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Race Previews

Newcastle 1.25
Southwell 5.10
Southwell 6.40
Southwell 7.40





Today's Message


For the next couple of days

Given the scheduling issues
A collapse of the Polar Vortex
Changing my normal routine
More about this in F.B. Angles



Sundays bet was a non runner

Monday there was no message
First day off in a 12 day period
Not really recovered from that


Today

Really limited choice
Going to need the run today
Nowhere near up to speed

Got decent chances
In all 4 of todays races

Find it hard to split two bets




Southwell 6.40

FANTASY KEEPER 4/1

Each Way


Southwell 7.40

DE BRUYNE HORSE 4/1

Each Way


One of these is my best bet

DE BRUYNE HORSE is my favourite
Not really sure he should be my best

FANTASY KEEPER in contrast
Faces less strength in depth
Because of that I will go with him



Today's Best Bet

Southwell 6.40

FANTASY KEEPER 4/1

Each Way





Sunday's Summary

Sunday was the latest message
Our main bet was a non runner
LIFETIME AMBITION pulled out
Overall it was a decent message
Got many races just about right
We got one or two wrong as well
Had more control than Saturday
Shame the best bet did not race
Felt we were a little bit unlucky
But we were competitive all day







PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Newcastle 1.25

6/4 Manjaam, 11/4 Ottonian, 5/1 Cooper's Cross
7/1 Sauchiehall Street, 20/1 Urban Legend
25/1 Snowy Burrows 33/1 She Got Fast
33/1 Where's The Tape 100/1 Brawny.


Jumpers Bumper

Last month

I found a system for these races
But it was a January based system
And we are now well into February

SAUCHIELHALL STREET

Would have qualified on that system
Had we still been in January

It is only February 2nd
So inclined to overlook that

SAUCHIELHALL STREET

He represents a January system
MANJAAM does a February system


February
Jumpers Bumpers
Any time of the year
Horses aged 6-7-8
Coming from a flat race
Winning that flat race
When starting under 14/1 in it
Horses with this profile
Had a solid 7-16 record

MANJAAM shares this profile

Won a 2m flat handicap last time
Did it nicely and know he stays

The only downside is the price

This does look quite warm
But there are a few weaker profiles

COOPERS CROSS is respected
But he has raced just 3 times before
Always a chance that causes problems
URBAN LEGEND has a long absence

There are dangers

SAUCHIELHALL STREET is one
I like his fitness and recent run
Not a strong enough stable sadly
But he could be worth split staking

Thats the plan

Combine two System bets
One for January
One for February


Selection

£5 Win Bet SAUCHIELHALL STREET 7/1-8/1

£5 Win Bet MANJAAM 10/11







Southwell 5.10

1/2 Carrothers, 3/1 Discomatic, 16/1 Adjourned
20/1 Drag Race, Polar Ice, Prince Abu, 33/1 Pride Day
33/1 Toscan Genius, 50/1 Beyond Infinity

8f Novice (3yo)

CARROTHERS is 2/5

DISCOMATIC is 11/4 in places

On Betfair the rest are rags

Many people myself included
Will ask the obvious question

DISCOMATIC each way at 5/2
Could be a clever burglary bet

On the negative side
He has no Southwell form
His sires runners unproven here
Just 1 runner finishing 4th at 5/1

On the positive side
He has a lot more experience
Comes from a far stronger stable
DISCOMATIC also has less time off

One factor that may help him
CARROTHERS is drawn 10/10

This is a quirky draw stat

Go back to 2005
Southwell 8f races
Any kind of race
Any class of race
Any time of year
Under 11 runners

Horses with under 5 runs
Drawn in stall 10
Have a 0-30 record in them
CARROTHERS the 31st to try

Go back to 2010
Southwell 8f races
Any kind of race
Any class of race
Any time of year
Under 11 runners
Male horses
Under 6 career runs
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-29 record
CARROTHERS also fails this

It's probably asking a lot
To get him beaten at 2/5
With an unproven horse here
But there are grounds to try

If you gave me a £10 free bet
It would be the way I'd play it

Selection

DISCOMATIC 9/4-5/2

Each Way






Southwell 6.40

7/4 Mulzim, 7/2 Mondammej
4/1 Fantasy Keeper 8/1 Duke Of Firenze
12/1 Agent Shiftwell, 14/1 Prince Of Rome
20/1 Bellevarde, Youkan, 25/1 Stake Acclaim.

5f Handicap

Class 4

Some of the lightweights
Lack enough positives to bet

YOUKAN has 2 weak runs in months
He did not do enough just 2 days ao
STAKE ACCLAIM is 9 years old
With just 3 runs in 11 months
PRINCE OF ROME is unsafe
He has never raced here before
He is exposed with 66 days absence
DUKE OF FIRENZE is 12 years old
Has to be seen as an unlikely winner
AGENT SHIFTWELL looks underraced
Having just 1 run in the last 170 days
BELLEVARDE may just back the class
Ran ok two days ago at Wolverhampton
But started 40/1 in a lower grade to this

MONDAMMEJ has 3 career starts
Seems fancied but that is a concern
I thought this statistic was interesting

Go back to 1997

Southwell
5f Handicaps
Any time of year
Any class of race

Horses aged 4
Running that season
Under 5 career starts
Have a poor 1-53 record
In fields of 5 or more
They have a 0-52 record

That's with under 5 races
MONDAMMEJ only has 3
His inexperience a worry
As none overcame it here

Because of that
Shortlisting 2 horses

MULZIM 7/4
FANTASY KEEPER 9/2-5/1

Staking dilemma's here
MULZIM is the more likely winner
But is the shortest price too

We could save on him
FANTASY KEEPER the main bet

But that does restrict other options
FANTASY KEEPER each way being one

When you consider negatives
And the lack of apparent strength
The each way bet could be the answer

Selection

FANTASY KEEPER 4/1

Each Way







Southwell 7.40

7/2 Palazzo, 4/1 Daafy, 5/1 Glory Of Paris
5/1 Mayson Mount, 6/1 De Bruyne Horse, 10/1 Al Batal
10/1 Corndavon Lad, 16/1 Dors Toyboy, 20/1 Amazon Princess
50/1 Shortbackandsides, 66/1 Carriage Clock.

7f Handicap

Competitive race

GLORY OF PARIS is a 7yo
No runs so far during 2021
CORNDAVON LAD is similar
There are a few others here
With 2 or more runs this year
Who could be a bit sharper
AMAZON PRINCESS is a filly
She is rejected with 87 days off

May be best to stay with a horse
Who have raced during 2021

Runs in 2021

1 PALAZZO
2 DE BRUYNE HORSE
3 DAAFY
3 MASON MOUNT

Similar Southwell races
Show horses aged 4
Winning last time out
Failed to follow up a win
Without at least 9 career runs
DAAFY only has 6 previous runs

The race he won at Southwell
May just have flattered him a bit

DE BRUYNE HOUSE finished 3rd
He alongside others set a fair pace
I just wonder if they went too quickly
DAAFY maybe took advantage of that
There was very little in it at the end

DE BRUYNE HORSE is interesting
Different class on his 2018 form
Clearly has had problems since

But he is only a 6yo
He has never had many chances
To get himself fully fit since 2018

He's had 19 runs since 2019
But these were interrupted
With several breaks in that time
190 day off
4 races after that
97 days off
2 races after that
52 days off
5 races after that
60 days off
5 races after that

Several of those races
Were over 8f a distance too far
All his wins and best numbers
Have been over shorter than 8f
3 of his last 6 runs were at a mile
I would forgive all his mile form

MAYSON MOUNT is a danger
I'd argue the fittest horse here

DAAFY also has to be respected

DE BRUYNE HORSE each way
Long overdue a win does appeal

Selection

DE BRUYNE HORSE 4/1

Each Way







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES





Tonight

Man United v Southampton

Had a small bet

Draw No Bet Market

Southampton 5/1

Win Bet


Partly because 5/1 is value

Partly because I need a bet
To take my mind off Salford
Who are also playing tonight !





Thought for the day


42 days to Cheltenham

53 days to the Flat Season






FBA

Where are we right now


Wednesday

Exeter is abandoned
Leicester is abandoned
Warwick inspecting today
Could be left with 2 sand cards

With some pretty nasty weather
Don't intend to commit to those
Going to start the message late

Saturday

Sandown are Inspecting today
Surely that's a very ominous sign


Because of the cards

Because of the weather

Decided to commit this column
Entirely for the next couple of days
To the weekend Irish Racing


Saturday + Sunday

Leopardstown

Dublin Festival

Two magnificent days racing

There is now enough history here

To produce some fascinating angles

Today and Tomorrow

Going to try and look at all 15 races

Get some sort of view on them all
Produce some statistics for each race

The direction of travel this week

Looks like we commit to Leopardstown

The 2 day Saturday and Sunday meeting

This column will be used for early work

Think I can do some damage there

Especially in their Handicap Hurdles

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