5 Previews
0 Bet Today 
 
No Staked Bet







Today's Racing  



First message of the week

Tuesday's rarely bountiful
But this isn't too bad a one


Oppressive heat the problem
Very hard to stay focussed

The Bet I wanted to go with
Presents us with 1 problem
  
Chelmsford 6.05 

TWICE AS LIKELY 9/2

Each Way


How safe is this bet
When he is drawn in stall 1
Not necessarily a bad draw
But he is a hold up runner
Who attacks a faster pace
Not had to get traffic issues
And that is my main worry

There was only 1 other bet
Who could be todays best

Wolverhampton 4.30

BASHFUL 7/4-15/8

Win Bet
 
No hiding place with him
Second favourite in a race
Where only 2 horses appeal
Can not be sure about ability
Whether he can beat his rival
But he offers more positives

It was a close call
Decided to go with this race


Today's Best Bet
  
Wolverhampton 4.30

BASHFUL 7/4-15/8

Win Bet





Preview Selections


Ffos Las 1.55
£9.00 Win Bet Whistledown 6/5
£1.00 Saver Bet Ailish T 17/2-8/1

Wolverhampton 2.45
Asdaa 8/1-9/1-10/1
Each Way

Wolverhampton 4.30
Bashful 7/4-15/8
Win Bet

Chelmsford 6.05
Twice As Likely 9/2
Each Way

Nottingham 6.15
Fandabidozi 2/1-9/4 
Win Bet






Yesterday's Review    
 
Sunday was the latest message
Awkward set of cards to handle
Suffered from late non runners
Had to have replacement selections
It was messy and out of control
But the best bet did at least win
Demon D'Aunou won in a canter
He clearly was well handicapped 
Which were my main arguments
Good finish to a far better week






PROFILES & PREVIEWS    
  

Ffos Las 1.55

 6/5 Whistledown, 5/1 Winter Siege
7/1 Ailish T 15/2 Hidden Haven, Mount Rainier
10/1 Power Il Topo, 12/1 Twistaline.

2yo Nursery

Low grade race

WHISTLEDOWN won 4 days ago
Looked a better race than this one

She may be able to follow up here
Take advantage of her momentum

Don't really fully know
The level of her opposition
But on figures she is ahead

AILISH T interests me 
But only really as a saver
Does reduce the profit though
If the favourite wins this race

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet WHISTLEDOWN 6/5

£1.00 Saver Bet AILISH T 17/2-8/1







Wolverhampton 2.45

13/8 Tarroob, 11/4 Prioritise, 8/1 Badlands
8/1 Helm Rock, 9/1 Asdaa, 10/1 Exceedingly Regal,
10/1 International Law, 33/1 Spring Romance.

8f Handicap

TARROOB has topweight

She is a filly
She only has 4 career starts
She has raced once in 218 days
And has 10st weight to carry

To my surprise
I found a winner quite like her
Stops me making her a negative
But this can not be an easy task
And I have to prefer an alternative

PRIORITISE a filly off 48 days
Lightly raced as well with 9st 8lbs
Felt exactly the same about her
Do not like her profile that much
But can match her to a winner

Because of that
Feel we should reduce stakes

ASDAA has the fittest profile

Runs in the last 40 days

4 Asdaa
3 Spring Romance
1 Tarroob
1 Badlands
1 Helm Rock
1 Exceedingly Regal
1 International Law
0 Prioritise

Spring Romance a 33/1 chance
Who has finished last 3 times in a row
Is the only horse in this handicap
With more than 1 run in 40 days
Aside from the fittest horse here

Not sure fitness is the answer here
Some lightly raced fillies may improve
But we have a decent price for the risk
We also have 3 places on our side too
ASDAA will hopefully get at least one

Selection

ASDAA 8/1-9/1-10/1

Each Way







Wolverhampton 4.30

10/11 Bascule, 13/8 Bashful, 6/1 Samara Star
20/1 Jerriais, 40/1 Flamingo Rose, 40/1 Hanafy
66/1 Fort Nelson

12f Novice

Market prefers 2 horses

That sounds very plausible

SAMARA STAR is a filly
And has her career debut today
Hardly encouraging breeding stats

Horses sired by Adaay
Running over 8f or more
With under 4 career runs
Have a 0-30 record so far
All 30 lost and this is 12f
SAMARA STAR is unsafe

BASCULE is favourite
May be the best long term prospect
But he is going up 4 furlongs today

June July August
Novice races over 12f
Horses aged 3
Coming from 8f or shorter
Having run this season
Have a 0-11 record so far
Not a great stat but none won
BASCULE is the 12th to try this

Can not be sure he will get this far
BASHFULL in contrast steps up 2f
And with Manduro as the damsire
Surely needs every yard of 12 and more

BASHFULL has a more recent run
He has raced 3 times now in 50 days 
BASCULE has 1 run in 213 days

Despite the market
BASHFULL offers some positives
BASCULE offers far more doubts

Selection
 
BASHFULL 7/4-15/8

Win Bet





Chelmsford 6.05

11/4 Breezyandbright, 6/1 Porfin, 13/2 Tarseekh
7/1 Twice As Likely, 8/1 Pina Collada, 9/1 Jack Ryan
11/1 Irish Times, 16/1 Who Told Jo Jo, 20/1 Catapult
20/1 Jungle Boogaloo, 20/1 Signorinadoro
25/1 Skedaddled.

Apprentice Handicap 6f

Not many of these horses

Offer the usual requirements
You would want in a a 6f sprint
With apprentice riders

Such as several recent runs
Decent competitive numbers
Enough experience to compete
No major draw concerns

JACK RYAN fails on his figures
Not running well for 2nd topweight
SIGNORINADORO has just 3 runs
Falls down on his inexperience
SKEDADDLED has not done enough
TARSEEKH is very short of races
Having raced once in 103 days now

PORFIN has a reasonable profile
But one of the least experienced pilots
And stall 12 is not a great draw

Chelmsford 6f races
Since the track opened
Horses aged 3
More than 3 career starts
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-48 record in them
PORFIN now looks too risky 

PINA COLLADA a filly with 47 days off
Might win but her profile is vulnerable

IRISH TIMES has a chance

BREEZYANDBRIGHT is a positive
I'd argue the fittest profile in the race
Without having a bet compelling one

TWICE AS LIKELY is interesting

Favourite here 3 runs ago
Held up last had traffic problems

On his penultimate start
He was again favourite at Yarmouth
Drawn 12 there badly compromised him

Last time out at Chepstow
The first 4 home drawn 15 13 14 11
TWICE AS LIKELY had a low draw
That killed his chance that day

He could make amends here
Could go won only and saver
But after non runners 
Safest stake is each way

Selection

TWICE AS LIKELY 9/2

Each Way 





Nottingham 6.15

2/1 Crystal Guard, 5/2 Fandabidozi
3/1 Norman Kindu, 7/1 Desert Quest
7/1 Red Flyer.

3yo Handicap 1m 6f

FANDABIDOZI is topweight
He is fit and running quite nicely
Rated 72 he could win this race
Facing horses rated 68 and lower

CRYSTAL GUARD gets 6lbs weight
But he is going up from 10f to 14f

July
3yo Handicaps 1m 6f
Horses from 1m 2f or shorter
Have a underperforming 1-44 record
Those running within 5 weeks are 0-32
CRYSTAL GUARD fails this

June July August
3yo Handicaps 
Run over 1m 6f
Horses from 1m 2f or shorter
Running within 20 days
Have a weak 1-71 record
If we look at that record
Male horses doing it were 0-43
Horses with under 10 runs are 0-66
CRYSTAL GUARD fails this too 
He may win in a small field
But his profile is very weak

NORMAN KINDU has 7 runs
He also has 48 days absence

Horses with over 5 runs
Absent more than 40 days
Do not score well in them
During July they are 0-18
During July and August 0-39
During June to August 1-46

Neither he or the others
Offer enough to tempt me away
From the topweight and class horse

Selection

FANDABIDOZI 2/1-9/4

Win Bet

 




FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 


This week


King George V1 week

Not a significant race for us


Target race


Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon

International Stakes Handicap

Full set of statistics below


May add to this list 

York has a sprint handicap
Might be able to get sorted


Last week

Mainly about recovery

Had previous lost momentum
Having not taken any time off
Overcooked and got too stale

Only 1 account bet this week

That was Saturdays 7/1 loser

Messages were much better

The day's best bets did well

Won 5/2 
Placed 4/1
Lost
Lost
Won 9/1

Happy with last weeks results
Appreciate these were unstaked
But after a poor week I'm happier





Saturday

Ascot 2.25

Moet & Chandon

International Stakes Handicap

8/1 Motakhayyel 10/1 Matthew Flinders 10/1 Danyah
12/1 Tinker Toy 12/1 Highfield Princess 12/1 Path of Thunder
12/1 Perotto 14/1 Ametist 14/1 Kynren 14/1 Aldaary
16/1 Jumaira Bay 16/1 Oo de Lally 16/1 Lord Rapscallion
16/1 Cliffs of Capri 16/1 Dark Shift 16/1 Hong Kong Harry
16/1 Persuasion 20/1 Red Mirage 20/1 Raising Sand
20/1 Escobar 20/1 Dance Fever 20/1 Oh This Is Us
20/1 Accidental Agent 20/1 Fox Champion 20/1 Acquitted
25/1 Boardman 25/1 Shine So Bright 25/1 Symbolize
25/1 Tawleed 25/1 Lampang 25/1 Spycatcher 25/1 Tomfre
25/1 Kimifive 25/1 Beat Le Bon 25/1 National League
25/1 Star of Orion 25/1 Verhoyen 25/1 Shelir 25/1 Cruyff Turn
25/1 Mums Tipple  28/1 Jack's Point 33/1 Ebury 33/1 Zip 
33/1 Ropey Guest  33/1 King's Knight 33/1 Documenting
33/1 Epic Endeavour 33/1 Gabrial The Wire 33/1 Greenside
33/1 Turn On The Charm 33/1 Eagleway 33/1 Karibana
33/1 Royal Scimitar 33/1 Society Lion 33/1 Stone Soldier
33/1 Another Batt 33/1 Master Zoffany  33/1 Starshiba  
33/1 Tinto  33/1 Count Otto 33/1 Great News
40/1 Harrison Point 40/1 Musicality 40/1 Tadleel
40/1 Corvair 50/1 Marshal Dan 50/1 Pistoletto
50/1 Equiano Springs 50/1 Just Frank

 
Traditionally the ideal Profile 
Has not landed this in 3 years 
This year it needs to be right
 
Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
If the horse has 9 or more runs
At least 3 runs since late April
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

The Draw

Recent 1-2-3-4 

19 18 20 12
21 23 27 26
11 18 16 29
14 26 17 20
14 22 2 6

Middle high seem best 
Since the stalls renumbered
Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
Have a 1-80 record in this race
Horses aged under 5
Drawn 12 or lower
Have a 0-50 record since 2011
 
Age

Horses aged 3
Have a 1-54 record  
Do not score well in this

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a poor 2-141 record

Both winners came in last 3 years
Which has to be considered as well 
The only winners aged 6 or more
Both ran very well in good trial races
Horses aged 6 or more
Beaten 3 or more lengths last time
Have a 0-87 record in this handicap


Preparation
 
Horses from Listed or Group races
Have a poor 0-60 record since 2000
 
Horses coming from 6f of shorter 
Have a 3-94 record since 2000
That included last years winner
Who came from the Wokingham

2 of the 3 winners from 6f
Came from the Wokingham handicap 
Horses from other 6f races are 1-80

Horses from 6f races
Winning last time are 0-14
Aged 6 or more are 0-29
With over 9st weight are 0-25
Beaten over 5 lengths are 0-36
 
Absence

Longest absent winner 38 days
Those absent longer are 0-53
Longer than 6 weeks a problem
 
Recent runs

Horses with over 8 runs
Have not yet won this handicap
With under 2 runs in the last 12 weeks
  
No horse won after a heavy defeat
Those beaten over 15 lengths 0-31


Jockeys

Claiming riders
With 5lbs or more alowances
Have a 0-41 record in this race
    
  
 Weight

Horses with 9st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-13 record in the race

Horses with 9st 3lbs or more
Have a worrying 2-77 record
Both horses ran at Royal Ascot
Finishing 3rd + 5th in a handicap
Both horses were rated 103 + 104

Horses with 8st 8lbs or less
Have a 1-81 record since 2011

Trial races

Best trial race the Bunbury Cup
7 past winners came from there
Including 3 of the last 6 winners

3 past winners
Came from the Hunt Cup

Horses from York
Running 14 days ago
Have a 0-20 record in this

*********************************************************
*********************************************************