7 Previews
0 Bet Today 


No Staked Bet


Decided nothing is suitable
Going to wait until tomorrow

 




Today's Message    
  

Heavy technical message  

Draconian Staking today

5 Softer races

2 Big field handicaps


Decided neither of the handicaps
Offered good enough bets to stake
The problem with the softer races
There are a lot of shorter prices

Staking today is very cautious

Almost French style betting
Coupling 2 horses in many races

Would like to go through the card
Getting returns back in every race
But that may be a bit too ambitious


The Cross Country
 
Is an option for a split stake bet  

Easysland 10/11 is a strategic saver 
Some Neck 10/1 my best alternative 

But decided for various reasons
To stake this bet with more safety


Cheltenham 3.40

£5 Win Bet Easysland 10/11 

£5 Place Bet Some Neck 2/1 
 
That safety first strategy
Makes it inappropriate for a bet


The Bumper is fascinating
Again staked limiting risks


Cheltenham 4.50

£6.00 Win Bet Sir Gerhard 2/1

£4.00 Win Bet Kilcruit 6/4


Produces a safer short priced bet
Again not suitable for a staked bet

The same pattern emerges

In a lot of the softer races today

A Message that backs off a bet

Aiming for returns in most races

This strategy will not suit everyone
 
More a day to consolidate returns

And be more aggressive tomorrow






Today's Best Bet 
  

Cheltenham 3.40

£5 Win Bet EASYSLAND 10/11 

£5 Place Bet SOME NECK  2/1 



Won't suit everyone

If you like more red meat

You could go with a win bet

Some Neck to win at 101

Easysland as the saver too

But officially it's win + place








Cheltenham Selections 

 
Cheltenham 1.20
£6.50 Win Bet Gaillard Du Mesnil 2/1  
£3.50 Win Bet Bob Olinger 7/4 -15/8


Cheltenham 1.55
Without the Favourite   
£6.50 Win Bet -Fiddlerontheroof 10/1 
£3.50 Win Bet -The Big Breakaway 7/4 


Cheltenham 2.30
£1.25 Each Way - Tea Clipper 50/1 
£1.25 Each Way - Saint Sonnett 40/1
£1.00 Win Bet Blue Sari 10/1
£4.00 Place Bet Grand Roi 11/8 (5 Place mkt)
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6


Cheltenham 3.05
£5 Win Bet - Chacun Pour Soi 4/5-10/11 
£5 Place Bet - Put The Kettle On 1/1 (4 Place mkt)

 
Cheltenham 3.40
£5 Win Bet Easysland  10/11 
£5 Place Bet Some Neck 2/1

Cheltenham 4.15 
£5 Win Bet Entoucas 7/1-8/1
£5 Place Bet Embittered 1/1

Cheltenham 4.50
£6.00 Win Bet Sir Gerhard 2/1
£4.00 Win Bet Kilcruit 6/4






Generic Statistics

Running Total

11 Bets
1 Wins
10 Losers

Cheltenham 2.30 - Boreham Bill 20/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Sayo 33/1 
Cheltenham 2.30 - Blue Sari 16/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Monte Cristo 12/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Burbank 40/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Garo De Juilley 50/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Heaven Help Us 25/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Sneaky Getaway 25/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Our Power 33/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Dans Le Vent 33/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Nelson River 50/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Craigneiche 12/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Witness Protection 25/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Palmers Hill 25/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Shang Tang 25/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Shakem Up'Arry 25/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Botox Has 12/1
Cheltenham 2.30 - Janika 25/1
 
Cheltenham 4.15 - Western Miller 33/1
Cheltenham 4.15 - Bun Doran 251
Cheltenham 4.15 - Us And Them 16/1
Cheltenham 4.15 - Or Jaune De Somoza 25/1
Cheltenham 4.15 - Sky Pirate 7/1
Cheltenham 4.15 - Duc Des Genievres 20/1 





Yesterday's Review

Overall feel we performed well 
Previews went P L W W L L W
Not grumbling given 3 winners
Even with the main bet losing
We split staked in the Supreme 
Saved on the winner no damage
But hands were tied in the Arkle 
And nothing back from the split
CEPAGE finished well into 4th 
I was astonished he got placed
Just looked completely beaten  
But nothing was finishing better
Feel that was a surprise bonus
Disappointed a Generic won it
I did not fancy Vintage Clouds
But you could do with hindsight
Second in the race 2 years ago
Last year his last 3 prep races
Were all at Haydock on heavy
Was not fresh enough last year
I can see that now he has won 
Wish he hadn't for the generics
CEPAGE though doubled stakes
HONEYSUCKLE is the Champion
Short priced winner did it nicely
Never really fancied her rivals
CONCERTISTA was touched off
Caught late finishing just second
CABOT CLIFFS was out in front
Expected hoping he may steal it
In the end got caught and faded
The saver finished into second 
Hope some saved on place only
I did say I preferred that strategy
But it was not customer friendly
Officially it goes down as a loser
GALVIN won the last race at 7/2
We backed him back in January
Did not smell right for a few days
Couldn't see why he drifted out
But it was a good end to the day



  

PROFILES & PREVIEWS



 
Cheltenham 1.20

6/4 Bob Olinger, 5/2 Gaillard Du Mesnil
3/1 Bravemansgame, 12/1 Bear Ghylls, Keskonrisk
33/1 Does He Know, 100/1 Optimise Prime.

Ballymore Hurdle

Grade 1 over  2m 5f

Small field 

All 5 and 6 year olds

Past winners
Had the following runs
5 6 7 6 9 4 8 4 5 3 8 4 11 9
Only the 2010 winner had < 4 runs

KESKONRISK has 3 career runs
Just 2 hurdle runs he is vulnerable
 
Horses aged 6

Have won the last 7 renewals

GAILLARD DU MESNIL is a 5yo
All his serious rivals 6 year old
That may be his disadvantage
But he has a more recent race

Much will depend on this issue

BOB OLINGER with 63 days off

BEAR GHYLLS with 66 days off

BRAVEMANSGAME with 78 days 

BEAR GHYLLS has 66 days off
Comes from a small English yard

BRAVEMANSGAME off 78 days  
Paul Nicholls is talking him up
But no runs during 2021 so far
And comes from a bad trial race

The record of 6 year olds
Absent more than 53 days in this
Is better for horses with 3 runs
Only the 2011 winner had 4 runs
BRAVEMANSGAME has 4 races

BRAVEMANSGAME may win
But history clearly shows us
You want to be with the Irish


Cheltenham Festival
Grade 1 hurdle races 
Run since 2013

Paul Nicholls is 0-36
W P Mullins is 17-144

That illustrates the power divide 
Would rather stay with Irish horses


BOB OLINGER 

My original fancy for this race
But he is much shorter now

GAILLARD DU MESNIL a 5yo
Has better breeding statistics
Has a smaller field to negotiate
Than most past 5yo runners
And with the ground softening
I'd more inclined to split stake
On the Irish not the English

May sound a bit radical
But you could bet both

My own strategy

£6 Win Bet GAILLARD DU MESNIL 2/1
£4 Win Bet BOB OLINGER 6/4

GAILLARD DU MESNIL therefore
Becomes the selection around 4/5
Money back if Bob Olinger wins it

I'm happy with that
As I get the two big Irish stables

Using Betfair
Will allow you to increase prices
Bob Olinger is 2.9 and more
Gaillard Du Mesnil is 3.05
We are effectively coupling them


Selection

£6.50 Win Bet GAILLARD DU MESNIL 2/1 +

£3.50 Win Bet  BOB OLINGER 7/4 -15/8






Cheltenham 1.55

2/5 Monkfish, 13/2 The Big Breakaway
9/1 Eklat De Rire, 10/1 Sporting John
20/1 Dickie Diver, 25/1 Fiddlerontheroof.
 
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

Formerly the RSA Chase

With an odds on star favourite
Taking on only 5 other horses
Our hands are really tied here
 
Previous winners
Had the following career runs

12 9 16 10 13 8 8 11 9 11 11
12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9

Every winner had 8 + runs

ECLAT DE RIRE has 4 runs
Half as many as past winners
Hard to make a case for him
Against such a strong favourite

DICKIE DIVER also has 4 runs
But  just 1 previous chase run
Looks much to raw to take this

The last 20 winners
Had the following Chase starts
3 3 4 5 2 3 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
None have won with 1 chase start
DICKIE DIVER fails this

SPORTING JOHN has 2 chase runs
Only Don Poli won with 2 chase runs 
He's raced just once in 126 days
Only had 2 runs this season as well
19 of the last 21 winners had more
He is not the best age group either

THE BIG BREAKAWAY is a 6yo
He has two strikes against him

Horses aged 6
Have a poor 1-45 record since 1998
We had a 6yo winner in 2015
But overall this age is weak

THE BIG BREAKAWAY off 81 days  

Only 3 previous winners
Won when absent over 53 days
None have won absent 77 + days
THE BIG BREAKAWAY fails that
 
But there are only 6 runners
And most angles are forgivable
I have more against a few others
Than I have against him

Horses aged 7 are best
Won 17 of the last 22 renewals
 
Best Profile
Horses aged 7yo-8yo
8-18 lifetime starts
3-4-5 previous chase runs
3 or more runs that season
Running within 76 days

MONKFISH has this profile
FIDDLERONTHEROOF does too

MONKFISH

Should win
But what can we do at 2/5

Have to play
In one of the Novelty markets
Going with this split stake bet 


Selection

Without the favourite  

£6.50 Win Bet - FIDDLERONTHEROOF 10/1 

£3.50 Win Bet - THE BIG BREAKAWAY 2/1 






Cheltenham 2.30

6/1 Grand Roi, 7/1 Koshari, 9/1 Blue Sari
9/1 Craigneiche, 11/1 Guard Your Dreams, 12/1 Monte Cristo
12/1 Thomas Darby, 14/1 Botox Has, 16/1 Birchdale
20/1 Dysart Diamond, Sneaky Getaway, 25/1 Boreham Bill
25/1 Heaven Help Us, Palmers Hill, Witness Protection
28/1 Janika, Shang Tang, 33/1 Dans Le Vent, Saint Sonnet
33/1 Shakem Up'Arry, 33/1 Tea Clipper, 40/1 Sayo
50/1 Garo De Juilley, 50/1 Our Power, 66/1 Burbank
66/1 Nelson River.

Coral Cup
  
Bearing this angle in mind

Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Hurdles since 2013 
Number of Hurdle runs

Coral Cup winners had 7 8 6 8 8 2 9 9 
County Hurdle winners 3 18 9 17 6 9 6 5 
Pertempts Hurdle winners 12 9 7 6 7 7 6 6
Martin Pipe winners had 11 8 5 5 7 3 4 5
 
Combined winners hurdle runs

7 7 12 3 11 8 6 8 8 2 9 9 18 9 17 6 
9 6 5 9 7 6 7 7 6 6 8 5 5 7 3 4 5

This shows a massive recent bias
To lightly raced hurdlers since 2013
That's what I am looking for here

The following horses

Fail Generic Statistics
 
Boreham Bill 20/1
Sayo 33/1 
Blue Sari 16/1
Monte Cristo 12/1
Burbank 40/1
Garo De Juilley 50/1
Heaven Help Us 25/1
Sneaky Getaway 25/1
Our Power 33/1
Dans Le Vent 33/1
Nelson River 50/1
Craigneiche 12/1
Witness Protection 25/1
Palmers Hill 25/1
Shang Tang 25/1
Shakem Up'Arry 25/1
Botox Has 12/1
Janika 25/1

CRAIGNEICHE fails a generic
He seems to be quite popular 

CRAIGNEICHE is a 7yo
He fails the following angle
Horses from Listed or Graded races
Absent over 6 weeks are 0-109
CRAIGNEICHE fails this statistic
But he only just fails this by 11 days
Would not hold that against him

Another angle against him
Looking at festival handicaps
No horses aged 7 or more
Has won with under 5 races
In any festival handicap since 2008
All 26 that tried were beaten 
The winner or this race in 2008
Was a 7yo who had 5 career runs
But he had more hurdle experience
Just felt his profile was too raw

Looking at the remainder
Horses coming from a Chase
Have a 0-45 record since 2003
SAINT SONNET fails this angle

DYSART DIAMOND is a mare
Not for me going up in trip
TEA CLIPPER is not safe
More questions than positives
 
THOMAS DARBY has topweight
Difficult task defying that weight
Especially with 1 run in 130 days

Horses from Listed or Graded races
Aged 8 or more have a 0-72 record
Absent over 6 weeks are 0-109
THOMAS DARBY fails these angles

GRAND ROI fails big angles
But he only just fails them

Horse aged 5 
Over 7 career starts 
Have a 0-83 record 
GRAND ROI fails this angle
With just 9 runs I'd overlook this

Horses from Listed or Graded races
Absent over 6 weeks are 0-109
GRAND ROI also fails this statistic
But he only fails it by 3 days

Horses from 2m 3f or shorter 
With 11st 3lbs or more are 0-60
GRAND ROI fails this statistic
Overall just too many question marks

BOTOX HAS is a 5yo 
Horse aged 5 
Over 7 career starts 
Have a 0-83 record  
BOTOX HAS fails this angle
But he only has 8 career runs
So I would see that as forgivable
But breeding stats make him risky

MONTE CRISTO is a 5yo
He fails generics stats for 2 reasons
He has 1 more run than ideal
He started 25/1 or more last time
Again I find both angles forgivable
  
KOSHARI is a 9yo
Joint oldest horse in the race
He drops down from a 3m race
Horses from 2m 6f or more
Have a 0-88 record since 2005
KOSHARI fails this 0-88 statistic

BIRCHDALE is not easy to read
Coming from a Jumpers bumper
Going to keep him on the shortlist
Because he is still lightly raced
He was 8th in this race last season
But has not jumped a hurdle since
Running in 2 chases and a bumper

This is interesting

Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class 
Since 1998
Horses aged 7 or more
Who did not come from a hurdle race
Have a 0-152 record since 1998
BIRCHDALE fails this statistic
SNEAKY GETAWAY fails this too
That keeps both off the staking

GUARD YOUR DREAMS is a 5yo
He steps up from a 2m Handicap
Shortlistable on that profile
As he is very lightly raced
And not unlike the 2009 winner

The last 8 winners 
Had 5-12 career runs
Had 9 or fewer hurdle runs
Running within 88 days
Coming from 2m 5f or less
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Coming from a hurdle race

3 horses not ruled out on this profile

THOMAS DARBY 
BOTOX HAS
GRAND ROI
 
GUARD YOUR DREAMS 10/1
Possibly the most positives
But from an English stable
A horse going up 5f in trip
 
Finding it hard to commit to one
My instinct is clearly telling me
GRAND ROI whilst not without flaws
Should be a place saver in the race
And that we should split stake this

BLUE SARI is a generic failure
But he can play a £1 saver role
Running 39 days ago is perfect
That day he had major problems
He had 11st 5lbs to carry there
On the back of 370 days off as well

Found quite an obscure angle

It's the reverse angle
Of the stat Birchdale fails

Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class 
Since 1998
Horses aged 6
Who did not come from a hurdle  
Under 20 career starts
Absent more than 4 weeks
Coming from Class 2 or lower
Have a very decent 4-14 record

The 2002 winner of this 
Among the 4 that this profile 
And whilst some time ago
The 2 horses that match this
Are at least massive prices

TEA CLIPPER 40/1-50/1
SAINT SOMMET 33/1-40/1

Rather than go with my other option
Which was Guard Your Dreams to win

Split staking this race as follows

 
Selection

£1.25 Each Way TEA CLIPPER 50/1

£1.25 Each Way SAINT SONNET 40/1

£1.00 Win Bet BLUE SARI 10/1

£4.00 Place Bet GRAND ROI 11/8 (5 Places)

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6







Cheltenham 3.05

4/5 Chacun Pour Soi, 8/1 Nube Negra, Politologue
9/1 Put The Kettle On, 12/1 First Flow, 14/1 Sceau Royal
16/1 Cilaos Emery, 20/1 Rouge Vif, 25/1 Greaneteen
25/1  Notebook.

Queen Mother 

Champion Chase

Grade 1 Chase over 2m

CHACUM POUR SOI

Has 5lbs or more in hand
But has no Cheltenham form 

PUT THE KETTLE ON
Won the Arkle last season
Still only rated 156 though

Official Ratings of winners

165 175 170 159 170 171 169
179 164 160 165 186 170
The lowest rated winner 160
That 156 rating feels a bit low
But not sure that's too relevant
And he could be a place role 

Past winners
Had the following Chase starts
19 12 7 22 16 9 11 7 7 9 13 12 8 9

None of them had under 7 runs

NUBA NEGRA only has 5 chases
Looks on the inexperienced side

He also has just 1 run this season 
No horses aged 7 or younger
Have won with 1 run this season
NUBA NEGRA faces this problem

CIALOS EMERY with 6 chase runs
Also looks quite inexperienced

POLITOLOGUE won last year
No reason why he cant win aged 10
It did look a soft renewal last year

FIRST FLOW is unproven here
Could run well but not safe enough
I don't want two horses on staking
When neither have Cheltenham form

The favourite looks the winner
But going to split stake this race

Selection

£5 Win CHACUM POUR SOI 4/5-10/11

£5 Place PUT THE KETTLE ON 1/1 (4 Place Market)







Cheltenham 3.40

4/5 Easysland, 9/2 Tiger Roll, 10/1 Some Neck
12/1 Balko Des Flos, 14/1 Alpha Des Obeaux
16/1 Le Breuil, 20/1 Kingswell Theatre
25/1 Hogan's Height, 33/1 Defi Des Carres
33/1 Out Sam, 40/1 Kings Temptation
66/1 Artic Pearl, 66/1  Vivas.
 
Cross Country

EASYSLAND won last year

He looks the best horse here

When I last looked at the race
I wanted him as the saver bet
Because of the last 12 months

Last year when unsuitably young
He still managed to win this race
 
Did that set him back as a 6-7yo
We can not know that for sure 
But he has ran once in 12 months
He flopped badly in that at 8/11 
Why has he not been seen more ?

If you back Easysland
You have no evidence whatsoever
That he is the same horse as 2020 

But he probably is
And probably will win this

But why risk him at odds on
When he has that to prove

My 1st choice in a split stake
Was sadly not declared to run

Don't see many safe alternatives

TIGER ROLL has much to prove
Had 3 poor runs since last years race

ALPHA DES OBEAUX is struggling
Has not beaten any horse in 4 runs
LE BREUIL is only a small horse
He has no Cross Country form 
KINGSWELL THEATER is a 12yo
Absent too long to consider here
HOGANS HEIGHT brings doubts
Just 1 pulled up run in 12 months
And coming back just 25 days later
BALKO DES FLOS is running badly
Never been in this kind of race

Horses in the past
Coming from a handicap chase
That was not a cross country
Running within 5 months
Have a 0-69 record in this race
LE BREUIL fails this angle
OUT SAM fails this as well
ALPHA DES OBEAUX fails this
DEFI DES CARRES fails this too

SOME NECK won here in December
Had a prep run over hurdles last time
The 2010 2011 2016 2019 winners
All prepped over hurdles last time
Not a bad option with the favourite
There have been times in the past
When I've questioned his jumping
And his character and fortitude too
So I don't see him as bomb proof

I like two options here

Option 1

£5 Win Bet SOME NECK 10/1
£5 Win Bet EASYSLAND 4/5-10/11

Option 2

£5 Place Bet SOME NECK 7/4-2/1
£5 Win Bet EASYSLAND 4/5-10/11

Personally

I prefer the second option
Less rewarding but is safer

Final Selection

£5 Win Bet EASYSLAND 10/11

£5 Place Bet SOME NECK 2/1







Cheltenham 4.15

6/1 Embittered, 13/2 Entoucas, 7/1 Sky Pirate
7/1 Zanza, 12/1 Chosen Mate, Ibleo, 16/1 Amoola Gol
16/1 Moonlighter, Us And Them, 20/1 Duc Des Genievres
20/1 Glen Forsa, On The Slopes, Sizing Pottsie
25/1 Ashutor, 25/1 Bun Doran, 25/1 Not That Fuisse,
25/1 Or Jaune De Somoza, 33/1 Capuccimix
33/1 Western Miller.
 
Grand Annual

Generic Statistics
Take out similar types
The older and exposed
 
Not many just six

Generic failures

Western Miller 33/1
Bun Doran 251
Us And Them 16/1
Or Jaune De Somoza 25/1
Sky Pirate 7/1
Duc Des Genievres 20/1 

CAPUCCIMIX looks beatable
Would be lowest rated in years
NOT THAT FUISSE  is unsafe
Needs a career best to win it
Having had 2 sand prep race
 
ON THE SLOPES is a 7 year old
No chase runs since November
Raced just once in 124 days
 
Horses with 1 run in 3 months
Carrying 10st 10lbs or less
Have a 0-54 record in this race
ON THE SLOPES fails this stat
ASHUTOR also fails this angle

ASHUTOR looks unsafe anyway
Well beaten 17 days ago in a Novice

ZANZA is absent 95 days
Uncomfortably long for a 7yo
Not a negative but not 1st choice

SIZING POTSIE has topweight
Tough ask after a poor last run

CHOSEN MATE won this last year
Higher in the weights this season
Not in the same form this year
And ridden by a claiming jockey
Claimers are 1-67 in this handicap

GLEN FORSA does not stand out
With 67 days off and a tough mark
AMOOLA GOLD is  slowly improving
Finds himself on a career high mark
In a class he is unproven in so far
Having raced just once in 116 days

IBLEO is on a hat trick here
Tough to defy 11st 8lbs weight
Having twice risen in the handicap

Horses aged 8 or more
Winning last time out
Have a modest 1-53 record
Those with 10st 3lbs + were 0-42
IBLEO fails this 0-42 statistic
MOONLIGHTER also fails this


Joseph O'Brien

Trains the market leaders

EMBITTERED has 4 chase runs
ENTOUCAS has 5 chase runs
  
Recent winners
Had the following Chase runs

3 29 9 11 10 11 9 4 5 20 7 
6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 

Plenty unexposed types win
Last years winner also a 7yo
Who won with just 3 chases
 
EMBITTERED is talented
Has bumped into smart horses
Placed in a County hurdle here
Proves he handles the course
And can cope in a big field too

ENTOUCAS with an extra run
Has just run a joint career best
Looks to have been laid out too

Hard to split

Doing so in this way


Selection

£5 Win Bet ENTOUCAS 7/1-8/1

£5 Place Bet EMBITTERED 1/1







Cheltenham 4.50

15/8 Kilcruit, 2/1 Sir Gerhard, 6/1 Three Stripe Life
12/1 Ramillies, 14/1 Elle Est Belle, 20/1 Grangee
25/1 Chemical Energy, I Like To Move It, Wonderwall
33/1 Cool Jet, Shearer, Super Six, 40/1 Fine Casting
100/1 Jack's A Legend, 150/1 Creggan White Hare.

Bumper

Two horses stand out

KILCRUIT
SIR GERHARD

They have for a while now
They are clear on the figures

THREE STRIPE LIFE is raw
Only had 1 previous bumper
The previous 9 winners of this  
Had 3 3 2 4 2 3 3 3 2 past races
Could not bet him with 1 run
Against the 2 market leaders

Very rare the bumper winner
Came here beaten last time out
Since 1994 those that were are 0-97
RAMILLIES was only 5th last time
ELLE EST BELLE is a 5yo mare
Asking a lot with 123 days absence
Staying with the market leaders

KILCRUIT 7/4 has the best figures
SIR GERHARD time to improve still

Ideally
I'd like to be on both horses
Possible to do that with this bet

KILCRUIT returns stakes

SIR GERARD

Becomes a 4/5 chance

With stakes back on the favourite


Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SIR GERHARD 2/1

£4.00 Win Bet KILCRUIT 6/4

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