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Today's Racing   
     

Start of a new week

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Smaller scrappy fields 
Not pushing too hard




Leicester 4.25

£4.25 Each Way JACKAMUNDO 8/1

£1.50 Win Bet LOCHANTHEM 13/2 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

The market is not convinced
Neither am there are doubts
Jackamundo the fittest profile
Feels a generous price here
But he is not the perfect type
Vulnerable to many younger
But he has in built advantages
And we could get away with it
The fact we also get 1-2-3-4-5
Makes him worth a modest bet


Newcastle 6.00

ESPRESSOO 9/1-10/1-11/1
 
Each Way

Looks overpriced
Statistical problems on debut
None had achieved this before
So upgraded her opening race
And expect to see improvement
Not sure if that will be enough
But 9/1 is more than reasonable


Not going with any best bets

Quiet start usually advisable

Doesn't feel a significant day

With big prices in all 4 stakes

Could not be sure of a return





Today's Best Bet    

 
None 






Preview Selections



Huntingdon 3.40
£5.00 Win Bet Tonyx 11/2-6/1
£5.00 Place Bet Theocrat 1/1

Leicester 4.25
£4.25 Each Way Jackamundo 8/1
£1.50 Win Bet Lochanthem 13/2-7/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
 
Newcastle 5.00
£5.00 Win Bet Nataleena 11/1-12/1 
£5.00 Win Bet Lindwall 10/11

Newcastle 6.00
Espressoo 9/1-10/1-11/1
Each Way








Yesterday's Summary 

Sunday was the last message
Sabbath delivered once again
Time and again our best day
LOINGSEOIR was a staked bet
Won easily and after the saver
Came out roughly a 11/4 winner
More than happy with that day
Given we scored well elsewhere
Munster National a split stake
Funky Dady finished in a place
Basically got most money back
Goodwood finished up P W L P
Spanish Star won around 8/1
So we were ahead there as well
Unusual to have 3 weekend bets
Rode out luck but finished P P W
Overall good winner on a Sunday
Fair weekend all thing considered
  




PROFILES & PREVIEWS 


 
Huntingdon 3.40

3/1 Peltwell, 7/2 Theocrat, 9/2 Tonyx
11/2 Glimpse Of Gold, 7/1 Man Of Light
10/1 Enlighten, Fanfan Du Seuil
14/1 Borak, 16/1 Great Hall.

Mix of types here

Half are seasonal debutants
Others are recent returners

Statistically more likely to win
Unexposed first time outers
But with fitness not guaranteed
They are not safe each way bets
I think the best strategy to deploy
Mixing a win bet and a place bet
With a fit horse as a place saver
THEOCRAT  looks that Place bet
Lot of weight for a 4 year old
But is in form and won last time
Has more momentum that most
Rejecting the two older horses
Who also have the recent races
 
MAN OF LIGHT is a 4 year old 
Recent runs are quite modest
He is bred to require further
BORAK did not offer enough
GREAT HALL unlikely to win 
GLIMPSE OF GOLD is a 10yo
Prefer to be with younger types

THEOCRAT is that place saver
Looking for the win selection
From the first time out options
PELTWELL an 8 year old mare
Finished last season very well
Starts the new one rated 106
Career high mark off 195 days
ENLIGHTEN may need the run
FANFAN DE SEUILL respected
But more exposed topweight
Not a stable in any real hurry
TONYX could be the answer
Only a mare but well treated

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet TONYX 11/2-6/1

£5.00 Place Bet THEOCRAT 1/1






Leicester 4.25

5/1 Quemonda, 7/1 Jackamundo, 8/1 Kentucky Kitten
8/1 Reverential, 10/1 Avarice, La Hulotte, 12/1 Franco Grasso
12/1 Lochanthem, 12/1 Sabre Jet, 12/1 Tele Red, 16/1 Tundra
20/1 Divine Comedy, Straight Ash, 25/1 Clarendon Cross
50/1 Ceci Wells, 100/1 Chef De Troupe.

10f Handicap

There is a draw bias

Stalls 2-12 are probably best

Similar races since 2011

Show Horses drawn 1 are weak
REVERENTIAL is drawn in one 
She is a filly absent 59 days
Absent longer than any like him

Similar races since 2011
Horses drawn 13 or higher
Have a 1-37 record in these races

TUNDRA a badly drawn mare in 17
Ran yesterday did not do enough

KENTUCKY KITTEN is drawn 16
Lacks a recent run to compound this
And his figures are not progressive

AVARICE has stall 15 against him
Having raced just once in 115 days

Horses with 11 or more runs
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Have a winless 0-40 record

QUEMONDA a mare fails this
Do we want any mare aged 5
Horses aged 3-4 score far better
Every winner of this since 2013
Were aged either 3 or 4 (others 0-25)
She has never ran on soft ground 

SABRE JET is a 3 year old
Hurdling last time 50 days ago
Unorthodox profile no positive
CLARENDON CROSS is rejected
STRAIGHT ASH has his chance
But exposed 6 year olds are weak
Maybe too many young improvers 
DIVINE COMEDY drops 4f in trip
Lacks positives and is rejected

Possibles

LA HULOTTE a filly off 126 days
Feels raw and looks highly risky
But many win this lightly raced
So do not see her as a negative

FRANCO GRASSO is a 3yo
He has 3 runs and 125 days off
Keep him on side not a negative

TELE RED is shortlisted

LOCHANTHEM has a tough draw
And a heavy recent defeat as well
But her defeat last time excusable

Lack of fitness
Lack of stamina
Racing wide
All hurt her chance
She was heavily eased as well
Her previous run on soft ground
Was a career best on the figures
Want her part of the staking

JACKAMUNDO is a 5yo
Would have preferred younger
But the fittest horse in the race
Shortest absence most recent runs
 
Selection

£4.25 Each Way JACKAMUNDO 8/1

£1.50 Win Bet LOCHANTHEM 13/2 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5





Newcastle 5.00

10/11 Lindwall, 11/2 Tomorrow's Angel, 8/1 Metal Man
8/1 Victoriano, 10/1 Echo, Nataleena, 12/1 Wemyss Point
16/1 Niven, 20/1 Globetrotter, Thawry, 33/1 Freewheelin
33/1 Reassurance, Tykenwear.

2m Handicap

Short priced hotpot here

LINDWALL a 3 year old

Won convincingly 5 days ago

Market experts him to follow up
I would have to agree with that
But there are limited rewards
So split staking this handicap

WEMYSS POINT is rejected
As a 9 year old off 147 days
ECHO is also resistible
Topweight and off 190 days
NIVEN an 8yo absent 136 days

VICTORIANO is drawn 1

Newcastle
All races over 2 miles
Since the track opened
With 7 or more runners
Horses drawn in stall 1
Only have a 1-82 record
I'd swerve him drawn 1 

TOMORROW'S ANGEL a 6yo
Looks an exposed class 6 type
GLOBETROTTER may not stay

METAL MAN has a chance
23 of his 24 runs in Ireland
Recently downgraded yards
Sold for 8k to an English stable

Career best runs on the flat
Were Racing Post Ratings of 60
Not a great standard after 12 runs
Looks a Class 6 type rated 51
Wrong half the weights for me
Prefer classier higher rated

NATALEENA

Her Haydock run last time
Came in a 0-85 turf handicap
This is a far easier 0-63 race
She could be the danger

Selection

Betfair Prices

£5.00 Win Bet NATALEENA 9/1

£5.00 Win Bet LINDWALL 10/11







Newcastle 6.00

6/4 Neptunian, 7/2 Pink Crystal, 4/1 Foxy Rascal
9/1 Espressoo, 10/1 Midheaven, 12/1 Lucky Lucky Lucky
16/1 Sydney Bay, Tilly The Filly, 40/1 Paradise Of Love
40/1 Top Notch Tommy, 50/1 Ha Long Bay
50/1 Hoi An Beach, 66/1 Lethal Vision.

2yo Novice 6f

Not much to say here

FOXY RASCAL has 2 runs
She won here last time out

NEPTUNIAN has raced once
Good run on a Grade 1 track
Can argue he sets the standard
Will stall 14 be a big problem ?

Newcastle
Any distance
Any race
Since the track opened
 
No horse with under 2 runs
Has won drawn 13 or more
So far 33 tried none have won
NEPTUNIAN fails this statistic
This does put me off him a bit

PINK CRYSTAL an unraced filly
Could win but no strong support

FOXY RASCAL with her 2 runs 
Looks a clear positive here

ESPRESSOO is also interesting

Her debut was fine
Nothing special there
But it was hamilton over 6f

If you look at her sire

Unraced fillies
Any age
Sired by Dark Angel
Running over 6f or more
On Ground softer than good
Have a 0-81record in them

She was one of the 53rd to try
None like her had managed it
So feel we need to upgrade her

That puts her right in the mix


Selection

ESPRESSOO 9/1-10/1-11/1
 
Each Way







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES    


Start of a fresh week

Main Highlight 

Saturday

Ascot

Champions Day

Covering this early week

Snapshot of every race

Half of them done today

Half of them Wednesday




Tennis

Emma Raducanu

Interested to see recently
In the Indian Wells Masters
She was beaten in round 1

My annual prediction

No Grand Slam wins in 2022
No Grand Slam finals in 2022

Serena Williams had to wait
After winning her 1st major
Raducanu may do the same   

Her position has changed
Other players will target her
Expectation and pressure
Will now all flip against her

One longer term prediction
Racing an extinction sport
Will be extinct within 7 years

Appreciate many will believe
That is a ridiculous prediction
Let us hope it stays that way

If the true price was 1000/1 
With developing world issues
I'd have cut it now to 500/1 


Saturday

Champions Day

Races 1-2-3

Brief snapshot below


Ascot 1.20
 
7/4 Trueshan 4/1 Stradivarius 5/1 Hamish
5/1 Search For A Song, 7/1 Baron Samedi
10/1 Manobo, 10/1 Mojo Star, 10/1 Princess Zoe
12/1 Fujaira Prince, 14/1 Berkshire Rocco
16/1 The Mediterranean, 20/1 Nayef Road
20/1 Passion, 25/1 Lismore, 25/1 Emperor Of The Sun
25/1 Japan, 25/1 Master Of Reality
25/1 Micro Manage

Main issue here

Horses coming from France

Prix Du Cadran 14 days ago

TRUESHAN won that race
STRADIVARIOUS was 2nd

Will this race leave it's mark
Will they even run here ?

STRADIVARIUS last year
Hammered at 11/10 in this
After coming from France
Warning sign it is a problem

HAMISH priced around 5/1
Comes up from a 1m 4f race

10 Past renewals
All 10 came from 1m 6f +
Thats his statistical failing
HAMISH does have issues

Could be each way options

The Irish St Leger
Provided these past winners
2011 2013 2017 2019 

Brings these into play

BARON SAMEDI
SEARCH FOR A SONG

Running plans unknown
The final shape of the race
Will determine the strategy
An each way much riskier
If all the big runs take part 
Right now the Irish Leger
Looks a sensible pathway 


Ascot 2.00

4/1 Art Power, 6/1 Dragon Symbol, 6/1 Rohaan
8/1 Creative Force, 12/1 Kinross 12/1 Glass Slippers
14/1 Minzaal, 14/1 Romantic Proposal
20/1 Twilight Spinner, 20/1 Glen Shiel, 20/1 Happy Romance
25/1 Thunder Moon, 25/1 Gustavus Weston
33/1 Happy Power

Champions Sprint Stakes

Group 1 (6f)

 
Official Ratings  

115 Kinross
114 Art Power
114 Dragon Symbol
114 Rohaan
113 Creative Force
113 Glen Shiel

Little between these types

KINROSS highest rated
But ran in France recently
Not convinced he will run

MINZAAL is underraced
GLEN SHIEL the wrong age

ROHANN is a 3yo
He has 17 career runs

Horses aged 3 are 3-47
All 3 were far lighter raced
None came from 5f either
Will probably oppose him

DRAGON SYMBOL a 3yo
Faces similar problems
He will not be bomb proof
But could still play a role

GLASS SLIPPERS unreadable
Having just come from France
Too early to take a view here

Best Trial race
Haydocks Sprint Cup
The following ran there
 
CREATIVE FORCE
HAPPY ROMANCE

Both need keeping onside

Could be a draw advantage
 
May need there to be one

Ascot 2.35

3/1 Free Wind 3/1 La Petite Coco
4/1 Love 6/1 Search For A Song 8/1 Snowfall 
8/1  Albaflora 10/1 Invite 12/1 Eshaada
25/1 Tribal Craft 33/1 Lady Hayes
33/1 Mystery Angel
 
Champions Fillies & Mares 

Group 1 race (12f)

Rarely cover this race

Horses aged 5 or older
Have never won this race
Doubtful it helps us much

SEARCH FOR A SONG a 5yo
The main casualty of that stat

SNOWFALL ran in the Arc
Surely she won't run here 

The Draw should be in play 
Quite a Sweeping early turn
Damages the higher numbers
But not many are left in this
Maybe only the highest draw
Will be able to be challenged
 
Best profile 
Horses aged 3
Absent over a month
Under 13 career starts

Quite a basic profile
The last 4 winners had it
6 of the last 7 winners did
9 of the last 14 winners did

Horses still entered

Sharing the best profile

33/1 Lady Hayes
3/1 La Petite Coco
10/1 Invite 
3/1 Free Wind 
12/1 Eshaada

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