8 Previews
0 Account Bet   
1 Highlighted Bet  



Highlighted Bet  

 
Taunton 2.45

AMOUR DE NUIT 7/2

Each Way




This will not appeal to everyone
Pragmatic choice for todays bet

Chosen from 4 possible options
In a practical sensible message

The strongest bet is at Haydock
But a short price in a messy race
And that meeting could yet be off
Despte having passed inspections





 
Today's Message

 
Navan has been abandoned
Leaving us with 4 meetings

Priority is an account winner
Sunday looks a bit threadbare
If as expected Hereford is off
So today looks the better day



8 Previews

Ascot 12.40
Ascot 1.50
Taunton 2.10
Haydock 2.40
Taunton 2.45
Haydock 3.15
Newcastle 4.40
Newcastle 5.10




Several races of interest


Ascot 1.50

£2.50 Each Way WAR LORD 14/1

£2.50 Each Way I K BRUNEL 18/1-20/1

High class Handicap
This is the least likely winner
But we only need one placed
To make sure we do not lose
Several fancied negatives
An interesting open preview
Different place terms available
Betfair the best way to play this  
£2.50 Win bets in the win market
£2.50 Place bets in 4 place market





Taunton 2.10

IF THE CAP FITS 5/2

Win Bet

This race in last years message
Turned out to be a big disaster
I opposed the odds on winner
He won and fingers were burnt
Opposing him again this year
It may come down to conditions
If my selection can handle them
He could be the better bet here
Partly because of the scar tissue
Never considered this for a bet



Taunton 2.45

AMOUR DE NUIT 7/2

Each Way

Runs in this very rare race 
Hurdle race for senior horses
Seems to have a decent profile
From what we know about this
I like his momentum and figures
From the best stable in the race
Something the trainer also said
The jockey has changed status
From an Amateur to a Conditional
Never heard of that ploy before
It may or may not be significant
He should be very competitive
And I'd argue the likely winner




Haydock 3.15

£9.00 Win BALLYANDY 2/1 

£1.00 Win Bet NAVAJO PASS 10/1-11/1

A race we looked at midweek
There will be two camps here
Will Buveur D'Air have enough 
To defy 420 days off as a 10yo
Plenty of people think he will
I am in the camp that says not
So confident about it all week
But 3 runners does look messy




No interest in the sand previews
Don't want to get involved today




My Favourite bet

BALLYANDY and saver

Feels the professional bet
But the rewards are limited
And with the snow falling
No shock if they don't race
Having passed an inspection
 


Feels a very sensible message

With a sensible main bet as well


Taunton 2.45

AMOUR DE NUIT 7/2

Each Way





Friday's Summary 
 
Simply a low profile message
Felt the cards were rubbish
The first previews went down
The last one was even worse
But we did find a good winner
Broadway Joe each way 12/1
Plenty of 12/1 at the send time
Ended up winning only at 4/1
Not sure what happened there
Was not watching the markets
Only race we nailed perfectly
No bets were advised the day
But I'd have taken the results
If you offered me them before  
Even with just the one winner  





PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Ascot 12.40

6/4 Tritonic, 7/2 Stepney Causeway
4/1 Punctuation, Vulcan, 14/1 Casa Loupi
20/1 Salamanca School, 25/1 Tenfold
50/1 Hooroo, 100/1 Blue Slate, Sarceaux.

4yo Hurdle
Destined for a debutant
Mainly quality flat horses
Having their hurdling debut

I have one negative
But as expected he is drifting
STEPNEY CAUSEWAY is out
If you look at similar races run
At any time of the season
Horses from 7f are just 0-55
CASA LOUPI is also opposed
Sires soft ground hurdlers 1-66
 
TRITONIC will probably win
He is the best horse from the flat
But not by that much to be fair
But a top stable who often win this 
He has to be part of the staking
 
Going to split stake this one

Selection

£5 Win Bet TRITONIC 1/1

£5 Place Bet VULCAN 8/11







Ascot 1.50

11/2 Janika, Lightly Squeeze, 6/1 Danny Kirwan
7/1 Craigneiche, Paddys Motorbike, 8/1 Arrivederci
8/1 Kateson, 9/1 Dans Le Vent, 10/1 War Lord
16/1 Botox Has, I K Brunel, 25/1 Nordano.

Graded Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

12 Past renewals

The last 6 winners
Had 5 6 7 8 7 6 hurdle runs
That would be ideal range

The last 12 winners
Had the following hurdle runs
5 6 7 8 7 6 16 12 32 20 17 9

No horse won
With under  hurdle runs (0-29)
CRAIGNEICHE only has 3 runs
And has a long absence as well

JANIKA is absent 343 days
Has to combine that with topweight

Hard to judge profile in January
As not many races like this exist

January and February
Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded class
Any distance
Horses with over 4 hurdle runs
Absent more than 90 days
Have a 0-39 record in them
JANIKA fails this 0-39 statistic
He could be very well handicapped
But big weight on heavy ground
Only won in single figure fields
Looks a bit too risky given his task

DANNY KIRWIN has 6 hurdle runs
That's ideal so he could well win
But not sure he is well treated
He comes from a Graded novice
January and February
Handicap Hurdles in this class
Horses aged 7 or more
Coming from a Graded novice
Beaten in that race
Have a 0-35 record in them
Don't see a safe profile here
 
Horses with 1 run this season
Would worry me on this ground
 
December January February
Graded Handicap Hurdles
Any Distance in these 3 months
Horses aged 7 or more
Over 8 hurdle runs
Just 1 run in the last 9 weeks
Have a problematic 0-67 record 
DANS LE VANT has this problem
Maybe too exposed 15 hurdle runs
Having raced once in 14 months
LIGHTLY SQUEEZED is similar
He has now had 13 hurdle runs 
But only 1 run in the last 97 days
He also steps up 3f in distance
KATESON also fails this 0-67 stat
Not by much though so not worried
But he has 7 weeks off after a win
Never won off a mark this high

NORDANO ran too badly last time
BOTOX HAS needs a career best
Having just had a career worst run

PADDYS MOTORBIKE is a 9yo
Won last time in a Novice Hurdle
Horses from Novices are 0-16
Have to factor in his age as well
He is exposed and 24 flat runs
Most past winners had none
But last time winners score well
And he comes here with momentum
And a career best run last time out
What bothers me is this

Graded Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any time of year
Since 2001
Horses aged 9 or more
With over 7 flat runs
With over 7 hurdle runs
Return a 0-92 record
Strange angle but true
PADDYS MOTORBIKE fails this

Recent renewals show

You want a horse under 8
Under 9 hurdle runs
Running within 9 weeks
With 11st or more

The last 4 winners
All had the above profile

Most suitable matches

BOTOX HAS
IK BRUNEL
ARRIVEDERCI
WAR LORD

ARRIVEDERCI has 9 career runs
With 7 over hurdles and good mix
No reason why he should not win
But Jonjo and well beaten last time

I K BRUNEL is lightly raced
Bit of a worry down 5f in trip
But a big horse who will cope

WAR LORD has an acceptable profile 
Does not seem to be progressing
And his stable are still quite cold
But thats why we are getting 14/1
Stable have had several go close
And your out of form until your not

Going to take two horses
Big prices and underestimated
At their current market prices
We only need 1 to get placed

Selection

£2.50 Each Way WAR LORD 14/1

£2.50 Each Way I K BRUNEL 18/1-20/1






Taunton 2.10

4/5 Yala Enki, 4/1 If The Cap Fits
9/2 Rock The Kasbah, 12/1 The Mighty Don
14/1 Al Roc, 25/1 Sizing Codelco
50/1 Looksnowtlikebrian.

Portman Cup Chase 3m 4f
 
Deja Vu

YALA ENKI won this last year
Sadly I opposed him at odds on
Despite being the best horse
I did so because of this angle
 
Go back to 2000
Any race since then
Horses who last time out
Ran in the Welsh National
Finished the course that day
Beaten under 100 lengths
Running within 4 weeks
Have a 0-33 record
No horse since Eudipe (1999)
Has come out of that race
Having finished the course
And won with a recent race
YALA ENKI fails this last year

22 days before last years race
He had ran in the Welsh National
And had taken in a very hard race
Traditionally that is a tough race
That takes some recovering from

Yet he still managed to win that

He may well embarrass me again
But I have to oppose him again

YALA ENKI is a year older aged 11
But possibly more importantly
The Welsh National was rescheduled
He only has 14 days recovery this year
Thats 8 days less than he had in 2020
Going to take him on once again

ROCK THE KASBAH is 11 as well
Finished in second place last year 
Despite having stamina doubts
He had prep races before 2020
This year he has 371 days absence
That is enough to put me off him

Opposing both the above
THE MIGHTY DON around 12/1
Wouldn't be the worst saver bet
But he has to prove he will stay
And few from his sire prove that
AL ROC is a complete mystery
His 57 runs were all in France
None were over 3m or more

IF THE CAP FITS

Hugely talented
Never ran beyond 3m
But strong on breeding stats
Could be just what he wants
Soft ground should be all right 
Could be a bit softer than ideal
But in a small field of negatives
He looks the sensible option

Selection

IF THE CAP FITS 5/2

Win Bet





Haydock 2.40

9/4 Royale Pagaille, 100/30 Sam Brown
6/1 Sam's Adventure, 9/1 Acey Milan
10/1 Lamanver Pippin, Smooth Stepper
12/1 Potters Legend, 16/1 Claud And Goldie
16/1 Crievehill, 20/1 Just Your Type.
 
Peter Marsh Chase
 
Not a long preview in this
Because of the inspection

ROYAL PAGAILLE is sexy
Could be better class than these
Not hard to see why many like him

But he has statistical obstacles

Horses aged 7
Have a 0-23 record since 1997
They last won the race in 1996
ROYAL PAGAILLE is 7 years old
He also has to carry 11st 10lbs 
No horse aged 8 or younger
Won this with more than 11st 6lbs
Since the race was first run in 1981

ROYAL PAGAILLE is not safe
But Sam Brown is a non runner
That has increased his chances

He is now a 156 rated horse
Who only faces a 0-145 class field
So I am upgrading the favourite
ROYAL PAGAILLE is not a negative
I would consider him for a saver bet

ACEY MILAN is a 7yo
None have won since 1996 
Horses from 3m 3f or further
Have a 0-35 record in this race
JUST YOUR TYPE fails this angle
CRIEVEHILL isn't running well
SMOOTH STEPPER is respected
We do get 12 year olds winners of this
But hammered at massive prices
Just feel there are safer options
POTTERS LEGEND has a chance
But 11 now from a Veterans Chase
Do not see enough positives here
LAMANVER PIPPIN doesn't appeal
Not here with just 5 chase runs

SAM'S ADVENTURE
Offers plenty of positives

Last Time Racing Post Ratings

Show two horses dominating

ROYAL PAGAILLE
SAM'S ADVENTURE

Going to play it this way

Selection

£6 Win Bet SAM'S ADVENTURE 7/2-4/1

£4 Win Bet ROYAL PAGAILLE  5/4-11/8






Taunton 2.45

7/2 Gortroe Joe, 4/1 Thibault, 9/2 Amour De Nuit
5/1 Brewin'upastorm, 15/2 Jolly's Cracked It
8/1 Westend Story, 12/1 Air Horse One
14/1 Eamon An Cnoic, 20/1 Canyon City
25/1 Swift Crusador.

Seniors Handicap Hurdle

Seniors being the crucial factor

Open to horses aged 8 +
They are the hurdle equivalent
To Veterans Chases 

So far we have had
Only 9 of these races run
That's any time any distance
Just a small sample of 9 races


If you look at the 9 races
Horses with 11st 8lbs or more
Had a 0-22 record in them

BREWIN'UPASTORM fails this
Could he have too much weight ?

The ideal profile in this race

Horses aged 8-9-10
Running within 4 weeks
2 or more runs in 12 weeks
The horses coming out best

GORTROE JOE
THIBAULT
AMOUR DE NUIT

No great shocks there
I'd see all 3 as likely winners
 
THIBAULT comes from the flat
Not necessarily a good thing
He also has a lack of backclass

GORTROE JOE should go well

AMOUR DE NUIT won 14 days ago
Comes here with some momentum
Clearly well handicapped right now
He looks the best bet each way

Selection

AMOUR DE NUIT 7/2

Each Way






Haydock 3.15

8/15 Buveur D'Air, 2/1 Ballyandy, 10/1 Navajo Pass.

Unibet Hurdle

Been discussing this all week
 
Buveur D'air

Double champion hurdler
Gets weight in this race
From lower rated horses

As a 10 year old
With 427 days off the track
I am very keen to oppose him

Nicky Henderson has always said
He is a stuffy horse hard to get fit
I appreciate a brilliant record fresh
But that was in younger days
When at his championship best 

Many think his class will prevail

I'm on the side who do not

You can only be so confident
With a tiny field of 3 runners
BALLYANDY is a high class horse
I think he will beat the favourite
And I would stake the race this way

Selection
 
£9.00 Win BALLYANDY 2/1 

£1.00 Win Bet NAVAJO PASS 10/1-11/1






Newcastle 4.40

3/1 Heatherdown Matron, 4/1 Kingdom Found
6/1 We Still Believe, 13/2 Paquita, 7/1 Pocketeer
8/1 Ghostly, Princess Elektra, 10/1 Influence Is Power
25/1 Holy Chalice, Zankala, 40/1 Furniture Factors.

3yo Handicap (8f)

January has 62 similar races

Fillies
Coming from 7f or shorter
Running within 3 months
Have a 0-36 record in them
HEATHERDOWN MATRON fails this
From a Classified Stakes race
I wanted a safer profile for her
HOLY CHALICE fails this angle
ZANKALA also fails this as well

INFLUENCE IS POWER is unsafe
Beaten too far just 2 days ago


KINGDOM FOUND  is respected
Slowly improving as expected
Stall 1 will make things harder
Newcastle 8f races  
With 10 or more runners
Horses drawn 1
Are 1-53 since 2020
Are 2-97 since 2019
KINGDOM FOUND is drawn 1

PRINCESS ELECTRA is a filly
Low figures on all 4 career runs
Never fancied lacks positives
GHOSTLY is a cheap gelding
Has a modest 0-10 career record
Has already downgraded stables


Shortlist 

POCKETEER a filly from 9f
Not a match to any winners
But she is running consistently 
 
PAQUITA is a filly down from 10f
Fillies down in trip are 0-22 so far
Not like a winner doing this
Big stable so may well improve
But she has been big prices so far
From a top stable which is a worry
But last time was her best run
She was given a poor ride there
And she promised more than before

WE STILL BELIEVE comes from 6f
The horses doing that had 3 runs
He has 3 so relaxed about that
Underrated trainer and last time out
He ran far better than it was expected
 
Selection

£7.00 Win Bet WE STILL BELIEVE 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet PAQUITA 6/1-13/2-7/1

£1.50 Win Bet POCKETEER 6/1-13/2-7/1






Newcastle 5.10

9/4 Van Dijk, 7/2 Your Choice, 9/2 Sharrabang
5/1 Fuwairt, 8/1 Perfect Soldier, 12/1 Katsonis
12/1 Rail Dancer, Sherella, Wicklow Warrior
20/1 Detachment, 25/1 Quick Monet
33/1 Emily's Delight.

7f Classified Stakes

VAN DIJK has the fittest profile
Better class than most others 
He could hack up in this field

If he disappoints
There would be explanations

He could find 7f too short
It has to be something to consider

He could find 4 runs in 16 days
Might catch up with him as well
There are some question marks

I do expect him to win
Has to be part of the staking plan
But there are one or two doubts

VAN DIJK In a 23 race career
Career high Racing Post Rating of 60
That is not very impressive really
Good enough to win this race 
But lets not overrated the horse
Going to make him a saver bet

FUWAIRT in contrast
Has significantly more class
Problem is he is a 9 year old
Has not ran himself fit in ages
The reason I opposed him last time
But he was cantering in that race
Looked good before blowing up
He could be a big threat in this

YOUR CHOICE though as a 6yo
May be a more suitable option
She has plenty of backclass himself
With some recent gaps in training
She has not been ready for a while
But a stable upgrade 2 races ago
Last time She looked promising
Earnt her best figure in 14 months
Going with her with the saver bet

Selection

£7 Win Bet YOUR CHOICE 100/30-7/2

£3 Win Bet VAN DIJK 2/1

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