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Today's Racing 
  
Later noon message today
Because of an appointment

Run into some smaller fields
At least at some of the tracks

Disrupted message today
Had half an hour to edit this
Think a low stake day is best

Not sure how we will get on
Things look far different now
Than when I went for the test





Today's Best Bet


Yarmouth 3.00

MAHANAKHON POWER 4/1

Each Way


 




Preview Selections 


Cork 1.45
£7.00 Win Bet Simba Power 7/1
£3.00 Win Bet London Royal 5/2

Haydock 2.35
Albahr 8/11
Win Bet

Cork 2.55
Mi Esperanza 11/2-6/1
Each Way

Yarmouth 3.00
Mahanakhon Power 4/1
Each Way

Cork 4.35
£9 Win Bet Praying Mantis 2/1-9/4
£1 Win Bet Drummond Warrior 7/1 (Betfair)

Hamilton 5.45
£5 Win Bet War Of Clans 5/1-11/2
£5 Place Bet Stronsay 11/10-1/1






Yesterday's Review       
  

Solid results from yesterday
Just the one sting in the tail
El Picaro the best bet in 2nd
Drifted badly don't know why
He ran really well in second
Got the negatives all beaten
Done by an unraced gamble
The trainer of the fto winner
Last had an unraced winner
Over 7f or more back in 2015
He was 0-34 with them since
Has a 1-76 record since 2005
So that came from left field
We ran into a decent horse
Which sort of spoilt the day
Started with a decent winner
Siannes Star paid over 9/2
Had 2 races that broke level
Pearl of Qatar another winner
The main bet in the last race
Did not run leaving a part bet
Overall it was not a bad effort
Had the best bet got up to win
Would have been much better
But it only takes one to spoil it
This one an unraced gamble
  



PROFILES & PREVIEWS 

  


Cork 1.45

15/8 Stalingrad, 5/2 Cooper's Hawk, 8/1 London Royal
8/1 No Browsin, Spanish Class, 10/1 Simba Power
14/1 Curraheen Princess, 20/1 Kilbhin Lady, 25/1 Derugoda
33/1 Boston Rocket, Caesiere, 50/1 A Cool Case.

6f Maiden

Horses aged 3
Are twice as likely to win
Than horse aged 4

STALINGRAD is a 4 year old
There is a dilemma here
STALINGRAD is not a good age
But he has a very recent race
And could easily win on his runs

Ran his profile
As a 4yo with recent runs

June
All aged Maiden races
Any distance
Horses aged 4
Running within 8 days
Have a 0-59 record
STALINGRAD fails this angle

May to July
All aged Maiden races
Any distance
Horses aged 4
Running within 6 days
Have a 0-60 record
STALINGRAD fails this angle

Any time of year
All aged  Maiden races
Any distance
Horses aged 4
Running within 6 days
Under 11 career starts
Have a 0-88 record
STALINGRAD fails this angle

My angles hate him
Feel he has a better chance
Than the above angles suggest
But I should look elsewhere

NO BROWSIN drops in trip
On pedigree that looks wrong
Could be getting handicapped
COOPERS HAWK has 173 days off
Downgraded stables since last seen
Current trainer would be a concern
His  record ignoring hunter chases
His runners absent over 25 days
Have a miserable 0-87 record so far
COOPERS HAWK is too risky

SPANISH CLASS ran 2 runs
Not convinced he's done enough

LONDON ROYAL has 1 run
Decent debut in a big Cork field

SIMBA POWER has 2 runs
Can argue he could be risky
As he gets a handicap mark today
But felt he ran well last time out

My angles oppose STALINGRAD
Hope that is the right decision

LONDON ROYAL each way
Could be the right play here
But with 1 run and under 4/1
Not sure the each way is safe
 
Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SIMBA POWER 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet LONDON ROYAL 5/2







Haydock 2.35

6/4 Albahr, 9/2 King Of York, 8/1 Tartan Chief
8/1 Tropez Power, 10/1 Box To Box, 14/1 Whitefeathersfall
16/1 San Francisco Bay, 16/1 Tuddenham Green, Vaynor, 
20/1 Prophesise, Vince Lombardi, 33/1 Just Another.

7f Novice

ALBAHR is odds on 10/11
But feel he should win this race
Finished 3rd on his York debut
But failed a big draw stat there
Was drawn on the wide outside 
Feel that run has to be upgraded

Talking of draw statistics
Haydock 7f races since 2004
Show horses with under 2 runs
Drawn 7 or higher are just 1-70
The only winner an odds on hotpot
WHITEFEATHERSFALL fails this
Don't like his draw in stall 12 here
TARTAN CHIEF also fails that angle
KING OF YORK has no experience
TROPAZ POWER unraced as well
Far from sure to stay this far on debut

ALBAHR should be able to win this

Price has shortened since I type it


Selection

ALBAHR 8/11

Win Bet







Cork 2.55

9/2 White Lavender, 11/2 Screen Siren
6/1 Mi Esperanza, Mrs Bouquet, 13/2 Dancin Inthestreet
7/1 Chocquinto, 8/1 Maggie Thunder, 12/1 Grammata
12/1 Rosie Bassett, Roxette, 14/1 Goodnight Girl.
 
5f Handicap for fillies

These races are rare

WHITE LAVENDER is rejected
She has only had 1 career run
And has the widest stall as well
DANCIN INTHESTREET is a 4yo
Seems popular in the market
But she is a 4yo absent 242 days
Combined with 10st 1lbs weight
That seems a difficult combination
SCREEN SIRE might win this
But a lightly raced 3 year old
Running off bottomweight as well
May find some better older horses
GOODNIGHT GIRL is rejected
She is a 6yo with a long absence
GRAMMATA also faces an absence
MAGGIE THUNDER may lack class

CHOCQUINTO won last time 
This looks a much stronger race
ROXETTE ran too badly last week
ROSIE BASSETT the same problem

MI ESPERANZA is shortlistable
 
MISS BOUQUET could win this
My only reservation about her
She's raced just once in 89 days
She has plenty of weight as well
That combination may hurt her

Selection

MI ESPERANZA 11/2-6/1

Each Way






Yarmouth 3.00

11/4 Critique, 4/1 Flying Standard
9/2 Go On Gal 11/2 Mahanakhon Power, 8/1 Hidden Pearl, 
12/1 Closing Show, 16/1 Glencoe Boy, 20/1 Windrush Song
25/1 Bummble Berry, 50/1 Percy Toplis.

Handicap 12f

MAHANAKHON POWER

Fittest Profile

Topweight

Like him each way

FLYING STANDARD is a danger
But not convincing sire stats
Starspangledbanner turf runners 
Have a 0-11 record over 1m 3f +
CLOSING SHOW inexperienced
And had a poor run last time out
HIDDEN PEARL is an older mare
She's raced once in 7 months
WINDRUSH SONG absent too long

There are not many safe options
GO ON GAL won last time out
But very exposed and at 40/1
Could not bank on a repeat run

CRITIQUE is a potential winner
If he handles his debut on grass

MAHANAKHON POWER a 4yo
Still has time to improve again
Should be able to go close here

Selection

MAHANAKHON POWER 4/1

Each Way







Cork 4.35

11/4 Praying Mantis, 5/1 Drogheda Dave, 7/1 Jm Barrie
8/1 Majestic Matriarch, 10/1 Legendre, 14/1 Dream Katcher
14/1 She's In The Game, 16/1 Fit For Function, Lapilli
16/1 Mulzamm, Qaabil, 20/1 Golden Days, Lisabetta
22/1 Corballis Flyer, 28/1 Nigg Bay, 33/1 Drummond Warrior
33/1  Jazz Dreamers, Stormy Jenn, 40/1 Duncannon Power
50/1 Wiggles.

7f Handicap

PRAYING MANTIS

Has the fittest profile
Comfortable win 3 days ago
Career best figures last time
Should be able to win again
Even dropping down in trip

Several others look wrong

FIT FOR FUNCTION drawn 20
Has a 10lbs claimer riding too
LEGENDRE is absent too long
QAABIL is underraced from 5f
LAPILLI is running low figures
MAJESTIC MONARCH is a filly
She's raced once in 138 days
Not keen in such a big field

JM BARRIE has a chance
But just 1 run since April 21
The selection has 3 runs since
 
DRUMMOND WARRIOR
Has been gambled into 10/1
After yesterday going to save

Selection

£9 Win Bet PRAYING MANTIS 2/1-9/4

£1 Win Bet DRUMMOND WARRIOR 9/1-10/1








Hamilton 5.45

7/2 Hard Solution, 5/1 Kilconquhar, 6/1 Firmdecisions
6/1 War Of Clans, 6/1 Niagara, 13/2 Stronsay
10/1 Alessandro Allori 10/1 Epeius, 14/1 Alsvinder
14/1 Building Year 20/1 Gulland Rock, 25/1 Jessie Allan
50/1 I'll Be Good, 100/1 Bob's Oss.
 
Amateur Riders Handicap 6f
 
HARD SOLUTION won 8 days ago
Been unlucky with the draw today
 
2016 2017 2018 1019
Hamilton 6f races
Horses drawn 11 or more
Have a 1-73 record since then
HARD SOLUTION is rejected drawn 13
BUILDING YEAR badly drawn in 14
Seems underraced this season too

GULLAND ROCK is 10 years old
Hardly safe dropping down from 8f
And having a 46 day absence as well

Recent runs are best
You could argue crucial

13 Past renewals 
12 of the 13 winners
Ran within the last 15 days
 
Horses absent more than 15 days
Have a 1-74 record in this race

GULLAND ROCK fails this angle
EPEIUS absent 53 days also does

ALSVINDER also fails this statistic
We could overlook his 22 day break
But he is an 8yo from a 5f race
Horses from 5f races
Aged 6 or more are 0-9 in this
Horses from 5f races
Absent more than 6 days are 0-21
He is the only trip jumper here
The jockey has a 0-71 record too

I'LL BE GOOD makes no appeal
JESSIE ALLEN ran yesterday
Beaten to far and may withdraw
ALESSANDRO ALLORI down 3f
Has an unacceptable profile here
BOB'S OSS is badly underraced

FIRMDECISIONS is 11 years old
Seems to regressing a lot now
Has a tough double figure draw

Hamilton 5f 6f 7f 8f races
Since 2011
Horses aged 8 or more
Drawn in stall 10 or higher
Have a 0-77 record in them
FIRMDECISIONS  fails this angle

NIAGRA has 5 career starts
Not ideal in an Amateur race

Amateur races in June
Run over 11f or shorter
Horses with under 8 runs
Have a 0-39 record in them
NIAGRA looks inexperienced
And short of recent runs too

KILCONQUHAR was 3rd last time
Decent recent race just 8 days ago
Does not have the best strike rate
No surprise if he were to win this
But has a lot of weight for a 4yo

Amateur riders races
Run over 5f 6f 7f
Any time of the year
Since 2002
Horses aged 4
Carrying more than 11st
Have a 0-31 record in them
KILCONQUHAR has a lot more
  
STRONSAY is down from 7f
Ran only 5 days ago over that trip
Beaten 7 lengths is a bit too far 
But may have done too much
Making the running at Catterick
Ridden by an inexperience jockey

WAR OF CLANS is a 4yo
Like all of these quite modest
But he is fit and running well
 
Selection
 
£5 Win Bet WAR OF CLANS 5/1-11/2

£5 Place Bet STRONSAY 11/10-1/1








FUTURE BETTING ANGLES       



French Open 


Quarter Finals

1/4 Iga Swaitek v  Maria Sakkari 7/2

Iga Swaitek

I need her for my novelty bet 


French Open -  Iga Swaitek 4/5
French Open - Rafa Nadal 8/11
Euro 2000 - France to win 9/2
£8.50 Win Treble

French Open - Iga Swaitek 4/5
French Open - Rafa Nadal 8/11
Euro 2000 - France to reach Semis 11/8
£1.50 Win Treble

Deliberately overstaked this 

Maria Sakkari worries me
This could be a close game

It struck me last night 
How would I feel if Swaitek lost
Then Nadal and France both won

This is a 16/1 treble

It could still all turn a bit sour
If Iga Swaitek loses this match


My solution

The £8.50 Treble returns £145.35


Another Treble

Maria Sakkari to beat Swaitek 3/1

Rafa Nadal to win the French 4/7

France to win the Euro's 9/2

This treble pays 33/1 


It would only take 30 pence

Simple a £0.30 pence win treble 

To get your full £10 stake back

And the beauty of this bet

If Sakkari does beat Swaitek
We don't need her to go on
And win the whole tournament
Leg 1 will be done and dusted


You could be more ambitious

If you have a £4.00 win treble

That would return you £138.21

The big return would still be on

It would not matter who won it

Alternatively

You could save on Swaitek 3/1 +

You may be more confident

But this feels like a banana skin

And I don't want to lose the hope
Of having a big winning treble up

So I'm going for the 33/1 treble

 
 


Saturday 

York 2.35

9/2 Oo de Lally 13/2 King's Knight 15/2 Dazzling Dan
8/1 Azano 9/1 Qaysar 9/1 Manigordo 10/1 Gifted Ruler
12/1 Baashir 12/1 Admirality 14/1 Queen's Sargent
14/1 Ebury 14/1 National League 14/1 Broken Spear 
14/1 Flying Pursuit 20/1 Golden Apollo 20/1 Ostilio
25/1 Tadleel 25/1 Troubador

7f Handicap

Got my eye on this race

Need to see decs and draw
Before we know what we have

5 Past renewals

35 Similar races elsewhere

OO DE LALLY is a 3yo

He is going to be hard to judge
I would rather he does not run
And if he does gets a bad draw

Stats are inconclusive

Similar races show

Horses aged 3
Over 3 career starts
Absent over 14 days
Have a 0-11 record in them

Currently see him
On the negative side of neutral

Similar races show
Horses aged 8 or more are 0-43
FLYING PURSUIT rejected aged 8

There are certain horses
Who have raced once this year
That look underraced in them
GOLDEN APPOLO is one
TROUBADOUR is another

GIFTED RULER is off too long

Horses from 6f races struggle

In all similar races in June
 
Horses from 6f are 2-95
Those with over 11 runs are 0-65
ADMIRALITY fails this 0-65 angle
MANIGORDO fails this 0-65 statistic

OSTILLO has too long a break
TADLEEL ran too badly last time

NATIONAL LEAGUE is a 4yo
Quite exposed for 38 days off
And lots to prove off this rating
 
Horses running within 10 days 
Need to not be beaten too far
None aged 5 or more
Were beaten over 4 lengths
EBURY didn't do enough last time
BROEKN SPEAR has some flaws
Ground looks against him as well

KINGS KNIGHT has positives
Badly draw at Chester last time
One angle he does fail here
Horses aged 4
Under 10 career starts
Running within 4 weeks
Have a 0-28 record so
They have won in May and June
Currently open minded about him 

BAASHIR fails the same angle
Just 6 career runs and 14 days off
He is on the inexperienced side

DAZZLING DAN is an exposed 5yo
Not been out for 4 weeks now
Found similar winner 14 years ago
This may not be his preferred trip

QUEENS SERGEATNT is exposed
Never won off his current rating
He is 0-11 in this class of race too

ARZANO has to defy a mark of 101
But I'd pass his profile as fine
 
QAYSA is a 6yo down in trip
Profile fine but rated 106 now
He might need a career best


Will know more tomorrow

When the declarations are made
 
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