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Today's Racing
  
York only day with 6 previews  
Saturday will spread our wings 
With a staked bet the main plan

Technically a good message
And the best so far this week
These are tough races to do
So a high strike rare unlikely

Hard to judge the week so far
We started with a 16/1 winner
Clear contrast from yesterday
With a shameful Stratford bet



I want to suggest one bet

Decent price 

Just have to rely on his trainer

To produce him here at his best

Back on the account tomorrow





Today's Best Bet

 
York 1.50
 
£4.50 Each Way THORNE HALL 10/1
 
£1.00 Win Bet HMS PRESIDENT 8/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Preview Selections

York 1.50
£4.50 Each Way Throne Hall 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet HMS President 9/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

York 2.25
£7.00 Win Bet Trueshan 5/2
£3.00 Win Bet Spanish Mission 5/2

York 3.00
£6.00 Win Bet Gis A Sub 12/1
£3.00 Win Bet Lusail 11/4-3/1
£1.00 Win Bet Orazio 8/1

York 3.35
Winter Power 13/2-7/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

York 4.10
£6.50 Win Bet Brazilian Beach 10/1
£3.50 Win Bet Broadspear 2/1-9/4

York 5.10
£4.00 Each Way Rifleman 10/1-11/1
£1.00 Win Bet Raadobarg 10/1-11/1
£1.00 Win Bet Marsabit 12/1-14/1






Yesterday's Review
 
Landed the opening winner
Zain Claudette a good start
Helped to cushion the blow
Of the disaster at Stratford
No idea what happened here
My 2 percentage bet choices
Were beaten miles in the race
And my 11yo negative won it
The curse of tiny fields struck
Perhaps I overrated this pair
Possibly the ground caused it
Either way it was a vile result
Was about to curl up in a ball
And cry my way out of things
But we landed the next winner
Ever Given offered us comfort
Stratford's shame and misery
Sandwiched between 2 winners
Could have been a lot worse
But nothing back afterwards
Maydanny's race was a shock
The 28/1 winner so unfindable
Abstinence was a non runner
He just did not enter the stalls
So you get £6 stakes refunded
Nothing back in the final race
Huraiz one badly drifting loser
It was not a great day overall
The first two winners at York
Only offered some mild respite
From the sad Stratford shame
 
  

PROFILES & PREVIEWS  



York 1.50

9/2 Wink Of An Eye, 8/1 My Frankel 9/1 Johnny Drama
9/1 State Of Bliss, 10/1 Dark Jedi 11/1 Midnights Legacy
11/1 Throne Hall, 12/1 Sam Cooke 14/1 HMS President
14/1 Scarlet Dragon, 16/1 Restorer 20/1 Glasses Up
20/1 Rhythmic Intent  25/1 Pirate King, 
66/1 Red Force One.

12f Handicap

16 past renewals
 
One of the best angles in this

Horses with over 24 career runs
Have a 0-58 record in this race

Horses with over 16 career runs
Have a 1-109 record in this race

Not a race for exposed horses 
The following all fail this statistic

RESTORER
SCARLET DRAGON
RED FORCE ONE
PIRATE KING
GLASSES UP
DARK JEDI 
RHYTHMIC INTENT
JOHNNY DRAMA 
 
JOHNNY DRAMA has topweight
He will need a career best to win
His sires runners over 11f or more
Running in Class 2 or higher races
Have only won one previous race
That sole race had 5 runners in it
Not the safest of breeding stats
 
August and September
Class 2 Handicaps 
Run between 1m 3f and 1m 5f
Run since 1999
Horses aged 8 or more are 0-43 
RESTORER fails this statistic
SCARLET DRAGON fails it too
  
WINK OF AN EYE is a 3yo

STATE OF BLISS is a 3yo

Horses aged 3 can win
But they are 0-16 since 2009

The 3yo winners before 2009
All came from Class 2 or higher

WINK OF AN EYE does not do this
STATE OF BLISS does not either

These are lightweights
Carrying 8st 3lbs and 8st 4lbs
No horse has won this handicap
With less weight than 8st 8lbs
Both 3 year olds fail this angle
STATE OF BLISS is also drawn 18
Higher than all previous winners

York 12f races
Run since 2015
Horses drawn 14 or higher
Have a 0-74 record in them

STATE OF BLISS drawn 18 fails this
MY FRANKEL has a bad draw too
Comes here hammered last time   
 
SAM COOKE is respected
Could easily shortlist him
But He is a 5 year old 
Horses aged 4 are far better
And I have so many of them


Last years winner
Was a seasonal debutant

The runner up last year
Was the only profile horse
And our each way bet too

Last years selection

Was based on this ideal profile

Horses aged 4
Between 3 and 16 runs
Absent 15-65 days
Beaten <20 lengths last time
2 or more runs in 12 weeks
Horses with this profile
Have a 11-44 record in this

They won this in these years

2005 2007 2010 2012 2014
Won both divisions in 2015
Also won in 2016 2017 2018

This year

2 horses have this profile

HMS PRESIDENT 
MIDNIGHTS LEGACY

STRAWBERRY ROCK is out
Rejected already on his high draw
Trainer says he might not run
If the ground looks too fast

MIDNIGHTS LEGACY is a 4yo
Looks like a tough handicap mark

HMS PRESIDENT could take this
There are 2 little niggles with him
Stall 14 is a bit higher than ideal
And 16 career runs a bit exposed
Its the highest acceptable draw
Highest acceptable number of runs
And he combines both of these
Because of two non runners
Making him the saver bet

THORNE HALL 

Only a heavy defeat last time
Takes him off the ideal profile
But he does have excuses
Ignore his last run on the ground
He has a lovely profile otherwise 
But you can't predict this stable

Look at this race since 2010

Horses aged 4
With 8-9-10-11 career runs
Absent more than 35 days
Have a 5-10 record since then
THORNE HALL has this profile

We are getting a good price
But we are relying on Kevin Ryan
To do his job and get him spot on
This is one of the few tracks
I am prepared to trust him on

Selection

£4.50 Each Way THORNE HALL 10/1
 
£1.00 Win Bet HMS PRESIDENT 8/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







York 2.25

11/10 Stradivarius, 5/2 Trueshan
3/1 Spanish Mission, 10/1 Stratum
40/1 The Grand Visir.
 
Lonsdale Cup Stakes

Not really my cup of tea

STRADIVARIUS is a 7yo
He has 64 days absence

The last 7yo to win this
Was some way back in 2006

No horse aged 7 or more
Has won this with an absence
Or more than 31 days before
STRADIVARIUS has 64 days off

Go back to 1999
Group 1 and Group 2 races
Run over 2 miles or more
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 53 days
Have a modest 1-49 record
The only winner was 2009
Geordieland won during May

STRADIVARIUS as a 7yo
May not find 64 days off easy
In no hurry to bet him today

When his main market rival
Just won the best trial race 

TRUESHAN is a 5yo
Has just won the Goodwood Cup 
13 of the last 23 winners
Came from that race
His problem is drying ground
His sires record on faster ground
Much inferior to his soft figures

SPANISH MISSION a 5yo
Comes from Ascot's Gold Cup
Persian Punch did that in 1998
But all 12 to try since failed
He just did not stay at Ascot 
He should be at least the saver
But with the ground drying out
He has to be consider as the bet
It was a close decision in the end

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet TRUESHAN 5/2

£3.00 Win Bet SPANISH MISSION 5/2






York 3.00

2/1 Lusail, 3/1 Berkshire Shadow, 11/2 Fearby
7/1 Vintage Clarets, 12/1 Eldrickjones, Orazio
16/1 Gis A Sub, Twilight Jet, 20/1 Last Crusader
25/1 Spitting Feathers, 33/1 American Star.
 
Gimcrack Stakes

2yo Group 2 (6f) 

Not a significant trial race

Several have chances

BERKSHIRE SHADOW is one
But he has a couple of issues

He drops down from 7f
Only 1 of the last 23 winners
Won this coming down in trip
None winning over 7f like him
Has won the Gimcrack before
Not keen on stall 11 of 11 here

Go back to 2014
York 6f races
Under 12 runners
Horses with 2 + runs
Drawn in stall 9 or higher
Have a 0-57 record in them
The only high draw winners
Were once raced maidens
BERKSHIRE SHADOW fails this

LAST CRUSADER is badly drawn
SPITTING FEATHERS off 58 days
Has the longest absence of these
FEARBY is not like any winners
  
Horses from 5f races
That were Listed or Group class
Have a 0-25 record since 1997
FEARBY the 26th to attempt this
 
The winners coming from 5f
All had 3 or 4 career starts
None of them had 5 or more
VINTAGE CLARETS fails this

No winners  since 1997
Came from a Group 1 race
TWILIGHT JET did 12 days ago
This could be an afterthought
AMERICAN STAR is beatable
Took him 3 runs to win a maiden

ELDRICK JONES could go well
But he is dropping down in trip
That has not been the norm here

GIS A SUB is interesting
Stable have won this 4 times
Comes from the Richmond Stakes
3 recent winners prepped there
2 of these had 3 runs as he does

ORAZIO has 2 runs
Not a major concern in his
The exact profile as 2018 winner

LUSAIL has the best figures

Decided to split stake this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet GIS A SUB 12/1

£3.00 Win Bet LUSAIL 11/4-3/1

£1.00 Win Bet ORAZIO 8/1





York 3.35

9/4 Golden Pal, 5/2 Suesa, 11/2 Winter Power
13/2 Dragon Symbol, 14/1 Moss Gill, 16/1 Arecibo
20/1 Chil Chil, 20/1 Liberty Beach, 20/1 Que Amoro, 
20/1 Rohaan, 25/1 Dakota Gold, 33/1 Bedford Flyer
33/1  Emaraaty Ana, 40/1 Chipotle
100/1 Ubettabelieveit.
 
Nunthorpe

GOLDEN PAL

American raider
Impossible to judge
2nd at Royal Ascot in 2020
But his chance is not clear

SUESA is a 3 year old
Comes from a 5f race
 
Horses aged 3
Last won this race in 2011

Horses aged 3
Coming from 5f races
Have won this 3 times

They had 7 11 12 career runs
They had 5 5 5 runs that year
SUESA does not match that

He has 6 runs 
He has 4 that year

If we look at 3 year olds
With under 4 runs that  year
We have to go back quite a while
The last 3 do it were monsters
Stravinsky (1999)
Mozart (2001)
Oasis Dream (2003)
All 3 of these came from 6f races 

Could easily forgive that
But can we forgive his draw
SUESA is drawn 14 of 15 here

York 5f races
Since 2010
With under 16 runners
Horses drawn 14 and 15
Have a 0-28 record in them
SUESA fails this angle

ARECIBO rejected drawn 15
CHIL CHIL is an older mare
Plenty to do 41 days absence
Having never run at 5f before

ROHAAN looks unsafe
DAKOTA GOLD is underraced

WINTER POWER is a 3yo filly
Has enough experience
But only 3 races this season
All 3yo winners had 5 races
And she is only a 3yo filly 

3 of the last 4 winners
8 of the last 23 winners
Came from Goodwood
The King George Qatar Stakes

DRAGON SYMBOL does this
But 3 year olds from this race
Have a worrying 0-20 record 

Horses aged 4 or more
Coming from there are better

ARECIBO does this
MOSS GIL does this
LIBERTY BEACH does this

Neither of these smell fancied
LIBERTY BEACH is underraced
ARECIBO is badly drawn

CHIPOTLE is a 2yo
Gets a lot of weight from his elders
The 2 year old record is acceptable
11 juveniles tried and one did win it

Horses aged 2
Starting under 20/1
Finished in these positions
W 19 13 11 13 3 2  
With 3 of the 7 placing
And wone of them winning
CHIPOTLE can be respected
But the juveinile winners of this
All ran better than him last time

GOLDEN PAL

Does look the most likely winner
But do we want him drawn one
Nunthorpe winners since 2001
Only Battash has won drawn 1

If the market was stable
Any everyone could get on at 4/5
I would place bet Golden Pal
With a win bet on Winter Power

Every option here
Comes with at least 1 concern

WINTER POWER has her own
But if you look at her last 7 runs
W 9 W W W 10 W
Her only 2 defeats 
Worst draw in the Flying Childers 33/1
Went off too fast in the Kings Stand

I prefer the split stake bet
Golden Pal being £5 place saver

But that may be hard to get on
So going with the each way bet


Split Staking this one

Selection

WINTER POWER 13/2-7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4



  


York 4.10

3/1 Broadspear, 11/2 Dawn Of Liberation
13/2 Velazquez, 7/1 Hoo Ya Mal, 9/1 Vintage Choice
10/1 Brazilian Beach, 12/1 Capital Theory
12/1 Herbertandflorence, Skye Breeze, 16/1 Sharvara
25/1 Ample Power, Blenheim Boy, Dream Show
25/1 Killearn, 33/1 Emperor Caradoc
50/1 Echosmith, 66/1 Muveran.
 
Convivial Maiden Stakes

Not much to go on

10 have experience
7 of these unraced

The draw should help
 
If you look at every past renewal
The winners were all drawn 1 to 10
Horses drawn 11 + are 0-50 in this

York 7f races
Since 2013
Horses with under 4 runs
Those drawn 13 or higher 
Have a horrible 0-77 record

The following high draws
Are opposed on their draw

CAPITAL THEORY
DREAM SHOW
ECHOSMITH
HOO YA MAL
VINTAGE CHOICE
SKYE BREEZE

KILLEARN has 1 run
Needed a better race really
Opposing the unraced horses
Too many have experience

Still have to guess

BROADSPEAR has the best figures
But has 58 days absence
Horses that had a run
Absent over 35 days are 0-19
That absence could be an issue

BRAZILIAN BEACH is a filly
The only filly in this race
But she has raced twice before

VELAZQUEZ also has 2 runs
She was badly drawn last time
But a recent run on heavy ground
Has to be recovered from

DAWN OF LIBERATION may win
No statistical objection to him

BROADSPEAR 
Looks a sensible saver
BRAZILIAN BEACH first choice
Because of price and 2 races

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet BRAZILIAN BEACH 10/1
 
£3.50 Win Bet BROADSPEAR 2/1-9/4


 

York 5.10

5/1 Royal Fleet, 11/2 Wishaah, 6/1 Dejame Paso
13/2 Star Of Orion, 8/1 Rifleman, 10/1 Aldaary
10/1 King Triton, Marsabit, 12/1 Isla Kai, Raadobarg
20/1 Chief Little Hawk, 25/1 Cuban Dancer
25/1 Il Bandito, 33/1 Bellagio Man
33/1 Devilwala, 50/1 Abduction.


3yo Handicap (8f)

8 Past renewals

Not much to work with


York 8f races
Under 17 runners
Since 2014
Horses drawn 14 +
Have a 0-36 record

Once again high draws
Seem to struggle here

ROYAL FLEET is drawn 16/16
It should damage his chance
CUBAN DANCER is drawn 15
STAR OF ORION is drawn 14

8f York races
Run since 2004
Under 17 runners
Horses absent over 30 days
Drawn in stall 10 or more
Have a poor 1-70 record
ISLA KAI fails this angle
Drawn 12 with 42 days off
BELLAGIO MAN fails this

DEJAME PASO drops in trip
He fails this generic statistic

3yo Handicaps (8f)
Run in Class 2 grade
Any time of year 
Horses from 9f or more
Over 4 career starts
Absent more than 13 days
Have a 0-100 record in them 
DEJAME PASO fails this

Horses with under 5 runs
Won just 1 of the 8 renewals
That horse won a Novice

ROYAL FLEET badly drawn
Has 3 runs from a handicap

WISHAAH has the same issue
KING TRITTON has 3 races
But 66 days off is offputting 
Longer than any past winner

CHIEF LITTLE HAWK with 13 runs
More exposed than all winners

ALDAARY is rated 104

This is an interesting statistics

August and September 
3yo Handicaps
Any distance
Since 1997
Horses rated 103 or more
Have a 0-44 record in them
ALDAARY the 4th to try

STAR OF ORION rated 103
May find it tough drawn 14

RAADOBARG has 64 days off
Longer than any past winner

MARSABIT has 12 runs
Exposed but 2019 winner had 12

RIFLEMAN is well drawn
Entitled too need his last run
Having looked temperamental 
Gelding looks to have worked
He is clearly well treated here
He could be capable of winning

Staking it this way

Selection

£4.00 Each Way RIFLEMAN 10/1-11/1

£1.00 Win Bet RAADOBARG 10/1-11/1

£1.00 Win Bet MARSABIT 12/1-14/1

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