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Today's Message

 
Last message of this week
Hardly a penetrating message
It feels a little bit too subdued
Won't be repeating yesterday


Derrinstown Derby Trial

Leopardstown 3.15

BOLSHOI BALLET 13/8- 7/4

Win Bet 


My angles think he will win

Find myself in the position
Don't want to bet him today
And not for the Derby either
But there is a compromise

Future Betting Angles later
Suggests a different strategy
Kill 2 birds with 1 stone bet


In terms of today's best bet

Felt a lot of temptation
To go with an each way double

Bolshoi Ballet looks a good fit
Jeroboam in the 1.45 could be

But in the end
Don't want to bother with that


Best bet 

Runs in the 1000 Guineas trial

Hoping it can make up for

A message that lacks punch





Today's Best Bet

Leopardstown 2.45

£8 Win Bet FANTASY LADY 4/1
 
£2 Win Bet MY GENERATION 4/1





Preview Selections  

Leopardstown 1.45
Jeroboam 2/1
Win Bet

Plumpton 2.38
Soarlikeaneagle 100/30
Win Bet
 
Leopardstown 2.45 
£8 Win Bet Fantasy Lady 4/1
£2 Win Bet  My Generation 4/1

Leopardstown 3.15
Bolshoi Ballet 7/4
Win Bet 

Ludlow 4.20
Rapid Flight 6/4 
Win Bet

Leopardstown 4.45
Macadam's Rock 5/1
Each Way







Yesterday's Review

Fortune favoured the brave
Which doesn't come naturally
Went for a big priced main bet
RIVER NYMPH was beautiful
In the end he won very easily
Overdue a top class Saturday 
So obviously highly pleasing 
We finished up P L P W W L L
One of two annoying previews
Got the Tara Mill race so wrong
Feel the race came too quickly
Perhaps a rest pattern failure
We broke level on the Swinton
My statistics if they could talk
Would be annoyed with staking
They completely nailed the race
Made my best bet a place saver 
They would say  too defensive
Perhaps that staking was timid
An obsessive not lose strategy
When Copperless won easily
And we only broke level there
That staking had to be wrong
Saturdays are judged on bets
This time we landed a big one






PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Leopardstown 1.45

7/4 Jeroboam, 9/4 Eaglefield
4/1 Emilie Gray 13/2 Yulong De Legend, 8/1 Baldomero
10/1 The Aul Dubliner, 20/1 Bay Power, 33/1 Motheerah
100/1 Spring Magic, Twentybore, 200/1 Elite Oak.
 
3yo Maiden 7f

EAGLEFIELD has been backed

Had his first ever run 4 days ago 
Feels a worryingly quick comeback

Go back 20 years

Maiden races on turf
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses with 1 run
Coming back within 4 days
Have a poor 1-65 record
That winner was a filly
EAGLEFIELD is a gelding

He is drawn 11 of 11 too
That is not the best draw
Don't want to get hung up on it
As all the big guns have high draws
But he has the worst draw of all

On that statistic
Want to look elsewhere

BALDOMERO could pop up
But no clear positives for him
  
YULONG DE LEGEND an option
Low figures from this years debut
Tough task at the Curragh drawn 26 
Watched that run and not convinced
Just didn't win me over enough
Came off the bridle a bit too soon

EMILIE GRAY is a filly
Bit disappointing at Cork last time
No draw excuses on the straight track
She will need to improve from that

JEROBOAM has 4 runs
Sets the standard so far
But has not delivered yet

Watching them all last time
JEROBOAM looked the best option

Selection

JEROBOAM 2/1

Win Bet





Plumpton 2.38

6/4 Bob Backus, 7/2 Soarlikeaneagle, 5/1 Tommie Beau
6/1 Queen Among Kings, 9/1 King Cool, 12/1 Manhattan Bullet
14/1 Jappeloup, 50/1 Givehimhisdew, 100/1 Steel The China.

Handicap Hurdle 3m 1f

Some of these don't look ready
Some look short of what's needed
JAPPLELOUP is running low figures
KING COOL does not look fit or ready
QUEEM AMONG KINGS is too risky
She is a mare hammered 8 days ago

MANHATTAN BULLET is very raw
Do not see enough positives here

Two types win this

Younger improvers won twice

Established types mainly 9 year olds 
Who have now won the last 4 renewals

BOB BACKUS is lightly raced
Won last time and should go well

TOMMIE BEAU is lightly raced
Don't as keen on him with 6 runs
When coming from just short of 20f
Having to carry topweight as well

May Handicap Hurdles
Run over 3m 1f or more
Horses with under 8 runs
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-25 record in them
TOMMIE BEAU fails this angle

May Handicap Hurdles
Run over 3m or more
Horses with under 8 runs
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Running within 7 weeks
Carrying 11st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-50 record in this
TOMMIE BEAU fails this angle

SOARLIKEANEAGLE is a 9yo
Won his first race last time out
Having look very modest before
But he is well handicapped now
Perfect age and the sort of profile
That has won this race many times

Selection

SOARLIKEANEAGLE 100/30

Win Bet






Leopardstown 2.45

4/1 Acanella, Joan Of Arc, 5/1 Fantasy Lady
6/1 Sense Of Style, Shandra, 7/1 My Generation
12/1 Climate, 14/1 More Beautiful, Thinking Of You
25/1 Hazel, 33/1 Flirting Bridge.

Irish 1000 Guineas trial

Bit of a guessing game
We have 3 horses running
Who have raced just once

CLIMATE 
ACANELLA
SHANDRA

Recent renewals of this
Only 1 winner had 1 race
That was one of Aidan's
It has and can be done
But I would prefer more

Had there been just 1
We could be more confident
But 3 horses having 1 run 
Clearly makes it more likely

Horses who last time out
Were beaten 6 + lengths
Have a 0-23 record in this
HAZEL fails this and sire stats
Several outsiders also fail it

MY GENERATION fails it too
Beaten 11 lengths last time
But she was badly hampered
She would have gone close
So I would ignore this statistic
And she has been laid out here

SENSE OF STYLE is respected
What puts me off her chance
Comes from a good trial race
But she started only 66/1 in that

MORE BEAUTIFUL also ran there
She was  only a 28/1 to win as well

 
JOAN OF ARC could go well
Comes from a good trial race 
She was drawn 15 of 15 there
Drifted badly in the betting too
JOAN OF ARC had excuses there
But no sure about stall 10 here

This is a quirky draw statistic

Go back to 2012

Leopardstown 
Every race under 9f
Run in Class 3 or higher
Mix horses with under 6 runs
Drawn 10 or higher
There is a 0-69 record
JOAN OF ARC fits the draw stat
 
FANTASY LADY is a positive

Disappointed on her comeback run
But she was badly ridden that day
Made her a negative that day as well

Dark Angel her sire
Has bred 8f winners in this class
And some on soft ground as well
But the absence was against her
Felt it was asking too much last time
Today that problem is removed

MY GENERATION looks the saver

Selection

£8 Win Bet FANTASY LADY 4/1
 
£2 Win Bet MY GENERATION 4/1







Leopardstown 3.15

5/4 Mac Swiney, 13/8 Bolshoi Ballet
13/2 Taipan 8/1 Lough Derg, 14/1 Team Of Firsts
16/1 Southern Lights, 20/1 Fernando Vichi
100/1 Wexford Soil.

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial

Ante post Derby betting

Bolshoi Ballet 7/1
Mac Swiney 11/1
Taipan 40/1
Lough Derg 100/1

MAC SWINEY has his seasonal debut
Most past winners had run this season
Highly regarded heavily promoted
Many feel he will be the Derby winner
He may be but that is in the future

MAC SWINEY has 6 runs
That is a bit exposed first time out
Win lose or draw it's not the norm

Statistically

BOLSHOI BALLET is a better fit
TAIPAN  is a better fit

The last 11 renewals show

Horses from the Ballysax
Have won 9 of these races
Horses that ran in that race
Beaten under 2 lengths in it
Have a strong 8-17 record

There were 7 horses running
Who won the Ballysax last time
They finished W W W 6 W W W 
BOLSHOI BALLET is another

TAIPAN comes from that race
Should not rule him out either
LOUGH DERG also ran there
He is the O'Brien 2nd string
 
BOLSHOI BALLET looks best
Convincing win in the Ballysax
From the 7 horses winning there
6 came out and won this as well

Selection

BOLSHOI BALLET 7/4

Win Bet






Ludlow 4.20

4/6 Bellatrixsa, 7/4 Rapid Flight
8/1 In Our Dreams, 40/1 Annual Flavour
40/1 Family Pot.

Novice Hurdle 2m 5f

Looks like a match

BELLATRIXSA is a 4yo filly
She has just won a juvenile hurdle
That was over 2 miles
She is stepping up 5f today

Fillies aged 4
Do not have a great record

Novice Hurdles in May
Run over 2m 2f and further
4yo Fillies have a 0-19 record

If we extend that range

January to August
Novice Hurdles over 2m 2f +
Fillies aged 4
Absent more than 17 days
Return a 0-99 record in them

BELLATRIXSA fails this statistic
She has 47 days off the track

RAPID FLIGHT is older
Not entirely convincing as a profile
But at the prices looks the bet

Selection

RAPID FLIGHT 6/4-74

Win Bet






Leopardstown 4.45

4/1 Sir William Bruce, 5/1 Sassified, 6/1 Britzka
6/1 Macadam's Rock, 10/1 Los Andes, 12/1 Iowa
12/1 Lunar Power, 12/1Snowy Owl 16/1 Dunmain Power
16/1Ebasari, 20/1 Druk, Earl Of Tyrone 25/1 Supposedtobe
33/1 Coolcullen.

3yo Handicap 12f


Quality race

Number of runners
Could be important here

12f Handicaps 
Run in  May for 3 year olds
With over 13 runners in them
Show horses with under 4 runs
Running this season
Have a 0-40 record

SIR WILLIAM BRUCE fails this
EBASARI also has this problem
COOLCULLEN fails this too
DUNMAIN POWER also fails it

If we get non runners
And a field of under 13 runners
This angle will be null and void
But not keen on these anyway
Don't see any as safe enough

LUNAR POWER looks wrong
His sires runners over 12f or more
On softer ground have a 0-29 record

BRITZKA has a bad draw
That may compromise his chance
SNOWY OWL a 50/1 chance last time
Makes no appeal going up 4 furlongs
DRUK should fine a couple better
SUPPOSEDTOBE looks wrong
Figures question his class
LOS ANDES has to carry topweight
Having raced once this season
EARL OF TYRONE has been backed
But unplaced in a maiden last time
Could not match him to any winners

IOWA is a dangerous floater
Feel he has a legitimate chance

SASSIFIED is a positive too
I dislike his sire in class over 12f
My breeding stats have passed him

MACADAMS ROCK is lightly raced
Luck in running he should go close

Selection

MACADAMS ROCK 5/1

Each Way





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 



 
Next week


Monday - No Message 

Tuesday - Normal day


Wednesday to Friday
 
York May Meeting


Plans to cover most of this
Do a better job than Chester
This track used to scare me
Now I understand the draw
Actually like previewing there


Target race

Undecided yet

Saturday

Lockinge Stakes at Newbury
Will just not be a suitable race
Palace Pier will be around 10/11
Not a race I can do much with
Will probably make him a saver

Sunday

French 2000 Guineas

Want a crack at this race
But won't be a target race


Midweek Target
 
But there is a race at York
On Wednesday I may target
  


Wednesday May 12th
 
York 2.10

Churchill Tyres Handicap

5/1 Zarzyni 10/1 Woven 10/1 Staxton
10/1 Roulston Scar 10/1 May Sonic 10/1 Gulliver
11/1 Bielsa 12/1 Danzan 12/1 Barbill 12/1 Aberama Gold
12/1 Streamline 12/1 Soldier's Minute 12/1 Mr Lupton
14/1 Muscika 14/1 Danzeno 14/1 Citron Major
14/1 Brian The Snail 14/1 Embour 14/1 Manigordo
14/1 Magical Spirit 16/1 Fortamour 18/1 Punchbowl Flyer
18/1 Rayong 18/1 Major Jumbo 20/1 Dave Dexter
20/1 Shallow Hal 20/1 Hyperfocus 20/1 Hey Jonesy
50/1 Zargun

After the Victoria Cup 
Got the taste blood in my mouth 
Want another big field handicap
See if we can get another winner

This has always been a race I like
The favourite may be our way in
 
ZARZYNI 5/1 

He is a 4 year old
His last race was over 5f
That was 38 days ago now

Will attack him on a few angles
This one being a good example


Go back to 1998
6f Turf Handicaps 
Class 2 grade
Any time of year
Horses aged 4 and older
Coming from a 5f race
Run in Class 2 or lower 
Running this season
But absent over 30 days
Have a 0-158 record in them

ZARZYNI will fail this statistic
One that has lasted 23 years

Division 2 

Now done and dusted

Play off positions 4th to 7th

Salford finished in 8th place

Very disappointing season

Lets not talk about it today




Classic Trials

Epsom Derby
Epsom Oaks


We are in peak trial season  
THIRD REALM won yesterday 
A nice enough performance
He did not do much wrong

He now heads to the Derby
Trades around 12/1 on Betfair
Did not convince everybody

The problem is
The 3 year olds look weak
 
Inclined to leave these races
Until as late as the declarations

Recent Epsom Derby 's
Have had some shock winners
That includes last years at 25/1
Who raced just 7 days before

Think it would be a mistake
To chase all the dead ends
So neither of the classics
Are on my radar right now

Having said that
 
BOLSHOI BALLET runs today
If he wins as I feel he should
He could blow the market apart
 
This horse is growing on me

Had excuses on his 2yo debut
Hacked up on his second start

Had excuses on his 3rd start
Went from a maiden to a Group 1
When only having 8 days absence
That was in France on heavy ground

Won the Ballysax on 4th start

Today he has his 5th career start

If he wins todays Derrinstown Trial
He will trade considerably shorter


BOLSHOI BALLET 

Don't really want to bet him today

Don't want to bet him for the Derby

But there is a bet I am going to have

Seems to make a lot of sense
And reduces the risk of both bets


Staked to £10

BOLSHOI BALLET 

£3.50 to win today at 7/4

£6.50 to win the Derby 7/1



If he does win today

We have our £10 stake back

If he then wins the Derby
We collect another £52 as well
 
Just seems a good arrangement
And even if he does lose today
He may still have a Derby chance

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