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No Official bet


 
Today's Racing 

 
So many small fields today
Shocking and demoralising
Not much point doing those

Cheltenham starts tomorrow
So we will have some options



4 Previews today 

Nothing particularly strong

The Sand bets are clearer
As the issues are less foggy
Just a basic midweek message

My personal choice 


Chelmsford 5.30

LILA GIRL11/2 - 6/1

Each Way

Every firm are 11/2 or 6/1
But this is a weak market
Hard to predict his price


More interested tomorrow
We can target Cheltenham 
Get back onto the account





Preview Selections

Sedgefield 2.17
Lucky Icon 4/1
Each Way

Sedgefield 3.20
Regaby 3/1
Win Bet

Chelmsford 5.00
Eight Of Diamonds 11/4-3/1
Win Bet

Chelmsford 5.30
Lila Girl 11/2/6/1
Each Way





Yesterday's Review

Only the 4 previews to review
Luttrell Lad finished in second 
Beat the favourite not enough
Anyone on the each way double
Returned staked as both placed
NATURAL COLOUR the 2nd leg
Was a rapidly finishing second 
Drifted badly waited at the back
Did not look a good ride to me
The jockey blamed a slow start
Anyone who backed her to win
Was probably a bit unlucky here
She drifted out from 5/2 to 4/1
If I had known that was her SP
We would have gone each way
Lolly Yeats was our only winner
Unfortunately prices collapsed 
Not a clue when that happened
He was 9/2 early then went 6/4 
Ended up winning the race 9/4
It was a split stake and messy
Whatever time you had the bet
You would have made a profit
Weaker markets causing havoc
Awkward day to stake it right
Maybe unlucky on the returns





PROFILES & PREVIEWS    




Sedgefield 2.17

3/1 Getaway Jewel,  4/1 Alright Marlene, Lucky Icon
11/2 Charle Brune 8/1 My Poem, 9/1 Val Mome
14/1 Danny Park 16/1 Wilhelm Vonvenster.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

Tight little handicap

Starting with a negative

October and November
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f or shorter
Since 2009

Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from a Chase
Running within 4 months
Return a 0-118 record
CHARLIE BRUNE fails this
His type seem to struggle

MY POEM is rejected
Don't want a 4yo bottomweight
Who is rated as low as 76 in this
DANNY PARK has an absence
Don't see a strong case here
WILLHELM VONVESTER a 7yo
Shown very little has an absence
ALRIGHT MARLENE is unsafe
Small trainer and 240 day absence
A trainer who has no absent winners

GETAWAY JEWEL is a 7yo
Just the one run in 216 days
Shortlisted and well treated
But will he be fit or ready here ?
 
VAL MONE has 2 runs this year
Pulled up on his chase debut
When facing a 606 day absence
Back to hurdles last time out
Not convinced he did enough
Considering he is 8 years old
Has raced just twice in 21 months

LUCKY ICON is a 7yo
He has no fitness concerns
But exposed with 30 hurdle runs
Figures are consistently modest
But this is a very modest race
He is effective in these sort of races
He has had many gaps in his form  
Not had much chance to run fit
But 3 runs now since September
May well give him the advantage
When he came from Ireland
He was very badly handicapped
Rated 133 back then in 2019
He has now dropped to only 86

Selection

LUCKY ICON 4/1

Each Way





Sedgefield 3.20

9/4 Regaby, 5/2 Celestial Sky, 11/2 Diamond Brig
6/1 Elixer, 10/1 Supreme Steel, 12/1 Whitechurch
16/1 Angel's Envy, 25/1 Scorpo, Strategic.

Handicap Chase 3m 3f

Small enough field
For any statistic to fall
Can not be confident in this race

CELESTIAL SKY is a 5 year old
He has never ran over fences

Go back to 1997
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 2f and more
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 5
Having their chase debuts
Have a 0-24 record 

Not many tried in 24 years
But none won in 24 years
CELESTIAL SKY is opposed

WHITECHURCH unseated last time
That was over hurdle starting 40/1
Not for me no chase experience
He was 40/1 in a similar grade  
STRATEGIC looks a non stayer
SCORPIO does not offer enough
SUPREME STEEL ran 6 days ago
Beaten 37 lengths is off putting

You still have to guess here
ELIXIR is safe but poor quality
This is his 30th race and no wins

ANGELS ENVY a 9yo mare 
Could easily improve enough 
Hard to know what form she's in
Especially coming from hurdles

DIAMOND BRIG the class horse
But just the 1 run in 152 days 
Beaten 41 lengths in that as well
Hard to know how ready he is
He was pushed along last time
After just 5 of 16 fences jumped

REAGBY seems quite modest
But he has won a chase before
As a 6yo with 9 chase runs
He could still improve more

Selection

REGABY 3/1

Win Bet





Chelmsford 5.00

9/4 Midgetonamission, 3/1 Eight Of Diamonds
7/2 Petal Power, 9/2 Mcqueen, 14/1 Ladymac
14/1 Who's Ur Dandy, 25/1 Birkie Girl, Ivy Rosie.

8f Nursery

Low quality here
None have won before

Highweights maybe best
Some of the low rated types
Have some pathetic figures

MIDGITONAMISSION a positive
No surprise if she can win this
She does appeal more a saver
PETAL POWER has her chance

EIGHT OF DIAMOND is topweight
Beaten 14 lengths last time out
Does leave me a bit cold here
Jockey said he had gone lame
Don't buy into that as an excuse
There may have been a better one
He was in a much classier race
And He was eased down late on

That day he met horses
Rated 65 70 67 67 56 69 65 57

Today he meets horses
Rated 54 53 49 46 53 45 45

Significant drop in class here
And given he was eased down
The losing distance exaggerated
Prior to that at Wolverhampton
Badly missed the break that day
When he had the worst draw too
Did very well to lose 1.5 lengths

He may just be better than these
Tricky connections care needed
But if everything runs their best
EIGHT OF DIAMOND would win

Selection

EIGHT OF DIAMOND 11/4 - 3/1

Win Bet




Chelmsford 5.30

4/5 Gin O'Clock, 5/1 Lila Girl, 7/1 Night Traveller
10/1 Glen Cove, 14/1 Five Wells, 16/1 Mumma Mac
20/1 City Of Life, 20/1 Octopus, 20/1 Phantasy Mac
25/1 Pretending, 33/1 Baileys Eminence, Guitar
40/1 Ahwhatadaay, Dynamic Talent, The Provenist
100/1 Ilona Tamara.

2yo Novice 7f

GIN O'CLOCK sets the standard
Racing Post Rating of 85 on debut
That was over a mile this is shorter
If he repeats that he may well win
But not convinced about that race
The favourite did not get home
It may well have been a false pace 
He had everything go his way there
Too short for me with those doubts

NIGHT TRAVELLER is resistible
She was 100/1 on her Kempton debut

LILA GIRL in contrast
Was favourite at Newmarket on hers
Backed from 6/1 into 11/4 that day
Finishing 5th there understandable
It was in a warm novice race on soft
Asking a lot to win on a Grade 1 track
Yet she was still made the favourite
May not have liked the ground there

Can she beat the favourite ?

May be the wrong question to ask

Can 3 horses beat her ?

Obviously but at 6/1 each way
With lots of circumstantial positives
Plenty of unraced and deadwood
That looks the right play in this

Selection

LILA GIRL 11/2-6/1

Each Way







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 
   
 
Nothing much to say today

Brief snapshot of Cheltenham

The shape of tomorrow's card





Cheltenham 1.10

3/1 Skatman 6/1 An Tailliur 7/1 Neon Moon 
9/1 Art Approval 11/1 Captain Blackpearl 16/1 Johnny B 
16/1 Enemenemynemo 16/1  Apple Rock  18/1 The Wrekin  
16/1 Groveman 18/1 My Bobby Dazzler 18/1 Breaking Waves
20/1 Fontana Ellissi  20/1 Asserted 20/1 Subcontinent 
22/1  Alohamora  25/1  Finisk River 28/1 Paricolor
40/1 Billingsley 50/1 Ballinslea Bridge
 
2m 5f Handicap Hurdle

Conditional Jockeys

Last years winner
Had 2 recent runs
Came here winning last time
That had not been the norm

The previous 11 winners
Were all aged 5-6-7
First time out that season
Vast majority lightly raced

So on better ground
Will we return to past trends
With seasonal debutants winning ?

Hard to know as in this years race
No seasonal debutants tomorrow
Comes from high class stables

Before last years recent returner
Horses racing within 4 weeks
Had a 0-195 record since 2001

If we go for a first time outer
NEON MOON could be the one
David Pipe as a brilliant record in this
But no seasonal debutant winner
Has won this from a maiden hurdle
There are other options to consider

If a horse running this year wins

SKATMAN might be one option
But he looks a bit on the raw side
 
ART APROVAL comes out badly 

AN TAILLIUR is another option
But he has just won 5 handicaps
You have to go back to 2005
For the last winner of this race
That came from a recent handicap
All 122 that tried this since failed
  
We may have to compromise here







Cheltenham 1.45

3/1 Magic Saint, Stolen Silver, 7/2 Editeur Du Gite
5/1 Kap Auteuil, 10/1 Bathiva, 12/1 Hatcher
16/1 Bun Doran, Fanzio, 40/1 Moon Over Germany.

2m Handicap Chase

MAGIC SAINT won this last year
Won as a 6 year old which was rare
But the race was full of youngsters
He has a tougher task this season
Bearing in mind his seasonal debut
Which was on the substandard side
I'd expect to go each way against him
 



Cheltenham 2.55
 
7/2 Balko Des Flos, 11/2 Diesel D'Allier, 6/1 Talkischeap
7/1 Back On The Lash, 15/2 Plan Of Attack, Potters Corner
8/1 Alpha Des Obeaux, 9/1 Freewheelin Dylan, 20/1 Fox Pro
20/1 Singing Banjo, Volcano, 33/1 Friends Don't Ask
50/1 Sigurd.

Cross Country

Seems competitive this year

BALKO DES FLOS the class horse
Hammered last time over hurdles
Only 20 days recovery time here
His official rating hard to ignore
But significant doubts about him
POTTERS CORNER is so similar
Comes here thrashed last time
ALPHA DES OBEAUX now 11
Normally needs his first few runs

Hopefully there is a better option
Safer each way bet that will stay
Or it may have to be a split stake

Cheltenham 3.30

5/4 Gelino Bello 11/4 Off Your Rocco  5/1 Blazing Khal
15/2 Kayf Hernando 11/1 Current Mood 14/1 Glencassley 
100/1 Kihavah 

Graded Novice Hurdle

On pure achievements

OFF OUR ROCCO stands out

GELINO BELLO is favourite
Based on what he might do

Hard to split the two of them
BLAZING KHAL is respected
Don't think he is out of this
Will be a race for good staking




Cheltenham 4.00
 
7/1 City Derby 7/1 Brorson 8/1 Samba Dancer
11/1 Howdyalikemenow 11/1 Skippin Court 12/1 Maninsane
12/1 Percy's Word 12/1 Vocal Duke 12/1  Kavanaghs Cross
14/1 Castel Gandolfo 14/1 Sashenka  14/1 Byzantine Empire
14/1 Belgoprince 18/1 Swagman 20/1 Flamenco De Kerser
201 Mc Alpine 20/1 Just The Man 22/1 Kalyptra 
22/1 Longacre Square 25/1 Urabamba
  

Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m

Last 2 winners of this 33/1 33/1
So open minded about the race

Last time out figures suggest
This is open with no stand outs

Will probably comes down to
How many negatives are there

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