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Today's Racing  

Welsh National day

Bit too much to cover
Ended up with 7 races
Starting with the big race


Welsh National

Chepstow 2.50

£4.50 Each Way HILL SIXTEEN 16/1 +

£1.00 Win Bet DEISA ABA 11/1-12/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6 (7)

Could have backed both each way
Would have done in any staked bet
Open race but both have positives
Doing career best figures last time


 
Been a difficult message

Blown me off course a bit

Tails wagging the dog a bit

Don't like the staking much
Had to abandon ideal stakes
Price changes forced this

Like the Welsh National work
But not so much the staking
Decided not to stake the race


My Favourite bet 


Leopardstown 2.20

SURPRISE PACKAGE 9/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


This race is the reason
The message is delayed

Half an hour ago
He was on a shortlist of 5
But not on the staking plan

Than I found one negative
Which took out the favourite
Had a relook at him on video
And the fog started to clear

Had no proper time to think
Check him out in other areas
So not going to stake him 
He is just my favourite bet


Going no bet today

Could have staked the 2.20

But it has been a bit rushed

If Surprise Package wins

It supports a later message
That's always on my mind
But no plans to change yet





Preview Selections  

Leopardstown 12.05
Gentleman Joe 9/2
Each Way

Wetherby 12.25
£8.50 Win Bet Lakota Warrior 11/4
£1.50 Win Bet Ritson7/1-15/2

Chepstow 12.30
Go Sacre Go 100/30
Each Way

Leopardstown 2.20 
Suprise Package 9/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Chepstow 2.50
£4.50 Each Way Hill Sixteen 16/1 +
£1.00 Win Bet Deise Aba 11/1-12/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6 (7)

Wolverhampton 4.10
£8.50 Win Bet Tomshalfbrother 5/1
£1.50 Win Bet Bobby On The Beat 4/1 +

Wolverhampton 4.40 
£5.00 Win Bet Aasser 1/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Saliteh 1/1






Yesterday's Review       

Not that much in it yesterday
Started badly with two losers
Good Boy Bobby won nicely
He paid for 2 losers and more
Steadied the ship at half time
King George was a 33/1 shock
We were just guessing there
Preferred 2 at  Wolverhampton
Both of them ended up placed
Sassy Rascal ran poor but 3rd
Did enough to get us a return
The staked bet won by a saver
Alexander James returned 3/1
Run at a slower muddling pace
Just not losing is often enough
If we did it was only marginally




    

PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Leopardstown 12.05

7/4 Icare Allen, 7/2 Prairie Dancer, 6/1 Gentleman Joe
8/1 The Tide Turns, 8/1 Vera Verto, 10/1 Got Bright
14/1 Brazil, Doctor Brown Bear, San Aer, 20/1 Igraine
25/1 Fascinating Shadow, 33/1 Brehon Star, 50/1 Privilege
100/1 Halcyon Spirit, 100/1 Just Jacob, 100/1 Justicialism
100/1 Man O Work, Queenie Newall, 100/1 Rock Ya Boy Ya
200/1 Black Barrel.

3yo Hurdle

Always a hot race
Will take a smart one to win

ICARE ALLEN probably is
W P Mullins and once raced

But it is a big field  
For a once raced horse
Past winner of this race
Had these lifetime races 
9 9 5 12 5 3 2 9 9 7 

None had under 3 races
ICARE ALLEN has just 1
Mullins more than capable
Of beating an angle like that
But would rather go e/way

VERA VERTO is a filly
Puts me off a bit in this quality
What bothers me more is absence
She last raced only 22 days ago
Past winners had these absences
167 149 68 125 225 143 63 68 78 30

Horses running within 4 weeks
Have a 0-65 record in this hurdle
VERA VERTO fails this 0-65 stat

THE TIDE TURNS could win
Like the profile but smells weak
Would be far shorter if fancied

Don't want to bet a once raced
GENTLEMAN JOE 4th last time
Started odds on got hampered
PRARIE DANCE finished in 2nd
Should be close between these
But the latter was fitter there
That form could be reversed 

Selection

GENTLEMAN JOE 9/2

Each Way






Wetherby 12.25

8/11 Harbour Lake, 3/1 Lakota Warrior
15/2 Ritson, 9/1 Rory And Me
25/1 Ask The Judge.

Novice Hurdle 2m

HARBOUR LAKE a 5yo
Won a hurdle on his debut
That was 59 days ago now

Given he is odds on
And has an unsafe profile
Going to look elsewhere
He fails this modest angle

December
Novice Hurdles under 3m
Horses aged 5
1 career run
1 Hurdle run
Absent over 48 days
Have a 0-28 record

LAKOTA WARRIOR is preferred
I am tempted each way 5 runners
But that could go pear shaped

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet LAKOTA WARRIOR 11/4

£1.50 Win Bet RITSON 7/1-15/2






Chepstow 12.30

2/1 Nothin To Ask, 5/2 Chavez, 4/1 Go Sacre Go
6/1 Buck's Boggle,  20/1 The Strap Man
20/1 Boltissime, 25/1 T'Araison
33/1 Hesque De L'Isle, 66/1 Sam's The Man
100/1 Kiwi Ling.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f

CHAVEZ has a long break
Happy to take him on in this
Trainer says he will improve
No hurdling experience too
BUCKS BOGGLE is similar
Just bumper form last year

NOTHING TO ASK can win
But every past winner of this
Was either a 4 or 5 year old
Those aged 6 like him 0-24
He was not very expensive
But he does set the standard

GO SACRE GO got the vote
Mainly because of his sire
Last time asked to go 2m 5f
On the back of a long absence
None from his sire have done it
He likely needed the race too
Drop in trip with a run on side
Preferred his chance to others
Staking him in a split stake

Selection

GO SACRE GO 100/30

Each Way


 
 




Leopardstown 2.20

5/1 Get My Drift, 13/2 Crowns Major
7/1 Cotteemcavennigoal, 8/1 Suprise Package
9/1 Brides Hill, 9/1 Call Me Lyreen, 9/1 Hurricane Cliff
10/1 Sea Ducor, 12/1 Fastorslow, 12/1 Palace Rock
16/1 Falak, 18/1 Bythesametoken, 22/1 Ena Baie
22/1 Patience Patience, 28/1 Future Proof, Tudor City
33/1 For Everyone, 40/1 Pearl Of The West.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

Not easy to sort this

Dislike the 3 topweights

Fastorslow 12/1
Call Me Lyreen 12/1
Sea Ducor 10/1
 
These have long absences
Has not been a great race
For absences or a big weight

Neither has it been suitable
For the experienced horses
Those with over 16 career runs
They have a nasty 1-75 record
This takes out another 5 horses
Falak - Tudor City - Bythesametoken
Pearl Of The West - Future Proof

11 Past winners

10 had the following profile

Male horses 
Aged under 8
Under 17 career starts
Running within 10 weeks
When beaten <  21 lengths 
That leaves a shortlist of 5

GET MY DRIFT
CROWN'S MAJOR
COTTEEMCAVENNIGOAL
SURPRISE PACKAGE
PALACE ROCK

All are positives
Prefer to ignore the 4yo's
Only one has won this race
He had a featherweight that day 
PALACE ROCK rejected aged 4
He could be on the bounce here
CROWNS MAJOR also out a 4yo

GET MY DRIFT is a 5yo  
He has 11st 3lbs in this
Horses aged 5
With 10st 10lbs or more
Are 0-12 in this race
Whilst that is forgivable
He has raced once this year

December
Similar Handicap Hurdles
Horses aged 5
Over 4 hurdle starts
Just 1 run this season
Carrying 10st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-41 record in them
GET MY DRIFT fails this stat

COTTEEMCAVENNIGOAL 
See him as a positive
But a small stable a worry
With no wins in months

SURPRISE PACKAGE a 5yo
Ran 9 days ago over 2m 4f

Ran his profile

It is neutral
Statistically in the dark

But I see positives
And 5 places available


Selection

SURPRISE PACKAGE 9/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5





Chepstow 2.50

9/2 Secret Reprieve, 7/1 The Big Dog
8/1 Highland Hunter, 9/1 Hold That Taught
11/1 Iwilldoit, 12/1 Deise Aba, 14/1 Elegant Escape
14/1 Mighty Thunder, Native River, 16/1 Discordantly
16/1 Hill Sixteen, Potters Corner, 18/1 Ramses De Teillee
20/1 Eva's Oskar, 25/1 Achille, 25/1 Captain Drake
25/1 Colorado Doc, Truckers Lodge, 28/1 Kimberlite Candy
33/1 Mac Tottie.
 
Welsh Grand National

SECRET REPRIEVE  

Won the race last year
Not been seen since

The shortest price horse
With the longest absence
Having not ran in 352 days

Worth bearing in mind
The last 10 winners of this
Had at least 2 Prep races

This is an interesting angle

Handicaps over 3m 3f +
Listed and Graded class
Any time of year
Horses with under 16 runs
Absent more than 84 days
Return a 0-113 record in them

SECRET REPRIEVE fails this
Alongside other absence stats
Win lose of draw his absence
Makes him unacceptable here


Horses with 1 run this year

The last to win was in 2009

They are 0-83 since then
 
13 Horses have this problem
They can only be negatives
If they fail other statistics too

No winner with 1 run that season
Has won with more than 11st 3lbs
All 39 that tried since 1997 failed
NATIVE RIVER fails this 11st 12lbs

Go back to 1998
Horses with over 10 chase runs
Having just 1 run this season
Return a 0-59 record in this race
The following horses fail this

NATIVE RIVER
ELEGANT ESCAPE
KIMBERLITE CANDY
ACHILLE
DISCORDANTLY

Horses with 1 run this season
Having over 10 lifetime starts
Carrying more than 10st 8lbs
I find a 0-62 record since 1997
The following horses fail this 

NATIVE RIVER
ELEGANT ESCAPE
TRUCKERS LODGE
KIMBERLITE CANDY
ACHILLE
DISCORDANTLY
MIGHTY THUNDER
HIGHLAND HUNTER

Go back to 1998
Horses with 10 or more chases  
Carrying more than 11st weight
Have a winless 0-58 record
The following horses fail this
NATIVE RIVER
ELEGANT ESCAPE

Go back to 2003
Horses who last time out
Were beaten over 12 lengths 
Have a 0-105 record in this race
The following horses fail this

NATIVE RIVER
ELEGANT ESCAPE 
TRUCKERS LODGE
KIMBERLITE CANDY
MIGHTY THUNDER  
ACHILLE
DISCORDANTLY 
CAPTAIN DRAKE 

COLORADO DOC also fails this
Beaten 24 lengths last time out
Runners by his sire Dr Massini
Running in Listed/Graded races
Over 3m 1f and more are 0-32

Horses running within 19 days
Have a 0-55 record since 1997
EVA'S OSCAR fails this statistic
Not safe enough from a Novice
Non won in decades from one
He has won 3 times here before

POTTERS CORNER is an 11yo
One concern he ran 17 days ago
Horses running within 19 days
Have a 0-55 record since 1997
He did win this race back in 2019
But not the same horse now
Racing in Cross Country Chases
And Veterans chases these days

Past renewals show us
Horses aged 10 or more
Running within 31 days
Have a 0-47 record in this race
POTTERS CORNER fails this
As do the following horses too

NATIVE RIVER
ACHILLE
COLORADO DOC
 
IWILLDOIT has 1 run this season
Not ideal he also fails this angle
 
The last 20 renewals
Had the following chase runs
5 9 9 25 8 17 17 7 5 15
4 10 9 4 4 19 7 24 8 14
They all had at least 4 runs

IWILLDOIT has only had 3
Feel that's a vulnerable profile
When its combined with 1 run
In the previous 8 months
  
MAC TOTTIE is an 8 year old
Do not see enough positives
Comes here after a fall last time
Not proven in this class either

HIGHLAND HUNTER is an 8yo
Fails just the one angle earlier
Based on just 1 run this year
Only fails that stat by a pound
Not enough to rule him out
Needed the run last time out
Not ruled out but prefer others

RAMSES DE TEILLEE is a 9yo
Passed my main angles in this
His chances have improved
By the weights not going up
Finished 2nd in this race 2018
If I look at his type in this race
Exposed horses aged 9 or more
There is a modest 3-108 record
They won off 138 132 and 140
RAMSES DE TEILLEE rated 146
Has a higher rating than all 3

Horses aged 9 or more
Official Ratings of 141 or more
Have a modest 2-74 record
The 2019 winner managed it
But he was far less exposed
Had a shorter absence as well
The only winner before that
Was 24 years ago back in 1997
No horse aged 9 or more
Have won this rated 146 or more
All 40 that tried were beaten in it
Could run very well but overall
His aged exposure and rating
Steer me towards some others

HOLD THAT TAUGHT is a 6yo
He has only had 8 career runs
He has had 5 chase runs now
Secret Reprieve won last year
He became the first horse in it
To win having under 10 races
He was a year older as a 7yo
HOLD THAT TAUGHT younger
Tries to become only the 2nd
To take this with 9 or less runs
Could not rule him out doing it
But he has just 1 run this year
The last 10 winners had more 
Horse aged 6 won this 4 times
With 16 19 10 15 lifetime runs
HOLD THAT TAUGHT with 8
That and just 1 run this year
Give him plenty to prove here
When the last 10 had more

THE BIG DOG is an 8yo
Ran last time over hurdles
Beaten 31 lengths not ideal
Not too helpful statistically
But held up in a massive field 
Was never put into the race 
It probably was a prep race
No surprise if he won or lost 
Needs to be close to his best
Tough handicap mark of 147 
Hammered in both recent runs 
Shortlistable on his positives
Could have made him a saver

DEISA ABA has every chance
He is an 8yo with positives 
Prepped over 3m 5f last time
Would rather not have that
But it has been done before
It was a lifetime best figure too
That said if you trust his trainer
In this class you normally lose
But has to be at least a saver

HILL SIXTEEN is an 8 year old
Back to form 2nd in the Becher
Many say he will stay all day long
But he has not proven that yet
But I think he should get home
And you can get 7 places too
This may take a career best  
But it's the same for most of them
His new trainer could be a plus
He has only had him for 2 races
Career best R.P.Rating last time
And he only has 12 chase starts
Both horses on the staking plan
Come on the back of career bests
 
Selection

£4.50 Each Way HILL SIXTEEN 16/1 +

£1.00 Win Bet DEISA ABA 11/1-12/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6 (7)






Wolverhampton 4.10

3/1 Blazing Hot, 6/1 Bobby On The Beat
8/1 Closing Bell, Frosted Angel, 8/1 Tomshalfbrother
10/1 Barrington, 12/1 Cometh The Man
12/1 Daring Guest, 12/1 Daysaq, 16/1 Mr Pc
25/1 Sir Hector, You're Cool.
 
6f Handicap

BLAZING HOT is a 4yo
He won a recent 5f race

Won't be surprised if he wins
But his profile is questionable

December
6f Handicaps
Class 6 races
Horses aged 4
Coming from 5f races
Running within 15 days
Have a 0-35 record in them

Don't want to commit to him
Looking for an e/w alternative

DARING GUEST is underraced
CLOSING BELL not like a winner
As a 3yo dropping down from 8f
DAYSAQ is absent too long
FROSTED ANGEL is a 3yo filly
She is dropping down from 7f

November and December
Similar races in this grade
Fillies aged 3
Dropping from 7f
Under 11 career starts
Running within a month
Return a 0-70 record
FROSTED ANGEL fails this
Some won earlier in year
But drawn 1 she is risky
CLOSING BELL also fails this
SIR HECTOR is running poorly
COMETH THE MAN is up in trip
Bottomweight not scoring well
Have to question his class

BARRINGTOM may pop up
But he last won back in 2018
In fields of 8 or more he is 0-36

Shortlist

BOBBY ON THE BEAT 
TOMSHALFBROTHER

Wanted to go each way
But prices are shortening

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet TOMSHALFBROTHER 4/1-7/1

£1.50 Win Bet BOBBY ON THE BEAT 7/1





Wolverhampton 4.40

2/1 Aasser, 6/1 Chequer Square, 8/1 Al Ameen
8/1 Cityjet, Clement Danes, Saliteh, 12/1 Janaat
12/1 Miss Candy, 16/1 North Lincoln, 20/1 Krypton
25/1 Cabeza De Llave, 33/1 Rosie Bobbie
50/1 Shot To The Heart.

2yo Novice 6f

December races like this
Show fillies are only 1-96
Males look the best option
CLEMENT DANES is a filly
Can not have her on debut
JANAAT a filly has some form
Getting placed is more likely

Go back to 2006
Wolverhampton 6f races
Open to both sexes

Unraced 2 year olds
Drawn in stall 10 or higher
Have a 0-51 record in them
AL AMEEN fails this drawn 12
CITYJET also fails this too

NORTH LINCOLN is unraced
He looks an unlikely winner
CABEZA DE LLAVE has 2 runs
Starting 100/1 and 66/1 in them
Not enough positives with him

CHEQUER SQUARE an option
Would not be a surprise winner

AASSER offers a little bit more
Offers the best numbers in this
Going to split this win and place
SALITEH is there as a place bet 
She is a filly but has experience
And excuses for some of her runs
Last time was a decent handicap

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet AASSER 1/1

£5.00 Place Bet SALITEH 1/1

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