9 Previews
0 Account Bet 
0 Best Bet 

No Staked Bet
 
 
 
 
Today's Racing


High quality racing
  
A completely different dynamic
After several days of starvation

Impossible to cover every card
That is exactly how they like it 
Makes me weep to witness this 

Message does feel rushed

Big fields so how could it not be ?

Decent staking a big challenge
The day may well hinge on this


Doncaster 2.40

DANZAN 8/1-9/1

Each Way 

Interested in this handicap
But the preview shows us
Many complicated issues
This horse owes me money
Going to try to get it back
An emotional recovery bet
Not one I wanted to stake


Cheltenham

3 Previews

Powerful angles there as usual
Split Staked two of those races
Makes than impossible to stake
Interesting to see what happens
Which of the best angles hold up

Newbury 4.30

DULAS 9/1-10/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Had to cut a few corners 
Needed more time on this
But probably got enough 
To consider him an option
But not for any staked bet

I don't feel I have one

Taken too long to finish

Just nice to see good racing

So going to leave a staked bet

Had little time to consider one

Just see how we get on today



Today's Best Bet  


Doncaster 2.40

DANZAN 8/1-9/1

Each Way 







Preview Selections
   
Doncaster 1.30
Moon De Vega  3/1-100/30
Each Way

Doncaster 2.05
Jimi Hendrix 100/30-7/2
Each Way

Doncaster 2.40
Danzan 8/1-9/1
Each Way 

Newbury 2.48
Hapap 7/2
Each Way

Cheltenham 3.05
£5.00 Win Bet Bardenstown Lad 3/1  
£5.00 Place Bet Dragon Bones 4/5

Doncaster 3.15
Favourite Moon 6/4
Win Bet

Cheltenham 4.14
£6.00 Win Bet Art Approval 11/2-6/1
£4.00 Place Bet Captain Morgs 5/4-11/8

Newbury 4.30
Dulas 9/1-10/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Cheltenham 4.50 
Debden Bank 7/1-15/2-8/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5





Yesterday's Summary

Covered only the two previews
Neither of the bets were beaten
Would have taken that before
After one miserable boring week
Secret Moment was my best bet
Very happy to say he won easily
Did give the confidence a boost
Needed after such a boring week





PROFILES & PREVIEWS  



Doncaster 1.30

7/2 One Evening, 5/1 Glory And Gold 6/1 Big News
6/1 Moon De Vega 9/1 Heart Of Summer
14/1 Suffrajet, 16/1 Sunaina 20/1 Candy Shack
50/1 Goodison Girl, Nusa Dua 50/1 Rumourmonger.

8f Maiden (Fillies)

Very little to go on

Most horses are unraced

Have to make assumptions

Starting with the draw

Go back to 2002
Doncaster 8f races
Unraced winners
Fields of 11 or more

Stalls 1-2-3-4 are 0-68
Stalls 12 or higher 1-72

The vast majority 
Of the unraced winners
Came from middle stalls 
Drawn 5-6-7-8-9-10 
 
Prompts me to oppose these

GLORY AND GOLD drawn 13
GOODISON GIRL drawn 12
SUNAINA is an unraced 
So stall 11 may be a bit high

SUFFRAJET is opposed
Without any market support
HEART OF SUMMER is similar
You would expected shorter
If better was expected from her

BIG NEWS is well drawn
Hardly the safest of trainers 
To win with a debutant over 8f
James Fanshawe's record
Unraced 2 year olds over 8f +
Every one that ran since 2000
He has a poor 3-81 record
His last 23 since 2015 failed

ONE EVENING could win

MOON DE VEGA though
Has had 2 prep runs now

5th on debut at Kempton
When reportedly "struck into"

Started only 3/1 at Newmarket
Drawn on the outsider there
Reported as not liking track

No idea if she is good enough

But she might be

And those 2 prep runs
I would hope are enough
To get a place at the least
 
Selection

MOON DE VEGA 3/1-100/30

Each Way




Doncaster 2.05

7/4 Velazquez, 4/1 Jimi Hendrix, 5/1 Beluga Gold
11/2 Medrara, 12/1 Jabbar, 14/1 Dion Baker
16/1 Cumulonimbus, 20/1 Eagle's Way,  
25/1 Volos, 33/1 Ample Power, Dougies Dream
50/1 Ahamoment, Sydney Bay, 100/1 Moonlight Dawn
100/1 Overdraft.

2yo Maiden (7f)

Not much to go on
Several unraced horses

VELAZQUEZ has 3 runs
No surprise if he wins this
But stall 15 of 15 is tough

Wishy washy draw star
Doncaster 7f races
Since 2014
Under 16 runners
Male horses
Under 9 runs
Drawn 14 or higher
Have a 0-24 record

Not a negative
More a flawed positive

BELUGA GOLD has 1 run
Not keen he is drawn in 1

Horses drawn 1 are 0-22
In the previous 22 renewals 

Better draw stat

Doncaster 7f races
Since 2006
9 or more runners
Any race
Any time of year
Horses aged 2
Under 3 career runs
Drawn in Stall 1
Have a 0-67 record 
BELUGA GOLD fails this

Several may need a run
DION MAKER from Kevin Ryan
Could easily be one that does
EAGLES WAY probably will too
JABBAR rejected drawn in 16

JIMI HENDRIX on debut
Was racing on soft ground
Pitched into a Novice race
Like to think he will improve  

Selection

JIMI HENDRIX 4/1

Each Way





Doncaster 2.40

5/2 Fresh, 6/1 Chairmanoftheboard
7/1 Air Raid 8/1 Music Society, 9/1 Danzan
9/1 Pendleton 10/1 Soldier's Minute, 14/1 Magical Spirit
16/1 Call Me Ginger, Lord Rapscallion
25/1 Rathbone.

6f Handicap

No 3 year olds

Are their banana skins here

Past renewals suggest so

Been a non runner too
That may just help he here

PENDLETON an old friend
But not for me from a 5f race

October
6f Handicaps (Class 2)
Horses aged 5 or more
Coming from 5f races
Have a 0-51 record
PENDLETON fails this
MUSIC SOCIETY fails this

LORD RAPSCALLION is out
Longest absence in the race
RATHBONE hard to like too

The Banana Skin

3 horses ran 7 days ago

CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD
CALL ME GINGER
AIR RAID

Normally with short absences
I would be tempted in sprints

Just noticed that in this race
Horses running within 10 days
Have a 1-55 record in them

Maybe that is a warning sign

Maybe I am about to screw it up

But that record quite worrying

All 3 of those horses
Ran at Haydock on soft 7 days ago
May have taken the edge off them
I can argue that all of them are unsafe
But the 2014 winner prepped there
The one winner in the 1-55 record


FRESH could easily win
Probably the most likely to

But he is only a 4yo
He is the youngest in the race
He has the most weight as well
And just 1 run in 83 days now
I wanted more at a safe price

DANZAN drawn 12 of 12

Would have opposed that draw

But there is a non runner

His figures are so consistent

He's never won in this class

But this is a modest field
Not your typical class 2 sprint
And off 84 at the price tempted

FRESH has to give him 14lbs
And in the period he ran once
DANZAN has now raced 8 times 

Selection

DANZAN 8/1-9/1

Each Way 





Newbury 2.48

4/1 Balgowan, 9/2 VE Day, 5/1 Bushfire
5/1 Tying The Knot, 6/1 Hapap, 6/1 Postmark
9/1 Mambo Beat, 12/1 Shorts On, 20/1 My Mate Ted
33/1 The Residencies.

8f Maiden

Several unraced

HAPAP

4 runs
Not ideal for a Newbury maiden
But the 2017 winner did have 4

Just like the narrative

Dark Angel the sire or course
Which makes it understandable
Why he failed on his debut
Sandown 7f on softer ground

His 2nd and 3rd runs over 10f
Probably too far too soon for him

Last time out at York
Pitched into a class 2 handicap
Came from last finished quite well

He looks very well treated to me
Just wish this was a handicap
Not sure if he will beat all of these
Feel he will place and could win

Selection

HAPAP 7/2

Each Way





Cheltenham 3.05

9/2 Calagogo, 9/2  Dragon Bones
5/1 Grace A Vous Enki 6/1 Bardenstown Lad
13/2 Onagatheringstorm, 7/1 Drumlee Watar
8/1 Siruh Du Lac, 8/1 Almazhar Garde.

Novice Hurdle 3m

6 Past renewals

All 6 winners
Were aged 5-6-7
Won last time out

If this happens again
One of these will win

CALAGOGO
ONAGATHERINGSTORM
DRAGON BONES

Not sure if I should trust this
Based on a low sample size

DRAGON BONES is a mare
Not have won this race yet
Sired by Passing Glance too
Will she stay 3m 
When you factor in 170 days off ?

CALAGOGO has a similar problem
Only the 1 horse sired by Doyen
Has won over this far over hurdles
When absent more than 36 days
Those that tried were just 1-48
CALAGOGO now has 63 days off

ONAGATHERINGSTORM is a 6yo
He is racing first time out this year

More stable as a statistic is this

Go back to 2001

Cheltenham 
Non Graded Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 0-52 record in them
None aged won in 20 years

DRUMLEE WATAR fails this
SIRUH DU LAC also fails this

GRACE A VOUS ENKI is a 5yo
The dilemma with his profile
Absent 14 days after a break
Is he coming back too quickly
Could he be on the bounce 
See him as a neutral profile

Split Staking this race

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet BARDENSTOWN LAD 3/1  

£5.00 Place Bet DRAGON BONES 4/5





Doncaster 3.15

7/4 Favorite Moon, 3/1 Postileo, 7/2 Not So Sleepy
11/2 Stargazer, 12/1 Cayirli, 14/1 Gentleman At Arms
33/1 Sir Chauvelin.

Handicap 1m 6f

Go back to 2000

21 past renewals

Horses aged 5 or more

Have a horrible 1-108 record

We have 3 horses aged 9

NOT SO SLEEPY
CAYIRLI
SIR CHAUVELIN

STARGAZER is an 8yo as well

All worrying ages
When those aged 5 + are 1-108 

 
Since 2006

13 Past renewals

12 of the winners
Had this basic profile

Aged 3-4
Under 14 runs
Coming from 12f +

GENTLEMEN AT ARMS has this
But comes here hammered last time

POSTILEO has this ideal profile
But no winners came from 2m 4f
This 6f drop in distance my worry
Whilst his absence negates that
He is absent longer than all winners

FAVOURITE MOON also qualifies
Looks the most likely winner here

Selection

FAVOURITE MOON 6/4

Win Bet


 


Cheltenham 4.14

11/4 Guard Your Dreams, 6/1 Coole Cody
6/1 Mullaghmore Wave, 7/1 Art Approval
8/1 Captain Morgs, Saint Sonnet, 12/1 Dal Horrisgle
12/1 Found On, Sometimes Always, 20/1 Calvinist
25/1 Clemencia, 40/1 Fitzroy.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

This handicap
drops back a furlong
Used to be a 2m 5f race

Go back to 2001
Cheltenham 
Handicap Hurdles
Non Graded races
Any distance
Any time of year

Horses aged 10 or more
Have a miserable 5-346 record
Low strike rate of just 1.45%

Breaking that down a bit

In October and November
Horses aged 10 or more are 0-90
COOLE CODY fails this statistic

When absent over 61 days
Horses aged 10 or more are 0-105
COOLE CODY also fails this statistic

Last 21 renewals
Horses with over 13 runs
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-72 record in them
Only horses to win off breaks
Were lightly raced and unexposed
COOLE CODY is neither
 
Seasonal debutants
With over 9 hurdle runs were 0-53
COOLE CODY also fails this statistic
 
GUARD YOUR DREAM is a 5yo
Having 11st 12lbs is a problem
Generally it is a lightweights race
A horse his age won this in 2014
So it can and has been done
But few high weights take this
   
FOUND ON is up in distance
Go back to 2003
Horses from hurdles this year
That were over 2m 3f or shorter
Have a 0-39 record Since then
FOUND ON shares this 0-37 stat
Not for me as a mare from 2m

FITZROY makes no appeal
CLEMENCIA a 5yo first time out
Not like any who have won this
They were all very lightly raced
CALVINIST has 16 hurdle runs
Needed far more than she offers
Almost all past winners had less

Every past winner of this race
Were officially rated 117 or more
Most of them rated at least 121  

MULLAGHHMORE WAVE is not
She is a mare and only rated 117 
No previous winners like her
Came from a mares handicap
SOMETIMES ALWAYS is rejected
Not for me first time out this year
DAL HORRISGLE is questionable
Rather heavy defeat last time out 
He has lost the momentum he had

SAINT SONNET is respected
But horses aged 6 or more
With 11st 10lbs or more weight
Have a 0-17 record in this race
SAINT SONNET fails this angle 

Shortlist

CAPTAIN MORGS is a 5yo

ART APPROVAL is a 5yo

The 5yo first time out winners
Were all quite similar to this pair
They were all very lightly raced

Impossible to split
Or know how forward they are
ART APROVAL has form here
That does look one less concern
Felt the split stake bet was best

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet ART APROVAL 11/2-6/1

£4.00 Place Bet CAPTAIN MORGS 5/4-11/8





Newbury 4.30

4/1 Old Flame, 11/2 Molls Memory, 7/1 Motorious
8/1 Ascot Adventure, 10/1 Caribou, Pretty Rebel
12/1 Cliffs Of Capri, Milltown Star, 14/1 Dulas
14/1  Final Watch, 14/1 Gifted Ruler, 16/1 Jack's Point
20/1 Bellazada, 20/1 Colour Image, 20/1 Global Esteem
25/1 Dancing To Win, Love Dreams, 33/1 Devilwala.

7f Handicap
  
What I could have done with this
If it had been run on a quieter day

Cheltenham and Doncaster today
Just leave no proper time to do it

MOLLS MEMORY is a 6yo
He has won this in 2010 and 2019

Don't fancy her this year
Not the right age for the race
And just one run in 121 days

OLD FLAME has 3 career runs
I'd be inclined to oppose him 
This is heavy ground after all
ASCOT ADVENTURE is a 3yo
Just can not find any winners
Aged 3 winning over 6f then 7f 

I'm wary + against high draws
Not keen on those aged 6 +
Had to cut a few corners too

CARIBOU

Excuses last time

Entitled to need the run
Failed a horrible draw stat
Ciuld be worth a saver bet


DULAS is a positive
Like his draw and handicap mark
His last two races are excusable
Drawn in the widest stalls twice

MOTORIUS could take this
But lightly raced up in class too
Several past winners of this race
Had more runs than you'd imagine
I'd prefer a few more than he has
But a career best last time out
Considered him as a saver bet

My analysis and conclusion
Has been rushed corners cut
But I came down on this selection

Selection

DULAS 9/1-10/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Cheltenham 4.50

5/1 Marquis Of Carabas, 7/1 Defuture Is Bright
8/1 Debden Bank, 9/1 Carnet De Stage, 10/1 Redford Road
10/1 Strictlyadancer, 12/1 Bermeo, 12/1  First Class Return
14/1 Boughtbeforelunch, Furius De Ciergues, 16/1 Elan De Balme
16/1 Jean Genie, 16/1 Madera Mist, 16/1 Petite Power
20/1 Ballyegan Hero, 20/1  Fact Of The Matter, 20/1 Len Brennan
20/1 Super Citizen.

Handicap Chase 3m 1f

Amateur riders

We have a favourite in this race

Who is 11 years old absent 900 days
  
Several older types have absences


BERMEO won this last season
He did that with some prep runs
Older and lacking a run this year
Rejected failing this statistic

Cheltenham
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any Class
Any time of year
Since 2004
Horses with 11 + Chase runs
Absent over 7 weeks
Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 1-136 record              
BERMEO fails this 1-136 statistic
PETITE POWER fails this as well

BOUGHTBEFORELUCH is out
He also fails this 1-136 statistic
Being expose absent with weight

MARQUIS OF CARABAS does too

Go back to 1999
22 Past renewals
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a poor 1-65 record  

FACT OF THE MATTER aged 11
Might look very well handicapped
But would not risk him at his age
Ridden by an inexperienced jockey
When he could easily be regressive

BALLYEGAN HERO is a 10 year old
Done nothing to suggest he will win

JEAN GENIE is 5 years old
We have had 5yo winners of this
All were far less exposed though
Not that comfortable with his age
Or his weight or his 14 day break
Could be on the bounce here
 
REDFORD ROAD is topweight
Big challenge to carry 12st 4lbs
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Any distance class time of year
No 7 year old has won any race
With more than 11st 12lbs weight
Hardly the safest of sires either

Go back to 2007 
Past renewals of this race 
Horses absent over 107 days
Carrying 10st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-57 record since then
REDFORD ROAD fails this stat

FIRST CLASS RETURN fails it
Mixing a big weight and absence
He fails another race angle too

The last 22 renewals show
Horses with over 21 races
Absent more than 95 days
Have a 0-26 record in this race
The trend has tended to be
Unexposed recent returners
Not exposed with absences
FIRST CLASS RETURN is unsafe
Has no experience here either

Go back to 2007 
Past renewals of this race 
Horses absent over 107 days
Carrying 10st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-57 record since then
ELAN DE BALME fails this angle
Don't see enough positives here
 
DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT is a 7yo
Beaten 75 lengths 12 days ago
Hardly looks the safest profile 
He also comes from 2m 5f
Horses from 2m 5f or shorter
Have a 0-43 record in this race   
DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT fails this
Somebody seems to like him
Most are ignoring his last run
As he was outclassed at 66/1
But this is a quick comeback run
He could easily be on the bounce

LEN BRENNAN is an 8yo
Hasn't jumped a fence since 2019
There are safer options here
MADERA MIST is a 7 year old mare
Long absence and no backclass
Most of her form against mares

FURIUS DE CIERGUES is a 6yo
There have been winners his age
One run this year over hurdles
He has had 12 chase runs so far
Officially improved only 7lbs
Never been in this class before
Not unexposed enough to risk
SUPER CITIZEN is a 7yo
Been running over the summer
Still has not prove his stamina
His runs over 3m  + unconvincing
And well beaten just 10 days ago


CARNET DE STAGE is a 6yo
Well raced this season an asset
All past 6yo winners had that
No track is one question mark
No proven over this far another
But he won easily last time out
Although this is a far better race
It was a career best run last time
Despite that maybe doubts win
 
STRICTLYADANCER is a 7yo
Unexposed and has a prep run
But that was only 14 days ago
Well treated can win if performs 
But he could be on the bounce 

DEBDEN BANK is a 7yo
He has 10 lifetime starts
With 107 days off the track
That could be a little bit raw
But like the others a lot less 


Selection

DEBDEN BANK 7/1-15/2-8/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

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