in second place 20/1
But she was probably flattered 
Given a harder race of the pair
And had the advantage of a run

CALM SKIES cam reverse form
Trainer has a good record in this
Should be able to add to that

Selection

CALM SKIES 6/4

Win Bet

York 1.45

7/1 Ajyaall, 15/2 Jump The Gun, 8/1 Eagleway
9/1 Chichester, 10/1 La Trinidad, Wobwobwob
10/1 Young Fire, 12/1 Lexington Knight
14/1 Crownthorpe, 16/1 Amaysmont, Dubai Mirage
16/1 Fame And Acclaim, 16/1  Poet's Dawn
22/1 Broken Spear, 33/1 Gallipoli 33/1 Safran
40/1 Ebury.

8f Handicap

10 Past renewals

Draw stats over 8f here
Tell us that stalls 18-19-20
Are simply unacceptable 

York 8f races
Under 23 runners
Since as far back as 1997
Horses drawn 18 or more
Have a 0-107 record in them
Leading me to oppose these

AMAYSMONT
CROWNTHORPE

10 Past renewals

All 10 winners

Had 3 things in common

The winners were aged 3-4-5
Horses aged 6 or more are 0-43 

The winners ran within 23 days
Horses absent longer were 0-38 

None lost 10 + lengths last time
Those that failed this were 0-29

This leads to the following

EAGLEWAY 9/1
LEXINGTON KNIGHT 11/1
JUMP THE GUN 13/2-7/1
CHICHESTER 10/1
LA TRINIDAD 10/1-11/1

EAGLEWAY is a 5yo 
He is drawn in stall 14

York 8f races
Under 23 runners
Since as far back as 1997
Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn 14 or higher
Have a 1-166 record in them
Non runners will help him

CHICHESTER is drawn 12

Past renewals show
The first 4 horses home
Had the following draws

2019 - 2 1 7 3
2018 - 1 6 3 4
2017 - 7 2 6 10
2016 - 6 17 7 5
2015-  7 3 13 17

Lower draws dominated

LEXINGTON KNIGHT is a 3yo
All past 3yo winner of this race 
Were very lightly raced like him
He has no handicap form though

LA TRINIDAD could take this
His chance may depend on rain
He would not want much to come
AND HE IS GOING UP IN GRADE
JUMP THE GUN is improving
He is going up 2 grades in class
But well drawn and well treated

Looked at similar races
Horses aged 4 
Winning class 4 races last time
Not a very impressive record
When these particular 4 year olds
Start to get over 13 career runs
LA TRINIDAD is in that ballpark
JUMP THE GUN is in that as well

Given anticipated non runners
One who has come out already
Feel this is the sensible play

Selection 

£4.50 Each Way CHICHESTER 15/2-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet LEXINGTON KNIGHT 11/1
  
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5







Navan 2.45

4/1 Gordon Bennett, 11/2 Drish Hero
8/1 Amazing Emma, 10/1 Attelboro, Hodd's Girl
12/1 Art Of Unity, 12/1 Inventor, 12/1 Maguire's Grace
12/1 Parkers Hill, 16/1 Blastofmagic, 12/1 Chitra
12/1 Gatwick Kitten, Herb Of Grace, 12/1 Showmolina
12/1 Sunset Nova, 33/1 Bushtucker Trial, Canford Art, 
33/1 Coffeemeanscoffee, Jazz And Blues, 50/1 Magyar.
 
5f Handicap

7 Past renewals

Big field

But there are clues in this

Horses aged 3

Have a 0-26 record in this race
I would prefer an older horse 
Likely a 3yo with a recent run 
Could be capable of winning it

ATTELBORO is a good example
AMAZING EMMA is one as well
No shock if one of these do win 
But given the choice it's older

GORDON BENNETT is a 3yo
His profile looks risky to me

He has only had 5 career runs
He has raced just once in 76 days
May win but I couldn't risk him
Hasn't been the type to win this race

7 Past renewals

Look at winners absences

They won absent these days

8 8 8 8 6 7 6

Every winner ran within 8 days
That puts me off several more

SUNSET NOVA has 80 days off
PARKERS HILL is underraced
Having raced once since November
SHOWMOLINA has 38 days absence
INVENTOR has 68 days absence

GATWICK KITTEN often starts slowly
And surely wants 6f + on pedigree

We want a horse aged 4 +
Who has a very recent race
Ideally within the last 8 days

There are always dark spoilers
CHITRA a mare first time out may be
Joseph is capable of sickening us all

Shortlist

ACT OF UNITY 11/1

DRISH HERO 7/2-4/1

HODD'S GIRL 16/1 

 
Look at the past renewals

The 8 8 8 8 6 7 6 day absences

The following renewals
In 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 
All came from the same race
Bellewstowns handicap over 5f
That took place just 8 days ago

DRISH HERO won that race
Could be an improving sprinter
Could be a massive player here

HODD'S GIRL ran 10 days ago
That's a close enough fit here
Females won 4 of the 7 renewals
Fillies aged 4 won 2 of them as well
They both had 12 career starts
HODD'S GIRL a good fit with 13 runs
Well treated on her 3 year old form
She has raced 5 times this season
If the ground stays good of faster
She could easily be winning this
 
Selection

£4.00 Each Way HODD'S GIRL 18/1-16/1

£2.00 Win Bet DRISH HERO 9/2-4/1






Ascot 3.35

6/1 Significantly, 17/2 Hurricane Ivor
9/1 Boundless Power, 11/1 Only Spoofing
11/1 Tis Marvellous, 12/1 Makana
12/1 Mondammej, Nomadic Empire, Showalong
14/1 Get It, Sunday Sovereign, 16/1 Blue De Vega
16/1 Danzeno, 16/1 Mokaatil, 18/1 Ostilio
20/1 Aljady, 20/1 Count D'orsay, 20/1 Nelson Gay
28/1 Zargun.

5f Handicap

Last years 1-2-3-4
Came from stalls 18 19 20 17

That was against the norm
Normally low draws dominated

The draw is a bit of a mess here
My angles suggest we can avoid
The two highest stalls here 
OSTILO and MOKAATIL fail this
That does not help much at all

8 Past renewals

20 similar Ascot races in July

If you take these 20 races

All 20 winners had recent runs
They ran within the last 24 days
Those that did not have a 0-77 record

This puts me off several
Including the following horses
MAKANAH has 49 days off 
GET IT has a 69 day absence
TIS MARVELLOUS off 85 days
BOUNDLESS POWER 48 days off
None of these above horses
Match winners of similar races
 
Horses from pattern races
Have a 0-27 record in these races
COUNT D'ORSAY fails this angle
NELSON GAY also fails this too

20 Similar races

If we look at these races
That had fields of 8 or more

Horses aged 3
Have a 0-26 record in them
Do not want to risk a 3yo

SIGNIFICANTLY has this problem
Never met an older horse in his life
SHOWALONG is another 3 year old
Feel that is a disadvantage in this

NOMADIC EMPIRE also a 3yo
Should be avoided from stall  1
Equally horses aged 7 or more
Underperform and are avoidable
DANZENO is too old as a 10yo
BLUE DE VEGA rejected aged 8
ONLY SPOOFING is out as a 7yo 
Who is drawn in no mans land

What you really need here

Gelding aged 4-5-6
Running within 24 days
Beaten under 5 lengths last time

3 horses pass this


ALJADY 20/1

HURRICANE IVOR 9/1

MONDAMMEJ 8/1


HURRICANE IVOR is a 4yo
With 2 runs only this season
And a 7 day absence as well
There are areas of concern

What annoying problem
The Gosforth Cup at Newcastle
Has not yet been a good trial race
Only 15 came there but all failed
That may or may not be relevant 
ALJADY comes from there
Do not know what to make of it
Quite possibly I'm overreacting

MONDAMMEJ

Fancied him at Pontefract
But he didn't run that day
Chosen to come here instead

MONDAMMEJ is a 4yo

In his last 3 races

He has been a negative
On each of his last 3 races

Made him a negative last time
He was a 4yo coming from 5f
He failed a 0-102 statistic there

Opposed him 2 runs ago
Failed a 20 year draw statistic
When 4th in the Epsom Dash

Before that he ran at York
He failed multiple stats there

Been running very well
In light of very difficult tasks 

Today is the first time
That he has a decent profile

Selection

MONDAMMEJ 15/2-8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Newmarket 3.50

9/2 Perotto, 5/1 Ametist, 8/1 Fundamental
9/1 Jumaira Bay, 10/1 Motakhayyel, 12/1 Boardman
12/1 Symbolize, 14/1 Shine So Bright, 16/1 Kimifive
16/1 Lord Rapscallion, National League
20/1 Ropey Guest, 25/1 Cliffs Of Capri
25/1 Gabrial The Wire, Karibana, 33/1 Count Otto
33/1 On A Session, Revich, 40/1 Tadleel.

Bunbury Cup

20 runners
  
MOTAKHAYYEL won last year
Broke a few angles rated 105
But he was an improving 4yo 
  
However horses rated 106 plus
Have never won this race before
MOTAKHAYYEL is now rated 109 
  
Despite that this is a race
That seems to be getting classier
 
Go back to 2004
Horses rated 92 or lower
Have a 0-30 record in this race
These may well lack the class 
The following horses fail this

TADLEEL 
ON A SESSION
NATIONAL LEAGUE
KIMIFIVE 
GABRIAL THE WIRE  

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-36 record since 2007
They won in 2004 2005 2006
  
RISING SAND is rejected aged 9 
CLIFFS OF CAPRI unsafe aged 7 

Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 4 weeks are 0-17
COUNT OTTO fails this statistic
Comes here after a heavy defeat

Horses aged 4
Coming from 6f or shorter
Have a 0-38 record in this race 
ROPEY GUEST fails this statistic 

Horses from 6f races
Have a poor 3-115 record in the race
Those 3 came from the Wokingham
Horses from other 6f races are 0-51
SHINE SO BRIGHT fails this statistic
     
Horses beaten 12 + lengths last time
Have a 1-59 record since 1998
The following horses fail this angle 
BOARDMAN
KARIBANA 
REVICH

Horses from Listed or Group races
Have a 0-36 record since 1999
The following horses fail this

MOTAKHAYYEL 
FUNDAMENTAL

Last time out winners
Aged 5 or more
Absent over 11 days
Have a 0-21 record
GABRIAL THE WIRE fails this

This leaves 5 horses

AMETISR

PEROTTO

JUMAIRA BAY

SYMBOLIZE

LORD RAPSCALLION

Since the stalls renumbered
There were 10 Bunbury Cups

Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5
Have a 1-50 record in these 
AMETISR drawn in stall 1
May be too risky given his draw

PEROTTO is 3yo down in trip
Only 8 his age tried all failed

LORD RAPSCALLION is a 5yo
So many are far more progressive
But won't be surprised if he wins 

SYMBOLIZE

Done nothing wrong this year
Comes from a good trial race too
Going to play the race this way

Selection 

£3.50 Each Way SYMBOLIZE 11/1-12/1

£3.00 Place Bet JUMAIRA BAY 2/1





York 4.05

5/1 Astro King, 8/1 Aaddeey, 8/1 Surrey Pride
12/1 Al Zaraqaan, Dawaam, 16/1 Ascension
16/1 Fishable, Johnny Drama, Nicholas T
20/1 Bright Start, Cockalorum, 20/1 Dark Pine
20/1 Data Protection, Good Birthday, Hartswood,
25/1 Lucander, Victory Chime,  25/1 Palavecino
33/1 What's The Story, Winter Reprise
33/1 Sky Defender, 33/1Strait Of Hormuz.

John Smith's Cup 10f
  
ASTRO KING the favourite
Has landed a better draw
Than most of his main rivals

York 10f Handicaps since 2006
Horses drawn 18 or more
Have a worrying 1-68 record

SURREY PRIDE has stall 24
Will not be easy with 57 days off
AL ZARAQAAN a similar problem
Mixing stall 20 with an absence

DATA PROTECTION is badly drawn
PALAVECINO topweight in stall 21

AADDEEY is not safe from stall 22
4 year olds like him down in distance
Have a 0-43 record in this handicap

DAWAAM has to overcome stall 19
With just 1 run in the last 72 days

York 10f Handicaps since 2006
Horses with over 15 career runs
Drawn in stall 14 or higher
Have a 0-140 record in them
NICHOLAS T fails this 0-140 angle
Would not want a 9yo anyway

23 renewals since 1997
Horses aged 6 or more
Have a miserable 1-107 record
WHAT'S THE STORY is out aged 7

COCKALORUM is a 6yo off 40 days
VICTORY CHIME rejected aged 6
JOHNNY DRAMA is also a 6yo
Happy to avoid with 133 days off

DARK PINE ran badly last time 
Horses aged 4 like him
Down in distance are 0-43
WINTER SURPRISE fails this too
Comes here after a heavy defeat

Horses running this season
Beaten over 5 lengths last time
Have a 1-55 record in this race
ASCENSION fails this statistic
LUCANDER has just lost 25 lengths 
SKY DEFENDER well beaten last time

BRIGHT SPARK is short of runs
Just the one in the last 121 days
The last winner of this race
So short of runs was back in 2005
SURREY PRICE has this problem too

FISHABLE is a 4yo
He comes up in class here
Horses from Class 3 or lower
None have won this since 2009

HATSWOOD a 4yo up in distance
Some have own this race before
None though winning last time

GOOD BIRTHDAY has a chance
Shortlistable and not out of this

ASTRO KING passes my statistics
His biggest rivals do not pass them
He has been laid out for the race
Hardly original but with 5 places
Needs to underperform to be 6th +

Selection

ASTRO KING 9/2-5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Limerick 4.15

4/1 Centurion Steel, 11/2 Paris Texas
7/1 Fill The Tank 15/2 Fairyhill Run
17/2 Goodnightngodbless, 9/1 Mister Bells
9/1 Demain Des L'aube, 11/1 Sizing Malbay, 
11/1 Brogine, 20/1 Lord Lariat  20/1 My Oakclahome
20/1 Top Of The Charts 25/1 Argumental
28/1 Super Citizen 33/1 Carrig Cathal.

2m 6f Handicap Chase

Probably too difficult

Given the time left to review it

CENTURION STEEL is a 6yo
He has just 1 chase start here

Not convinced you want a 6yo
Or a horse with just 1 chase run

My angles
Based on smallish samples

Suggest an older horse
A horse with over 10 runs
CENTURION STEEL only has 8

They suggest a horse
With 11st 4lbs or less weight
That's a complicated angle anyway
As most topweights have claimers

Going with the momentum horses
Two have come from a hurdle race
In a split stake rather than each way

Selection

£5.50 Win Bet  FILL THE TANK 8/1

£3.00 Win Bet FAIRYHILL RUN 11/4-3/1

£1.50 Win Bet GOODNIGHTGODBLESS 7/1






Newmarket 4.25

4/1 Oxted, Starman, 5/1 Dragon Symbol
7/1 Creative Force, Rohaan, 12/1 Glen Shiel
14/1 Art Power, Supremacy, 16/1 Chil Chil
16/1 Extravagant Kid, 25/1 Line Of Departure
25/1 Method, 33/1 Good Effort, 40/1 Glorious Journey
40/1 Miss Amulet, 50/1 Garrus, Summerghand
66/1 Brando, Emaraaty Ana.

July Cup

History tells us
We should ignore older horses 
Go back to as far as 1939
Only 1 winner aged 6 or more
This takes out 5 of the runners
None of the significant ones

OXTED is rated 119
Highest rated horse in here

He comes from 5f though
Horses from 5f races rarely win
They are just 1-43 since 2004

ROHAAN won the Wokingham
Did not think he would cope there
This is 3 grades higher in class 
No winner came via handicaps

The last 23 winners of this race
All ran within the previous 8 weeks
SUPERLATIVE has 73 days absence
Could be a problem and drawn 19
Highest drawn winner was stall 16

STARMAN has 5 career starts
That's fine but the bare minimum
But throw in 59 days off
Just 1 run in months as well
He will need to be very good to win

There were 12 past winners aged 3
They had the following career runs
5 15 5 8 5 5 6 7 5 7 7 8 4 

DRAGON SYMBOL with 6 runs
Seems to be a reasonable fit here

CREATIVE FORCE with 6 runs
Also looks a decent enough match

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet CREATIVE FORCE 11/2

£4.00 Place Bet DRAGON SYMBOL 6/4





York 4.40

 7/4 Winter Power, 9/2 Dakota Gold, 5/1 Moss Gill
5/1 Que Amoro, 13/2 Urban Beat, 14/1 El Astronaute
25/1 Tarboosh, 33/1 Lahore, 33/1  Snazzy Jazzy
40/1 Bedford Flyer, 50/1 First Company.

City Walls Stakes

Listed race over 5f

10 renewals

11 Runners

Looks a 5 horse race
EL ASTRONAUTE didn't make it
Older than all previous winners
Had 6 weeks absence as welll
And is coming from stall 1 too
No winners won from stalls 1-2

DAKOTA GOLD is a 7yo
Not my choice with 245 days off
Every winner ran within 42 days
MOSS GILL is his stablemate
That does complicate things

MOSS GILL may be underraced
He's raced just once In 105 days
That could easily be a problem
QUE AMORO has 1 run in months
Hardly ideal for an older mare

Past renewals show
Horses with over 13 runs
Needed 2 or more runs this season
MOSS GILL does not have that
QUE AMORO does not have that

WINTER POWER is a 3yo
He could easily be good enough
But 3 year olds are 1-22 in this race
Clearly not an advantage to be one

URBAN BEAT own 13 days ago
Only a handicap but not worried
The 2011 and 2019 managed this
He has won a listed and group race
And comes here with momentum

Selection

URBAN BEAT  8/1-15/2

Each Way

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