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Today's Racing     


Only 3 meetings 
All a bit scrappy really

Worcester has large fields
Too many handicap races

Pontefract has 2 previews
Nothing too exciting there

Hexham 2 interesting races
With the best angles there


Been quite a hectic week

Going to calm it down today

Start to plan the next week




I like my best bet

Theory based so unsure

But it's the only one I endorse




Today's Best Bet  


Hexham 2.45

£7.00 Win Bet RECENT REVELATIONS 9/2

£3.00 Win Bet MING DYNASTY 9/4








Preview Selections 


Hexham 2.45
£7.00 Win Bet Recent Revelations 9/2
£3.00 Win Bet Ming Dynasty 5/2 

Pontefract 3.25
£7.00 Win Bet Eileendover 7/1-6/1
£3.00 Win Bet Urban Artist 9/4

Pontefract 3.55
£7.00 Win Bet Neverbeen To Paris 7/1
£3.00 Win Bet Selsey Sizzler 9/4-5/2

Hexham 4.15
£5.00 Win Bet Lanty Slea 100/30-7/2
£5.00 Place Bet O Connell Street 10/11-1/1






Yesterday's Review
      
Returned to the main account 
SCHMIDT came 2nd each way
Ran a brave and brilliant race
Almost led from start to finish
Only beaten in the dying stride
Not too sure how he was beat
Looked good matched at 1.07
But in the end he just got done
Frustrating but all stakes saved
It was a well planned message
I had limited Ascot expectations
Tried to get the profit elsewhere
Non Ascot races went P P W P
Had no losers at other courses
Sword Of Fate the sole winner 
Gave us protection from Ascot 
We'd built a good enough lead
If the last previews didn't win
They didn't as we ended badly
That included the Wokingham
Both our horses higher drawn
Ended up on the wrong side
Those horses drawn our side
Never got into the race at all
Lampang finished 1st our side 
Ropey Guest was 2nd as well
Had high numbers dominated
We would have done far better
I would see it a break level day
Preview results finished level
So to was the main staked bet
Creditable day and so unlucky
To get done with the main bet
Breaking level and not winning

   



PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
  




Hexham 2.45

5/4 Ash Hill, 2/1 Ming Dynasty
100/30 Recent Revelations, 12/1 Fisher Green
66/1 Exit Ten.

Beginners Chase 2m

Chase runs

6 Ming Dynasty
6 Recent Revelations
1 Ash Hill

ASH HILL could be odds on
Despite having 1 chase race
And much less experience
Than his main market rivals

May not be a massive problem
Not keen on a stable downgrade
Joseph O'Brien to Lucinda Russell
But my biggest problem with him
He could be on the bounce here

ASH HILL comes back 14 days 
After a massive 634 day absence

June
Novice and Beginners Chases
Any distance
Horses with 1 run in 12 + months
Running within 3 weeks
Have a modest 1-41 record in them
That winner an 8yo over further

This is much better

Go back to 2008 
Novice and Beginners Chases
Run over 2m 3f or shorter 
Run at any time or the year 
Horses with 1 run in 12 + months
Running within 18 days
Have a 0-58 record
ASH HILL has this 0-58 profile
Feels like it's evidence of the bounce
Going to oppose him in this race


RECENT REVELATIONS

Some good and bad runs
Looks inconsistent and unreliable
May be an answer to this

Could it be his stamina
His father was a sprinter
His mother was a miler
Who came from a sprinter

Maybe his Irish defeats
On soft ground in big fields
Were just too much for him

Maybe good ground here
In a small field over 1m 7f +
Could be more manageable

That's my theory anyway
MING DYNASTY is a saver
Looks the way to play this
Taking on a possible bouncer

Selection 

£7.00 Win Bet RECENT REVELATIONS 7/2

£3.00 Win Bet MING DYNASTY 9/4







Pontefract 3.25

11/4 Urban Artist, 9/2 Katara, 11/2 Queen Daenerys
7/1 Black Lotus, Eileendover, 8/1 Golden Pass
10/1 Camphor, Inchicore, 14/1 Salsada.    

12f Listed race 

Fillies and Mares

This race
Goes back to 2005

Draw bias even over 12f
Even in a small field too

Pontefract 12f races
Under 10 runners
Horses drawn in stall 9
Have a 1-25 record since 2000
Have a 0-17 record since 2007
QUEEN DAENERYS fails this
 
Pontefract 12f races
Under 12 runners
Since 2008
Horses drawn 9 or more
Have a 1-54 record in them
QUEEN DAENERYS fails this

Pontefract 12f races
Run in Class 2 or higher
Going back to 1997
Horses drawn 8 or more
Have a 0-10 record
QUEEN DAENERYS fails this

QUEEN DAENERYS is no negative
Many seasonal debutants win this
But that draw does makes it harder


Horses aged 4-5 dominate

Horses aged 6 or more are 0-17

URBAN ARTIST is a 6 year old
Wrong age and 1 run this year
Only 1 past winner had 1 run
URBAN ARTIST on these angles
Does look unsafe and vulnerable

That said

On last time out figures
URBAN ARTIST is well clear
And on sire statistics as well
You can make a good case for her
All horses sired by Cityscape
Running over 1m 5f and more
Have only won with recent runs
Asking a lot of her last time out
To win over 1m 6f first time out
Yet she still has the best figures

BLACK LOTUS is also a 6yo
He could be too exposed for this

Horses with over 15 runs are 0-24
BLACK LOTUS fails this 0-24 angle

CAMPHOR with 19 runs fails it too

KATARA is a 4yo
She has had just 1 run this year
Horses doing this are 1-25
That would be a question mark

GOLDEN PASS has 1 run this year
With 64 days off not a solid profile
 
SALSADA a seasonal debutant
Has no profile issues statistically 
But every chance she needs a run

Shortlist

URBAN ARTIST despite doubts
Does need to be shortlisted here
As her positives do compensate


INCHICORE

Was my choice
Now a non runner
SALSADA also pulled out

That messes draw stats up

Preview has now collapsed

Playing it this way

 
Selection

£7.00 Win Bet EILEENDOVER 6/1-7/1
 
£3.00 Win Bet URBAN ARTIST 9/4






Pontefract 3.55

2/1 Selsey Sizzler, 9/2 Let Me Be
5/1 Magna Moralia 8/1 Neverbeen To Paris
12/1 London Eye 20/1 Russian Rumour
20/1 Seagulls Nest, 33/1 Gauntlet.

Staying Handicap 2m 2f

3 Non runners
Had changed this race

No idea how we will get on
 
Pontefract has 48 similar races
Run during the month of June
These races show...

Horses aged 4
Coming from 1m 7f or less
Have a weak 1-52 record

Those absent 9 + days were 0-38
Those with 9 + runs were 0-35 
The following horses fail this
 
MAGNA MORALIA
RUSSIAN RUMPUR
GAUNTLETT

SEAGULLS NEST is a 4yo filly
Not safe enough up in distance

LET ME BE is a 5yo

Had  a good season so far
Winning 4 handicaps since April
His handicap mark has suffered
He is now 25lbs higher rated 25
He has to prove his stamina as well
None by his sire ran beyond 2 miles
Can't rule him out but his hardest test
LONDON EYE ran a stinker last time

NEVER BEEN TO PARIS is shortlisted

SELSEY SIZZLER is shortlisted

His season has won W W 2

His only defeat this year
When he ran into Bollin Neil
Who is a massive improver
Defeat there was no shame at all
Especially when he was badly drawn
He would be most likely winner
But at the prices making him saver

NEVER BEEN TO PARIS the choice

The following profile interests me

Horses aged 6
Coming from 1m 6f races
Beaten under 18 lengths last time
Running within 4 weeks
Have a very good 3-6 record
So he may be worth the risk

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet NEVER BEEN TO PARIS 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet SELSEY SIZZLER 9/4







Hexham 4.15

13/8 The Bomber Liston, 4/1 Grozni
9/2 O Connell Street, 9/2 Lanty Slea, 10/1 Percussion
12/1 Peaceful Sunday, 16/1 Petite Rhapsody
25/1 New Delhi Express, 50/1 Monticello
100/1 Mr Jv, 250/1 Giamas.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

Opposing the favourite

THE BOMBER LISTON

Last seen 212 days ago
Had 2 Bumper runs last Autumn
Comes from sexy connections
The following 3 month statistic
Raises doubts about his chance

June July August

Novice and Maiden Hurdles

Run over 2m 1f and further

Horses from bumpers
Aged under 6 years old
Absent more than 62 days
Have a poor 2-185 record
Both those winners female
Male horses with this profile
Returned a 0-149 record 
THE BOMBER LISTON fails this
Feel we need to oppose him 

PERCUSSION looks too raw
PEACEFUL SUNDAY similar
None of the rags make appeal
Feel we have a choice of three

GROZNI
O CONNELL STREET
LANTY SLEA

GROZNI won a recent bumper
Thats all fine but his main flaw 
He's raced  only once in 155 days 

LANTY SLEA is a 6yo
No strong profile objections

O CONNELL STREET hard to read
Has ability but has had problems
Gaps between plenty of his races

Went from Nicky Henderson
To Gordon Elliot last season

His 2 runs in October 2020
Were both very excusable 

Trainer said he was not 100% fit
He bounced on his 26th Oct run
Not fancied in either of those races

Next Seen February 2021
Topweight in a Naas Handicap Hurdle
Gordon Elliot did not fancy him there
Making the following comments

"Think he will need the run"
"Won't be easy off topweight"
"Might be best watched today"

He then went to Down Royal
Stayed on in a handicap into 3rd
Ran well last time out as well

Looks a sure fire handicap winner
But can he win a maiden hurdle ?

Not always a fluent jumper

LANTY SLEA is a better one

Decided the right stake here
Was to split stake win + place

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet LANTY SLEA 100/30-7/2

£5.00 Place Bet O CONNELL STREET  1/1

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