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Today's Racing
 
Goodwood and Galway
Look a bit too toxic today
Covered 3 previews there
But feel it is a bit too hard

Covered 3 other races
All softer and far easier
One of these my best bet

Need to pick our battles
Yesterday we won ours
Today might be different
Staked bet tomorrow

Today feels quite poor

Weakest message of week



Todays best bet

Has just taken a body blow

A negative second favouite

Pulled out 16 minutes ago

I could switch to another bet

But decided to change stakes

Staying with the same race




Today's Best Bet 


Bangor 2.10

CESAR ET ROSALIE 7/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds (2 Places)








Preview Selections 


Goodwood 1.50
£6.00 Win Bet Green Book 14/1
£2.00 Each Way Rochester House 16/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Bangor 2.10
Cesar Et Rosalie 7/2

Each Way 1/4 (1-2)



Bangor 2.45 
Fontana Ellissi 3/1
Win Bet

Goodwood 3.00
£4.00 Each Way Rhoscolyn 8/1
£2.00 Place Bet Shelir 4/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Bath 6.00
Flash Betty 5/1
Each Way

Galway 6.40
Phoenix Way 6/1
Each Way






Yesterday's Review

Started off with a nice winner
Split stake winner at Stratford
Good start took pressure off
We then hit a bad 3 race period
Races that were run against us
Patient Dream I count as a loser
Some firms were 1-2-3 others 4
He finished 4th so a few people
Will have saved their stakes there
Third Realm was beaten so easily
Joan Of Arc set quite a fast pace
She way well have gone too fast
By this stage not much in things
ASWAAN won as the days best
Very pleased with that selection
Wilderness Girl was another win
Which put us comfortably ahead
Before the final preview got beat
Finished with 3 winners out of 7
And the best bet winning at 13/2
So quite clear it was a good day





PROFILES & PREVIEWS  





Goodwood 1.50

 6/1 Elysian Flame, 7/1 Platform Nineteen
8/1 The Grand Visir, 9/1 Just Hubert, Smart Champion
10/1 Withhold, 11/1 Calling The Wind, 12/1 Coeur De Lion,
12/1 Green Book, 14/1 Buriram, 14/1 Rajinsky
16/1 Margaret Dumont, 16/1 Rochester House
20/1 Seinesational, Who Dares Wins, 20/1 Kloud Gate
20/1  Thai Terrier, 33/1 Cleonte, 33/1 Themaxwecan
40/1 Everything For You.

Handicap 2m 4f

Marathon staying handicap 

Opposing the older horses

KLOUD GATE is a 9 year old
WHO DARES WINS also a 9yo

I'd want to avoid older horses
Who has more than 9st weight
 
Horses aged 7 or more
With 9st or more
Have a 0-33 record in this

Class 2 Handicaps
Run over 8f and more
With over 8 runners
Any time of the year
Horses aged 7 or more
Carrying 9st or more
Have a worrying 1-107 record
THE GRAND VISIR fails this
WITHOLD also has this angle
WHO DARES WINS has it too

JUST HUBERT won this last year
Has a similar preparation this year
But older and do not see a repeat

THEMAXWWECAN is out of form
RAJINSKY is sired by Zoffany
Asking a lot to get home in this
When also coming from a 14f race

Horses from 1m 6f or shorter
Have won this race a few times
But horses stepping up from 14
Running in the previous 19 days
Have a 0-40 record in this race
SMART CHAMPION fails this stat
He was placed in this race last year
But he was not coming up 6f
Don't see him as great value
BURIRAM another up from 1m 6f
Has too much to prove anyway
Sires longest bred winner was 14f
  
COEUR DE LION is an 8yo
Not keen he has 45 days absence
He comes from the Ascot Stakes
That may not be a positive here
Every renewal since 2000 shows
Horses from that race were 0-28

ELYSIAN FLAME also ran there
Would not reject him on that fact
But do we want a 5 year old
Who has not raced in 45 days now

Past renewals show
Horses aged 5
Absent more than 21 days
Have a 0-32 record in this race
ELYSIAN FLAME fails this record
CALLING THE WIND fails this too

PLATFORM NONETEEN is a 5yo
He has raced just once since 2019

Past winners runs 
Since January 1st that year
3 0 4 8 2 3 6 10 6 4 8 
5 6 5 5 5 7 5 7 7 4 5
No horse has won this race
On the back of one run in months
Won last time may overcome it
But no precedents form his type

GREEN BOOK is hard to read
But unexposed and well treated
ROCHESTER HOUSE is a 5yo
He may fail my 5 year old stat
But he is so well bred for this
Criminal he has not yet won one
He was second in last years race 

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet GREEN BOOK 14/1

£2.00 Each Way ROCHESTER HOUSE 16/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5





Bangor 2.10

9/4 Roi De Dubai, 5/2 Rock On Rocco
9/2 Havana Hermano, 11/2 Cesar Et Rosalie
7/1 Tanarpino, 14/1 Oscar Nomination.

3m Handicap
Taking on the favourite

ROI DE DUBAI ran 12 days ago
His first run in over 11 months  
Coming back just 12 days later
From a long absent 2nd place
Decent chance he may bounce

July August September
Handicap Chases 2m 5f +
Horses aged 9 or more
Over 14 lifetime starts
Just 1 run in several months
Running within 15 days
Return a 0-36 record
ROI DE DUBAI has this 0-36 profile

Small field though
The scourge of many angles
But it does seem to make sense

OSCAR NOMNATION a 9yo
Has an absence and short of runs
No negative but does look risky
TANARPINO an unlikely winner
 
Shortlist

HAVANA HERMANO is a 7yo
He is going up 4 furlongs here
That on pedigree may well suit
But he is a really small horse

ROCK ON ROCCO is a 7yo
Unexposed with just 6 chase runs
Career best run last time out
Best last time out numbers
Plenty of positives and may win

CESAR ET ROSALIE is a player
Has plenty of runs that can win
Gets a lot of weight in a small field
Going to chance him with a saver

My original bet

£7.00 Win Bet CESAR ET ROSALIE 5/1-9/2

£3.00 Win Bet ROCK ON ROCCO 11/4

Now changed with a non runner



Final Selection

CESAR ET ROSALIE 7/2

Each Way 1/4 

1-2 places





Bangor 2.45 

15/8 Ibbenburen, 9/4 Fontana Ellissi
9/2 Splinter, 11/2 My Rockstar, 7/1 October Storm
25/1 Balzac, Hillview, 200/1 Twice The Mustard.

Novice Hurdle 2m

IBBENBUREN ran well on his debut
But he has raced only the once before
Comes back only 19 days after that
Seems a short enough price here
When he has no edge on numbers
And faces more experienced horses

SPLINTER is a 4yo
Several his age win these races
Not done so well here though

June to September  
Bangor 
Novice Hurdles
Any distance  
Horses aged 4
Have a weak 3-77 record
Those with under 6 hurdle runs
Have a 0-67 record in them
SPLINTER shares this 0-67 angle

FONTANA ELISSI is a 5yo
Won on his hurdling debut
Defeat next time understandable
Pitched into a big field handicap
Excuses last time out as well
Running on soft over 2m 5f

His debut hurdle figure of 119
Dwarfs any others in this race
Hoping he can reproduce that

Selection

FONTANA ELISSI 3/1

Win Bet




Goodwood 3.00
 
5/1 Magical Morning, 6/1 Maydanny
6/1 Path Of Thunder 9/1 Rhoscolyn, 10/1 Johan
14/1 Acquitted, 14/1 Epic Endeavour, 14/1 Qaader
14/1 Variyann, 16/1 Escobar, Shelir, 20/1 Another Batt
20/1 Bedouin's Story, Corazon Espinado, Orbaan
20/1 Qaysar, Trais Fluors, 25/1 Ebury, Greenside
25/1 Hartswood, Hortzadar, Plantadream.

Golden Mile

High Class Handicap (8f)

Starting with the draw
 
Every winner since 2011
Was drawn in stall 10 or lower
 
Every Goodwood 8f race
Since the renumbering in 2011
Show horses drawn 13 or more
Have a 1-110 record since then

Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn 13 or more
Have a 0-87 record
Beware the high draws

The following are affected

VARITANN - Stall 22
QAYSAR - Stall 20
BEDOUIN'S STORY - Stall 19
HARTSWOOD - Stall 18
ANOTHER BATT - Stall 16

HORTZADAR ran too badly last time
CORZON ESPINADO is a 6 year old
Underraced with 1 run in 114 days

Older horses are unsafe
The 7yo that won back in 2016
Did not win but was awarded it
The older the horse in this race is
The less your chance should be
GREENSIDE is too old as a 10yo
TRAIS FLUORS is 7 years old
Drawn high he is resistible

Class 2 Handicaps
Run over 8f and more
With over 8 runners
Any time of the year
Horses aged 7 or more
Carrying 9st or more
Have a worrying 1-107 record
ESCOBAR fails this statistic
TRAIS FLUORS fails this angle
GREENSIDE fails this angle

ESCOBAR is 7 years old
Not ideal he comes from a 7f race
But that was just 3 days ago
That may well increase his chance
Horses have won this race twice
With recent runs up in distance
But he does fail this 0-107 angle

ORBAAN is a 6yo
Needs a career best today 
EPIC ENDEAVOUR does too

JOHAN is a 4yo
Winning last time 37 days ago
July August September
Similar 8f handicaps show
Horses aged 4
Winning last time out
Over 9 career starts
Absent more than 28 days
Have a 0-26 record in them
JOHAN fails this 0-26 statistic

MAYDANNY a 5yo with 11 runs
Has a fit profile and is running well
Not the most orthodox of profiles
Horses aged 5 or more
With under 17 career starts
Have a 0-36 record in this race
MAYDADDY shares this 0-36 profile  

Possibles

MAGICAL MORNING is a 4yo
Comes from winning last time
Three his age won doing that
They had absences of 6 6 13 days 
MAGICAL MORNING has 27 days off
Plenty of weight but not ruled out
 
SHELIR has a low draw
Fit and running well right now
But he has no track form
No statistical objections to him
If Track and stall 1 help him
He could easily be the one

ACQUITTED an unexposed 4yo
Has 2 career bests on the trot
Matchable to winners so respected
Stall 12 probably just acceptable

RHOSCOLYN is a 3yo
Not ideal from a listed race
But like many in this field
A recent race could trump that

PATH OF THUNDER won last time
Three his age won doing that
They had absences of 6 6 13 days
PATH OF THUNDER has 22 days off
But his last run as a career best
It came in a very good trial race 
And he does look well handicapped

PATH OF THUNDER at 4/1
Seems a bit too short to bet
4 year old but a young May foal 
May win but just too skinny
MAGICAL MORNING could win
But profile is not that strong
ACQUITTED is shortlistable
But he has a questionable draw
And several have more recent runs

RHOSCOLYN has momentum
Staying with the recent returners

Selection

£4.00 Each Way RHOSCOLYN 8/1

£2.00 Place Bet SHELIR 4/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Bath 6.00

9/4 Torvi, 11/4 Lucky Shake, 9/2 Flash Betty
11/2 True Force, 10/1 Juanita, Run Rabbit Run
14/1 Arlecchino's Gift 33/1 Macon Belle, 66/1 New Rose,
66/1 Next Second 66/1 Thank The Lord
100/1 Fallen Hearts.

2yo Maiden 6f

TORVI is favourite

He has raced once
He has got stall 12

Once raced horses can win
But past renewals of this race
Show experience in helpful
They had the following runs
6 1 2 5 2 2 4 2

The only once raced winner
Back in 2017 was drawn in 1
TORVI has stall 12 to overcome

Bath races
Run over 6f or shorter
Every race since 2010 
Horses with under 3 runs
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Have a 0-45 record in them
TORVI shares this 0-45 profile

Some won drawn 11 
We could have non runners
But as it stands that draw
For an inexperienced horse
Could easily be problematic
TORVI is rejected because of it


TRUE FORCE is unraced
Could win but hardly safe

LUCKY SHAKE has 5 runs
FLASH BETTY has 8 runs
Both have lots of experience
Both come from handicaps
Both have good recent races
LUCKY SHAKE from a grade higher

TORVI's path to victory
Would be if she was better class
But she was hardly expensive
And does have the difficult draw
 
FLASH BETTY is the main bet
Partly because of the prices
He may not be the highest rated
But he is the fittest horse here
And brings firm ground track form
And momentum into this race

Selection

FLASH BETTY 5/1
 
Each Way



  
    
Galway 6.40

13/8 Darasso, 7/2 Phoenix Way, 11/2 Samcro
6/1 Koshari, 8/1 Battleoverdoyen, 10/1 Annamix
25/1 Ben Dundee, 33/1 Best Behavior
66/1 Jack Hackett.

Arthur Guinness Chase (2m 6f)

Crazy race this year

2 Rank outsiders

5 of the Biggest players
Ran in the Galway Plate
Have only a 2 day absence

Last years winner
Came from the Galway Plate
But I don't see that as relevant
He pulled up after 5 fences
Did not have a hard race at all
Yorkhill in 2019 also unseated
He did not have a hard race either

SAMCRO leaves me cold
Losing 71 lengths 2 days ago

BATTLEOVERDOYEN similar
Beaten 55 lengths just 2 days ago

Can not have either so quickly
ANNAMIX pulled up in the Plate
But was never going well anyway

KOSHARI finished 6th in the Plate
My selection there he could go in
But he had a hard race there
And he is risky coming back soon
BED DUNDEE finished 8th there
He was only a 66/1 chance as well

DAROSSO finished in 5th place
Both have had hard recent races

One of these could pop up
Because so many of them try
But none are comfortable options

Several Past winners of this 
Have won with long absences
PHOENIX WAY must be in play


Selection

PHOENIX WAY 6/1

Each Way


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