2 Previews
0 Account Bet
1 Best Bet 





Today's Best Bet


Leicester 4.20

FORESEEABLE FUTURE  13/2-6/1 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Today's Racing

 
End of an extended run
Taking a break tomorrow

10 messages in a row
19 messages in 20 days 
Brain's telling me to stop 

Might be just 2 previews
But not going out quietly
Like both previews a lot

Both selections

Could be the best bet

Confident about both

With the usual doubts


Hamilton 2.30

MAC AILEY 6/4-13/8

Win Bet


Fittest horse
Big drop in class
Should be winning

Hamilton on soft  
Not very welcome  
For stronger bets 
When short prices

If he were to lose
It would annoy me
But I don't see that 




Leicester 4.20

FORESEEABLE FUTURE  13/2-6/1 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4


Much risker as a selection
But we are getting 4 places 

His chance on paper at least
Stands out and appeals a lot
 
He is a tricky horse though 
There are some warning signs 
He could well go off too quickly
Suffering from that a bit lately
Suspect he did it on last 2 runs

In terms of the days best

Not going with a 6/4 chance
Not at Hamilton and on soft
But confident both will win

Maybe the right plan

Bet MAC AILEY at 6/4

To get the full stakes

For Foreseeable Future

If we win at Hamilton

Can not lose on the day



 
Today's Best Bet 

Leicester 4.20
FORESEEABLE FUTURE  13/2-6/1 
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4





Preview Selections


Leicester 4.20
Foreseeable Future  13/2-6/1  
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4


Hamilton 4.30
Mac Ailey 6/4-13/8
Win Bet






Yesterday's Summary
    
Sunday had some fair results
Not with the best bet though
Grange Walk pulled up early
No idea if that was a good bet
Or whether it was a bad choice
He smacked the 4th fence hard
Within two fences he pulled up
That mistake killed his chance
Maybe the race came too soon
Maybe it was just a one off error
Either way a best bet was sunk
Message ended up P P P L L W
One of two races some prices
Were a bit too difficult to obtain
Not ideal but overall consistent
Needed a much better Sunday 
But did not have much choice
We made the best of a bad job 
But let down by the days best





 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS 
  


Leicester 4.20

7/2 Manumission, 9/2 Royal Prospect, 7/1 Foreseeable Future
7/1 Spanish Mane, 8/1 Voltaic, 10/1 Inner Circle, Winklemann
14/1 Fast Emma, 16/1 Amal, Plastic Paddy, 20/1 Global Hope
25/1 Miss Trixie, Ruby Lily, 33/1 Cammy, Fact Or Fable.

7f Handicap

Apprentice Riders

Lots of things in play here

The Draw for one
No horse has won this race
Drawn 11 or more since 2011
When the stalls renumbered

The two widest draw here
Go to horses aged 7 and 8
Leicester 7f races
Since 2004
Horses aged 6 or more
Drawn 12 or higher
Have a 0-29 record in them
Going to reject this pair
WINKLEMAN a 9yo drawn 15
INNER CIRCLE a 7yo drawn 14

FAST EMMA badly drawn in 13
Has raced once in 200 days now
She looks underraced for this

Several others do as well
Vast majority of past winners
Had several runs in the last 8 weeks
Not convinced about these either

SPANISH MANE is a mare
She has raced once in 87 days
FACT OF FABLE lacks class
One run in 83 days will not help  
CAMMY the exact same problem

MISS TRIXIE is running slowly
RUBY LILY is too inexperienced
AMAL is a 3 year old filly
Not shown enough so far
Not one of the stronger claims

PLASTIC PADDY is up in trip
Only has 6 career starts so far
Only 1 past winner of this race
Had fewer than 8 career starts
He dropped in trip not went up
Horses coming from 6f or shorter
Having under 17 career starts
Have a 0-16 record in this race
PLASTIC PADDY has this profile

He has been backed though

He is the one I fear the most

VOLTAIC an exposed 5yo
Has raced once in 80 days now
Not convinced that is enough
Especially going up in distance
His jockeys record just 1-54

GLOBAL HOPE is very exposed
Modest and not won over this far
Has not got the best of the draw
But off his mark he could go well
Feel he should be around 12/1
His 20/1 + does look a bit too big
But there are more solid options

ROYAL PROSPECT is respected
Average type won last time out
Absent over 3 weeks since a win
Should be thereabouts well drawn

MANUMISSION one of the fittest
Has to step up in distance here
Has to carry topweight as well
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Are just 1-25 in 15 past renewals

In the last 7 weeks
MANUMISSION has ran 5 times

Only 1 other horse comes close
FORESEEABLE FUTURE has 4 runs 
He looks one of the 3 fittest profiles
Well draw and does not go up in trip
He is obviously not easy to win with
But winning early on as a 2 year old
Left him badly handicapped as a 3yo
He has dropped in the handicap now

His 7f form in the summer
Placed at Doncaster in a 0-87
Other runs there and at Yarmouth
Easily good enough to win this race

Only last week at Thirsk
He placed in a 0-76 handicap

This is only a 0-60 handicap
Drop in class well drawn fit profile
We are also getting 4 places too

Last time at Thirsk
Just a hint he went off too fast

More than a hint two runs ago
He did go off too fast at Wolverhampton

Clearly a bit complicated 
Not an easy horse to win with
But his positives on paper are clear
He really should be winning this race

Plastic Paddy my personal danger



Selection

FORESEEABLE FUTURE 13/2-6/1 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Hamilton 4.30

7/4 Mac Ailey, 7/2 Tefnut, 13/2 Deconso
7/1 Selecto, 7/1 Smart Connection, 15/2 Rain Cap
12/1 Sienna Dream, 16/1 Lucky Violet
33/1 Rail Dancer.

8f Handicap

MAC AILEY can take this

Decent run 4 days ago
As last years winner had

He has the fittest profile

Runs in the last 22 days

3 Mac Ailey
2 Rail Dancer
1 Rain Cap
1 Lucky Violet
0 Deconso
0 Tefnut
0 Selecto
0 Sienna Dream
0 Smart Connection 

MAC AILEY has most recent runs

RAIL DANCER comes next
But hammered on all recent runs

TEFNUT is 2nd favourite
But she is a 4 year old filly
She drops down from 12f to 8f
She is lightly raced may improve
But since she last saw the track
MAC AILEY has raced 3 times

At this track
On soft ground as well
Those runs could be critical

SMART CONNECTION is a 4yo
He has raced once in 256 days
He looks underraced on soft
LUCKY VIOLET is 9 years old
Beaten 9 lengths 3 days ago
She did not do enough last time
SIENNA DREAM may not stay
On this ground with 34 days off

DECONSO won last time
But at 33/1 over 3 weeks ago
He is modest and beatable
Soft ground numbers weak
If he wins in my opinion
It will be because the favourite
Fails to run to the level he should

SELECTO
Probably in the same boat
Will need the favourite to flop
He could end up placed here


MAC AILEY 

He was 3rd last time

Met horses with these ratings

75 72 74 71 77 73 74 68 56

Today his opponents are rated

55 52 51 50 47 46 46 46

This is a serious drop in class

With the fittest profile onside

Selection
 
MAC AILEY 6/4-13/8

Win Bet






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  



Kerry National

Started the work on this
Have not finished it yet
But plenty of time to go 
Main midweek highlight


 
Saturdays big handicap

The Cambridgeshire

Full Statistics for this race
Included in this message

We have a warm favourite

Uncle Bryn 5/1 John Gosden

His profile is not too dissimilar
From 2019 winner Lord North 

John Gosden trains both
He will not be a negative

Much will depend on his draw
And the quality of the opposition  






Ante Post Statistics

September 25th

Newmarket 3.40pm
  
Cambridgeshire Handicap

6/1 Uncle Bryn, 14/1 Storm Damage, 14/1 Anmaat
16/1 Maydanny, 16/1 Fantastic Fox, 16/1 Royal Marine
16/1 Astro King, 16/1 Classical Wave, 20/1 Long Tradition
20/1 Dance Jupiter, 20/1 Irish Admiral, 20/1 Montather
20/1 Majestic Dawn, 20/1 Magical Morning, 25/1 Poet Of Life
25/1 Finest Sound, 25/1 Ametist, 25/1 Variyann
25/1 Anythingtoday, 25/1 Haqeeqy, 33/1 Tahitian Prince
33/1 Dejame Paso, 33/1 Zozimus, 33/1 Breath Caught
33/1 Lucander, 33/1 Raadobarg, 33/1 Raise You
33/1 Fastnet Crown, 33/1 Al Rufaa, 33/1 Bell Rock
33/1 Strait Of Hormuz, 33/1 Good Birthday, 33/1 Lord Neidin
40/1 Spirit Dancer, 40/1 Bedouin's Story, 40/1 Ascension
40/1 Raising Sand, 40/1 Accidental Agent, 40/1 Devilwala
40/1 Sir Rumi, 40/1 Royal Pleasure, 50/1 Arctic Emperor
50/1 Marie's Diamond, 50/1 Group One Power, 50/1 Bake,
50/1 Neenee's Choice, 50/1 Power of Darkness,  50/1 Chance
50/1 Quizical, 50/1 Pythagoras, 50/1 Tarroob, 50/1 Tom Collins
50/1 Indeed, 50/1 Soto Sizzler, 50/1 Power Of States, 
 
Starting with the draw

Look at those high numbers

1-2-3-4-5 in 2020 drawn in stalls 25 27 24 16 29
1-2-3-4-5 in 2019 drawn in stalls 29 15 32 28 20
1-2-3-4-5 in 2018 drawn in stalls 21 25 26 3 13
1-2-3-4-5 in 2017 drawn in stalls 29 22 13 10 33
1-2-3-4-5 in 2016 drawn in stalls 28 35 8 13 2

Not too high though
 
Every Newmarket race
Run over 2m or shorter
Since the stalls renumbered
Horses drawn 30 or higher
Have a 0-32 record since 2011 
 
2011 the stalls renumbered   
Since the record of horses 
Drawn in stalls 10 to 18
Have a winless 0-90 record
  
Horses with 27 + runs are 0-136

Horses with 24 + runs are 1-168
Those absent over 2 days are 0-165

Horses with 22 + runs
Absent more than 2 weeks are 0-126


Horses with 18 + runs

Aged 3 are 0-4
Aged 4 are 0-79
Aged 7 + are 0-63

Horses from Listed / Group races
Have a disappointing overall record 
Only the 2013 winner did it in decades

Horses from 12f or longer
Have not won in over 29 years
  
Horses from Class 4 or lower
Have not won this since 1996

Recent winners
had the following runs that year
1 4 3 6 6 8 7 4 5 7 4

Last years 40/1 shock winner
Had raced just once that year
Prior to that they all had 3 + runs
   
Horses aged 3
With over 6 runs are 4-102
Those with just 1 run in 2 months
Have a 0-29 record in this handicap

Horses aged 4
With 18 or more runs are 0-82

Horses beaten 6 lengths + last time
Have a poor 3-264 record since 1997
All 3 winners were 4 year olds

Horses aged 3
Beaten over 6 lengths are 0-36

Horses aged 5 or more 
Beaten over 6 lengths are 0-137


The only winners
Beaten over 6 lengths 
Were 4 year old winners
Who had 8-17 career runs
None lost be over 13 lengths

Horses of any age
Beaten 13 + lengths last time
Have a 0-100 record in this

Horses with 9st 6lbs or more
Have a 1-49 record since 1997
The following horses fail this

Horses Aged 5 or older
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more 
Have a 0-42 record since 1997

Only 1 past winner
Won with under 5 career starts
Lord North in 2020 had 4 runs

Horses absent more than 7 weeks
With 15 or more races were 0-48

Horses rated 94 of higher
Won 16 of the last 17 renewals
 
10 of the last 11 winners
Shared this basic profile

Male Horses
Aged 3-4-5-6-7
Raced within 100 days
8st 4lbs to 9st 9lbs
Between 5 and 26 runs
Coming from 8f to 10f
Beaten under 11 lengths
Rated between 87-107
Coming from Class 3 +  






Service Truths


Amongst the membership 

There are some big punters
   
Some higher stake members
Don't bother with staked bets
They have their own opinions
They like to use the message 
For angles and as a resource

If you are staking £500 + a bet
Service costs are so irrelevant

Knowing all our daily analysis
Can not be bought elsewhere
They see it as a great resource

They don't expect much of me  
They know stats are subjective
They know I will often be right  
But equally often be wrong too

Happy to find their own bets 
Cherry picking angles they like
What these members factor in
If I can save them just one loser
It makes a significant difference

What they also appreciate too
The style of the daily message
Shows I'm not making stuff up

All these stats are accessible
The only reason I stand alone
As the only person doing it
They take a long time to find
Easy for me with no children
Living a semi hermit lifestyle
These people live differently
So they like the daily message

Issues like access to prices

Weaker markets

Certain each Way bets 

Account restrictions

Limit on stakes

Does not affect the big punters
They have long stopped trying
What I like about these people
Never praise and never complain

Medium Sized Punters

Applies to several members
Maybe the majority are like this
The £10-50 each way size bets

They just have different needs 
What they really want to ensure
The service doesn't lose money
Bad runs are just not acceptable 
That just has to be delivered 
They want and expect highlights
The occasional big priced winner
They know losers are inevitable
They just don't want to be burnt
Maybe why I am often cautious  
They are a very important lobby
Not always able to read messages
They are the backbone of racing


Smaller Punters

Lots under a fiver a race players
Some could afford heavier stakes
But are comfortable betting less 

There are also several members  
Who just like to read messages
They love future betting angles
They like the escapism it offers

Not always about making profit 
Some like to see how results go
How stats work out in previews
What bets I get wrong and right
Why horses win and get beaten
Some see it as a comforting read

And also want some consistency 


What kind of Punter am I ?


Mixture of all 3 most of the time

I don't enjoy watching racing

During the afternoon
All my focus is on the message
Being down for the next day

Keep no more than one eye on it

Quite happily have a few little bets
Staking small between £2 and 10 

Said it before
I don't care about most of my bets
Most of them to break the boredom

My biggest bets
These are rare and hardly happen

My biggest win in the last 5 years
Was a £2000 win double 6/4 + 7/2 

That double was back in 2018

Djokovicv won Wimbledon 6/4
Spain won the Davis Cup 7/2
  
Rafa Nadal to thank for all of it

Placed that bet down in London
When I went to collect the returns

Invested £6000 of the winnings
Betting Donald Trump to win 11/8
Confident he would win he didn't
Managed to get some of it back
Because I start work daily 3am
At that stage in the early states
Trump was comfortably ahead
He traded about 2/9 at this time

May sound a reckless stake
But I very rarely go on holiday
Never have any weekends away
Not been to a resteraunt in years
The Duchess never wants either
So I'd rather not spend in those
And have a decent long term bet
A bet that I would never forget


Since that bet
Don't remember having any bet 
More than a couple of hundred 
And not too many of those either

Actually I do

Salford have cost me plenty
Know idea how much overall
But I would guess £3-4 grand

Other than that 
I hardly ever have a big bet  

What these all have in common
They are bets lasting 6 + months
 
Happy to bet hard
And on a strong opinion
But I want it drawn out ages
So I feel I have got a reward
I want a big bet to last months

Did cross my mind recently
To go for another long range bet
Australia to win the Ashes leg 1
But yet to see a second leg yet
And Australia is far too unstable
Outside factors could mess it up 

If I really like one at a fair price
May probably stake around £100 
But for every 100 bets I do have
I think 95 of these are under £30 
Care about the message more


I do try and cater for all needs
But so many different members
That might never be achieved

Big stake members are content 

The middle stake members

These are the one suffering 
With the account restrictions
Placing bets with bookmakers

That's partly why
I have shifted the staking a bit
Fewer each way bets are given

More win and place bets are
Quite often on different horses

The lower staked punters

Seem to have better price access

Many of these appreciate F.B.A

Important to keep that going
Acts as a rudder for the message
Once it is finished and included 
Takes pressure off the message 
Means at least something is there

F.B.A. has a lot of potential

But I feel it is also overrated

Go back in the last 2 years

Take out the Salford Content

The old Beautiful bet updates

There is less content than it looks
Very hard to do ante post races
Because of losing on non runners

If I was a member

FBA would frustrate me a bit

Once I send a message
I detest reading it again 
Sick to the back teeth of it
 
If I was a member reading it
Other bits would annoy me

Maybe too much narrative
Non betting content is high

"Today's Racing"

Should really be a summary  
Of what the strongest bet is

But it has other functions
That do not seem to work well

In a 6 preview message

Are their any other bets
Other than the days best bet
That look better than the rest
Does not seem to do that well
This is an area needing work

The message lacks a space

To highlight important issues

Not everybody has the time
To read through every part 

If there was a paragraph

That was non committal
Just summarising issues
It might be worth doing it

Take yesterdays message

If we had a separate place
A paragraph for these issues

Not sure what to call it

Statistical Challenges maybe

It could read like this

Listowel 1.30 - Feigh
History suggest too inexperienced

Listowel 200 - Outleigh 
Fails a 24 year Generic stat

Hamilton 2.00 - Trusty Scout
Fails a 3yo generic statistic
 
It would just be a quick snapshot

But can the message afford it
Would this be too much detail

Not sure
Can see good and bad in this

But "Todays Racing"

Needs to be more effective
 
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