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Chepstow 3.25

DIAMOND COTTAGE 5/1-11/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds

1-2-3-4



Make sure you get 4 places





Today's Racing 
   
Bank Holiday Monday 
Different dynamic today

Saturday's message safe
Not designed to find a bet
Probably overprotective

Sundays message weak
No enough choice there

This has been designed
To find a good priced bet
Avoiding the small fields
And the weaker markets



Roscommon 5.45

BLYTON 17/2-8/1- 9/1 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Blyton was a recent best bet
I love his chance in this race
You always have to pay a price
If you want to target longer odds
One of the prices we must pay
Risking his low scoring trainer
He has a 2.27% overall strike rate
If you look at his flat runners
Those running within 21 days
Have a miserable 0-215 record
These stats crop up in small yards
And few of the 215 were fancied
But it does make you reconsider
Probably meaningless as a stat
But I worry if the wind is blowing



Another option


Chepstow 3.25

DIAMOND COTTAGE 5/1-11/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds

1-2-3-4



Main problem here
Filly one of the lightweights
Not the part of the weights
That I prefer to focus on 
Like class horse giving weight
Not inferior ones receiving it
But disappointed if not close



Direct choice

BLYTON offers redemption

I am tempted by her chances

I may have more on him

But the more sensible bet

Would be the Chepstow one

Not because of the trainer stat

But the safer place opputunity





Today's Best Bet 
    
Staked Bet

Chepstow 3.25

DIAMOND COTTAGE 5/1-11/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4




Preview Selections



Downpatrick 1.40
£5.00 Win Bet Alexharwill11/4
£5.00 Place Bet Tagg's Island 4/5

Downpatrick 2.45
Story Rory 8/1-9/1
Each Way
1/4 Odds
1-2-3-4

Ripon 3.05
Taj Alriyadh 7/2-4/1
Each Way

Chepstow 3.25
Diamond Cottage 5/1-11/2
Each Way
1/4 Odds
1-2-3-4

Roscommon 5.45
Blyton 17/2-8/1-9/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Cartmel 5.55
£3.50 Each Way Artic Quest 14/1
£3.00 Place Bet Watching Brief 9/4






Yesterday's Review   
 
Feared the worse yesterday
Did not like the smaller fields
Certain non statistical things 
Such as pace and jockeyship
Have too much of say in them
We had several second places
Unpleasant afternoon of those
Bunch finishes photo misery
Was no selection I could trust
So pleased I didn't have a bet

 
 



PROFILES & PREVIEWS    




Downpatrick 1.40

5/2 Alexharwill, 4/1 Tagg's Island
5/1 Deo Bellator, 8/1 Ringhill Lady, 10/1 Mezyan
12/1 Pat's Pearl, 14/1 Offaly Star, 16/1 Ardhill
18/1 Galaxy Girl, 20/1 Lady Of The Sea, Tonkinese
25/1 Ask The Leader, Redwood Boy, 33/1 Lopito,
40/1 Semper Fidelis.

Handicap Hurdle

Not much strength in depth

Many of the outsiders
Fit into uncomfortable boxes  
Most are out of form or unfit

MEZYAN is running badly
TOKINESE pulled up last time
OFFALY STAR also did the same 
ASK THE LEADER poor recent run
GALAXY GIRL the same problem
Her trainer has a 0-35 career record

LOPITO has some low numbers
REDWOOD BOY looks unfit
SEMPER FIDELIS underraced
LADY OF THE SEA an older mare
Has a strong of heavy defeats

ARDHILL is a 6 year old
Unsafe with 214 days absence
Combined with topweight 12st
PATS PEARL an exposed 10yo mare
With just runs in the last 10 months
Both heavy defeats she is risky
 
TAGGS ISLAND has claims
But as an exposed 9 year old
Coming up from a recent 2m race
There is weakness in his profile
But the positives to get placed

ALEXHARWILL is a 6yo
Running well after 7 career runs
Slightly on the inexperienced side
 
Downpatrick has 12 similar races
Run during August and September
Horses aged 6 or more
Under 10 lifetime starts
Have a 0-24 record in them
ALEXHARWILL shares this profile
Not too worried about that statistic
He almost broke it himself last time
Still see him as a positive 
Signs he is slowly improving

DEO BELLATOR ran in the same race
He was just behind Alexharwill here
But having raced once in just 8 months
DEO BELLATOR was entitled to need it
What does out me off him is his pilot
His jockey has a 0-114 career record
Amateur who rides his own horses

ALEXHARWILL may improve again
He is preferred with the better jockey
And with his numbers improving too

RINGHILL LADY a 6yo mare
Comes here with 75 days absence
But can match her to 2 winners
And she had excuses last time 
Decided to split stake the race

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet ALEXHARWILL 11/4

£5.00 Place Bet TAGGS ISLAND 4/5





Downpatrick 2.45

4/1 Ruler Of Dubai, 11/2 Balgowlah
6/1 Favori Logique, 7/1 City Limits, 8/1 Darcys Hill
8/1 Woodbrook Boy, 10/1 Story Rory 10/1 Blue Markie
12/1 Building Bridges, King's Song, 16/1 Fort William
25/1 Gotthenod, Summer Hill,  33/1 Tango Theatre
40/1 Back To Bataan.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 6f

8 renewals

CITY LIMITS is topweight
He has 381 days off the track
Similar races at this time of year
With more than 5 runners in them
Horses with over 11 hurdle runs
Absent more than 175 days
Carrying more than 11st
Have a 0-60 record so far
CITY LIMITS fails this statistic
Jockeys never ridden a winner

Past renewals tell us

We want lighter raced horses

They all had 4-13 hurdle runs
They all had under 17 career starts


KING'S SONG is hardly that
As an 11yo with 65 lifetime starts
BACK TO BATAAN is also exposed 
BALGOWLAD has a 1-33 record
His 1 win over course and distance
But 33 lifetime starts 24 hurdle runs
Makes him look a bit too exposed
In a race where his type rarely win

Every past winner
Had at least 4 hurdle races
DARCYS HILL is a mare with 3
Unsafe from a mares maiden hurdle

BUILDING BRIDGES offers little
WOODBROCK BOY ran 10 days ago
Beaten 57 lengths looks too far
BLUE MARKIE is not too exposed
But is another hammered recently
Others have more positives

TANGO THEATRE needs improvement
And is a mare going up 6f

Ideal Profile

Under 17 lifetime runs
Between 4-13 hurdle runs
Coming from a handicap hurdle 
The following pass this profile


RULER OR DUBAI is interesting
Comes from a maiden hurdle here
Happy to ignore that as previously
He has plenty of handicap experience
Including over this course + distance
But he is just drifting too radically

FAVORI LOGIQUE is similar
Maiden hurdle win last time
But plenty of handicap experience
Including over this course + distance
His sires hurdlers
Running over hurdles
Distances of 2m 5f and  more
Have a modest 1-42 record 

STORY RORY ran just 5 days ago
Beaten 24 lengths is a a bit offputting
But he made a bad mistake there
And that killed his chance of winning
More like a school round afterwards
Going to forgive him that mistake
Had previously looked an improver
He was aa negative 2 races ago
Down 4f with a 1 day absence there
Handicapped to win if runs his best

Selection

STORY RORY 

Each Way

1/4 Odds

1-2-3-4






Ripon 3.05

3/1 Hellomydarlin, 9/2 Taj Alriyadh
6/1 Atomic Lady, 7/1 Mot And The Messer
7/1 Object, 9/1 Melayu Kingdom, 10/1 Flotus
14/1 Golden Warrior, 16/1 Eidikos
16/1 Kingboard Star, 25/1 Wonderful World.

Champion 2yo Trophy

Sight dilemma this year

The biggest numbers
Come from the fillies

But in recent seasons
Fillies are 0-30 in this race

Taking the view its fine
Fillies with decent figures
Should be fine in this race

HELLOMYDARLIN is one
She has the best figures
But has had the most runs
And not the best of draws

FLOTUS is a filly
Not for me coming from 5f
Go back to 2003
Fillies from 5f races
Under 8 career starts
Have a 0-31 record
FLOTUS fails this and is out
KINGBOARD STAR has this profile
MELAYU KINGDON fails this too
She has raced just once 135 days ago
EDIKOS another filly from 5 furlongs
Also looks inexperienced with 1 run

OBJECT has a chance
His sire has so far only had winners
In Class 4 or lower before 

ATOMIC LADY has a chance
If we want to go with a filly

TAJ ALRIYADH is a male horse
Unbeaten after 3 career starts
Proven track form as well
Seems the logical bet here

Selection

TAJ ALRIYADH 7/2-4/1

Each Way







Chepstow 3.25

 9/2 Crocus, 11/2 Right Action, 6/1 Inner Circle
13/2 Bounty Pursuit, 7/1 Diamond Cottage
8/1 Port Noir, 9/1 Outer Space, 10/1 Alcazan
12/1 Rhubarb, 14/1 Iconic Knight, 20/1 Pedestal
25/1 Winklemann, 40/1 Disey's Edge
66/1 Jaganory.

7f Handicap

CROCUS has 3 runs
I would want more here

Chepstow since 1998
August to November
Handicaps under 1m 4f
Horses with under 4 runs
Have a 0-76 record in them
CROCUS fails this statistic

RHUBARB is a filly up in trip
She is drawn in stall 1 here

Chepstow 7f races
Over 9 runners
Since 1998
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn in stall 1
Have a 1-88 record
Since 2011 they are 0-42

PORT NOIR a filly up in distance
Does not offer enough positives
OUTER SPACE is now 10 years old

BOUNTY PURSUIT is a 9yo
He won here only 11 days ago
Should go well but higher in weights
He has raced just once in 70 days
ICONIC KNIGHT was 3rd that day
He is entitled to plenty of respect
But has a jockey with a 0-50 record
May be something we should avoid
INNER CIRCLE was 5th that day
Chances but do we want a low draw

Similar 7f handicaps
Any month of the year
Run in Class 6 like this 
Fillies aged 3
Absent over 75 days
Have a 0-62 record in them
ALCAZAN has this profile

RIGHT ACTION has a good profile
Plenty of weight though 10st 1lbs
And he may want the ground softer
  
DIAMOND COTTAGE a 4yo filly
Not worried she has a 0-20 record
But her numbers are quite limited
She gets 16lbs from Right Action
Running consistently with 4 places

The 2011 + 2013 winners of this
Were similar 4yo fillies with recent runs

Selection

DIAMOND COTTAGE  5/1-11/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds

1-2-3-4







Roscommon 5.45

7/4 Jazz Dreamers, 6/1 Cracking Name
8/1 Skontonovski, Tai Sing Yeh, 10/1 Blyton
10/1 Cnodian, Dande, Ellabella, What Adaay
16/1 Dark Kris, 20/1 Upstate New York
25/1 Sanctuary Place, 33/1 Khair
66/1 Dancing Doll.

7f Handicap

Draw could be in play here

You can win drawn high here
But a middle draw is preferred

CRACKING NAME has stall 17
He has topweight to carry too

Roscommon races show
Horses aged 7 or more
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Have a 0-31 record since 2011
CRACKING NAME fails this angle

TAI SING YEH fails this as well
Don't see him as a negative though
But on turf he is 0-17 over 7f

KHAIRY ran 15 days ago
Beaten 105 lengths over hurdles
Hardlly inspires and looks unsafe

CNODIAN is a 3yo filly
She steps up in distance 
Having ran just 8 days ago

7f Handicaps on turf
Any month of the year
In Class 6 or lower
3yo Fillies
Over 6 career starts
Coming from 6f or shorter
Running within 12 days
Have a 0-30 record in them
She may win looks well treated
But she is not like any winners
UPSTATE NEW YORK is a 4yo
First run for a new stable
Facing 72 days off the track
Make him quite a risky option

Similar 7f handicaps
Any month of the year
Run in Class 6 like this 
Fillies aged 3
Absent over 75 days
Have a 0-62 record in them
ELABELLA has this problem
Rejected with 113 days absence

WHAT ADAAY is a filly
Short of runs and good figures
Might win but done little so far
DANDE has 79 days off
Would not be my first choice

JAZZ DREAMER is a 3yo
He won easily just 4 days ago
That makes him very interesting
But it was a 9f race he won there
He is dropping back 2 furlongs
How he reacts to this drop in trip
Something we just can't know
I would argue neutral positive

SKONTONOVSKI has a chance

DARK KRIS would not be a shock
Blew the start last time an excuse
More likely winners though


BLYTON at 14/1 my best bet
He failed but finished in fifth
Got out in front as expected
Thought he ran a good race

BLYTON

6 Days ago

He was the days best bet

Backed him each way 12/1-14/1

Made the running over a mile
Got headed and dropped to 5th

He has dropped 2lbs in weights
Helpful but may not even neccesary 

Rated 92 at one stage
End of last season rated 70
So he looks well handicapped

Training problems have meant
He has not always reached fitness

Two runs ago at Leopardstown

9f on soft ground
Seems to stretch his stamina
Especially drawn 17 of 17 there
When having just 1 run in 3 months
Managed to lead from a wide draw
And was only beaten inside the last
Far better run than it looked

Had excuses every run this year
Running 10f with 159 days off
Failed to stay 9f on soft twice 
  
This drop in trip may be perfect 
He could easily be good enough

Selection

BLYTON 9/1 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4




Cartmel 5.55

9/2 Keeper Chris, 5/1 Decoration Of War
5/1 The Darley Lama, 15/2 Watching Brief
8/1 Permission Granted, 10/1 Pellady, 12/1 Artic Quest
12/1 Coup De Gold, Top Billing, 14/1 Ballyfarsoon
16/1 Dan Gun, 25/1 Crystal Lad, Pakie's Drea
33/1 Papal Count.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 6f

11 Past renewals

Several here have absences
No past winner has won yet
With an absence of over 76 days

PELLADY is a mare off 243 days
Not for me with topweight as well
DAN GUN has similar problems
Mixing both weight and absence

COUP DE GOLD is a 5 year old
Youngest horse with a big weight
CRYSTAL LAD looks unfit
PAPAL COUNT looks unfit
TOP BILLING has this problem
He is 12 with just 1 run in months
PAKIE'S DREAM is not running well
BALLYFARSON an exposed 10yo
Does not offer enough positives

Past winners show
No horse has won this race
With under 5 lifetime starts
With under 4 hurdle starts
KEEPER CHRIS has this task
Just 3 runs all over hurdles
His inexperience is a concern

PERMISSION GRANTED an 9yo
Comes with a 203 day absence
He could be a bit too exposed
No track form either not for me
 
THE DAREY LAME is interesting
First time out he has been gambled
Don't feel you can rule him out
But he was sold this year for £3500
Easy to underrate or overate

DECLARATION OF WAR is a 6yo
Respected but is going up 4f
If you look at his sires record
He has never bred a hurdle winner
That has won beyond 2m 4f yet

WATCHING BRIEF ran 12 days ago
Did nothing wrong best run of year
Poor strike rate but a cheap saver

ARCTIC QUEST has a 0-20 record
Has he reached form or fitness ?
Beaten 18 lengths was reasonable
He was second in this last season
There are more likely winners
But he should not be 14/1 or more
Track form is always helpful here
Entitled to have needed  last race
His record here and last years race
Suggests he may be laid out for this
    
Selection

£3.50 Each Way ARCTIC QUEST 14/1

£3.00 Place Bet  WATCHING BRIEF 9/4


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