5 Previews

1 Ante Post Bet
 
 
 Account Bet 
 
 Ante Post

Runs tomorrow

Saturday

Leopardstown 1.40

Matron Stakes

PRETTY GORGEOUS 12/1-11/10-10/1
 
Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3



12/1 PPower Hills 888Sport Chandler
12/1 Unibet Betfred Boyles
11/1 Bet365 Mansionbet
10/1 Skybet 




Today's Racing


It's been a treading water week 
Found concentrating difficult 
My minds drifting everywhere
As todays rambling FBA shows

Saturdays main bet

Always high on my priority list

PRETTY GORGEOUS runs
Been thinking about her a lot
Flagged her as a horse to follow

Decided to stake her today 
That could well be a mistake
 
What staking her today does
Takes away any temptation
To bottle it tomorrow morning 

Given some reasons this week
Will preview the race tomorrow
There is a hot favourite in there
But think I have found an angle 
That we use to get her beaten

Having compiled service results
Feel we are entitled to take a risk
Have a wild swing at a big price
This account bet is that luxury

As for today

The preview selections

All seem a bit weird to me

No love for this message

Only 1 horse running today

Appeals enough for me to bet

Would have been a "Best Bet"

Had I not gone Ante Post instead


Ballinrobe 4.25

COTTIE  2/1-9/4-15/8

Win Bet


I would personally prefer
To bet him each way at 5/2
And I will do if he gets there
But I'm going with a win bet

This is the best bet that isn't

Trumped by the Ante Post bet

The rest of it

Sad to say is very resistible

 


PRETTY GORGEOUS

There is a slight stamina doubt

On facts figures achievements

She should not be winning it

But my theory about this

Her numbers are not relevant

As she is a big gross filly

Very hard to get fit enough

And she has not been so far

Both excited and wary about her

But at the price worth the risk 

If COTTIE wins today

Why not win the stake money
For the account bet tomorrow






Preview Selections


Doncaster 1.40
Hoo Ya Mal 5/2-11/4
Win Bet

Doncaster 3.15
£5.00 Win Bet Future Investment 13/2-7/1
£5.00 Place Bet Sevenna Star 11/10-1/1

Chester 4.00 
£6.00 Win Bet Super Stars 7/1 -15/2
£4.00 Place Bet War Brave 7/4 (1-2)

Ballinrobe 4.25
Cottie 9/4
Win Bet

Chester 5.05 
£6.00 Win Bet King Of Tonga 10/1
£4.00 Place Bet Pary Mountain 6/4





Yesterday's Summary

No bet day after the non runner
Embour the days best withdrew
That left us with the 5 previews
These races finished P L P P P
Breaking level at least on paper
In 4 of those final few previews
Achieved by win and place bets
If I had staked those each way 
It could have been much worse
But having said that the prices
Didn't hold up particularly well  
Not sure how realistic they were
Just felt the staking was messy  
And the overall message weak
Good intentions but didn't work







PROFILES & PREVIEWS     




Doncaster 1.40

7/2 Noble Truth, 4/1 Hoo Ya Mal, 5/1 Razzle Dazzle
11/2 Ribhi, 13/2 Eldrickjones, 8/1 Find, 10/1 Alflaila
11/1 Mr McCann, 33/1 Gwan So, 50/1 Leopold Bloom.

Flying Scotsman Stakes

Rarely do this race

Following an ideal profile

The race upgraded in 2013 
Only 8 renewals since then

7 of the 8 winners 
Shared this profile

Under 4 career starts
Running within a month
Coming from Class 4 +
Coming from 6f or 7f

Horses with this profile
Had a solid 7-21 record

Those drawn under 6
Had a smart 7-16 record

3 Horses have this profile

HOO YA MAL
RAZZLE DAZZLE


RIBHI might win
But his sires record is debatable
None have won a pattern race
Over this far without more runs

RAZZLE DAZZLE in a similar place
Not a safe sire in the circumstances

HOO YA MAL has an extra race
He would be my personal choice
Perhaps as more an each way bet
Would not be popular around 5/2
I could stake the race with safety
Incorporate a place bet with him
But not going to mess about here
It's not significant enough a race

Selection

HOO YA MAL 5/2-11/4

Win Bet






Doncaster 3.15

9/2 Sevenna Star,  6/1 HMS President
6/1 Uber Cool 7/1 Future Investment
10/1 Rhythmic Intent, 11/1 Speedo Boy
12/1 Sovereign Duke, 14/1 Khatm, 16/1 Lucky Deal
25/1 Cardano, 50/1 Sir Chauvelin.

Mallard Handicap 1m 6f

SEVENNA STAR is a 6yo
Who are aged 6 or older
He is also bottomweight
Not sure he is safe enough

His age group struggle
Horses aged 6 or older
Have a 1-58 record since 1997

Opposing the older horses
These horses look the wrong age
SIR CHAUVELIN
SPEEDO BOY
SOVEREIGN DUKE
LUCKY DEAL

 
UBER COOL is a 7yo
He could get a pass in this
He had 3 years off the track
This is only his 3rd season

Horses aged 4
Have won this 9 times
They had the following runs
 8-11-12 10-10-9-10-11-12 

Horses aged 4
With over 12 career starts
Have a poor 0-46 record
KHATM fails this with 15 runs
HMS PRESIDENT has 17 runs
He also fails this 0-46 profile

PRINCE ALEX has 12 runs
He is the right kind of 4yo
But 9st 10lbs could be an issue

Horses aged 4
With 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-37 record since 2004
Have a 1-55 record since 1997
PRINCE ALEX fails this with 9st 10lbs
HMS PRESIDENT fails it with 9st 9lvs

CARDANO is hard to like
Mixing 87 days off and 10st weight
Horses with 9st 11lbs or more
Have a 1-43 record in this race
RHYHMIC INTENT has 22 races
Thats a bit more exposed than ideal
Horses with 20 or more runs
Last won in 2009 and 0-30 since then 
If you look at his sires record
Running over 1m 6f or more
His runners 0-41 in Class 2 +

FUTURE INVESTMENT has 10st
Forgivable but horses from 2m
Aged 5 or more are 0-26 in this
I think that is forgivable as well

There is something wrong
With every one of these horses

One thing interests me
FUTURE INVESTMENT's sire 
His runners in Class 2 or higher
Are fine over 1m 6f and shorter 
Running over 1m 7f and longer
They have a weak 0-20 record

Every chance in 2 mile races
He does not stay in this class
This gives him lots of excuses 
Including last time out at York
Including 4 runs ago at Haydock
Fails this breeding stats many times
In the Chester Cup and Cesarewitch
This drop in trip is what he needs
Rather than suggest him each way
Going to split with a place only bet

SEVENNA STAR upgraded yards
Did not take to hurdling after that
He could be well treated off just 80
Place betting him with the win bet 

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet FUTURE INVESTMENT 13/2-7/1

£5.00 Place Bet SEVENNA STAR 11/10-1/1






Chester 4.00

13/8 Hapap, 4/1 Abbado
4/1 War Brave 5/1 Aegis Power, 7/1 Super Stars
20/1 Bellshill Beauty, 25/1 Bazza The Barrel.
 
2yo Maiden (10f)

Extended 10f for juveniles
Will take a lot of stamina

HAPAP comes from 7f

Not the safest sire in Dark Angel

Dark Angel 2 year olds
Running over 9f + on turf
Have not won any of them
Without at least 4 past runs
HAPAP only has the 1 run

WAR BRAVE has some form
Experience that may help
But defeat in a Class 5 handicap
And doubts about this distance
Suggests he may not have enough

ABBADO has raced once
Powerful connections behind her
Depends now far he has improved
From his debut run when a bit draw 

AEGIS POWER was not cheap
Another with 1 run over 7f

September
2yo Maiden races
Run over 10f and more
Horses from 7f races
Have a 0-21 record

AEGIS POWER fails this
WAR BRAVE fails this
HAPAP fails this as well
 
2yo Maiden races
Run over 10f and more
Run anytime of the year
Horses from 7f or shorter
Under 2 career starts
Have a modest 1-27 record
Those absent over 9 days
Have a 0-18 record in them

AEGIS POWER fails this
WAR BRAVE fails this
HAPAP fails this as well

Statistically

SUPER STARS and ABBADO
Do look the two safest choices

WAR BRAVE may get placed
Despite being just 7 runners
 
ABBADO hard to leave out
Not keen on Mark Prescott
With lightly raced horses
Just not drawn to them much 


Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SUPER STARS 7/1-15/2

£4.00 Place Bet WAR BRAVE 7/4 (1-2)






Ballinrobe 4.25

9/4 Betty Zane, 3/1 Erins Benefit
5/1 Shanacoole Dasy, 11/2 Cottie, 10/1 Millies Mite
14/1 Dawn Of The West, 14/1 Glory Breeze
14/1 Yeat's Encore, 20/1 Can U Believe
20/1  Lough Manor, 33/1 Corrigaleen
40/1 Minnies Exhibition, 100/1 Boola Belle
150/1 Dardedze, 200/1 Gentle Snoopy.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m 23f

Not many of these can win

BETTY ZANE is one of those
But she is a 7yo off 174 days

One or two her age have won
But this is a low scoring yard
Stable has a weak 7-191 record
Strike rate of under 4% so far
The trainers hurdlers are 1-52
He's only trained one winner
That was absent more than 55 days
And that winner came on the flat

GLORY BREEZE is wrong
As a 7yo hammered in a bumper
DAWN ON THE WEST resistible
Could be in danger of bouncing
MILLIES MITE has low figures
YEATS ENCORE has an absence
And could be too exposed for it

SHANACOOLE DASY is a 5yo
She has shown some ability
Not as much as some though
Would not be a shock winner
But her trainer is still very raw
Has not trained any winner (0-11)

Shortlist

COTTIE is a 6yo
Been waiting for her a while
To go up in distance from 2m
Sired by an Ascot Gold Cup winner

ERINS BENEFIT is a 7yo
Has ability and many excuses
Opposed him in the past
Several of his hurdling races
Have caused him challenges
Once by coming from a chase 
Several times moving distances
Of 3 furlongs and more each time
Never had a settled run of races
Without some sort of challenge

Opposed her 4 runs ago
She was running over too short
She was a mare against males
She failed a 0-70 stat that day

Then went to Kilbeggan
Too sharp a track for her at 2m

Opposed her at Galway 
Big field handicap hurdle there
Just coming from a maiden hurdle
Felt she ran a very good race there

Last time again at 2m
On a sharp track she ran well
Just got outpaced in the last 2f
May have gone off too fast there 
This extra trip should be a help  

Difficult race to stake

I'd like to be on both horses
But prices are very restrictive 


ERINS BENEFIT

Has raced once in 125 days
That could count against him
He also drops down 4f in trip
He fails this unusual statistic

February to December
Mares Maiden hurdles
Run over 2m 3f and shorter

Horses aged 7 or more
Dropping down from 2m 6f +
Running within 5 months
Return a 0-35 record in them

ERINS BENEFIT fails this

Still like her as a saver
But my angles raise doubts

COTTIE has a better profile


Selection

COTTIE 9/4

Win Bet






Chester 5.05

3/1 Sir Benedict, 9/2 Newton Jack
5/1 Parys Mountain, 6/1 Kick On Kick On
8/1 King Of Tonga, 10/1 Confrontational
12/1 Espresso Freddo, 14/1 Glengarry
14/1 Pacino, 16/1 Case Of The Ex
20/1 Carnival Zain, 33/1 Salam Zayed.

7f Handicap

Amateur Riders race

Last years winner

20/1 shock drawn in stall 13

Anything can happen here

Past renewals of this
Similar Amateur races elsewhere
Suggest a 4-5-6 year old is best

Horses aged 3
Have a 0-13 record in this race
They are 0-19 in similar handicaps

SIR BENEDICT is a 3 year old
Stall 1 not always ideal here
Going to oppose him as a 3yo
CASE OF THE EX another 3yo
Comes here with a tough absence

Older horses have not delivered
Doesn't mean that one won't here
EXPRESSO FREDDO is rejected
Do not want a 7yo off 119 days
CONFRONTATIONAL is a 7yo
Just do not see enough positives
 
PACINO an exposed 5 year old
Seems more of a summer horse
He starts every season very well
But his form tails off beyond July 
Never seems to deliver late season
GLENGARRY is an 8yo drawn 10
That leaves me a bit too cold

NEWTON JACK is an option

Slightly longer absence than ideal
Slightly more weight than ideal
But enough to get on a shortlist
Not selected with 1 run in 80 days

Decided to  play it this way


Selection
  
£6.00 Win Bet KING OF TONGA10/1

£4.00 Place Bet PARYS MOUNTIAN 6/4






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


 
US Open Tennis

Raducanu beat Sakkari

Got that completely wrong
She did it so easily as well
Sakkari never showed up
Adopted a killjoy strategy
Going with the experience
That proved to be an error
Paid the price for that one
It is also being rubbed in
Leading all news bulletins



Foolish of me

To mention another bet
On a sport such as football
But at least it's not Salford




Tomorrow

Crystal Palace v Spurs

Spurs normally win this
But they do have injuries
Some players doubtfull
International commitments
Might cause them issues

They are W W W so far
Means little in this league
Not for a Non top 4 side
Not a side I'd bet away

Small interest bet 


Draw No Bet

Crystal Palace at 9/4





 
Something Else to Consider



Kerry Grand National

Now only 10 days away 

Signs that reasonably soon
We will be switching codes

Will make a pleasant change
To preview an early National

Several members

Prefer the National Hunt



Paul Nicholls yesterday

Gave his horse to follow

HITMAN the 5 year old

Said his early season target
Was the Haldon Gold Cup

Hitman if he does run there
Will be the youngest winner
Since Flagship Uberalais 
A long time ago back in 1999
So much to look forward to 



Betfair

Pestered me on the phone
Asked me if I had problems

Was I betting responsibly ?

Have I got a gambling problem ?

Fobbed them off as not interested
They duly suspended my account
So I had to call them back after that
Answer some impertinent questions
Before they reinstated the account  

I could take a magnanamous view
Believeing it was done out of care

But why then almost every week
Are they texting me about a casino
Offering me enducements for this
On a game that is highly addictive
Rigged and impossible to win on

Thats how much they really care
They just wanted their deniability


  

Service Truths 


Account Bet or Best Bet ?

For several years now
Have consistently said

There is no difference  
Between account bets
And the days best bets

Results this year prove it
The best bets did better
But that is no big surprise

The account bets harder
Usually far bigger prices
The hardest day of week
After a run of messages

How do I decide ?

Sometimes instinct
Sometimes pot luck 
And access to prices


Nothing to do with strength
I never feel one bet is better
In fact most I think will lose
Never get confident about it
Try to trust in the statistics
Hope the prep work is right

I often choose the account
For psychological reasons

Like stopping losing runs 
Like protecting future days
Try not to go into a Saturday
On the back of some losers 
None of this really matters 

The best advice in my view

Have the same stakes

On both the two accounts


Beating Service Costs


The service is what it is

Some demand it wins money

Some over the service cost

Some don't care about that

Many are in for the analysis

And do not follow any bets

One important consideration
For those who demand profit
How much must you have on
To recoup all subscrition fees

If a service 

Costs £375 for 6 months

Yet makes 10 points profit

You need £37.50 on each bet
Just to break level in 6 months

Obviously the lower that stake
The better value the service is

We have made 43pts profit
In the preceding 6 months

This means if it costs £375
You need £8.72 on every bet
To cover your full subscription
Anything more is your profit


To be perfectly honest
And some will not believe this

I genuinely have no idea
What this service costs
I've taken that 375 number 
Off a website I never visit 
Mick does all of that stuff

I have no idea who has joined
I have no idea who has stayed
Genuinely haven't got a clue

I could find out if I wanted to
But prefer to leave that alone

Don't want anything like that
Getting in the way of things
Having it affect confidence

I know after a bad Saturday
One or two invariably leave
Some come back days later
Others Give me a mouthful

But on the whole 
I keep away from all of that

But the fact just £8.72 a bet
Is enough to recover costs
I think it is a brilliant effort

But it really means nothing 

It's only the next 6 months 
And repeating it that matters

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