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Today's Message   

It's a far quieter Sunday this week
Last Sunday the simple objective 
Was mopping up Saturday's mess 
This one is taking a bit step back

Partly as today looks very difficult 
And tomorrow is the Bank Holiday
With 8 meetings scheduled there
Have to prioritise Monday instead

So an insignificant message

Nothing stands out that much

Not going with a selection 

Message hasn't impressed me
Sandwiched between a Saturday
And the Bank Holiday tomorrow

Small stake interest bets

Aiming for a staked bet

From 8 meetings tomorrow






Preview Selection 

Navan 2.20
£6 Win Bet No Speed Limit 14/1
£2 Win Bet Conversant 4/1
£2 Win Bet Celtic Manor 5/1

Uttoxeter 3.22
£6.50 Win Bet Merry Mistress 100/30-7/2
£3.50 Win Bet Could Be Trouble 15/2-2/1

Navan 4.40
Sunniyra 9/4
Win Bet

Navan 5.15
£6 Win Bet Must Be Dreaming 15/2
£4 Win Bet  Muntahez 6/4






Yesterday's Review    
  
Account bet winner yesterday
Win bets often most rewarding 
BOLLIN NEIL won comfortably
Given a very confident ride too
Suggesting he's improving fast
He could run at Ripon Tuesday
Overall felt we we did enough
Very competitive throughout 
Had my doubts after the opener
Gladiatorial looked like winning
Matched for thousands at 1.01
But going off too fast too early
Meant he was mugged very late
Hoped that was not a bad omen
But the next race had a winner
And never got into any problems
Some each way double options
All placed in the final 3 previews
On this occasion the right choice
Given only 1 of the 3 horses won
Overall with the main bet winning
Did enough to make it a good day
 




PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Navan 2.20

3/1 Art Of Unity, Conversant, 9/1 Teddy Boy
10/1 Boughtinthedark, Equipped, 12/1 Celtic Manor
16/1 Attelboro, Gatwick Kitten, 20/1 Chica Power
20/1 Limit Long, 20/1 Mullacash Buzz, 20/1 Showmolina
20/1 Stanhope, Tullypole Annie, Zegos Surprise
25/1 Hodd's Girl, Seven Worlds, 33/1 No Speed Limit
33/1 Petite Amie, 40/1 Lord McZie, 50/1 Only Jack.

5f Handicap

Low Grade race

ART OF UNITY is drawn 24
That seems a bit too radical 

Navan 5f Handicaps
Since 2011
Horses drawn 15 +  are 1-42
Horses drawn 17 + are 0-17
Even taking out the reserves
None have won drawn so high

Navan Handicaps
Since 2011
Any class
Any distance 
Any time of year
Horses aged 6 or more
Drawn in stall 19 or higher
Once non runners taken out
Have a 0-33 record  
ART OF UNITY is rejected

Several 3 year olds in this
None of these make appeal

Go Back to 2008
May and June
Handicaps over 5f
Over 12 runners
Good or softer ground
Horses aged 3
Absent more than 9 days
Return a 0-87 record in them
Big field and soft ground
Suggests they do not cope
Opposing the 3 year olds in this

Most either have long absences
Or are lacking runs this season 
ZEGOS SURPRISE is a 3yo
Beaten 14 lengths just 2 days ago
Hardly suggests he beats his elders 
TULLYPOLE ANNIE one badly drawn
ONLY JACK a 3yo with a tough mark
That 0-87 stat suggest oppose these
ATTELBORO has been backed
Lightly raced down in distance
Didn't see as much as I needed to

Expecting an older horse to win
Some of these are also unsafe

Have not done enough recently
SEVEN WORLDS certainly hasn't
LORD MCZIE down from an 8f race
SHOWMOLIA hammered over 7f
EQUIPPED looks underraced

GATWICK KITTEH has 121 days off
Pedigree suggests he wants further
 
HODDS GIRL is a 4 year old  filly 
Just 1 run in 114 days my concern
Big weight with a profile like that

STANHOPE is well handicapped
Doubts about fitness and wellbeing
This you would be unlucky here
To lose to a 7yo with 64 days off
When coming from the inside draw

BOUGHTINTHEDARK is a mare
Topweight and 5 weeks off tough

LIMIT LONG ran badly last time  
Had excuses when badly drawn
But needed to see more promise
 
TEDDY BIT can win at his best
But seems to be off the boil now
His 5 career best figures so far
All came during Autumn months
May win but not for me right now


Shortlist

NO SPEED LIMIT 

CELTIC MANOR

CONVERSANT 

NO SPEED LIMIT could win
He has some decent figures
Don't mind he comes from a claimer
He was badly weighted in that race
Badly drawn the  time before at Naas
If he makes the running as he did there

CELTIC MANOR ticks boxes

CONVERSANT could hack up here
If his last run doesn't come too soon

Selection

£6 Win Bet NO SPEED LIMIT 14/1

£2 Win Bet CONVERSANT 4/1
 
£2 Win Bet CELTIC MANOR 5/1






Uttoxeter 3.22

7/4 Could Be Trouble, 7/2 Royal Practitioner
6/1 Let's Get Real, Merry Mistress, 7/1 Fivetotwelve
14/1 Flames Of Passion, 16/1 September Daisy
20/1 Methodtothemagic, 25/1 Lady Malarkey
66/1 Aide Memoire, Katie Kilminster.

Mares Novice Hurdle

COULD BE TROUBLE is a 6yo
She has to be in pole position
Coming her on a hat trick bid 
Has penalties as she earnt them

ROYAL PRACTITIONER an 8yo
Won on her first ever run last time
She was an 8yo debutant at 50/1
That is too risky a profile in this
Favourite fell in the race she won
Seemed a falsely run race as well
Her numbers are well behind too

LET'S GET REAL is also opposed
Beaten 51 lengths on hurdle debut
Only 18 days ago she looks too raw
FLAMES OF PASSION does as well

FIVETOTWELVE is a 7 year old
Comes from a Novice Handicap
Her 6 Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
So far score 87 96 103 92 98 103
These are not very impressive
The favourite has a 121 figure
She is not the biggest of mares
That observation and her figures
May suggest she lacks scope

MERRY MISTRESS is a 5yo
Just 1 hurdle race  over 2 miles
Surprisingly that's a good profile
Needed a better last time out run
But she made a serous mistake
Jockey lost the irons on the run in
She can be upgraded on her debut

Split Staking this race

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet MERRY MISTRESS 100/30-7/2

£3.50 Win Bet COULD BE TROUBLE 15/2-2/1





Navan 4.40

3/1 Adelisa, 7/2 Alice Kitty, Sunniyra, 5/1 Venice Biennale
6/1 White Pepper, 12/1 Annecherie, 14/1 Mother Country
18/1 Clew Bay, 20/1 Cleopatra's Needle, 33/1 Elusive Elegance
33/1 Rock On Gurkha, Special Protector, 100/1 Simply Sideways
150/1 Launch Her.

Fillies Maiden 10f

14 runners

ADELISA from Joseph
Has shown enough to win
But she is drawn 14 of 14 here

Navan 10f races
Since 2011
With under 15 runners
Show horses drawn 12 or more
Have a 0-19 record so far

Don't see a major statistical issue
But that is probably the worst draw
She has to step up in distance too
SUNNIYRA has a much better draw
And a slightly safer profile as well

ALICE KITTY has a chance
But her sires record in soft/heavy
Suggests this trip could stretch her

SUNNIYRA made improve more
Felt she was the most likely winner

Selection

SUNNIYRA 9/4

Win Bet





Navan 5.15

6/1 Must Be Dreaming, Odd Venture, 7/1 Dance Emperor
7/1 Legal Thriller, 8/1 Muntahez, 10/1 Power Of Lazarus
12/1 Extensio, 16/1 King Lenox, Siradjan, 20/1 Barometer
20/1 Divine Celt, Nailed Down, Phoenix Open, Tham Luang
22/1 Sam Missile, Scotts Honor, 25/1 Cautious Approach
25/1  Dangeroffizz, Getgo, Nuzzles, 33/1 Maunganui
33/1 Nusra, 33/1 Wish Me.

10f Handicap

Big field
Had a look at the draw

I'd be against the radical draws
THAM LUANG is drawn in stall 1
They have an awful record here

I'd also oppose the highest draws
LEGAL THRILLER too high stall 26
EXTENSIO with just 1 run this year
Looks badly drawn in stall 25 too
MAUNGANUI has a difficult draw
KING LENNOX also looks too high

Horses in this rated 45 or lower
May lack the class to take this
GETGO and WISH ME fail this
DIVINE CELT low rating + absence

POWER OF LAZARUS rated 45
Did not offer enough on on figure
This is the limit of his stamina range

Opposing the horses
Who have raced once this year
None of the following horses
Look fit or ready enough to trust

SCOTTS HONOR
DANGEROFFIZZ - SIRADJAN
NUZZLES - PHOENIX OPEN

NAILED DOW looks a non stayer
BAROMETER too inexperienced
NUSRA has the same problem
CAUTIOUS APPROACH has topweight
Mare with an absence on top of that
And has just downgraded stables
SAM MISSILE is wrong as an 8yo
DANCE EMPEROR an exposed 6yo
Has raced just once in 114 days
That and a big weight weakens him

Shortlist 

ODD VENTURE is a 4 year old
Has positives winning 11 days ago
But a 10lbs claimer rider today
May not help his chance of winning

MUNTAHEZ has been backed
Stall 20 should just be about fine
If you look at his sire Camacho
His runners over 10f or more
When the ground is soft or heavy
Running in fields of 12 or more
Have a 1-40 record just 1 winner
Safer choice for a place than win

MUST BE DREAMING is a 4yo filly
Nothing wrong with her profile here
Do we want a filly aged 4 on soft
Facing a big field on a stiff track
My angles are positive about her

Split Staking this race

£6 Win Bet MUST BE DREAMING 15/2

£4 Win Bet MUNTAHEZ 6/4

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