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Southwell 12.45
Southwell 1.45 
Southwell 2.45 
Southwell 3.15
Dundalk 4.00
Dundalk 4.30





Today's Message 


This unforgiving cold weather
Bullied the schedule this week

It's taken all weather meetings
Chelmsford today the latest one
Destroyed yesterdays message
And will cause damage tomorrow

Newbury and Warwick are both off

Naas are inspecting tomorrow

Going all out for a Saturday bet
Try to get a result out of the week

Naas may have to survive though

Had to be patient this week


Nothing looks strong enough today



The split stake bets at Dundalk
Look a little bit more interesting 

But keeping my powder dry today
Want one good price bet tomorrow






Thursday's Summary 

Total write off yesterday
Thurles passed the inspection
Snow came down afterwards
And they reversed the decision
Just a waste of time and effort 





PROFILES & PREVIEWS





Southwell 12.45

10/11 San Juan, 6/4 Comeatchoo,
6/1 Mansfield, 14/1 Andre Amar.

5f Handicap
 
COMEATCHOO is a 4yo
Seems to run every other day 
Clearly the fittest horse here

You can argue he is unproven here
Two modest runs a long time ago
On one of those his trainer said
"Was not suited by the fibresand"

That is one of the reasons why
SAN JUAN is the odds on favourite
He won a poor Classified stakes race
His rivals all rated 50 or lower there
He has raced just once in 74 days

You can frame different arguments
And make both of these look the bet
But the class horse and fittest horse
Should not be 2/1 on more in this field
He'd be my choice at the prices

Selection

COMEATCHOO 9/4

Win Bet







Southwell 1.45

2/1 Morlaix, 11/4 Black Box
3/1 Dr Jekyll, 6/1 Calculus
8/1 All Of The Lights.

Maiden Handicap (8f)

Messy little race

If you insist on proven track form
The cost of that is a long absence

If you insist on fitness in this race
The cost of that is no track form

David Simcock runs two horses 
MORLAIX has never ran here
But has had some recent races

DR JEKYLL is proven on Fibresand
But he has 358 days absence

BLACK BOX is a filly
She has a nasty 79 day absence

January February March
Class 6 handicaps
Run over 7f 8f 9f
Fillies with under 10 runs
Absent more than 35 days
Return a 0-97 record in them
Those like her aged 4 were 0-74

Going to avoid the above horses
CALCULUS is not first choice
Sold for 1k after racecourse debut

ALL OF THE LIGHTS around 5/1
Could be interesting down in trip
On the grounds that from his sire
He was running too far too early
There may be some merit in that
He was drawn 1 last time out
Not easy in a big Lingfield field
May not have got home on 4th start
He looks to have some ability
Going to stake the race this way

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet  ALL OF THE LIGHTS 11/2 -5/1

£3.50 Win Bet MORLAIX 2/1 






Southwell 2.45

11/10 Bill Cody, 5/2 Atomic Jack
5/1 Be My Sea, 5/1 Niven
66/1 Luduamf.

Handicap 2m 2f

Stamina important here

Go back to 2000
Every flat race over 2m 1f or more
Any race in any class
Any time of year
Horses Aged 9 or more
Coming from 1m 6f or shorter
Absent more than 19 days
Have a 0-47 record in them
BE MY SEA a 10yo fails this

NIVEN is an 8yo
Been in jumpers bumpers
If we look at his sire stats
Elusive Pimpernel runners
Over 1m 5f and more
Have a 0-29 record so far
None have won within 6f or this
That's not as extreme as it sounds
But a clear stamina question mark
LUDUAMF looks outclassed

BILL CODY won here last time
That was following 325 days off
He's raced just once in 12 months
Does he come here on the bounce
His sire has no winners beyond 2m
Probably wins but there are doubts

ATOMIC JACK is a positive
Another horse with a trade off
Horses winning Jumpers Bumpers
Running within 2 weeks are strong
But he has no Southwell form before
At the prices just made more appeal

Selection

ATOMIC JACK 9/4- 5/2

Win Bet





Southwell 3.15

2/1 Blackcurrent, 5/2 True Hero, 7/1 Bluella
7/1 Poppy Jag, 9/1 Essaka, 10/1 Navajo Dawn
20/1 Catapult 20/1 Secret Identity.

5f Classified Stakes

Some of these are unsafe
NAVAJO DAWN one as a 4yo filly
Who has not raced in 68 days now 
SECRET IDENTITY looks underraced

POPPY JAG an older mare
Not really convincing on recent runs

TRUE HERO has his own doubts
He is an exposed 5 year old
Having raced once in 121 days
He does have bit of  tasty backclass
But could be in danger of bouncing

Would not surprise me
If this race was one by a horse
That ran 5 days ago at Southwell
In the same 5f Handicap

BLACKCURRENT won that race
BLUELLA finished in 3rd place
ESSAKA finished back in 4th

BLACKCURRENT made all
Track maybe helped him there
Won't me much between these

ESSAKA is a 9yo
In that race just 5 days ago
She was drawn in stall 1
He had been short of recent runs
Given how old he is now
He ran a very good race there
And at 8/1 or more is overpriced

Selection

£4 Each Way BLUELLA 6/1-13/2-7/1

£2 WIn Bet ESSAKA 10/1






Dundalk 4.00

10/11 Blue Cabochon, 2/1 Zen Silence
6/1 Brother In Law, 10/1 Approbare, Falsaron
33/1 Tassel Flower, 66/1 Wonder Starelzaam
100/1 Niamh Elizabeth, 100/1 Taraaneem
200/1 Designer Cailin,  200/1 Warp Speed
200/1 Wee Pablo, 200/1 Wonder Fullbright.

5f Maiden

Rather stay with 3 year olds
Feel one of those should win
APPROBARE is 9 years old
Just 1 average run in 173 days

Joseph O'Brien a perennial menace
Runs two just to complicate things
FALSARON flopped 2 weeks ago
On his first run sine June 2020
Not keen on his profile or draw
TASSEL FLOWER doesn't offer much

BROTHER IN LAW a 4yo gelding
Has raced only twice before
Has to give lumps of weight away
To the 3yo fillies in this race
Which may be too difficult to do

BLUE CABOCHON the best horse
But is a filly with 1 run in 161 days

ZEN SILENCE arguably second best
Has raced 6 times in the same period

Decided to split stake these two

Selection

£6 Win Bet ZEN SILENCE 100/30-7/2 

£4 Win Bet BLUE CABOCHON 5/4


 


Dundalk 4.30

3/1 Melliferous, S'all Good Man, 4/1 Battle Of Benburb
4/1 Scott Lang, 7/1 Pienta, 8/1 Palace Rock
12/1 Listening Mode, Victory March, 16/1 Verini
66/1 Codger's Alley, Cousin Harry, Stoneyford Boy
150/1 Easy Breeze, Fly Till Dawn.

12f Maiden

No 3 year olds

Not many can win this

PIENTA has 91 days off
He is not certain to stay this far
S'ALL GOOD MAN is a 5yo
Hass shown enough to be respected
But stall 1 may not be any help to him
SCOTT LANG has raced just once
Ran well but he was only 33/1 there
His jockey has a very average record
When you factor in he is drawn 13
Probably a meaningless statistic
But in every one of his rides so far
He is 0-81 drawn 12 or higher
When riding outside Apprentice races
He is 0-93 when drawn 10 or more
PALACE ROCK drifting and beatable
VICTORY MARCH was 80/1 last time
Didn't do enough compared to some
LISTENING MODE is similar
VERINI is rejected on his debut

Split staking this race

Selection

£6 Win Bet BATTLE OF BENBURN 11/2-5/1

£4 Win Bet MELLIFEROUS 11/8-6/4

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