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Today's Racing


All 4 meetings survive
On a cold + snowy day
Ended up with 7 races


7 Previews

Fairyhouse 12.40
Southwell 1.05
Fairyhouse 1.45
Plumpton 2.25
Catterick 2.35
Southwell 2.45
Southwell 3.15


Starts at Fairyhouse
With a 2m 4f maiden hurdle
Not sure I have staked right

After a short priced selection
Come to the Sussex National

 


Plumpton 2.25

£5 Win Bet SPECIAL ACCEPTANCE 5/1 

£5 Place Bet SALTY BOY 11/10

Gone for a split stake bet
Not really suitable to stake
And I don't feel it's worth it
Interesting angles but hard
And not tempted to stake it


It is a day of strange staking 

Not sure I have got it right 
This is 8 messages in a row
So may be be getting stale

There was only one race
That could have been a bet
But again staking options


Southwell 2.45

PHANTASMAL 5/1-11/2

Each Way


I've decided to go each way
Rather than have the win bet
As I also wanted 2 saver bets 

Mo Henry 6/1 a saver option
De Little Engine 9/1 another




Today's Best Bet


Southwell 2.45

PHANTASMAL 5/1-11/2

Each Way


Most firms offer 4 places 
Avoid Bet365 and V Chandler


Saturday's Review

We finished off P P W L L L L W 
Strong start and a good ending
But it ran into half way problems
COMEATCHOO was my main bet
Finished into a staying on fourth
Whilst that goes down as a loser
When they drift as he clearly did
You have the option of 4 places
When placing that bet on Betfair
Should always been considered
Even if the bet was officially lost
The 4 place odds late afternoon
Beat the 3 places price earlier on
Ran quite well so no complaints
Perhaps just some better horses
Feel fair to argue he was 4th best
Message began with good results
No danger of giving stakes away
The 2 Veterans chase selections
Produced the runner up and a 5th
Some firms were offering 5 places
Not enough for me to claim a place
I see that was a loser but hopefully
Some might have got the 5th place
Extra places trumps bigger prices 
Better shorter odds + more places
The last winner was quite welcome
Added respectability to the results
But message's as ever must hang
On the results of a stronger bets
A losing day without being a flop







PROFILES & PREVIEWS

 


Fairyhouse 12.40
 
11/8 Flanking Maneuver, 3/1 Folcano, 9/2 Gloire D'athon
8/1 Runrized, 20/1 Greykat, 25/1 Alko Rouge
33/1 Vee Dancer, 50/1 Onehundredpercent, Wa Wa
66/1 Miss Us O, 100/1 Autumn Crusade, Castle Island
100/1 Johnny Giro, Monaghanarmaghlady, Ruhm 
100/1 Und Ehre, Wild River Ridge.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

Lots of deadwood here
Looks a 5 horse race

ALKO ROUGE as a 7yo
Coming from a bumper
Hammered in that race
Looked riskiest of the 5


FLANKING MANEUVER

Complicated profile
Certainly not a good one

January to April
Maiden Hurdles 2m 4f +
Horses aged 6 or more
1 hurdle race
Coming from a 2m hurdle
Have a modest 4-164 record

Those 4 winners
Had absences of 17 20 20 21 days
FLANKING MANEUVER ran 16 days ago

We got take an aggressive stance
And look at horses like him
Running within the last 19 days
That produces a poor 1-142 record
He'd be a negative on that angle

But even being more lenient
Having a 4-164 profile is not good
For a horse favourite in a big field
Either way going to look elsewhere

FOLCANO has 1 hurdle run
He has 1 lifetime run as well
Not a negative but a raw profile
That I struggled to match to a winner
Just out of interest his sire
Has had hurdle winners over 2m 2f +
But none with under 4 hurdle runs
All 15 that tried were beaten

RUNRIZED is a nuisance
Willie Mullins hurdler off 372 days
To my surprise and annoyance
I can not rule him out on profile
Horses do win with his profile

GLOIRE DATHON has 1 hurdle run
He has 2 lifetime runs
But I can match him to winners

This is messy
Big field and weak market
Purely on profiles
Playing it this way



Selection

Option 1

£9 Win Bet GLOIRE DATHON 3/1

£1 Win Bet RUNRIZED 8/1



Option 2

£6 Win Bet GLOIRE DATHON 3/1

£4 Place Bet RUNRIZED 6/4 +



Not sure I have staked this right
Or even got the right conclusion
So will go with the safer Option 2 







Southwell 1.05

10/11 Turquoise Kingdom, 5/4 Moonbootz
12/1 Mount Mayon, 16/1 Tackleslikeaferret
20/1 Calculus, 50/1 Heaton Chapel
66/1 Greyfire.

8f Novice 

Should be two horse race
Most of the others are unraced
Coming from unconvincing sires

Tackleslikeaferret one of those
Mount Mayon will do well to win

The fancied experienced pair 
Should be holding the best cards

TURQUOISE KINGDOM is 4/5
The market is preferring him
From his main rival Moonbootz

I'd agree with that
MOONBOOTZ could easily win
But he has to prove his stamina
He lost 11 lengths just 5 days ago
He was gelded before his debut
Owned by a Racing Club as well
 
Selection

TURQUOISE KINGDOM 4/5

Win Bet






Fairyhouse 1.45

2/1 Crassus, 9/2 Rock Chica, 5/1 The Broghie Man
6/1 Optum, 10/1 Port Rashid, 12/1 Djasek, Flindt
12/1 Kilkeaskins First, 16/1 Mc Alpine
20/1 Walking In Memphis.

Handicap Hurdle

Started this race very late
So not a long preview here

ROCK CHICA is a 4yo filly
Felt she was far too risky

THE BROGHIE MAN is out
Has a chance on many levels 
But reluctant to trust his sire

Horses sired by Cityscape
Have a 1-46 hurdles record  
They are 0-28 running in soft
He has won a 5f listed race 
This is a heavy ground hurdle
Breeding stats say be careful
 
KILKEASKINS FIRST is unsafe
As a 10yo that's been chasing
PORT RASHID does the same

WALKING IN MEMPHIS is out
No evidence of form or fitness

OPTUM flopped last time
Could have done too much
She probably wins this race
If she repeats her previous run

FLINDT drops down 6 furlongs
And has been running poorly
But the sponsorship of the race
Refers to her trainers retirement
So could have been laid out here

CRASSUS is a 4yo
Hard to read looks the saver bet

Selection

£6 Win Bet OPTUM 4/1

£3 Win Bet CRASSUS 2/1

£1 Win Bet FLINDT 10/1







Plumpton 2.25

3/1 Benevolentdictator, 4/1 Seaston Spirit
11/2 Defi Des Carres, 7/1 Dawson City
8/1 Special Acceptance, 9/1 Rathlin Rose
9/1 Salty Boy, 14/1 Bermeo, 16/1 Cheque En Blanc
20/1 Goodnight Charlie, 33/1 Like The Sound
33/1 Sackett.
 
Sussex National

14 past renewals run in January 

Number of Chase runs

31 Dawson City
30 Rathlin Rose
22 Bermeo
15 Goodnight Charlie
15 Defi Des Carres 
12 Like The Sound
11 Sackett 
11 Cheque En Blanc
10 Seaston Spirit
9 Salty Boy
3 Special Acceptance
2 Benevolentdictator
 
LIKE THE SOUND is rejected 
But horses aged 9 or more
Carrying 11st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-30 record in this race
Pulled up last time hard to like
Especially with topweight as well

Opposing the veterans too

DAWSON CITY is 12 years old
Older than any previous winner
RATHLIN ROSE is 13 years old
Asking a lot to concede so many years
SACKETT is not running well

CHEQUE EN BLANC is rated 109
If we look at the last 10 renewals
Horses with under 10st 9lbs weight
Have a 0-21 record in these seasons 
CHEQUE EN BLANC fails this angle

DEFI DES CARRES has a tough weight
Especially with 1 run in 199 days
 
BERMEO is a very exposed 10yo
Pulled up on his latest run
Does not have much backclass

Past winners 
Had the following runs since August
2 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 2 2 4
No horse has won this race
Having raced once this season
GOODNIGHT CHARLIE fails this
He did not do enough last time out

SEASTON SPIRIT also fails this
He has raced just once this year
Has the longest absence in the race
Gone up 11lbs for winning last time
Not a negative could easily win this
But does not fit the pattern of winners

BENEVOLENT DICTATOR a 7yo
Has only had 2 previous chase runs
Don't mind them lightly raced at all
But 2 runs feels a bit inexperienced
Given ground field size and weight

January Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f and more
Any class of race
Horses with under 3 chase runs
Have a 0-15 record in them so far
Mild positive but not quite safe
And he is quite a short price too

SPECIAL ACCEPTANCE is an 8yo
Very lightly raced with 3 Chase runs
The winners in 2010 2018 2019
All had 3 Chase runs as he does
They were younger to be fair
But I would see him as a positive
Just so hard to rely on his trainer
He has to prove stamina as well
His sires runners have yet to win
When racing over 3m 2f or more
But few tried and being lightly raced
Compensates a lot for any concerns

SALTY BOY an 8yo
Looks fine with 9 chase runs
He has to prove he can stay 3m 4f
None from his sire have in better class
But he may do in this modest grade
What may be more significant than this
How he recovers from Haydock 15 days ago

Selection

£5 Win Bet SPECIAL ACCEPTANCE 5/1

£5 Place Bet SALTY BOY 11/10






Catterick 2.35

2/1 Out On The Tear, 4/1 De Forgotten One
6/1 Talktomenow, 13/2 Tribesmans Glory
15/2 Cracking Find, 10/1 Reverant Cust
11/1 Outcrop, 12/1 Do Wanna Know
50/1 Palixandre.
 
Handicap Chase 2m 3f

DE FORGOTTEN ONE

Very strange profile

Only 3 weeks ago
He placed in a Cross Country
Now he drops down 11 furlongs

Every handicap chase
Run over shorter than 2m 4f
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses from 3m 4f or more
Running within 3 months
Finishing the race last time
Have a 0-22 record in them

Suspect that would be worse
If more horses have tried this
Win lose or draw he looks wrong

TALKTOMENOW drops in trip
Goes from 3m 2f down to 2m 3f
He has raced just once in chases
No horse has won with this profile
In any handicap chase at ths distance
Two managed it with 2 chase runs
None managed it with 1 chase run

DO WANNA KNOW offers risk
Coming here PU PU PU
REVERAND CUST is underraced
PALIXANDRE is outclassed
OUTCROP doesn't offer enough

Most past winners of this
Had under 14 chase races

CRACKING FIND has 23 now
Not a negative but not 1st choice
Going to make him a place bet

Shortlist

CRACKING FIND 7/1
OUT ON THE TEAR 7/4
TRIBEMANS GLORY 8/1

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet TRIBEMANS GLORY 8/1

£4.00 Win Bet OUT ON THE TEAR 6/4









Southwell 2.45

11/4 The Golden Cue, 11/2 Dirchill, 13/2 De Little Engine
7/1 Mo Henry, Nick Vedder, 7/1 Qaaraat, 10/1 Phantasmal
16/1 Archimedes, Le Manege Enchante, 20/1 Bernie's Boy
25/1 Tan, 33/1 Isabella Ruby

6f Handicap

Looks a race of two halves

The top half of the weights
Bottom half of the weights

Bottomweights up against it
Horses with 9st or less weight
Are scoring very slow numbers
Bernie's Boy included in that
Archimedes another running slow

Le Manege Enchante
Hs 3 runs back after a long break
But he is 8 and well beaten last time
Don't think he is fit enough yet

This surely has to go to those
From the top half of the weights

The top 3 weights
All older horses down in distance
No problems with that profile here

DIRCHILL one of these is opposed
Not so worried he is 0-17 on sand
But drawn 11 he may find it difficult
No horse has won over 6f this year
In any race drawn higher than stall 10
All 30 that tried were beaten

QAARAAT is rejected from stall 12
His Southwell numbers are modest

NICK VEDDER 

He has been well backed
Looks very well handicapped
But he does have challenges

He is stepping up in distance
He has 66 days off the track
He has raced once in 306 days
Hardly ideal for a horse aged 7
Not a negative but not for me
 
The thing that interests me
The Stewards went for him last time

Trainer was fined £300
Jockey suspended 14 days 
Accused of schooling in public
The horse was banned for 40 days

What they were basically saying
He was a non trier last time out

I could be wrong
But I have always taken the view 
When trainers have these humiliations
They do not want to win next time out

If NICK VEDDER wins this race today
The Stewards would be vindicated
The perception would be the trainer
Had submitted to some skulduggery

If he gets beaten today
The stewards case is weakened

So the great irony
Accused of being a non trier last time
The stewards created an atmosphere
Where he could be a non trier today
Could be wrong he may hack up here
But my gut is telling me to ignore him
 
THE GOLDEN CUE is in form
He should go close because of it
But he is only 8th in the weights
There are classier horses in this

DE LITTLE ENGINE is down in trip
He may just be better over further
But he has won recently over 6f
Has more backclass than most 
And was forced wide last time out

MO HENRY is 9 years old
But we have a lot of older runners
He was 3rd here last time out
Upgrading that it was his first run here
He was also badly drawn in stall 13
 
Dodgy profiles in this race
Could be easier to overcome

Because no horses aged 4 or 5
Are running in this 6f handicap
Its more like a Veterans Sprint 
 
PHANTASMAL is effective here
But his last 2 runs were modest
That could be quite forgivable
2 runs ago when beaten at odds on
He had just won the day before 
Broke slowly from stall 1 that day
Had far too much to do from last
And just came home in his own time

Last time was over 7f
He was a little bit disappointing
But looking back with hindsight
Younger horses dominated that
We had a 3yo bolt up by 4 lengths

PHANTASMAL lost by 9 lengths
But was the oldest horse in the race
He was not given a hard time there
Allowed to come home in his own time
And it was a better race than this one

Today
He faces no 3 year olds
He faces no 4 or 5 year olds either
He could get to winning ways today


Selection

Option 1

£7.00 Win Bet PHANTASMAL 5/1-11/2

£1.50 Win Bet MO HENRY 6/1

£1.50 Win Bet DE LITTLE ENGINE 7/1


Option 2

PHANTASMAL 5/1-11/2

Each Way


Going with Option 2
Most firms offer 4 places
Avoid Bet365 and V Chandler







Southwell 3.15

4/1 Atrafan, Momtalik, 9/2 Khazaf, Zahirah
13/2 Purple Sandpiper, 8/1 Pearl Spectre
10/1 The British Lion, 20/1 Foxrush Take Time
25/1 True Companion, 33/1 New Look
25/1 Walton Thorns, 50/1 Tellovoi.

Classified Stakes race (8f)

This is nasty kind of race
All low quality and hard to read
ATRAFAN did not appeal much
Despite winning 3 days ago
He has no Southwell form before
He is going up 2 furlongs as well
Having raced once since March
Which means he could bounce here

PURPLE SANDPIPER has 47 days off
Just 2 races in the last 14 months
He is lightly raced but is that enough ?
THE BRITISH LION flopped last time
Don't see enough positives for him

ZAHIRAH is a mare up in trip
Ran ok quite well here last time
But still has plenty to prove here
KHAZAF probably has the ability
But will stall 1 compromise him

PEARL SPECTRE is a 10 year old
Initially I was very tempted in him
With 3 runs in the last 24 days
But it's also 3 runs in 8 months
And he was well beaten last time
It was asking far too much though
To win a big field Lingfield handicap
He is in much calmer waters here
I can see him making the 1-2-3

MOMTALIK got the verdict
He does offer some backclass
This time last year was rated 70

Last time out
Trying to win over 8f here
Making the running from Stall 1
He ran his best race of the year



He'd be my preference
But want to stake it this way



Stop Press

ARAFAN is a  non runner

Prices now slashed



Selection

£7 Win Bet MOMTALIK 2/1

£3 Place Bet PEARL SPECTRE 2/1 

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