4 Previews
0 Bet Today 


No Staked Bet 
  





Today's Message 
 
Run into some smaller fields 
Not clear why it's happened
But much of it best avoided
 
This is 10 messages in a row
With 3 serious days coming up
Going to back right off today
Just 4 previews none staked



Tomorrow
Looks and feels like Saturday
Every chance of a staked bet

Not today though



Not sure about the best bet

This is an unpleasant option
 
Tipperary 2.00 - Easca Peasca 9/4

Tipperary 2.35 - Leac An Scail Lady 6/4-13/8-7/4

Each Way Double

Instead

Going with a harder option

Big priced bet




Today's Best Bet


Market Rasen 1.45

FORT DE L'OCEAN 10/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4


Smaller stakes only

Not much on offer today






Preview Selections  


Market Rasen 1.45
Fort De L'Ocean 10/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
 
Wolverhampton 1.55
Peachey Carnehan 7/2
Each Way
 
Tipperary 2.00
Easca Peasca 9/4
Win Bet

Tipperary 2.35
Leac An Scail Lady 6/4-13/8-7/4
Win Bet





Yesterday's Review 
  
Managed 1 winner yesterday
Not a great return in 6 races
Not worried about the opener
Was left with the replacement 
Rather than an original choice
Chicago Black Hawk 5/1 failed
Felt he was the strongest bet
He ran very well for a long way
But couldn't finish well enough
Amalfi Coast was the 1 winner
Thought the remaining 2 races
Were just not very well staked
Mo Henry was a win bet at 12/1
He never wins usually places
Thought that was badly staked
As was the Tynecastle Park bet
I should have gone each way
Felt there were many mistakes







PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Market Rasen 1.45

11/4 Oasis Prince, 5/1 Dragon Khan, 7/1 Numbers Man
7/1 Serjeant Painter, 8/1 Tamaris, 10/1 Bowser, Fubar
12/1 Fort De L'Ocean, Just Marvin, 16/1 Major Snugfit
33/1 Fast Deal, Head High, 50/1 Wishful Thinking
66/1 Glacier Fox.

2m Handicap Hurdle

Your ideal profile here
Based on all past renewals
Based on other similar races 

6 year old
Under 15 hurdle runs
Coming from 2m 3f or less
Horses with this profile
Have an encouraging 8-26 record 
There are a couple that fit this

This may not take much winning
NUMBERS MAN has had 3 races
Lightly raced from a maiden hurdle
Not sure thats ideal with topweight
Also having 71 days off the track

Similar Handicaps in May
Horses with under 4 runs
Running this season
But not within 23 days
Have a 0-34 record in them
NUMBERS MAN fails this angle

TAMARIS is only a 4yo
He faces 52 days absence
Only 1 run in the last 171 days
Could easily be underraced

BOWSER drops from 2m 6f to 2m
Can not match him to any winner
FUBAR drops down from 2m 5f
Has not been in form recently
Needs to bounce back to take it
MAJOR SNUGFIT is a 5 year old
Having raced once in 6 months
None his age as exposed as him

JUST MARVIN could pop up
Even with 191 days absence
We'd be unlucky if he beat us  
DRAGON KHAN is 12 years old
Twice the age of the ideal profile

OASIS PRINCE has a chance
He is an exposed 5 year old
Lot of weight for such a horse

Shortlist

SERJEANT PAINTER 13/2
FORT DE L'OCEAN 10/1

SERJEANT PAINTER

Leaves me cold
Starting 100/1 in a Novice Seller
But he does fit the right profile
And has a big stable upgrade
From a yard without any winners
So his will start improving soon
That may just come next time

FORT DE L'OCEAN is a 6yo
Given he is 6 with 9 hurdle runs
He has a decent and safe profile
He was entitled to need last time

Hard to predict his performance
But conditions give him a chance

Selection

FORT DE L'OCEAN 10/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Wolverhampton 1.55

11/4 Tavrina, 4/1 Peachey Carnehan 9/2 Musee D'orsay
7/1 Cappadocia, 7/1  Miracle Garden, 12/1 Eddiebet
16/1 Back From Dubai, 20/1 Castlehill Retreat, Falcao
20/1 Outtake, 25/1 Surewecan, 40/1 Jazz Music.
 
7f Classified Stakes

Several have chances
 
PEACHEY CARNEHAM is interesting
This is his 5th run since October 2020
Hoping he is now fit enough to win 
Has a strong record with recent runs

PEACHEY CARNEHAM

9 career wins
8 came with these conditions

Run within 2 weeks
Class 5 or lower
Under 14 runners
PEACHEY CARNEHAM has that today
Should be in a class he can overcome

TAVRINA is a mare
Only had 11 career starts
Not many like her win these races

Racing Post Ratings show

TAVRINA has a career best figure of 58
MUSEE D'ORSAY a career best of 55

CAPPADOCIA is 11 years old
He has 67 days off the track
Just 3 runs now in 16 months

Classified Stakes races 
Any distance
Any time of year
Show the last horse aged 11 +
Winning without a run in 4 weeks
Was back over 1m 4f in 2009
He could be underaced in this

CASTLE RETREAT is a 4yo
He has 92 days off the track
He has raced once in 143 days
BACK FROM DUBAI also a 4yo
He lacks a recent run as well
Also has to come from a 5f race

Shortlist


PEACHEY CARNEHAM
MIRACLE GARDEN 
 
MIRACLE GARDEN is respected
He has never won over 7f before
But has several run runs at this trip

Selection

PEACHEY CARNEHAM 7/2

Each Way





Tipperary 2.00

4/5 Dark Voyager, 9/2 Easca Peasca, 9/1 Fraternity
9/1 Knight Of Malta, 14/1 Raamez, 20/1 Blackberry Jack
20/1 Duffys Getaway, 22/1 Ten Minutes, 25/1 Fairly Bold
25/1 Mystery Mac, 28/1 Kingston Kid, Roma Delight
33/1 Conkerall, Denver Canning, Little Brown Mouse
40/1 Lamberton Legend.

Maiden hurdle 2m

DARK VOYAGER is a 4yo
He was described last year  
As a nice long term prospect

Last seen in a hurdle 144 days ago
My angles suggest we oppose him
Easier said than done from Mullins
But he fails this statistic

May and June
Maiden Hurdles
Any and every distance
Since 1999

Horses aged 4
Over 7 career starts
Coming from a hurdle
Absent over 83 days
Have a 0-73 record in them
DARK VOYAGER fails this

Won't be surprised at all
If Mullins wins with him
But there is an alternative


EASCA PEASCA another 4yo
Has some decent hurdle runs
Nothing to find on the figures

Maybe one of those bets
Where you often feel stupid
When the negative hacks up
So not getting too excited here
But there is a 22 year statistic
Suggesting the favourite is unsafe

Selection

EASCA PEASCA 9/4

Win Bet




Tipperary 2.35

5/2 Leac An Scail Lady, 100/30 Glory For Molly
7/2 Brampton Belle, 4/1 Newtown Pery, 7/1 Robyndeglory
12/1 Moylass, 20/1 Rosy Story, 33/1 Some Venture
40/1 Leading Prospect, Present Road, Union Rock
50/1 Stoneyford Cassie, 66/1 Fly Little Bird
66/1 I Sea The Moon, Lady Day Dingle
150/1 The Cilleens.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

LEAC AN SCAIL LADY is a 5yo
She has 3 hurdle runs so far
Has not set a great standard
But she should be competitive

GOLLY FOR MOLLY

Hurdling debut last time
Ran a decent second place
Possible winner on that run

But 250/1 on her debut ?

That does put me off her
She may have been flattered

Mares maiden hurdles
Any distance
Any time of year
From 2007 
Horses with 1 hurdle run
Starting over 100/1 last time
On their hurdling debut
Have a 0-280 record next time
GOLLY FOR MOLLY fails this

To be fair few were fancied
And it is an obscure statistic
But it surely suggests last time
There was no confidence in her

LEAC AN SCAIL LADY is safer
She is more experienced too

The 3rd favourite
BRAMPTON BELLE is unraced
A Stablemate of Leac An Scail Lady
Rachel Blackmore turned her down
Choosing to ride the favourite
MOYLASS has a poor profile
As an 8yo with a huge absence

ROBYNDEGLORY has a chance
Can not match her to any winner

NEWTON PERY can improve
Not a great profile but not dead
She will love the step up in trip
She looks the biggest danger

LEAC AN SCAIL LADY for me
Felt she bounced 2 runs ago
Last time met a better horse
Who had far more experience

Selection

LEAC AN SCAIL LADY 6/4-13/8-7/4

Win Bet






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES   


Saturday

York 3.50

13/2 Copper Knight 7/1 Jabbarockie 15/2 Mondammej
15/2 Pendleton 8/1 Mulzim 8/1 Desert Safari 10/1 Mountain Peak
11/1 Hurricane Ivor 11/1 Count d'Orsay 12/1 Zargun 12/1 Makanah
14/1 Spoof 14/1 Justanotherbottle 16/1 Sunday Sovereign
16/1 Son And Sannie 18/1 Exalted Angel 20/1 Ishvara
20/1 Ornate 20/1 Dave Dexter 25/1 Duke of Firenze
  
Previewed this yesterday 
Declarations are out shortly
We will know the draw as well

Best Backed horse

MONDAMMEJ

Backed from 7/1 to 5/1

The angle he fails in this race

MONDAMMEJ has 8 races
20 of the Past 21 winners
Had at least 11 career runs
 
Horses aged 4
Under 11 career starts
Have a 0-26 record in this

He ran 9 days ago
We had a part stake on him
Will not be surprised if he wins

But he fails another 2 angles

Class 2 Handicaps (6f)
Run on turf
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Under 10 career runs
Running within 12 days
Have a 0-44 record in them
MONDAMMEJ also fails this

6f Handicaps
Run in Class 3 or higher
With 8 or more runners
Horses aged 4
Under 9 career runs
Running within 12 days
Have a 0-37 record in them
MONDAMMEJ also fails this


Once we know the field
And the draw later today

We can look at this race
As one that may provide a bet

There are plenty others too
Saturday is rich in handicaps





Royal Ascot


26 Days away

Coming up quite fast

Early look at the big race


Ascot

June 17th

Ascot Gold Cup

6/4 Stradivarius 5/1Subjectivist 8/1 Trueshan
10/1 Tiger Moth 10/1 Ocean Wind 10/1 Sir Ron Priestley
12/1 Santiago 12/1 Spanish Mission 14/1 Search For A Song
14/1Baron Samedi 14/1 Emperor of The Sun 16/1 Twilight Payment
20/1 Amhran Na Bhfiann 20/1 Princess Zoe 20/1 Nayef Road
20/1 Believe In Love
 
STRADIVARIUS

Won this 2018 2019 2020

Not a favourite of mine
Rarely bet or tip the horse
He is usually far too short

Rarely oppose him either
Because he is just too good 
So most of his career so far
I have just been a bystander

Racing Post Pricewise
Covered this race yesterday
TRUESHAN is their horse

TRUESHAN

Won a G1 here last October 
Stradivarius flopped that day
And to be fair 13 days earlier
He ran in the Arc de Triomphe
Stradivarius had an excuse

TRUESHAN  
Has now won a Group 1 race
Over 2 miles on soft ground 
The Gold Cup is a 2m 4f race
And if you look at the damsire
He has a stamina index of 6f 
Must be a stamina concern
When you consider his sire
Has never bred any winners
That won further than 2 miles 
TRUESHAN has this to prove
Having raced once in 243 days

SUBJECTIVIST is a 4yo
He has an 82 day absence 

Past winners absences

13 34 28 13 21 32 50 
50 18 92 53 53 22 242

Rite of Passage (2010) had 92 days off
Yeats (2005) had 242 days off that year
But neither of these were 4 year olds

I'd be against this pair

Have not looked at many others

With the 2nd+ 3rd favourites
Having flaws in their profiles
 
STRADIVARIUS looks stronger

He could be an ideal bet

To put with Bolshoi Ballet

Derby - Bolshoi Ballet 7/4
Gold Cup - Stradivarius 6/4

This bet
Provided a lot of cushion

If both horses run to their best
Hard to see either being unplaced

That's one strategy

Another 

Buy Stradivarius out of the race
Make him a saver bet around 6/4

With a bigger priced selection

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